Update/Mise à jour:
4:55 PM 12/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
1:43 PM 10/01/2006
Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Doug Beards
Christian Heritage
Carson Chisholm
Guy Lauzon
Elaine MacDonald
Tom Manley

Guy Lauzon

2004 Result/Résultats:
Guy Lauzon
Bob Kilger
Elaine MacDonald
Tom Manley

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

Authorized by the Official Agent for Tom Manley

Authorized by the Official Agent for Tom Manley

12 01 06 LJ Amundsen
Well most Greens of any note are very good lobbyists and can get what they want from government without having a seat. Unfortunately Manley does not come from this activist side of the GPC and so his support from Greens will be weak - certainly not the 3500 votes of 2004. He might get as many as 2000 of them to shift to Liberal, but, given the overall shift in the vote and Harper's sudden acceptability to Quebec, he's toast. Some fact issues in other peoples' posts;
- yes, Manley was well-organized but he had trouble understanding rules or protocols for working in committee, which made him anathema to some Greens
- no, Manley was not all that popular, his vote for the GPC leadership was almost entirely the anyone-but-Jim-Harris vote (which was big and has got bigger - pretty much anyone could run to lead that party now and win against Jim Harris)
- yes, Manley is a small businessman and has written very good material on corporate tax policy, which the Greens espoused in 2004 but not in 2006
- as you'll see in that paper, Manley was very much a "blue-green" and has much more small-business-friendly tax policy than the Conservatives do tho no one will hear about it as he runs for the Liberals
- Manley is a clumsy campaigner and shows it in his behaviour regarding the pulp and paper plant, he also tends to call activists "anarchists" apparently, which is not a great way to bring Green votes over with you
- Manley was also a major contributor to the GPC's governance projects but his work on that was almost entirely ignored. He played only a minor role in the party's internal governance crisis which lasted all through 2005
- NDP votes will therefore not switch to support a "blue-green" whereas almost any other Green could count on NDP votes to see a Green with a chance in Liberal clothes, Manley can't count on that, quite the opposite
- Manley's potential to draw Conservative votes would be much greater if he was not running against an incumbent
Bottom line: Manley's an also-ran, the incumbent will take it, the Greens won't take Manley back, and he'll return to his business or to provincial politics. (Now, is he a member of the GPO, or the Liberal Party of Ont. ?)
02 01 06 ocv
I was in the town of Finch over the New Year and saw numerous Manley signs on lawns and all other signs on what looks like private property. Granted it's a big riding and I haven't seen it all - but compared to other rural ridings, the Liberal presence was very surprising.
01 01 06 Vote NDP
Let me make one thing clear: A lot of the people I know don't like Guy Lauzon.
Let me make another thing clear: Most people in the circles I run in are either Liberal or NDP supporters.
Needless to say, these people are a minority in this riding, as my circles don't tend to include anyone from those fundamentalist churches that are popping up all over the North-West part of Cornwall or from the rural part of the riding (particularly parts of Stormont and Dundas) where not voting Tory is viewed as borderline lunacy. (Personally, I think that the opposite is true, but that's neither here nor there.)
With the bottom falling out of the scandal-ridden and gaffe-prone Liberal campaign (Surprisingly, the usually steady Liberal ship has been rocked by a more severe case of foot-in-mouth disease than Cheryl Gallant at a Southern Baptist Church or Jacques Parizeau at a town hall meeting in the ferociously separatist North Shore of Montreal Island.) and the NDP polling at between 15 and 20% nationally, expect strong NDP candidate Elaine MacDonald to win at least 15% of the vote (including the ballot I've already cast) and put another nail in the coffin of Cornwall's answer to Montreal's Jean Lapierre.
30 12 05
Greens won't follow Manley over to the Liberals and they definitely don't think he's a "nice guy". Especially after the nasty comments about the Green party that Manley personally left on the CBC election discussion boards:
"It was too easy being in the Green Party, feeling good about nice ideas. I am in the politics of action and change, not the politics of self-gratification. I can only serve fellow constituents by getting elected, otherwise it was just cheap talk"
24 12 05 El Predicto
Manley will win. Expect a fair number of former Greens to side with him (Tom was very popular in the party - probably more so than Jim Harris) and that actually means something (numerically speaking) in this riding. Besides just being a goshdarn nice guy, he's a successful businessman and smart. He works hard and has a great political pedigree. And -- oh yeah -- he's not a wuss, either -- a former Canadian Forces officer, I understand. The editorial opinion last time around was that if Tom were a candidate for any other party, he'd win. Guess what? He is. He will.
20 12 05 Robert Jones
The Liberal candidate just torpedoed his own campaign. Speaking in the riding he applauded the closing of the Cornwall Domtar plat that just put 900 out of work. Saying he was happy becasue the "air smelled better". Add that to his comments about 1.28/L gas not being expensive enough and this riding will go to Guy.
19 12 05 M.T.
We took a drive through part of the riding today, say about a dozen Tory signs, and one Green sign... Admittedly Manley is a popular guy, but not everyone who voted for him as a Green is willing to vote Liberal because of him. There isn't a chance in heck of the Liberals winning this riding, no matter who they have running for them.
15 12 05
Manley is toast. At an all candidates meeting today he announced that he was glad that Cornwall's major employer, a Domtar pulp and paper mill, was closing and laying off over 900 people because the air smelled better.
11 12 05 LM
Lauzon will win this handily. A solid record in the House and an upswing in Conservative support in Eastern Ontario easily lands this one in the Conservative column. Besides, have you not driven through the riding? Lauzon signs are everywhere compared to about five for the Liberal.
03 12 05 Red Bull
Martin showed a lot of character by coming into this riding the day after Domtar announced it was closing the local plant. Obviously this is a riding that the Liberals think they can win and with a well-spoken and thoughtful candidate like Tom Manley.
02 12 05 tcc
I think that Mr. Lauzon will be tough to beat. I am sure the local media has a number of quotes and sound bites of Mr. Manley, speaking against the Liberals during the election. It is clear, that the Liberals couldnt attract a Liberal candidate, because it is commonly felt that Mr. Lauzon will not be beat. Curious to see how they are downplaying the size of the Paul Martin's Liberals on Manley's signs. Lauzon will win by a bigger margin this time than last.
01 12 05 Robert Jones
The incumbent has done a good job of grooming the grass roots support. The Liberal nomination screw up with Tom Manely and Bill Upper has reinforced the feeling of Liberal sleaze among non Liberal voters. With the announcement of the Domtar Mill closing in Cornwall expect the Liberals to have a tough time selling their economic platform. Farming makes up the lions share of the riding. Expect farming issues and liberal inaction to be high on the election radar in this riding. My prediction Guy Lauzon will retain his seat. Tom Manley is a nice guy but has shown his principles can be compromised.
30 11 05 Craig
Manley is going to have a hard time campaigning on how great the economy is under a Liberal government now that Cornwall's major employer, Domtar, has announced that it is permanently closing. The closure of the Cornwall mill is putting almost 500 people out of work right before Christmas.
6 months ago they cut another 400 jobs, so that's 900 jobs lost in the last year.
Plus once the comments that Manley made in newspaper back in September that gas at $1.27 a litre is still too cheap get out he'll be in trouble.
27 11 05 A.S.
With Tom Manley bearing the standard, this becomes (apart from celeb hype like Deborah Coyne) the most interesting Liberal-takeback race in Ontario, less akin to recent federal campaigns than to the "Mr. Smith vs the Big Blue Machine" nature of past provincial Grit runs--in paradoxical effect, Manley's more the anti-establishment "Preston Manning Reform" candidate than his Tory opponent. And in a seat which the Liberals practically owned (aside from 1984-type Tory landslides) prior to Y2K. And weirder still, his erstwhile Green base of support in the Tory countryside is totally opposite to the Liberals' traditional Cornwall (esp. Franco-Cornwall) sourse of strength--and relative to that, it's the Tory incumbent w/the French surname! On paper, given how well Guy Lauzon did in '00 and his victory in '04, this ought to be a Tory hold--but it could also their own biting-back version of the shock they laid upon Bob Kilger...
21 11 05 WHC**2
Tom Manley's entrance into the race as a Liberal will make things close. I attended a couple of town hall debates in earlier elections where he demonstrated that he was clearly the brightest candidate with the best grasp on the issues, and was actually capable of giving thoughtful responses to questions instead of simple slogans and platitudes. I spoke to a lot of people after the debates who said they would vote for him if only he was running for a party that stood a snowball's chance... Guy Lauzon has worked hard for this riding and will be tough to beat. I expect an interesting campaign with Lauzon having the edge.
04 10 05 M. Lunn
Even if Tom Manley wins the liberal nomination, the combined Liberal-Green vote still wouldn't be enough to knock off Guy Lauzon. Besides, unlike the neighbouring MP, Gord Brown, who has been completely useless, Guy Lauzon is a very hardworking MP so incumbency this time around should give him about a five point edge which last time around Bob Kilger who was also a good MP had, so the Conservatives will likely lose some seats in Ontario elsewhere (unless their numbers improve, which could happen), it will be the close ones since they got 31.5% last time around and most polls put them between 27-33% in Ontario meaning they are only a tad lower. The only ones I can likely see them losing are Oshawa, Durham, Newmarket-Aurora (Belinda Stronach being re-elected), Niagara West-Glanbrook, Niagara Falls, Simcoe-Grey, Cambridge, and Essex, and amongst those they will probably only lose some of them, not all of them listed. Likewise the only ones I could see them gaining are Chatham-Kent-Essex, Middlesex-Kent-Lambton, Barrie, Northumberland-Quinte West, and Ottawa West-Nepean.
27 09 05 Eric Duncan
A huge stunning announcement came from this riding last week. Popular Green candidate Tom Manley announced his intentions to seek the Liberal nomination is SDSG. Manley was a big part of the federal Green Party and made the switch to stand a better chance of being elected. If he gets the nomination (which he most likely will now; many on the Liberal riding executive are supporting him), he will start one of the best campaign battles in the history of the riding against hard-working incumbent Guy Lauzon. Guy is a popular MP- he is everywhere, at every event, in every paper- and looked to be a sure bet. However, Manley will put together an excellent campaign (he has great speaking skills and is personally popular) and now has the money to run a respectable campaign. I see this being a very close campaign with Tom Manley narrowing knocking off Lauzon in one of the best and hardest-run (and closest) races in Ontario.
24 09 05 L. Anderson
"It is unlikely that any Eastern Ontario Conservative seats will fall," not.
This was conventional wisdom in early 2005. It's nonsense as of now. The factors FOR the Conservatives:
- an upsurge in avowed NDP support which will cost the Liberals some votes
- high poll numbers for the Greens which typically don't mean all that much
- anger over Gomery and perceived weakness in Martin
And against:
- subsiding of anger over Gomery and Martin perceived strong on the UN etc
- massive Liberal spending promises and good publicity with municpalities
- extremely consistent Liberal message that "we are green, we are green" to
suppress the Green vote (and cause Greens to defect, see below*)
- Belinda Stronach's defection, leaving Conservatives no good Ontario voice
- extreme internal chaos in the Green Party of Canada with no agreement on
electoral strategy, revenue sharing, or even who's in charge of policy
*ok here's below:
Tom Manley, former Deputy Leader of the Green Party of Canada, just quit to seek the Liberal nomination. Although Manley had less than 4000 votes, he was well organized enough to challenge the current (and very weak and divisive) GPC Leader Jim Harris for the leadership, nearly winning it in 2004. Manley is a prize for the Liberals: if he can win the nomination, and carry those 4000 votes with him, and attract the Prime Minister into the riding to repeat that "Liberals are Green" message, and convince the NDP voters (critical) that it's better to have a Green Liberal than any kind of Conservative, then, Manley can become at least a backbencher MP.
Under prior-to-2002 Green Party of Canada constitutional rules, Manley could have sought the nomination for the Liberals and then, if he failed, gone to the Greens and been nominated there. The Liberals now force nomination seekers to sign agreements saying they won't do that, but, they are not enforceable (at least not according to Sheila Copps who has good lawyers). And the Greens (foolishly for them) now forbid cross-memberships in other political parties (which is absurd when you consider they can't win seats and need to work through other parties to get anything done in Ottawa).
If Manley doesn't win the nomination, this seat stays Conservative because the Liberals are just too far back and obviously have no one better.
If Manley does win the nomination, then, the message this sends and the possibility for major intervention from Martin and perhaps even potential to elect a Cabinet Minister (Martin has been known to give those to floor crossers!) could cause this Conservative seat, at least, to fall. It's by no means a done deal that the Conservatives could hold this if there is a Liberal-Green alliance here.
11 05 05 Bear and Ape
If the Conservatives can take this riding last year, then they will keep this time around. It is unlikely that any Eastern Ontario Conservative seats will fall, however if one is to go back to the Liberals, then this is the one to go (due to Cornwall being more Liberal than Conservative). Don't get us wrong, we're still predicting a Conservative win here.
07 05 05 Ryan
Last time I commented on this riding I said it could go either way. I think it’s safe to say that in 2005 the Conservatives can hold this one. Last time around Lauzon defeated a long time incumbent. With Kilger not running again, it’s a wait and see game as to who the Liberals will nominate. If Lauzon could take this riding from the Liberals in 2004 before they began their decline with the Gomery inquiry, than chances are this hard working MP will keep the riding blue and become the first Tory MP to be re-elected in this riding.
07 05 05 kb
Guy has worked very hard, stood up for the issues that are important in the riding. The Liberals are having trouble finding a candidate. Lauzon again.
06 05 05 Craig
Traditionally a Liberal stronghold, Guy Lauzon pulled off a huge upset last time but it should be clear and decisive this time. Most of Eastern Ontario will be decided on moral issues such as gay marriage, and this has suddenly become prime Conservative territory on such issues. While controversial, it works in rural and small-town ridings, and their candidate falls right in line. It shouldn't be close. Predicted results: CPC 53%, LIB 31%, NDP 10%, GRN 5%.
01 05 05 Miles Lunn
Although traditionally a liberal riding, Guy Lauzon had one of the best showings in Ontario. The Anglophone constituents generally lean towards the Conservatives while with Guy Lauzon being Francophone himself, he can attract a lot of the Francophone votes which other Conservative candidates generally cannot. Considering the current polling numbers, the Conservatives should hold this one.

Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici

Provincial Index - Actualité provinciale
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Milton Chan, 1999-2005 - Email Webmaster