2:18 AM 19/01/2006

Prediction Changed
11:00 PM 22/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
Nazir Ahmad
Niki Christina Ashton
Brad Bodnar
Bev Desjarlais
Jeff Fountain
Tina Keeper

Bev Desjarlais

2004 Result:
Bev Desjarlais
Ron Evans
Bill Archer
C. David Nickarz

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

18 01 06 Gregor Burton
I think people are forgetting about the community activism, not to mention "star power" that Ms. Keeper holds. Especially in remote ridings such as Churchill, where communication isn't at the same standard as in say, Winnipeg, name-recognition and personal profile will play a huge part in securing this seat for the Liberals.
Chalk this one up as a Liberal win.
17 01 06 Mike DeRosenroll
Don't assume this one is over just because of that poll. You can't poll accurately in the north because a high proportion of the population on reserves don't have home telephones. Just look at the Northern Manitoba phonebook. Even accounting for lower turnout on reserves, that means Liberal support will have been underestimated and NDP support overestimated. Add in the 6% margin of error from the small sample size you're left with little of substance to go on.
16 01 06 John Doe
I'm not an NDP supporter, but I think Ashton will take this, though it's probably the most difficult call in the province. A previous post mentioned the Free Press poll. A few interesting things in the poll: it was 400 surverys, so that's a pretty good sample size. But, though aboriginals make up about 2/3 of the riding popoulation, they were only 1/3 of the respondents, due to the fact that many reserve residents don't have a phone at home. Keeper is ahead among the native population. But, the underrepresentation in the sample may be counter-balanced by their traditionally lower voter participation. Desjarlais' numbers were soft, and the publication of the poll may make them softer, if her NDPish supporters see the race as between Keeper and Ashton and defect to Ashton. Key factor here will be getting out the vote, in a riding that regularly has one of the worst turnout rates in the country. I give the edge there to Ashton, with her MLA father and his colleagues' machines likely being much stronger than the Liberals, who haven't elected anyone here, at any level, in quite some time. Interesting riding.
16 01 06 Barrie Leonard
The Free Press poll is not something to go on, in fact it will help Bev in that her supporters and many conservatives will for sure come out to vote for her and stop the discredited NDP/candidate. Because of her popular stances on issues, Bev's vote is determined to come out. The soft support is with the Libs, and consequently First Nations, which will also affect the NDP.
16 01 06 Victor A.
I have to change my prediction here. I was pretty stunned looking at the Winning Free Press survey results having Ashton as the winner with 34 % of the votes and a considerable lead over Tina Keeper ( 25 % ) and Bev Desjarlais ( 23 % ). If I'm not mistaken Ahmad ( Conservatives ) had 14 % of the voters supporting him. Looking at this survey + an extremly low turnout within the Aboriginal population ( which favours Keeper by 7 % yet is unlikely to vote in large numbers ) it looks like we are going to have a surprising outcome in this riding with Ashton as the winner.
16 01 06 Jack
I would not count this as a NDP. The poll of only 400 people does not reflect what people are saying in the community. It's a bit confusing to some voters, as many think Bev is still the NDP candidate. Which is probably why the NDP got such a high percentage, people probably thought they were voting for Bev.
This will not be an NDP win. Many people are questioning Ashton's age and her lack of experience. Anyone who has voted for Desjarlais in the past can clearly see that Ashton is no match to her. Not to mention the fact that Ashton is putting out material trying to take credit for Bev's accomplishments.
14 01 06 Brian F
Well, the Free Press wasn't much help today: they published a poll that has Ashton in the lead over Keeper by 9 points. They did point out that the poll wasn't entirely representative of the aboriginal make up of the riding but of course, the electoral turn out of aboriginal people is low. Put this in the NDP column.
14 01 06 JB
While I would have assumed that this was going to Keeper or Desjarlais the Free Press poll today has proven me wrong. With Ashton's huge lead and support among the towns of the riding (where people actually vote) I can't see this possibly going any way other than NDP on election day. After seeing that poll I do not know how anyone with an educated prediction can say anything other than an Ashton victory.
14 01 06 expat
What an amazing race this one is! Clearly any of the three major candidates could win this (Keeper for the Liberals, Desjarlais as an independent, and Ashton for the NDP). If it was looking more like a Liberal government again, I;d be inclined to give it to Keeper, but the wind isn't blowing in her direction. Ashton has run stronger than most people expected, and I was shocked to see a credible poll putting her in the lead. But much as I wish she would pull it off, I suspect that Bev Desjarlais will be heading back to Ottawa -- without a viable conservative in the race, she'll probably pull in many of those votes (especially with SSM giving her credibility with them), coupled with enough of her old supporters to allow her to edge out what will be a very tight three way race.
13 01 06 Christian Socialism
Problem with the inevitable Liberal pickup logic here, is that it assumes that the 7600 votes or so that Evans took last time round can be taken for granted; despite his somewhat dubious activities, Evans had the networks on the reservations needed to poll a good % (and the same goes for Harper in the previous few elections o/c). I've no idea whether or not Keeper has the same thing (from what I've heard, which isn't enough for more than a guess, the answer is "no") and if she doesn't it's *possible* to see her crash to fourth place, "star" candidate or not. Mind you, it's also possible that the other two candidates in with a good shot of winning (Desjarlais, Ashton) could wind up in fourth place as well so...
13 01 06 Thompson Girl
I agree there will be a vote split between Bev and NDP. But if Bev can win the majority of that split, which she should because it looks like she's running ahead of the NDP in the cities, take some Liberal and Conservative votes, she should squeak by Keeper. Liberals are dropping, and may switch their vote or stay home. Bev is very popular with the conservative/evangelical crowd and they will get out the vote. For all you urbanites, SSM made Bev a hero to many people despite the protrayal otherwise and people are coming out for her. That, and her huge name recognition after 9 years makes her a popular incumbent who residents can count on. Can we honestly say that we will be able to count on the other 2 candidates to be as strong in Ottawa? Didn't think so.
13 01 06 Bill
A Global/Winnipeg Free Press poll today reports Ashton with a 9% lead (@34%) over Keeper (@25%). Desjarlais (@23%) appears to be lagging with reportedly soft support, as few of her supporters indicate certainty they will vote for her. She dismisses the poll of course. Keeper appears to be carrying a fair lead among aboriginal voters (39% vs. 32%) so she's not out of it yet, but Ashton appears to be leading across the whole riding (her hard slogging may be paying off.) Desjarlais is starting to look less and less relevant to this race. Smart money has got to be on Ashton.
12 01 05 Sue
I agree with the previous post, this riding is one of the most unique ridings in the election with NDP, Liberal, and Independent candidates being competitive. Not to mention all 3 are women. However, I highly disagree that this riding will go in favour of the Liberals "star" candidate. Many people in the riding have no clue who Keeper is, except that she was an actress on North of 60 and if you listen to her in debates, her lack of political experience is clearly heard. She is failing to get her message across and many are looking at her as a single-issue candidate, who hasn't lived in the riding for a number of years. People know that having a "star" Liberal MP sitting at the government table holds little water here.
In regards to the NDP vote splitting, the NDP's campaign is struggling. They have a weak candidate with well-known name. Many NDP voters are unhappy with what's happen to Desjarlais. They know Desjarlais has been one the best MP's in the riding and has been accountable to the people. Mainly, people know they can trust her to follow through on her word. She is receiving much more support then the NDP camp anticipated. Not only is she receiving much of the NDP vote but also support from the life-long liberals and conservatives voters.
Point put simple - both the Lib and the NDP candidate lack political experience and both have not lived in the riding for the past number of years. Unlike Desjarlais, who has worked hard and knows the every day issues and challenges people in the communities face. Voters recognise this and I see this riding in Desjarlais's favour with the Liberals a close second.
08 01 06 Dave
I don’t live in this riding, but the Winnipeg Free Press has been giving Keeper quite a hand in this race. This is one of the most unique ridings in the election with NDP, Liberal, and Independent candidates being competitive. The Liberals lost this seat but 1000 votes, 8000 to 7000 votes last time around and the NDP and Desjarlais will certainly split that vote. Add an aboriginal Liberal candidate with true star power, and you’ve got a riding that should surly be a Liberal pick up on Jan 23rd.
07 01 06
I agree with Ron on this one. Desjarlais signs are sprouting up throughout the urban centres in the riding. The Keeper campaign has been very quiet, with not nearly the push Ron Evans had in '04. She is also poised to pick up significant chunks of conservative support now that she is free of the New Dogmatic Party. Speaking of, the Ashton campaign is tanking as voters are refusing to accept that a 23 year old would be a better rep than the 9 year incumbent. Her big-city socialism and support of all NDP policies does not fly in Churchill. Bev has a mind of her own. That ruffled feathers with the NDP but has also endeared her to many constituents and will lead to her victory on Jan. 23.
06 01 06 Ron S
There was a poll yesterday that indicated that "other" candidates had a 7% share on the Prairies, and that the Greens had 8% support. The only way that "other" gets that kind of number is if Desjarlais is doing well.
30 12 05 Park
I have to agree with the previous poster- Desjarlais is going to win this Chuck Cadman style. People here are upset the NDP booted Desjarlais, a popular incumbent, just for her vote against SSM for an inexperienced daughter of a cabinet minister. I doubt Tina Keeper is going to win this especially with the poor Liberal national campaign going on.
Oh, and let me add that Desjarlais' vote for SSM was on behalf of her constituents' wishes. She essentially sacrificed her seat as an NDP MP to vote for what her constituents elected her for. They will reward her for that. It's even peculiar Conservative MPs are praising her. Ashton is out of this game. This is a race between Desjarlais and Keeper, with Desjarlais winning, Keeper a distant second, the Tory comign in third, with Ashton in fourth.
29 12 05 Robert
As much of a Liberal I am, I do not see the star power of Tina Keeper winning this one when one must consider that she is up against an established NDP organisation, which includes the provincial side of things with Papa in the corner. Also keep in mind that Bev no longer has that on her side. NDP 1st, Libs 2nd, and a toss up between the Reform and Bev for third and fourth place
28 12 05 Bill
Media myths abound in the Churchill Riding.
First, Bev Desjarlais wasn't canned by the NDP, nor did she quit over her treatment by the party. Despite high profile NDP MP endorsements, she lost her local riding nomination on the first ballot. In other words, she'd be running for the NDP right now, had she not lost. Therefore, she comes off as "disgruntled" rather than "principled"! She is as likely to draw votes from the right as the left at this point.
Second, the aboriginal vote does not line up unthinkingly for star aboriginal candidates in Churchill Riding. Elijah Harper proved that decisively. Give native voters more credit; they won't vote for Tina Keeper (who hasn't lived in the North since age 4) just because she played a northerner on TV! It will take more to impress them.
The fact is, all three are articulate and marketable in different ways. This race will be close, and I expect it will go to the candidate who puts in the effort required. Ask around; who has bothered to show up in your community, knocked on doors and talked to you face-to-face?
Niki Ashton looks like the only one really putting in the work at this point, and if the other two candidates don't watch out, she'll work them both right out of the job. If you've lived in the Thompson riding, you'll know that her dad doesn't stack up his landslide wins with smiles and personality, he does it with a reputation for working his ass off before, during and after each election. It looks like Niki Ashton is taking that lesson to heart. If the other two don't drastically change tactics in the new year, she'll win.
22 12 05 AH
Clearly this will go to Desjarlais as the independent. She has the name recognition and the people she represents are going to be pretty miffed with the NDP. I think people will laugh about the Liberal candidate (a tv personality) Likely Desjarlais will have the organization this time and will pull a Chuck Cadman upset in churchill.
22 12 05 M. Lunn
I am now moving this into the Liberal column. They had a decent second place showing and when you add Tina Keeper's star candidacy appeal, the left wing split between Niki Ashton and Bev Desjarlais, the Liberals should take this. Even in the Democratic Space predictions, the Liberals are forecasted to win by almost 20 points, which is a little bit on the high side, but it certainly shows this will likely go Liberal. The Tories only got 15% last time around and will likely finish in fourth this time around.
20 12 05 Central Canadian
If you do the math this is a easy win for the liberals. The liberals only lost by 1000 votes last time around. The Liberals would have a chance to win here even if it was a three horse race. But with 3 big factors will make it very hard for the NDP to hold. First off I think Bev Desjarlais is worth at least 1000 votes, this alone would knock off the NDP, but there is more. The liberals are running a star candidate that even a conservative like myself would consider voting for. so even this star power prevents the loss of people who voted liberal last time this will allow a liberal win. and finally the NDP candidate is 23. How much experience can one gain to be able to represent this riding. Her dad cannot be helping her out all the time; he has his own stuff to do. I think under the conditions I mentioned it will be a liberal win. and also for the record I think Bev will get more then 1000 votes to really seal the deal for the liberals.
13 12 05 Mark R.
There is a clear NDP base in this riding and the Ashton name is very well known given that the candidate's father is a popular cabinet minister in the Doer government. The 4-way split will also favour the NDP and the gun ban will most certainly hurt any realistic Liberal chance of a win here. The Conservatives don't stand any chance of winning this riding so the battle comes down to Desjarlais, Ashton and Keeper. I don't think that Bev is cut from the same cloth as Chuck Cadman so I don't see here being elected as an Independent MP. I will bet that the NDP will sneak up the middle and win.
08 12 05 EE
Well I think that every party has something going for them, and something going against them here... especially with the Liberals handgun ban idea. I think that, although handguns are not a large issue here, the idea will rub a lot of people the wrong way. And as I said about DMCR in Sask. it will give new life to an old issue, the Gun Registry, which has hurt the Liberals on the Prairies... This can only hurt Keeper.
With no clear cut challenger emerging I think that Desjarlais stands quite a good chance in a 4-way race.
08 12 05 Victor A.
I think it will not as close as many people claim. The Liberals have almost won this seat on last two occasions. Just look at your left and check out the Liberal results from 2004. It was close in 2000 as well yet we all know Bev still hang on. This time, Tina Keeper, a young, accomplished Native Canadian candidate will earn a relatively easy victory. I do believe that Bev has some following in the riding butlet's face it, she always won by a relatively small percentage over her rivals in the past and now that there is a new NDP candidate running, it will simply split the vote. The independent candidates rarely win anything, even if in Western Provinces they tend to do way better than in the East. Desjarlais will get some of these socially conservative, blue collar workers, as was rightly pointed out. In terms of demographics, Keeper is in a good position as well because this riding is over 50 % Native Canadian so that should help as well. I have no clue how popular or unpopular is Niki's father in Manitoba Provincial Politics, maybe someone could shed some light on that, it could make a difference between a 2nd and a 3rd place. I know that Deepers actually hold on pretty well in Manitoba provincial surveys so I'm certainly not expecting Ashton to get a bad result, but just do the math guys, the Liberals have a chance they won't miss. I'm also surprised so few people actually predict Niki as a winner. All in all, I do believe Tina will win by over 2000 votes here.
08 12 05 james
It really doesn't matter if a few native elders who are against same sex marriage are supporting Bev. The liberals have this in the bag. Some reserves had near 100 % voter turn out last election, in favour of the liberals. You need to take into account the vote split that WILL happen with the NDP and Bev.
07 12 05 Andrew M
Bev Desjarlais has beaten some "star" candidates in the past, but none as well-liked as Keeper. And that was when she ran under the NDP banner. She is still popular, although I disagree that this riding was so strongly opposed to SSM. They certainly have more pressing issues to worry about.
04 12 05 Lex D.
I had an interesting meeting with some colleagues based out of Norway House First Nation last week, and naturally talk of the federal election couldn't be avoided. These Churchill electors, including two elders, were all voting Desjarlais. The reason? She's the only candidate with a proven history of representing northern Manitoba, and she's against same sex mariage. I was surprised that they would be that familiar with Bev Desjarlais - she hasn't exactly been high profile. Very telling comments from residents of Tina Keeper's home community.
03 12 05 M T
Although it is very difficult to win election as an independent, there are a good number of cases where an MP was re-elected as an independent after leaving their party. Desjarlais will draw on votes from several camps, including NDP voters, social conservative Tories who sympathise with her stance on SSM, and disenchanted Liberals who don't want to move to the NDP or Conservatives. In an election like this, party affiliation seems to be something of a liability anyway. A high profile independent with a good record should come up the middle and win. This will be too close to call until closer to election day (if then), but I would not at all be surprised if Desjarlais is returned to Parliament; that's what I would consider most likely.
02 12 05 taurean
Star candidates have crashed and burned in the past because they: don't know the local issues, don't understand federal politics and don't often work hard enough on the ground. I have seen it happen each election.
However, in this case Keeper is a keeper.
She is a National Aboriginal Achievement Award winner, born in northern Manitoba and a strong activist on northern issues. Aboriginal rights, high suicide rates, and violence against women are serious local issues to the riding. With hard work this campaign she can take it.
Furthermore, the numbers appear to be in her favour. With the NDP/Bev vote being split and the local Conservative vote likely to stable (as last time) - with hard work and diligence, the Liberals should take it.
29 11 05 MJL
How could Bev Desjarlais lose the NDP riding nomination and still win this riding (or do well)? The answer to that question is obvious: activists =/= voters.
Bev Desjarlais lost because of her gay marriage vote - I know people active in the NDP, they were pissed. That vote, however, was popular in this riding, and is exactly why Desjarlais as an independent will carry some anti-SSM blue collar dippers (and probably some Conservatives as well). Jim Pankiw was good for 7000 votes, Larry Spencer for 1500 - and their defection from their parties were based on appeals to much a narrower base.
Just do the math, guys - yes the sponsorship scandal happened, but people knew about it in 2004. Furthermore, the Liberals are running a fairly good candidate (something that gets bandied around here far too much). On the flipside you have the NDP facing a disgruntled ex-candidate, eating away some of the votes - that's the price the NDP pays for moving away from its western populist working class roots (it may be worth it in the big picture too, but no electoral strategy is without sacrifice).
26 11 05 fairfordmetis
Tina Keeper will win this ridings for the Liberals, she not any normal actor, but a powerful advocate for women's rights and issues, native rights, children's rights and poverty. She has devoted much of her professional life to her humanitarian beliefs. She won't only be popular in the Native communities, she will also be popular and have name recognition amongst the mainstream population.
The NDP were (strategically) stupid to let this young school girl take over the ridings on her father's steam. Bev will Lose, so will Nicole. And the Liberal Party will cement this riding into a new western stronghold.
21 11 05 P Stockton
It'll be Bev. There are many misconceptions on this site. First off the long post below was undoubedtly written by a member of the Ashton family. Niki Ashton sounds wonderful, just ask her, but Daddy is calling all of the shots, which includes a smear campaign on the Desjarlais camp. Bev has been an honest, hard working MP for 8+ years with nothing close to a scandal, I think that can be agreed upon. Niki has little if any riding accomplishments. So while Bev was defeated fairly in the nomination it remains to be seen whether voters will forget Bev's near decade long hard work for what Niki Ashton claims to bring. 1,000 people voted in that nomination and we all know how those work, but if one of Bev or Niki wins they will need much more than that so don't take Niki's win in the nomination as a preview of how all NDP/Bev voters will vote. Maybe CPC voters will warm up to Bev with no NDP beside her name. It's a possibility. As for Tina Keeper, she does have alot going for her which has been mentioned by others. A few things that may work against her; ongoing aboriginal poverty getting worse under Liberals, tainted water, inexperience, the lingering poor performace of Elijah Harper and the fact that Liberals (like Reg Alcock said in the press) believe that only an aboriginal should represent the riding, thus marginalizing aboriginals into certain seats like Liberals do with other minority groups. Does anyone think Keeper will make any difference on the aboriginal file except a photo op and puffball questions to the Minister. Niki won't win; she may hamper Bev from beating Tina but Bev will have enough support so Niki can't win. Bev has more to stand on than any of them regarding her record and credibility (which she lived up to when she voted against SSM like she said - regardless if people disagree with her posiiton she still lived up to what she said)
18 11 05 BrianJA
The Liberal candidate is a TV star. No contest here, as Bev and the NDP fight it out and the Liberal candidate walks right on through and takes back Churchill.
15 11 05 A. Vancouverite
And why is it really significant that Bev Desjarlais was able to win as a white person in a predominately first nations riding, thus somehow translating to her ability to win now? At least three of the provincial MLA's in the area are white, including Niki Ashton's dad.
If we're going to talk about the how super awesome the candidates are though, and I'm saying this because of the Tina Keeper is great talk (she's a good candidate, yes but she has certain problems she'll face such as a Liberal such as the tainted water scandal). Ashton is pretty super awesome herself. She's not just some unknown student. She's multi-lingual, highly educated, and was able to convince long time members of a political party that doesn't allow instant-memberships in the same way the Liberals or Conservatives do (which is what lead to the Chuck Cadman situation, and many problems for the Liberals during the last election, btw), that she would make a better representative than an eight year incumbent by a two to one margin might! Her age didn't disuade them, and it's not as if the members of the NDP are part of some ivory tower urban eliete. This is a very blue collar riding, where members of any political party with significant numbers would be representiative of the wider community.
In ridings like this the personality factor is very important, because there are far fewer people, the chance for the individual citizen to connect with his or her representative, and guage whether or not they'll be an affective advocate is increased. Bev Desjarlais can't say the nomination was stacked against her, or that there was funny buisness, the way Chuck Cadman was able to. Or she might say it, but she won't be credible because its simply not true. Therefore the comparisons between the two aren't relevent or smart. Besides which Desjarlais wasn't part of some populist sweep, the same way that Cadman was for the Reform Party in BC (and the West). Cadman got support from across the political spectrum, because he was Cadman and because the Reform Party convinced former conservatives, liberals and new democrats that they'd clean things up. Desjarlais got elected because she wasn't so offensive to the naturally NDP voting area, that she was able to convince enough people to vote for the NDP with her as the candidate. She did the job for eight years, but again why is it that she wasn't able to convince more people to join the NDP and vote for her? Why is it that no one is willing to answer that quesion?
In any case, Elijah Harper, was a star former NDP'er and the NDP was at a national low, including being rather weak in Manitoba only a few years after the defeat of the highly unpopular Pawley goverment. Feel free to spam the board with the same inane predictions if you must, and Keeper could win, but keep in mind how your simplifying things, and not considering the local factors at play.
P.S. I know the irony of someone with my name saying that, but I'd bet that most of you haven't even been to Churchill or a similar riding. And it's not a difficult bet based upon some of the simplifications.
15 11 05 James
Oh how the NDP did themselves in here!! A girl just out of school for the NDP, a independent incumbent who fights for what her people believe and a liberal TV star? Everyone loves Tina Keeper...the liberals have all the Native leaders in their back pocket for endorsements + native celebrity = Liberal Win. What were the NDP thinking??!!!!
12 11 05
You shouldn't underestimate Bev Desjarlais. She unseated high-profile native leader Elijah Harper in 1997 and beat him again in 2000. She also held onto the seat against Band Chief Ron Evans in 2004. This is quite successful for a white politician in a predominantly First Nations riding.
Just because Bev is running as an independent doesn't mean she will split the NDP vote. Remember Chuck Cadman in Surrey North? Many commentators believed his independent candidacy would split the conservative vote, but it didn't. He won in a landslide. I think a lot of people know what Bev has done for them over the past 8 years and will reward her with a fourth term.
11 11 05 mini phreek
this will be a three way race between IND, NDP and LP.
with a star candidate and the opportunity the NDP left them. i think the liberals have the advantage to take this one.
11 11 05 A. Vancouverite
If Desjarlais was so great, shouldn't she have been able to win her own nomination? Not to mention the fact that her husband is a big wig Union organizer in the region, surely he should've been able to drum up support for her?!? IN A NOMINATION! She only needed like 1000 people to vote for her. If she couldn't even do that, then why will she win as an independent? This situation is nothing like the Chuck Cadman thing, in that the Conservatives, and Liberals allow instant memberships, the NDP does not. The area is an NDP stronghold, they only lost in 93' to a former dipper, and considering her lack of organizational skills and weak victories against strong Liberals, I don't see why she'd suddenly win now. She wasn't hugely popular, she was adequate for the people of the riding. And let's not forget the Conservatives were way back, they aren't a factor, if she draws off their votes, she'd have to get a signifigant chunk of the NDP vote to win. It ain't gonna happen. That's a prediction that I'm totally willing to make, because really her campaign would be about SSM. And in all honesty who cares? "I was slighted by the members, and I'm against SSM, vote for me!"
Basically this race is between Ashton, the new NDP candidate, and Keeper, a former actor and social advocate the Liberal. While Keeper is a strong candidate in this majority first nations riding, writing off Ashton would be rather stupid at this point. For one she was strong enough to CONVINCINGLY win a first ballot nomination victory, two she's very educated, three she has better connections to the first nations community than Desjarlais ever had. Her father won his provincial riding with a huge margin of victory, and the other provincial ridings are NDP strongholds as well. She'll defenetly have the backing of the Manitoba NDP, in the area. If the NDP only gets half that vote, she'll win. Now back to Keeper though, it was important for the Liberals to pick someone of first nations background, especially in the face of this tainted water scandal. That being said, that will hurt Keeper's chances because she is a Liberal. So for all of you people posting Liberal or Independent Victory (like she's Chuck Cadman?!?), think before you post.
I'm saying its too close to call until the campaign heats up, but nothing is guranteed except that the Conservatives won't win, and neither will Desjarlais (heck she might not even run once she cools down, and realizes how ponitless it is, especially if Gary Doer gives her some appointment to something).
09 11 05 Doug
I say Desjarlais will win because she will get lots of her old NDP vote, lots of the Conservative vote, and also most votes from independent voters who do not see themselves as aligned with any particular party.
28 10 05 Craig
NDP vote split? They made a serious mistake in dumping Bev Desjarlais for Niki Ashton, and they will be humiliated here. I can't see them holding on to too many votes...for the same reason that they lost all their Saskatchewan seats. Jack Layton is out of touch with rural areas on social issues, and his own MP's have kept them in (or brought them into) the NDP column. What this could do is send some traditional Liberals and even Conservatives to Desjarlais in a sympathy and a protest vote. The star candidate for the Liberals in Tina Keeper will keep it close though, but in the end, I think Desjarlais will get revenge. Also the water crisis in Kashechewan may draw many First Nations votes away from the Liberals. Predicted results: IND-Desjarlais 37%, LIB 32%, CPC 14%, NDP 13%, GRN 3%, others 2%.
26 10 05 Nick Boragina
update to my earlier prediction. It appears as if Bev was too moderate for the NDP. Not only is she running as an independent (which should lower the NDP's vote total) but the Liberals are running a so-called "all star" candidate (which should further lower it). I am changing my prediction to Liberal, and solid Liberal, I'm more sure about this then some of the rural conservative ridings.
01 11 05 northern boi
The Libs will have no problem winning this riding with a champion like Tina Keeper. The NDP are finished b/c of the Desjarlias split, there is no way they can maintain this riding. And funny as it sounds, this is one rural riding that the Cons will never have.
25 10 05 Richard
North of 60 star Tina Keeper just announced she is running for the Liberals. She is a high profile first nation candidate who will do well in this predominantly Aboriginal riding. 24 year old Niki Ashton, who's daddy control Doer's political aparatus up north, beat Bev Desjarlais for the NDP nomination. Now Bev is running as an independent. With the NDP vote split and a weak NDP candidate, Keeper will with almost certainty be the next MP for Churchill.
25 10 05 Canadian Redhead
Further to my last entry, Tina Keeper hopes to capture the Liberal nomination. www.cbc.ca/story/canada/national/2005/10/25/keeper-churchill051025.html
If she does, this 'star' candidate will further cement the Liberal's likelyhood in Churchill.
25 10 05 IGB
Who would've thought that the most interesting race in the province of Manitoba would take place in its most northern, oft-forgotten riding? With Bev Desjarlais running as an Independent ousted by the 23-year-old daughter of a provincial cabinet minister (it all very much smacks of a concerted attempt to oust Desjarlais because she disagrees -- and here I always thought the NDP was an inclusive party), AND North of 60's Tina Keeper (a celebrity, to be sure, but a cut above most actors that move into politics) most likely running for the Liberals, we have a very interesting race brewing. Desjarlais deciding to stay in the race will most likely split NDP votes (if she runs), and Keeper's "star power" will undoubtedly attract attention to the race in a riding where the Liberals are always competitive, I feel that this will be a Liberal pickup -- even if Tina Keeper isn't the candidate.
25 10 05 Paul
Desjarlais will win as an independent candidate. It is much easier for die-hard supporters of a party to switch to an independent than to another party. As such many Liberal and CPC supporters will vote for her, fully compensating whatever votes she will vote to the new NDP candidate.
She will get about 8,000 votes, the Liberal and the NDP candidates will get about 5,000 votes each, the CPC will get maybe 1,000 votes.
22 10 05 Canadian Redhead
With Desjarlains now running as an indpendant and a *very* young NDP candidate (regardless of her progenitors), the vote will be split. Given how close the vote was last election, I'm predicting a liberal win here.
20 10 05 RD
Bev Desjarlais has now been defeated for the NDP nomination and has left the NDP caucus. She has announced her intention to run in the next election as an independent. While I don't think she'll win, she may become the spoiler, making this race too close to call.
18 10 05 Aric H
With today's development that Bev Desjarlais has lost the NDP nomination and may run as an Independent, this riding may become too close to call. If Bev runs she could take enough NDP votes away to elect a Liberal here. If Bev doesn't run the NDP could maintain it with their new candidate. The Conservatives are not a factor at this point.
18 10 05 justin
Too close to call.
With Desjarlais' nomination loss, this is an NDP/Liberal toss up, whether she runs as an independent or not.
Her loss will be interpreted as the party bass throwing out someone who dared disagree with the leader in Ottawa, no matter what actually happened on the ground at the nomination meeting.
The optics are not good here and this will play to the Liberals' favour.
18 10 05 MD
Mark this one for the Liberals. With out Bev the NDP chance are hurt, with Bev running as an Independent the NDP has zero chance at winning this one. The Liberals came within 1000 last time around, and they know they can take it. They had trouble getting out their base last time, but with people mad about Bev getting dumped they will pull off a victory.
18 10 05 Don
Stick a fork in the NDP, they're done here. Ashton and Bev will split the Dipper vote, allowing an easy win for the LIBS.
18 10 05 Mark R.
This just in - incumbent NDP MP Bev Desjarlais lost her nomination battle to the daughter of popular NDP MLA and Cabinet Minister Steve Ashton, Niki Ashton. Mr. Ashton's team obviously powerful, overcame the popularity of a seemingly safe incumbent MP. Although this nomination fight was divisive, Ms. Ashton will join a whole bunch more of NDP MP's in Ottawa come 2006.
18 10 05 M. Lunn
I'm moving this to too close to call now that Bev Desjarlais will be running as an Independent. It is possible Bev Desjarlais will win as an Independent but I would say not likely. The big question is which party will she steal the most votes from. If she steals enough from the NDP, I think a liberal win is definitely possible. The one party who won't win for sure and will likely come in fourth is the Conservatives.
17 10 05 Bear and Ape
Okay, big news for this riding. Bev lost her NDP nomination battle, is going to sit as an independent and will run as an independent in the next election. Time to throw everything out the window because who-da-hell-knows what will happen. Just how popular is Bev to potentially win as an independent? Will the NDP focus resources here and keep the riding? Will the expected vote split help the Liberals, especially if they run a star, Native candidate? Do the Conservatives have a prayer? One things for sure, this race just got a whole lot more interesting.
03 10 05 Bear and Ape
Fur Trader, the operative words in your blurb are "if" and "should". Why would Bev's vote against SSM work against her? If we're not mistaken, her constituents were strongly against SSM (like other northern ridings) and she voted for them. This seems like an MP who listens to the voters (which is a good thing). Plus her party is too small and too vulnerable to not help her out. So she's in the dog house at the moment; remember Svend Robinson's petition to take the word "God" out of national oaths and anthems? He was banished to the backbenches but come election time the party still supported him. Much will be the same for Bev. Despite this, it will be no walk in the park for Bev, the Liberals will put on a good fight. The Liberals could win, if all the "ifs" and "shoulds" come to fruition, till then it's Bev's to keep.
26 09 05 Fur Trader
The Liberals should win this riding with a little more concentrated effort and more national support from Liberal HQ in Ottawa. Each election the significant Aboriginal vote (generally in favour) of the Liberals increases. If at least 40% of the Aboriginal vote got out to support the Liberal candidate, Libs should retain this riding and build into a Liberal stronghold. Especially since Bev Desjarlais has fallen from grace from within her own party, lost her high-profile status and voted against equal marriage.
09 09 05
Bev's vote against same-sex marriage will be very popular to the Conservative Manitoba, including this riding of Churchill. She will win again with an increased margin of win.
12 05 05 A.S.
Interesting to consider that this the last remaining Federal NDP stretch of non-urban Prairie--and as we all know, Bev Desjarlais votes accordingly. If she stays, she (likely) wins. If she doesn't, is forced out, and who knows, maybe runs as an independent (shades of Rick Laliberte) or even joins the Tories (shades of Angela Vautour), then toss out the rule book. In that case, CPC might well eye this seat as a coup-de-grace last frontier, given how the party's already annihilated the ghost of Tommy Douglas in Sask and into rural Manitoba--except that Churchill is a little too raw even for that likelihood. Only if the Tories score an Alberta-like 2/3 of the vote in The Pas/Flin Flon/Thompson, or the opposition's split too many ways, can Churchill realistically go Harper; uh, yeah, like that's going to happen now. Too many reserves; too many aboriginals--and those have been lately galvanized by star Liberal candidates like Elijah Harper and Ron Evans. So, for all we know, in a bad election year for the Grits, this could be their sole *gain*. But all that assumes that w/o Desjarlais, the NDP'll roll over and play dead. Maybe not. Sure, the Dippers lost the rural Prairies; but in that case, they can always reframe Churchill as a NW extension of Northern Ontario, where they won two seats, came close in several others, and by and large surpassed expectations...
07 05 05 Full Name
I think that Bev Desjarlais is a very strong MP and that with any other leader of the NDP she would win her seat hands down again. But this time around - Mr. Layton has said that he will throw the MP from Churchill out of his caucus because of her stance on Same-Sex Marriage. While I find it admirable that Ms. Desjarlais will most likely stick to her principles and let Mr. Layton do his worst do the constitents of Churchill really want an MP who is most likely on her way out of the party that she is running for.
06 05 05 J H
We should probably wait and see if Desjarlais can overcome the serious nomination challenge that she is facing before declaring her the favourite.
04 05 05 Nick Boragina
Perhaps the most moderate MP in the NDP will easy take this riding, getting the socialist votes as a NDPer, and the socially conservative votes found in rural areas.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
Like many Northern ridings that have a large aboriginal population and are poor this is a strong NDP area. Add to the fact Bev Desjarlais opposes the gun registry and opposes same-sex marriage which despite the fact this goes against NDP policy, those positions are amongst the few areas where the riding leans to the right.

Submit Information here

Provincial Index
Federal Election - 2006
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Milton Chan, 1999-2005 - Email Webmaster