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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
10:27 PM 6/22/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
12:20 AM 3/17/2004

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Green Party/Parti Vert:
John Cowling
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Irma Devries
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Brian Innes
Robert Roth
Gary Schellenberger

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey (8.3%)
Murray Calder
Perth-Middlesex (73.6%)
Gary Schellenberger
Waterloo-Wellington (18.1%)
Lynn Myers

2000 Result/Résultats:
17,220 41.48%
10,799 26.01%
9,906 23.86%
2,656 6.40%
933 2.25%

(16/203 polls, 5867/81542 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(157/204 polls, 52091/68876 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(41/203 polls, 12810/77456 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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20/06/04 B. Stewart
Email: [hidden]
Well Perth County is definitely Conservative federally, no doubt about it. Without vote-splitting though, this riding would have been Tory every election since before WWII, even throughout the Trudeau years (with Progressive Conservative MPs Waldo Monteith, Bill Jarvis and Harry Brightwell). The only thing that could de-rail Schellenberger is the heavy voter-weight of the left-leaning Stratford that defeated former PC MPP Bert Johnson back in October. But now that "Middlesex" has been substituted for "Wellington", I see no threat from the Liberals in this riding.
10/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
As ominous foretastes go, could Gary Schellenberger be to Stephen Harper what Chris Hodgson was to Mike Harris? (And symbolically speaking, it helps that the seat's been reconfigured into Welling-tory-ton.) Doesn't help the Liberals that they're re-offering Innes; after all, Hodgson faced a rematch in 1995, and his victory margin went from 10 points to *50* points!!! While an NDP prediction is farfetched, the idea of NDP *strength* here isn't, and not just as a Sam Dinicol by-election fluke: after all, it is not so strictly a "rural conservative" seat. With its arts and blue-collar base, the city of Stratford's more than capable of being a vividly glowing island of orange within a sea of blue. However, one thing's changed to the Dippers' disfavour since the byelection, ex-NDP MPP Karen Haslam was annihilated in her bid for mayoral re-election. (Meanwhile, Dinicol was elected to council. Go figure.)
02/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Okay, who let this one loose?!?! NDP in a stauchly conservative area. PLEASE! There is nothing wrong with being optimistic for the party you favor, but lets be realistic now, shall we? The NDp are up in the polls but their support is VERY concentrated. Places like downtown Toronto, Windsor, Halifax, Vancouver, Winipeg and Vancouver Island are places where the NDP will do well. To think the NDp will win in Perth-Wellington is not just nieve, it borders on the obsurd. NDP values do not resonate with many rural voters, especially in Ontario. Conservative value do! And we have no idea where you got those numbers for the Conservatives but they are much high. People have started to talk about a conservative minority and even a conservative majority government now. So let's stop dreaming that the world will be painted orange and try to have a little less biased perspective (or at least get some up to date numbers).
01/06/04 MS
Robert Roth will win! Gary has done nothing since he won. With the NDP today at 22% and the Conservatives at 25% people wonèt vote for someone who almost never stood in the house. Although he did stand to vote for what his party told him to. Some voice for change iin Ottawa. I see no change.
28/04/04 PFR
Email: [hidden]
Gary Schellenberger won this riding last year with a divided right. Now the Tories are united and solidly behind Schellenberger. Liberals who think that they take this riding back in the mess that they are in must have just come back from happy hour.
26/04/04 Full Name
Email: [hidden]
I live in Perth Wellington and I feel that Mr.Schellenberger our Conservative candidate will win the next federal election. My reasons are that the Liberals are putting forth another tired candidate, one who could not pull out a victory when everything was going there way. The NDP dont have as strong a candidate in Roth, as they once did when they had Dinicol. Now that both the Conservatives and Alliance are together, Schellenberger should easily clinch the spot in a large margain in votes. The Liberal party should be a little concerned about the Conservatives taking away a majority government even possibly squeaking out a win.
12/04/04 RWA
It's too bad Dinicol isn't running, otherwise D Farmer's NDP prediction in this riding would get Patrick Webber off the hook for picking Pierre Ducasse in Manicouagan and become the most ridiculous NDP prediction in the country.
06/04/04 D farmer
Email: [hidden]
Gary's lucky that Dinicol isn't running. Although I think it'll be interesting to see what was brought up by Gary when he spoke about Harper in the past. Still fresh on the brain.
I anticipate an NDP second on the ballot. Liberal's have about as much voting power here as Harper does in Eastern Canada.
Nothing beats a win by default. It's good work if you can get it.
02/04/04 Pete Lucan
Email: [hidden]
I think the Conservatives will hold on to this riding. The Liberals needed a new candidate. Innes has worn the Liberal colours provincialy and federally on several occassions, but he has lost everytime. For whatever reason, he has alienated many area Liberals over the years and many stay home on voting day or vote another party. Plus, with redistribution, the riding picks up strong Tory country. The Liberals in 2003 lost Stratford due to the strong showing of the NDP. Many Stratford Liberals can't be considered "Martin" Liberals and the way Shelia Copps was treated was duly noted. That could be a factor in swinging votes to the NDP.
16/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Gary Schellenberger will win re-election. While the 2000 result show a liberal victory, the by-election in this riding was quite decisive. Red tories, who, it's argued, will vote Liberal this election, or stay home, will, in my opinion, come out to vote for old PC MP's. This riding should go to the tories by a fair margin.
15/03/04 RWA
Email: [hidden]
This riding went Tory in a byelection even with a split vote. WIth a united party, this traditonally blue seat will be won handily by Schellenberger. Incidentally, the Liberals will likely be running the same candidate who lost this riding in the byelection.
15/03/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
Dead Liberal Walking #10.
The Liberals would have polled about 41.5% if the last election had been held on the new riding boundaries, with the Alliance (23.9%) and PC's (26%) virtually splitting almost half of the vote.

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