5:03 PM 12/01/2006

Prediction Changed
5:30 PM 12/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
Dan Banov
Mike Bocking
Keith Henry
Green Party/Parti Vert
Robert Hornsey
Randy Kamp
Erin Knipstrom
Frank Martin

Randy Kamp

2004 Result:
Randy Kamp
Mike Bocking
Blanche Juneau
Tammy Lea Meyer
Scott Etches

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

09 01 06
Kamp and the Conservatives clearly have all of the momentum in this campaign, both nationally and locally. They just held a standing room only rally in Mission with close to 300 people there who were all energized by Chuck Strahl's speech and call to arms. Unless there is a significant change in the national and local campaigns, Kamp should win convincingly. Combine that momentum with the lack of all candidates meetings, and Kamp's opponents won't have a chance to unseat him.
26 12 05 love, sydney
It's a mystery why this is being TCTC, maybe with 26 days of campaigning still left others feel there may be a reversal of fortune/history here? Kamp has brushed some the wrong way, but he's also done the work for his blue constituents. He's also got an impressive machine behind him. Certainly Bocking made a nice run last time and could cut that in half again -- but it would take a major erosion of Grit votes, possible but there is still a positive buzz out there among Martin fans, third-place that they are in this riding.
17 12 05
This is the third election in a row that the Liberals have parachuted a candidate into this riding. That should have little effect on the outcome as they have shown that even with parachuted, weak candidates they will pull 8,000 - 10,000 votes. Conservative MP Randy Kamp has been very visible and active in the community and the party is more of a known quantity this time around. Look for Kamp to increase his margin of victory to over 5,000 votes.
13 12 05
Based on NDP strength in the last provincial and federal elections and the announcement of a parachute candidate just being announced for the Liberals, at this point I'd say a swing to the NDP here is quite likely.
09 12 05 JR
Look to recent municipal election results. The highest numbers of votes went to people with a similar background to Kamp. Also, he has come out in support of the Telus Union in the recent strike and that will probably play to some of the NDP voters.
07 12 05 P. Deshaies
Based on the 2004 results and present polling, this seat should tip over to the NDP, but now that Randy Kamp is well-set as the incumbent, and since a significant part of NDP support is union-based, this is realistically too close to call.
04 12 05 DL
I don't understand why this seat is being predicted for the Conservatives. The NDP came quite close here last time and since that time Conservative support in BC has declined and NDP support has gone up. The NDP also did very well in this area provincially winning one seat and losing the other by an incredibly narrow margin. This area was solidly NDP all through the 70s and 80s. At the very least it should be a toss-up.
16 11 05 Mark R.
Again, as the Conservatives continue to poll very poorly in BC coupled with Gomery negatively affecting the Liberals; this again will buttress NDP support especially in ridings like this one. The provincial NDP did very well in the provincial ridings overlapping this one. The NDP candidate in the last federal election was less than 3,000 votes behind the Conservative candidate and is likely to do better with better polling numbers. I expect the NDP to do as well in BC as they did in '88, especially in the Greater Vancouver Regional District., I think this riding will send an NDP MP to Ottawa.
04 10 05 M. Lunn
I wouldn't be so quick to call this for the NDP. With few exceptions, most polls show them at where they were last election. It is the liberals who have gone up and the Conservatives who have down in BC. Unfortunately for the liberals, this is still too far from the city for them to realistically win this time around, although with rapid growth in Maple Ridge, this may go liberal in 10-15 years from now. That being said, if enough conservatives go over to the liberals, the NDP could come up the middle since they have some strength here, but it is not a stronghold. The Conservatives will likely do worse in terms of popular vote, but with the liberals not being a factor, here, Randy Kamp may still hold his seat. Unlike the south side of the Fraser River, this is not part of the Bible Belt so social conservatism doesn't exactly win many voters over, but people aren't either as scared of social conservatism as they are as one gets closer to the city, which is why the Reform/Alliance use to do really well here in the 90s when the NDP was unpopular due to the provincial government under Glen Clark.
21 06 05 Bear and Ape
We want to caution Mike D, that although the NDP look good now, their support often wanes as election day draws nearer...and that day is still many many months ahead. However we too will stick out necks out and say that the NDP have a very good shot with the right candidate and if they can keep their current momentum. It also helps the NDP that the Conservatives seem to be scowering the churches looking for candidates. So much for a softer image.
09 06 05 Mike D
I'm going to stick my neck out on this one. Bocking proved an aggressive NDP candidate who just needs a bit of a boost to take the seat. That boost is the decline of the Conservatives in the Lower Mainland. Without a massive change in the Conservative fortunes, this seat is slipping away to the NDP.
07 05 05 DW
This will be an NDP-CPC fight. Kamp is invisible and pretty weak, and a strong NDP push could win. However, I do doubt the NDP are going to be that strong in BC this time around.
04 05 05 BLJ
Previous results were: CPC - 38.5%, NDP - 32.7%, Liberal - 21.9%. Unlike last time, the CPC now have incumbency in their favour. It also appears that the Liberals are weaker while the NDP are stronger in this riding. While the NDP did win this area in 1988, that year was when federal NDP support in B.C. was at an all time high. Not a strong CPC riding but a hold nonetheless.
03 05 05 M. Lunn
The NDP only lost by 6% so if more of the liberals switch to the NDP as opposed to the Conservatives an NDP upset is possible. Provincially this is a swing riding and with the liberal vote collapsing, it may become a swing riding federally. Randy Kamp has done a decent job of representing his constituents, but his staunch socially conservative views could hurt him, since this is not the bible belt like areas on the south side of the Fraser River.
03 05 05 hatman
While it was close in 2004, I still believe this riding will go tory blue, although it will be very very close. My main reasoning is, this riding only voted for the NDP - and just barely in 1988. The NDP is not popular enough to regain their 1988 numbers, and will therefore fall short of winning this one.

Submit Information here

Provincial Index
Federal Election - 2006
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Milton Chan, 1999-2005 - Email Webmaster