10:49 PM 21/01/2006

Prediction Changed
12:11 PM 16/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Brett Dolter
Allyce Herle
Lorne Nystrom
Andrew Scheer

Andrew Scheer

2004 Result:
Andrew Scheer
Lorne Edmund Nystrom
Allyce Herle
Deanna Robilliard
Mary Sylvia Nelson
Lorne Edward Widger

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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19 01 06 Marvin Mapes
I honestly believe the outcome of this race will come down to weather. A clear day without much snow on the ground will probably ensure this seat stays blue. But if heavy snow or worse occurs, the farm and hillbilly vote so crucial to the Tories will stay at home, pretty confident that the incumbent will be re-elected. Whereas Nystrom's base vote in Regina will have an easier time making it to the polls. I can see this vote going either way, by a margin of less than 1,000.
There is a reason we don't normally have winter elections in this country. Unbelievable that the outcome will hinge on the weather.
18 01 06 Randy
With the Conservative tide rising all over the country, Andrew will be aided by a 'time for change' sweep.
The Liberals have been reduced to desperation politics, with Allyce taking her brother's advice on political messaging. It ain't working nationally, and it ain't working here in RQ.
16 01 06 BM
I do not understand why this riding is listed as a NDP win. This is a tight race but the conservatives should definitely be considered the frontrunners. There is a large rural proportion to this riding that will help propel the conservatives and national strength should also translate to strength in this riding.
16 01 06 Kevin
What made this constituency change to NDP??? I think that an NDP victory in this riding is not only premature but quite likely incorrect. Other prediction sites have this riding going to the Conservatives and Sheer appears to have the momentum here. Lorne Nystrom is a tired candidate running for a party that many people in Saskatchewan no longer identify with.
15 01 06 Christian Socialism
Like a lot of Saskatchewan races this one hinges on the question of the Liberal vote; if it collapses, then Nystrom is back. If it doesn't then another razor-thin result is likely and frankly I wouldn't like to call a winner on that for quite a while yet (and things aren't helped by the dearth of decent polling data coming out of Mouseland...)
Anyways, for several reasons this is *probably* the NDP's best hope of a Saskatchewan takeback; first off Nystrom was (unless my memory is very much mistaken. And it could be) the only NDP candidate in the weirdly-drawn cluster of Regina-Saskatoon-and-lots-of-outlying-rural-areas ridings, to actually win *any* polls outside the main urban centre (or centres in one case). The second main reason is demographics; of the four Regina-area ridings, this is clearly the most "naturally" NDP leaning (it's both significantly poorer and much more blue collar than the rest), however much that actually means. And then you have the fact that the Dippers are probably quite prepared to sacrifice one or two other seats locally just to get a chance to make this one a much safer bet...
14 01 06 Jacqueline Roy
Conservative or NDP. Let's talk about how the NDP could win this back. Three things are key here: Firstly, the conservatives do have a stronghold that we definitely can't deny. But Andrew Scheer is the weakest of the Conservative candidates in Saskatchewan and so might be a good target for ousting. He's not someone that a lot of people identify with. His win surprised even the Conservatives.
08 01 06 Pratt
The NDP candidate was recently asked to leave a Christmas dinner on the Gordons First Nation, which goes to show the support for the NDP in this riding in our First Nations community. Alyce should have a better chance this time around, as Andrew still has no grasp of First Nations issues. This will be an interesting last two weeks of campaining.
23 12 05 Aric H
This election is almost like a Part 2 of the last election because the parties are now all targeting ridings in a strategic way based on last year's results. The NDP seems to be aware of what happened to them in Saskatchewan last year and so they are making more of an effort at having Layton tell voters here that voting Liberal elects Conservatives and so people should vote NDP instead. Layton had a press conference in this area a couple weeks ago in which he talked about the "unlucky 13 Conservatives" that Saskatchewan ended up with so he may be able to move this seat back into the NDP column if Nystrom works harder this time around.
21 12 05 RJM
Andrew Scheer hasn't made a big splash, but has quietly done his homework and is known in the riding now. He should win.
Lorne Nystrom is a two-time loser now, and many in the party believe he's past his best-before date. Simon deJong left this seat in good shape for Lorne after his third place finish in Yorkton-Melville. He ran it down to the point that he barely survived the 2000 election, but didn't take that as a warning and get down to work. Those of us who live in the east side of the seat were formerly in Yorkton-Melville and know him too well. The provincial NDP government's continuing larcenous level of rural taxation won't help Lorne either.
Allyce Herle has too much ground to make up. Martin's handgun ban opened old wounds and the Liberals haven't won here since Jimmy Gardiner did in 1953. She got more than average support from the Liberal party last time, but the Liberals will concentrate on seats they hold now, rather that seats they might win.
16 12 05 love, sydney
The numbers that will matter on election night here is small l-liberals who will join the NDP cart and put Nystrom back in the house. Herle's a solid candidate but many fence-sitting, small-L grits and red tories are repelled by Harpers pro-US, social conservativeism history. Add the fact that its fairly well known that the Tories under Harper plan to axe a number of public servants, who own a few houses in this riding, and you’ve got a concerted effort to block him from getting another body in the house. Scheer is really a minor player and he has been virtually invisible at times. Add the fact that the electorate often toss out incumbents from minority houses, and you've got the return of one popular veteran.
15 12 05 MJB
The NDP ran on its record in Saskatchewan last election and they lost. There is no way around that. They can blame Paul Martin, they can blame the provincal budget but they refuse to do is blame Lorne Nystrom, who has been an MP for 30+ years and has accomplished nothing for this riding. As for Bear and Ape, you can get a poll by poll result from last election there are twelve reserves in the riding and all of them voted first nations. The reason that First Nations, Metis and Inuit people will vote in higher numbers is that the First Minister Meeting made significant progress to address the issues facing First Nations people. They will vote because they saw that after the agreement Jack Layton decide to defeat the government instead of waiting for two months, avoiding and Christmas election and allowing the FMM agreement to be ratified by the house. The Liberals have a plan for First Nations people and neither of the other parties do. THe other thing that all the NDP posters fail to mention is that their party is collapsing in the polls. They are below their support from last election. I am sticking by my Liberal prediction but this riding is going to be an exciting one to watch come Jan 23. You really can't count anyone out.
15 12 05 Gregor Burton
Allyce Herle is a strong candidate. She has a great deal of experience working with a variety of individuals, including Aboriginal Peoples' and members of many other dynamics that make up this riding. Aboriginals make up a very siginificant part of this riding. Right now, they are not, in my opinion, represented by Andrew Scheer, who did not know what RCAP was during the last Federal Election.
Many of you may also forget that Allyce was born in the rural community of Prelate, and her ties to the rural community are much stronger than has been indicated.
Those who seek to equate Allyce's validity as a candidate, and her brothers' influence within the Liberal Party are sorely mistaken.
14 12 05 Derek G.
Who ever is predicting a Liberal win, you really need to come to reality that it won't happen. The main reason that Allyce Herle did so well last election compared to Liberals in the past was not because she is a strong candidate, but because of the fear of electing a Conservative MP. Voters now see that voting Liberal in Sask means electing a Conservative MP, so progressive voters this time around will be voting NDP to stop a Conservative win. Which gives Nystrom a very good chance at winning this seat back, but Andrew Scheer has been visible as an MP in the riding so he has a slight edge. This is going to be a close race on election night between the NDP and Conservatives, but I do expect Andrew Scheer to be re-elected.
13 12 05 Bear and Ape
We feel that this is a three way race, but the Liberals are not the ones going to win. The CPC has the rural regions but what of NDP/Liberal vote splitting? It has been suggested that NDP voters will, "turn (to) the Liberals to stop the Conservatives". We're sorry to report but that's what happened in 2004. We needn't mention Paul Martin's 11th hour plea to NDP voters to block Harper. What happened? A near CPC sweep of Saskatchewan, and a half dozen other ridings in BC and Ontario that could-have/would-have gone NDP but ended up Conservative. NO, NDP voters are not going to be stupid again in these ridings. Couple that with the unpopular provincial NDP budget that hurt the federal NDP in 2004 and it is not surprising that NDP lost a number of seats by narrow margins. As for First Nations voters it's been claimed that, "for the first time in this riding, all twelve First Nations voted for the Liberal Party last year". We're not entirely sure of this, but for the sake of argument, lets say that this statement is correct. The claim that, "Voter turnout amongst First Nations will increase in this riding", we really do not see what incentive is out there for First Nation voters to line up in droves. This is a winnable seat for all three parties but the NDP have the edge with past history, name recognition and they don't have the baggage that other parties have.
09 12 05 MJB
Lorne Nystrom will not win this riding. Allyce Herle is a very strong candidate on her own meritt. People who attack her brother in order to try and smear her obviously don't know anything about the women. Allyce has worked in Regina Qu'Appelle for over thirty years. She has many community connections that might typically support the NDP. The other thing that NDP predictors have failed to submit is that for the first time in this riding, all twelve First Nations voted for the Liberal Party last year. Voter turnout amongst First Nations will increase in this riding, those votes will help the Liberals. The national election will also hurt Nystrom as the polls are turning this campaign into a race between the Cons and the Libs. People across the riding will have the same decision to make as people across the rest of Canada. They will turn the Liberals to stop the Conservatives. Also many posters fail to take into account the Minister Goodale coat tails in this riding. This riding will not be a walk for any of the parties but I am predicting a Liberal victory.
08 12 05 MCG
There are more than two major contenders here. The NDP strategy is to say that there are two main contenders to encourage voters to strategically choose the NDP over the Liberals, but they have forgotten to include policy in their campaign. (Nystrom made this evident in his appearance on Paul Newman's CBC show.) The Liberal candidate is a strong candidate in the Aboriginal population because she's worked in the communities. She's also got strong recommendations outside of the reserves due to her work in the Regina community. Granted, Scheer and Nystrom also have there strongholds of support and there will be exicting weeks ahead. However, people do base their votes on more than the "fear factor." It can also backfire as well, as it has in a variety of elections before.
08 12 05 Good ole prairie Ukrainian
Although it is quite early at this point, I give Nystrom the edge thus far. None of the three candidates is showing much of a presence, but it can be difficult pounding in lawn signs when it is almost 30 below outside.
With the new revelations about Goodale (income trusts) and a concerted effort by the Premier to attack strategic voting, Scheer will be in trouble. Last time around he avoided attention vis a vis his VERY shallow resume.
27 11 05 P.S.
I've had the chance to talk to the two main contenders here.
Lorne Nystrom has been out on the hustings working hard. I ran into him in Regina and in Fort Qu-Apelle. He stands to benefit the most from any bleed in the vote from the Lib camp. I also don't think the Green Party is going to grow its support in this riding. Its not as 'trendy' in North and East Regina as it is in the south end of the city.
Andrew Scheer is a sincere MP. I've met him in the riding and at Pearson airport in Toronto and had a chance to talk both times, but he has to fight the battle of being 'just another face in the crowd' for the Tories in Saskatchewan.
Of all the seats in Saskatchewan the Tories currently hold, this is the one they could easily lose. AND, if they can hold this one, it may signal the really big divide there is between the new NDP of Jack Layton and the traditional one of Saskatchewan.
25 11 05 JFB
Ça ne sera pas facile. Sans doute le seul gain néo-démocrate en Saskatchewan. Mais Nystrom a fait ses preuves, le NPD mettra toute sa machine pour récupérer ce siège, le balayage de 2004 ayant profondément marqué le parti. Ce sera une lutte très serrée, mais courte victoire NPD à terme.
25 11 05 Steve Lloyd
As ususal, Quiring has a dead on anaysis ;-) It WILL be hard to unseat the conservative MP's in Saskatchewan, but Nystom stands the best chance. To all the posters below who talked about the nomination fight, that's not a BAD thing people, it's a sign of a winnable seat. Also, since he was challenged in the nomination, Nystrom has been working his butt off. There is a reason that he was the longest serving MP for the NDP, he knows how to do this stuff.
21 11 05 Matt
Allyce Herle? The sister of adscamming, sole-source contracting, taxpayer money grabbing martinite David Herle. Believe me she doesn't stand a chance against either Andrew or Lorne. She's in way over her head and will finish a DISTANT third. This is a two way fight between the old guard of Lorne Nystrom and the new face of politics, Andrew Scheer. I expect Andrew to come out on top seeing as most people in RQ don't believe in the same kind of big city socialism now being espoused by Jack Laytons NDP. Soft on crime, big on social spending that will only affect big city interests like those in Toronto, Vancouver, MTL and the 'crats in Ottawa. Andrew will take this riding but it's going to be a hell of a fight.
16 11 05 MCG
I find it interesting that no one has mentioned the Liberal candidate's name yet. I think it goes to show that some NDP and Conservative supporters do not want to go up against a firm community organizer, or don't want to broadcast that point. Her as of yet fairly unknown involvement in Regina and the surrounding area has the potential to balloon into something boding well for the Liberals. Allyce Herle's attention to the surrounding rural area including the First Nations reserves could also do wonders. I don't think that the Conservatives have this wrapped up at all, especially considering Scheer's comments on his blog.
11 11 05
The NDP suffered a huge defeat when they did not return a single MP from the province of there birth in 2004 and more embarrassing, there longest serving MP. As a result they will pour a huge amount of resources in to fighting both the CPC (the only other party that can win here) and the Liberals (the party that would give it to the CPC) in order to win back both this seat and palister.
The NDP will not take their Saskatchwan stronghold for granted any longer.
04 10 05 M. Lunn
The liberals won't win this, but instead will be kingmaker. Andrew Scheer has been anything but a strong MP and the fact he is one of the more right wing members probably won't go over well in the urban portions of the riding. On the other hand Lorne Nystrom is one of the more moderate NDP members who is much like Gary Doer, Roy Romanow, New Labour type socialist. He lost in 1993 but then came back in 1997, although that time was in a different riding. Add to the fact he was hurt by the unpopular NDP provincial budget, which will be less of an issue. Nevertheless, ever since 1993, the Reform/Alliance/Conservatives seem to strengthen their support in Saskatchewan while the NDP has been in decline since 1988 so maybe Andrew Scheer will be re-elected, but it is not a guarantee.
26 09 05 Tommy Douglas II
The NDP are having a minor civil war in this riding, there was quite the interesting internal fight within the NDP in the riding with three front-running candidates. It took the former NDP MP Lorne Nynstrom three ballots just to win his nomination meetings, leaving his opponents team and supporters bitter. The Conservatives won this riding by default in the last election and if fellow leftist supporters like myself support the Liberals, they should win this riding.
19 09 05 MDF+
Grasping at facts, more like.
Wee Andrew may have corrected his initial error by buying a house in the riding. The fact remains - when he initially moved to Regina, he lived in Wascana constituency and still lived there at the last election. When I took my daughter to vote, Andrew and his wife were voting in the same poll - IN WASCANA.
So, if he lived in Uplands, then he was committing voter fraud. (And a rather stupid fraud at that, since his vote was more likely to be of use to his party in Qu'Appelle than in Wascana.)
Given two possible explanations, I'll stand with Occam and take the simpler one. Andrew Scheerer was a very inept carpetbagger who moved into the wrong riding.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
Lorne Nystrom largely loss not due to his own unpopularity, but due to the unpopularity of the provincial NDP. Since the NDP has improved in Saskatchewan, I think he has a good chance at re-taking this, especially considering he is one of the more centrists NDPers, while Andrew Scheer is one of the more right wing Conservatives. Andrew Scheer may still keep the riding, but I would be surprised if the Conservatives hold all 13 ridings in Saskatchewan they won last time, although I do believe they will keep the majority of them.
14 08 05 Tim
Andrew Scheer lives in Uplands in Regina, which is in Regina Qu'Appelle.
The previous poster claiming that Scheer lives outside the riding sounds like he is grasping at straws.
20 08 05
Conservatives always make me laugh. Someone who critisezes the Sask NDP or Tommy Douglas needs his head checked. You obviously don't know your history. It was the CCF gov't that attracted the most economic growth in the history of Saskatchewan. Don't get me started on Grant Devine. Tommy did move to BC this is true. Why? He lost the 61 election in the riding of Regina. In that election people were pissed because of Medicare. He was also running in an unknown riding to him. His riding was the riding of Assiniboia who elected a fellow names Hazen Argue. The last leader of the CCF who moved to the Liberals. After the election, a member of the NDP resigned against tommys' wishes. Seeing that Saskatchewan didn't want him and seeing an open seat, he took it. But a Conservative wouuldn't do that right? But wait, Joe Clark. Didn't he run in Nova Scotia? and Stockwell Day, wasn't he from Alberta? What's he doing in BC? So who has the double standards? LOOK IT UP BEFORE YOU WRITE!
21 07 05
Andrew Scheer will win this riding, especially now that Nystrom is running. Nystrom supporters make a big deal of Andrew's Ottawa roots. Not surprising since the NDP seems to be afraid of attracting new people to Saskatchewan and instead prefers to scare people out of the province. They've done a great job at doing this the past decade. The carpet-bagger label simply doesn't fly; afterall, the NDP saint Tommy Douglas was one after he ran in BC, where he had never lived and had no roots, when he lost in the federal election in 61. New Democrats being New Democrats, they don't want to be reminded of their own double standards!
I've met Andrew and while he does seem a little shy and awkward, he definately has done a much better job than Nystrom ever did. Despite the hectic schedule of an MP and a new father, Andrew is seen out in the community at local events, plus he doorknocks even outside of election season and he's approachable. All of of course, unlike Nystrom.
08 07 05
Andrew Scheer is a frightened man.
That's what you have to conclude from the fact that he has issued a news release to say he isn't.
In a purely political press release issued on federal Member of Parliament letterhead (does anyone see a problem here?) Scheer claims he is not "afraid" of Nystrom. But Andrew, isn't the fact that you are issuing an MP release about your main political opponent months before an election is even called pretty much proof that you are indeed running scared?
With Saskatchewan ranchers continuing to suffer the fallout of the BSE crisis and the province in need of a much fairer scheme of federal equalization transfers you would think Scheer would be spending his time in Ottawa doing some actual work but apparently not.
Now, you may think it's just me, but look at what former Tory MLA Larry Birkbeck has posted on his blog about Scheer:
"The voters should not forget that Andrew Scheer is an Ottawa boy, who came to Saskatchewan shortly before the election, who knows little about Saskatchewan, who knows even less about agriculture, who has a few months of business experience, who has no degree or special education, who referred to our provincial government as a socialist/communist regime and who is a boy badly in need of some sound Saskatchewan political advice."
It should be noted that Larry Birkbeck used to be Andrew Scheer's boss when they both worked for Alliance MP Larry Spencer.
It might also be noted that, when carpetbagger Scheer moved to Saskatchewan, he didn't even have the sense to get a house in the riding he was proposing to parachute into.
05 07 05 Travis
Andrew Scheer will once again be running against Lorne Nystrom in the election and once again Andrew Scheer will win. After 30 some years as an MP and after being defeated one would think the NDP would want to have some new blood and energy put back into their candidates, but that is not the case. All one has to do to see that Andrew Scheer is in a very good position is the fact it took Lorne Nystrom a former MP, and NDP Leadership hopeful to the third ballot before he was able to receive the nomination as the NDP candidate. As for Conservative support crumbling? It is at around the same numbers as those in the last election where Andrew Scheer defeated Lorne Nystrom. Andrew Scheer has worked extremely hard to represent the voters of Regina-Qu`Appelle and I believe they will re-elect him as their MP.
28 06 05 RP.
I had mixed feelings about Nystrom running again, but by all accounts it was a hard fought nomination battle. Bodes well for him, I think, that the riding is so invigorated.
19 06 05 MDF+
First to Tim - Yes, parts of this riding were, from time to time, part of the old Yorkton - Melville. Wynyard never was. It was not until he was elected in Regina that Lorne ever represented his home town. The only time his late mother ever got to vote for him was in the 1995 leadership race.
Now, MS, the CCF-NDP (as they were in Saskatchewan) were only shut out twice - but those were two elections in a row.
Scheer is certainly the weakest of the three Conservative MPs in Regina.
15 06 05 tlh
I think that Scheer will NOT come back to win again. Sure, we have heard more from him in the form of tired surveys and junk mail. His blog, his debates and his correspondence to the constituency, all portray him as ill-educated. The Conservatives will have to run an air tight case, and not have Scheer speak in public to keep this seat.
11 06 05 ms
I cannot guarantee that this riding will go NDP, but I say it's very possible. Conservative support is crumbling and the NDP is up in the polls. Whoever runs for the dippers this time, the NDP and not going to stand for being shutout of Saskatchewan. Saskatchewan has always been important to the NDP since its days as the CCF. In its entire history, the NDP has only been shut out of this province twice. This is the riding that would most likely go NDP again and so they will target it. Andrew Sheer, I find comes off looking like some arrogant little punk, if you ever watch parliament you know he sounds like a idiot half of the time, using old and used arguments instead of forming his own opinion. This riding, with some luck, will go NDP again.
10 06 05 MB
The Liberals made significant gains in this riding last time taking some Conservative support but mostly NDP voters. The NDP and the Liberals may very well split vote again and therefore allow Mr Scheer to win but this is by no means a Conservative seats. Lorne Nystrom has not been re-nominated but if he is the former situation will most likely happen. If the NDP nominate a new candidate who does not have the name recognition of Nystrom the Liberals could pick up the votes needed to win. There is also twelve reserves in this riding and 15% the entire riding is First Nations. The Conservatives get almost no First Nations vote. If the First Nation turn out on mass to turf Scheer, who got lambasted by First Nations people for comments that he made at a debate last year, this riding could go to either the NDP or the Liberals. If the NDP and the Liberals split again they will end up election Scheer to the second term. It will be an interesting riding to watch
06 06 05 Tim
MDF+: You are half right. Lorne was elected to Qu'Appelle in 1997. However, because of redistribution over the decades, Lorne had represented most of the rural areas of the riding for the vast majority of his time in office.
For example, when he was first elected to Yorkton Melville, Cupar, Wynyard, Ituna, and most of the towns within were in that riding.
Without checking, I believe that only the city of Regina, and the areas south of the Qu'Appelle valley are the only areas that were never in the old riding of Yorkton Melville.
23 05 05 Travis
Mr. Scheer last election ran against one of the more popular NDP MPs in Canada, and because of this it is a good sign that he will be re-elected. Mr. Scheer is very visible in the riding, and the issues he ran on are the kind of issues that are important to the voters of Regina—Qu'Appelle.
13 05 05 saskman
I think this should be at least a tosse up. This was for many elections thought to be the safest ndp seat in the country. Last time a tough ndp buget and the liberal targeting first nation's vote gave the seat to the con. The con only won last time because of vote splittng. The liberal vote will be down this time and lots of people who voted liberal last time will see the ndp as their only chance to get rid of a very weak MP.
10 05 05 Quiring
In general I think it is going to be difficult to unseat the Cons. incumbents in Saskatchewan. That being said I think that the NDP could regain the three Regina seats currently held by the tories. The Liberals did very well in the riding last time and seemed to take much of thier new support from the NDP. The Liberals are not going to do as well this time and the NDP could see a jump. The Tories did not win this seat by much last time and their incumbent is the weakest of their three Regina members. I would put this seat in the TCTC column for now and wait to see how the campaign plays out.
09 05 05 Matthew Grant
I think Andrew Scheer should take this riding again. In the past 6 months I have heard more from Mr. Scheer than I had in the previous 30 years with Lorne Nystrom and what I'm hearing from him resonates with the the people that I talk to. His stance on crime, same-sex marriage and agriculture are winning issues and he's on the right side for the people of Regina Qu'appelle. That and the big city socialism espoused by the Jack Layton New Democrats does not fly in much of the riding, and that includes the city of regina. People here are different than in toronto and Mr. Laytons support in all the polls shows that. It also doesn't appear that the liberal support is diminishing in Sask as much as it has in other provinces and as such it should be a tight three way race with Mr. Scheer coming out on top
08 05 05 MDF+
Although Lorne Nystrom was an MP for more than 40 years, he was only MP for this riding for seven.
04 05 05 Nick Boragina
With Nystrom gone, and with him losing here last time, no NDPer can win this riding really. The tories have enough of a lead here to coushin them next time around, regardless of the candidate. CPC win.
04 05 05 Tim
This seat will likely stay blue. Andrew Scheer has been more active in this riding in 10 months than Lorne was in 34 years. He has an excellent personal reputation. If Lorne runs again, he's toast.
As long as the Conservatives run a tight campaign, the Tory support in Sask should hold. Regina Qu'Appelle has enough rural component to hold off any Liberal swing to the NDP in the city.
The NDP are weak on crime, something North Central Regina is crying out for action.
For the past three elections the socialist support has gone steadily down. Watch for that trend to continue as Scheer wins his second term.
03 05 05 M. Lunn
This will be another close race between the NDP and Conservatives. Andrew Scheer is Larry Spencer's former assistant and one of the more right wing members of the Conservative caucus which likely won't go over well in the urban portions of the riding. The Conservatives are only strong in the rural portion and the reason they won last time was due to a large number of NDP votes migrating to the liberals. If the NDP can win back those votes, they can win back this riding. Even if Lorne Nystrom runs again, he lost in 1993, but then came back in 1997.
03 05 05 RJM
Andrew Scheer should hold this seat for the Conservatives, particularly if Lorne Nystrom runs again. The NDP has a chance if they run a new and strong candidate.

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