2:24 AM 19/01/2006

Prediction Changed
12:11 PM 07/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Michael Crawford
Green Party/Parti Vert
Matt G. Greenwood
Betty Zane Hinton
Ken Sommerfeld

Betty Hinton

2004 Result:
Betty Hinton
John O'Fee
Brian Carroll
Grant Fraser
Arjun Singh

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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18 01 06 Stephen G
Kamloops Daily News (Jan. 18/06) published the Mustel Group poll of the riding. Betty Hinton, (Cons) 36.2 %; Michael Crawford (NDP) 28.5 %; Ken Sommerfeld (Lib) 27.3 %; Matt Greenwood (Green) 8%. There were 303 constituents surveyed; margin of error is 5.7, 19 times in 20.
Remarkably similar to the 2004 results, with the NDP and Libs reversing positions, but within the margin of error.
15 01 06 GP in Kamloops
Hinton - I am not sure that she is even running a campaign right now. There are almost no signs around town, at least two of her campaign offices are closed and full of unused signs. Every time that I walk by the downtown office there are a handful of workers standing around, looking rather confused. She hasn't had much press either. So far her campaign has been pretty much limited to a TV commercial where her discombobulated talking head earily floats towards the viewers like a transmission from dimension X. If nothing changes this may be a classic case of overconfidence.
Sommerfeld - Has a limited community profile, especially compared to the popular O'Fee. It would be safe to assume that there will be a significant drop in Liberal support this time around, especially considering the national trends. Unless the Conservatives start acting like they need those votes the vast majority of the lost votes are likely to go over to the NDP.
Greenwood - I am voting Green myself, but Matt does not have the same community profile as Fraser. Expect lost votes, once agian they will mostly go to the NDP, are you seeing a pattern yet?
Crawford - If there is one thing that Crawford has running for him, it is that he has very strong backing and a high profile within the local NDP, probably the strongest since Riis. He has a lot of political experience, and was most recently the riding assosiations president before entering the nomination process. I walk by his campaign office every day
and there are always people there, working the phones, making signs, huddled meetings. In other words, it just looks like a winning campaign.
Crawford has also been gifted with a lot of 'newsmaking' too due to some poorly timed and ill-concieved comments, once again, from MLA Kevin Kruger. Kruger's meddling dramatically changed the results of the recent municipal election, and the response to his latest foray outside of his jurisdiction has been poorly recieved. In the end Krugers attack on Crawford may give him more political credibility and publicity than anything.
Overall, this race is much closer than many think. In the last election Hinton benifited from the combination of a strong Liberal candidate and a relativly weak NDP candidate. This slate is quite different, with weaker Liberal and Green candidates than last time. The NDP campaign is acting like a campaign that they can win, the Conservatives like its a race that they can't lose, unless that changes dramaticaly in this last week of the campaign Hinton is likely in real trouble.
03 01 06 TK In Kamloops
Riding Will Stay Conservative - Quite Easily
Great Disappointment With Other Predictions, Predicting A Swing Too Easily.
IE: Observe last election, 2004. Liberals had most popular city council member John O'Fee take on incumbent Hinton, still lost. Current Liberal and NDP Candidates haven't even put out election signs as of January 2nd 2006. Right now the Conservative's greatest foe is complacency. Competitors are not politically astute, have no political profile.
18 12 05 love, sydney
No, not another crazy prediction from Sydney. Although there is a trend that says Tory support is slipping in BC, in the hinterland it's rock steady. Hinton is in not trouble, but Thompson will have a respectible showing.
13 12 05 M. Lunn
I agree the Conservatives are in trouble in BC given the fact the best polls have put them at 33%, while some have put them as low as 27%, while they got 36% last time around. That being said, there are about 10 other ridings that the Conservatives are more likely to hold. I expect Betty Hinton to not do particularly well, but neither the Liberals or NDP have a strong enough candidate to unite the non-conservative vote under one banner. Had the NDP managed to get Riis Nielsen to run again, they probably could have taken it, but this will stay conservative.
13 12 05 Gmack
Betty Hinton is at no risk to lose her seat here, even though she didn't win by too much last time. None of the other candidates are that well known in the community.
01 10 05 Mike D
As long as the Conservatives have such low numbers in BC, seats like this one have the potential to switch. This seat is urban enough to vote LIberal and has the NDP history with Riis. I expect Conservative numbers to improve somewhat in the election, but if they don't...
05 05 05 BrianJA
Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo is a riding with the potential to go in three directions, but all require a surge in popularity in BC for the party. It's gone NDP before, and it is a natural Conservative Party, i.e. rural BC. It could even go Liberal, without too much trouble. But this time around, it'll stay Conservative. In order for it to go NDP, the NDP would need to nominate a very strong candidate and just have him pound pavement 20 hours a day. It may be done, and I'd love to be proven wrong, but the Conservatives are too high in the polls right now for this to do anything but remain as blue as the sky on a clear day. Prediction: Conservative hold by a good 3000 votes.
04 05 05 BLJ
The 2004 results were CPC - 40.4%, Liberal - 28.35, NDP - 26.3%, which almost mirrored the overall federal result in B.C., the CPC doing a little better. CPC hold.
04 05 05 M. Lunn
Will likely stay Conservative, but is one of the few interior ridings that could be vulnerable. This was the liberals best showing in the Interior, so while I don't think they can pull it off this time, this is probably their best shot at breaking into the interior once the Sponsorship Scandal blows over. The Conservatives only got 40% as opposed to 45%, which is what they averaged in other interior ridings. It is very difficult to beat someone with 45% of the popular vote unless their vote declines, whereas one can be beaten with 40% if the remaining 60% is dominated by one party. That means if the NDP can choose a strong enough candidate to siphon off enough liberal votes, an NDP upset is possible but unlikely.
03 05 05 hatman
While the NDP has won this in the past, it was more about Nelson Riss than it was about the NDP. So unless he runs- the NDP doesnt have a chance of winning this. They will however finish second, as the Liberals will drop down.

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