10:57 PM 21/01/2006

Prediction Changed
3:30 PM 22/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

New Westminster-Coquitlam
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Green Party/Parti Vert
Sven Biggs
Dawn Black
Dick Estey
Paul Forseth
Joyce Murray
Joseph Theriault
Paul Warnett

Paul Forseth

2004 Result:
Paul Forseth
Steve McClurg
Dave Haggard
Carli Travers
Jack Hummelman

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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20 01 06 David M.
Mustel just released a last minute poll that explicitly notes that:
"The Conservatives have the lead in the suburbs of Greater Vancouver and in the interior. The Liberals lead in the City of Vancouver, whereas the NDP have a dominant position on Vancouver Island (including Victoria) and in the Burnaby/New Westminster area."
Also noted is that "the less affluent tend to support the NDP". Given the facts that provincially, the Liberals are slightly underperforming viz. 2004; that the Coquitlam portion of the riding is likely to go 40-30-30 (with Forseth leader) - leaving Black with enough support to stay competitive, and that the NDP is has a "dominant position" in Burnaby New Westinster, I'll predict an NDP victory here.
08 01 06 love, sydney
There is still no clear leader here. The incumbent is well-known for being do-nothing, although he's masked his previous bone-head ways (pensions are welfare for the aged; gay bashing is just two gangs going at it etc) remains a force because of his machine. After last election's close call it is true he's suddenly been a convert of local affairs, popping up, giving his grimace grin and waving. If any Telus worker who saw him on the picket line was swayed will be a miracle, since he's on record in Hansard as being very anti-union, anti-labour. A Black win is very possible now that the Grit campaign here has stalled; the NDP owns most of this area provincially (except Burpquitlam, where it was a tight race) and they've been milking the St. Mary's Hospital wedge issue at Jan Murray's expense. People in this riding who are fed up with Forseth and leery of Harper will jump behind Black.
08 01 06 Third Party Observer
This will be a race between Forseth and Black, but I think Forseth will win. Here are the reasons why:
1) Murray is bringing back the economy is good card, but she forgot she just used it in May and voters in New West rejected that. Why would she stick with a failure strategy puzzles me.
2) Black might gain votes from the provincial result, but some Liberal votes will shift to Forseth and the Conservative as seen in recent BC poll numbers.
07 01 06 Fabian B
Elections Canada has split this riding to cover New Westminster exactly in half though its impact on the January 23 results is uncertain. A previous poster correctly notes that "Forseth seems to show up to everything in New Westminster where I live" and I must agree. I know that marched on the cold raining streets with the striking Telus workers almost every every day in the Fall which is frankly amazing. He might garner many "respect votes" from traditionally Blue Collar union members for his actions here.
Whether its enough for Forseth to overcome the NDP resurgence here is uncertain. Dawn Black was the incumbent in New Westminster from 1988 to 1993 but that was 12 Years ago and the riding didn't cover Coquitlam. Perhaps, the team with the best election machine will win. Forseth definitely has a strong Machine since he always manages to pull out close wins in 1993 and 2004. Joyce Murray's Liberal candidacy will help the NDP's more than the Liberals since it will cause most NDP supporters here to stay with Black but Forseth's high profile and constant appearances at NW and Coquitkam community events might help him eke out another Conservative win. As an Aside, the famous New Westy Burger poll predicted a close Mayoral race in New Westminster in 2005 but in the end, the incumbent won decisively. Incumbency can count for a lot on Election day if you have a strong team to mobilize your supporters and get out your vote.
05 01 06 Les
I think this riding will be very close as usual but predict that Paul Forseth will take it. Joyce Murray will take votes from the left as well as the right because of her left-wing views on the environment and social issues. Forseth is viewed as strong on crime and good for small business. He's been very visible in the community and has earned the respect of many constituents. There are a lot of NDP voters in New Westminster who are more likely to vote NDP this time around, splitting the Liberal-NDP vote. This race is between the Conservatives and the NDP, but I think the Conservatives will come out on top. Forseth always seems to find a way to win.
01 01 06 Jim
I predict a close win for Forseth. Murray (Liberal) is in fantasyland as a Liberal has not been elected here from forever, save one time in Trudeaumania of 1968. Before that you have to go back to 1949 for a Liberal. It had been solid NDP country for years until Forseth came along in 1993, and won again in 1997, 2000, and 2004. He will win again because he probably most closely reflects the majority voter view on things. Murray has a couple of big problems. She is representing a very tarnished Party label in non-Liberal friendly territory. Also locals will not forgive her for not going to the wall against the St. Mary's Hospital closure when she was the MLA. For the NDP, Black is a throwback the radical feminist 60-70s. She also does not want to talk too much about her role in the Glen Clarke Provincial NDP government where she was a main operative in the Premier's Office. The Unions will always blindly support Black beyond her true worth. Forseth represents the quieter silent majority, and the riding is changing in demographics to help him. If crime topics become big, no one can touch Forseth on that one, as he was a Court Officer etc before getting in to politics and knows that file very well and has credibility there. Forseth seems to show up to everything in New Westminster where I live. My prediction is a Forseth win by a close but larger margin than last time, with Black number two and Murray much further back in third.
31 12 05 Bernard
Here is some info for the riding from Public Eye Online:
Joyce Murray, the mother of infamous, establishment-side political rapper Babba Brinkman, might have a shot at winning New Westminster-Coquitlam for the federal Liberals. At least that's what the party's internal polls are saying. According to an automated telephone survey conducted by EquiComs for the Murray campaign between December 18 and 19, when asked "Which party will you support?" 23.4 percent of riding residents responded that they would be casting their ballots for the Liberals. By comparison, the New Democrats had 21.9 percent support, with the Conservatives coming in 20.1 percent. But, significantly, 34.6 percent were still undecided or would be voting for another party. A total of 3,077 residents responded to the question, which was obtained by Public Eye.
28 12 05 my two cents
No doubt this will be one of the ridings to watch. The NDP would have been a slam dunk if they hadn't switched candidates. Black is at least still fairly well remembered in New West, but I'm not sure if she has the necessary profile in Coquitlam. Forseth is widely regarded as an awful MP. Joyce Murray is 'the woman who closed St. Mary's Hospital'. Of course, little of that matters - vote-splitting is the key to this riding. Last election, the Liberals' star candidate was a union leader touted as the best hope to topple Forseth. This year's star candidate was a cabinet minister in a provincial "Liberal" government ideologically akin to the Mike Harris Conservatives in Ontario. Vote splitting is more likely to take place between the Liberals and Conservatives than anywhere else. I expect this to be an interestinging riding, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Dawn Black resurrected in Ottawa.
22 12 05 Ben
While I think that the Liberals and NDP will both been in tough in this riding, Paul Forseth is most definitely on his way out the door and he knows it. Anyone who saw Forseth at the Hyack parade this summer can tell that the man knows he's un-liked and out of touch with the voters in this riding.
No doubt this will be one of the few remaining tight 3 way races in the GVRD but the Conservatives are going to be wiped off the urban map this time around in all provinces save Alberta.
Why the NDP and not the Liberals here? I figure there are still lots of teachers and the like who will hold a grudge against Joyce Murray for her role in the Campbell Liberal government's first term.
21 12 05 M. Lunn
According to the famous burger poll, right now the results are 53 Liberals, 39 NDP, and 19 Conservative. While I agree the Liberals are probably a bit on the high side and the Conservatives a bit on the low side, most polls show the Liberals gaining in BC, while falling behind in Central Canada, so I wouldn't be surprised if on election night if BC saves the Liberals as their gains in BC will help compensate for their losses in Quebec and Ontario. It is still early on, but the burger poll has almost always been right on the winner, so whoever is leading in the burger poll on January 20th will probably take this riding. Last provincial election 51% bought Carole James burger and 36% bought a Gordon Campbell burger, while the actual results were 51% NDP and 37% BC Liberals in New Westminster.
20 12 05 BC Voter
I think that most pundits agree that Dawn Black and the NDP were the initial frontrunners to take it over from the Conservatives but I'm afraid Dawn will not be re-elected after over a decade out of the House of Commons, neither will be Forseth. . I think Conservatives may look at around 10 to 12 losses throughout the province of British Columbia and this riding is probably the most obvious one. Now, with the current Liberal numbers and Murray, a known politician in the area they will be able to nail it, even with as much as 2000 votes ahead of Dawn and around 5000 votes or over ahead of Forseth. It will be a Liberal gain, this time around.
"In recent surveys Liberals get as much as 35 % of support in BC and of course get overwhelming support in the Vancouver suburbs and Lower Mainland as a whole"
- But that support is not uniform. The liberals scored huge gains from Haggard's union background and from the scare tactic that an NDP vote was a conservative vote. As it turned out, a liberal vote was a conservative vote, and I doubt the people of this riding will be fooled again. Not to mention Joyce Murray is a weak candidate that might suck a few votes up from the conservatives.
"Now, with the current Liberal numbers"
- tied with the NDP
"Murray, a known politician in the area they will be able to nail it"
- A known, but hated politician. Three words will destroy Murray the second they're uttered: Saint Mary's Hospital. Being the MLA in charge when the hospital was closed does not bode well for her.
It'll go Black, with Forseth and Murray fighting for third.
18 12 05 Victor A.
I think that most pundits agree that Dawn Black and the NDP were the initial frontrunners to take it over from the Conservatives but I'm afraid Dawn will not be re-elected after over a decade out of the House of Commons, neither will be Forseth. In recent surveys Liberals get as much as 35 % of support in BC and of course get overwhelming support in the Vancouver suburbs and Lower Mainland as a whole. I think Conservatives may look at around 10 to 12 losses throughout the province of British Columbia and this riding is probably the most obvious one. Now, with the current Liberal numbers and Murray, a known politician in the area they will be able to nail it, even with as much as 2000 votes ahead of Dawn and around 5000 votes or over ahead of Forseth. It will be a Liberal gain, this time around.
16 12 05 Rob D.
As I posted over on the Vancouver East thread, 2004 third place Liberal candidate Dave Haggard has decided to go on a suicide mission against NDP stalwart Libby Davies in Vancouver East, rather than run and split the vote again here in New Westminster Coquitlam. The left wing vote here will therefore coalesce around former NDP MP Dawn Black, who will soundly defeat Paul Forseth and return to Ottawa.
14 12 05 koby
I see Paul Forseth is up to his old tricks again. This time it was reporter Bill Tieleman that caught him in the act. Take it away Bill: “When it comes to the now-settled question of legalizing same-sex marriage, it is same old, same old for Forseth. In a letter sent to some constituents in November, Forseth argues that recently passed legislation allowing same-sex marriages is leading to the "moral breakdown of society." But Forseth doesn't stop there. Oh no. Giving people the right to legally marry whoever they love is not only causing a moral meltdown, it is also threatening to destroy our economy! "The family has always been the backbone of prosperity of any country ... we need only look at history to prove that. Does the breakdown of the family in Canada concern me? Yes - greatly!" Forseth writes. "Traditionally, Canadians are God-loving, family people with traditional values," he continues, apparently believing that only straight folks can create jobs, hold religious beliefs or even have families. The good news for the Paul Martin Liberals and Jack Layton New Democrats is that Paul Forseth is not alone in his 1950's world. There is a whole party full of Forseths and their leader is Stephen Harper.”
The publication of the story could not have could not have come at a better time for the Liberals and the NDP. Around the same time, Calgary Conservative Rob Anders, of Nelson Mandela is terrorist fame, was making headlines around the Lowermainland for asking Richmond voters what they thought of “homosexual sex marriage” in tax payer funded survey supposedly about crystal meth and crime.
07 12 05 Neighbor
I think is a good example of a riding where the winner will have been chosen by partisan label and partisan label alone. Forseth is an incredibly uninspiring, uninteresting MP who seems to be going nowhere and accomplishing nothing. As many have pointed out, his 2004 election was very much a fluke, and highlighted some of the weird things that can happen under our present electoral system. It's hard to imagine his 100-something vote margin increasing this time around.
The people who are running against him are not much more interesting, and I think ultimately personality will play about zero role in this campaign. This riding has a long NDP tradition (Tommy Douglas even used to represent it at one time) and I think people are going to revert to their old ways this January.
26 11 05 Mike D
Lunn is right-on. Very even-handed analysis, I must say. The NDP could have had this in a slam-dunk but chose to complicate things for themselves by switching candidates, causing much bitterness among some NDP activists. This one is going down to the wire in a three-way fight.
24 11 05 watcher
The last survey that Paul Forseth himself conducted was around May 18th (it was "as of" 10 a.m. on a Tuesday, not sure if May 18th was a Tuesday). 57% of respondents would vote for the Liberals or NDP, and 40% would vote Conservative. Normally, this would mean a Forseth victory by an increased margin, unless there is a REALLY STRONG NDP campaign and a REALLY WEAK Liberal campaign, or vice versa. The current Liberal candidate looks more and more like a recipe for mediocrity (not exactly a recipe for disaster, just mediocrity), so theoretically a REALLY STRONG NDP campaign can accomplish a lot. But since the NDP candidate is Dawn Black, I will reserve my judgment on this one. People can be struck with random strokes of genius, but until then...
Right now Conservative strength in BC isn't much different from May 18th, so holding everything constant, Forseth might get 40% come next election.
23 11 05 M. Lunn
Normally, local candidates only have a minor impact in urban ridings, but considering how close this was last time around, they could make a difference
Conservatives: Paul Forseth barely won and with Joyce Murray being the Liberal candidate, this could hurt him in two ways
1. Left leaning Liberals will likely stick with the NDP rather than cross over to the Liberals to block a Conservative win, therefore allowing the NDP to win.
2. Many federal Conservatives are provincial Liberals who helped Joyce Murray last provincial election, so some Conservatives who are dissatisfied with Stephen Harper's leadership might cross-over to the Liberals meaning a Liberal win
Maybe he will be lucky and get another perfect split allowing him to come up the middle, but don't count on it.
NDP: Dawn Black has some name recognition, but the riding boundaries are quite a bit different than the 80s as well as many of the current voters didn't live in the riding or weren't old enough to vote. In fact someone who was only 1 year old during the 1988 election would be eligible to vote in the upcoming election. That being said, she only needs 114 more votes, which is not too difficult to do.
Liberals: Joyce Murray may face an uphill battle, but she has a few things going for her. New Westminster where she lost last provincial election only makes up a small portion of the riding, most of the population lives in Coquitlam which is more middle of the road vs. left leaning. Dave Haggard being seen as a turncoat probably caused some Liberals to stay home last time around or vote for other parties (I know a few people in this riding who didn't vote for Dave Haggard, but will vote for Joyce Murray). Also her connection to the BC Liberals might be enough to siphon off some of the Red Tories who are becoming increasingly uncomfortable with Stephen Harper's hard-line conservatism.
20 11 05 love, sydney
All the main characters are in line now, with the Libs picking debunct prov-Lib Joyce Murray to challenge Forseth and Black. This ridings demographics lend it to a possible Liberal surprise, under the right conditions, but that's in question now, when you consider that Murray and her track record in Gordon Campbell's gov is less than sparkling. Will she have any better luck wooing worried NDPers than Haggard? Or will the beat-Forseth-at-any-cost forces coagulate behind that 90s woman Black? Could work in Forseth's favour, I'm afraid.
24 10 05 Jonathan
This riding is complicated.
NDP: There are internal troubles to heal.
Conservative: Paul Forseth... I'd say he is the LUCKEST CPC I've ever seen in the GVRD for the last 12 years. He won the riding due to vote split in between the Liberals and the NDP.
Liberal: Hard to fight to win. It is most likely that the NDP will go full blood on the Liberals, and it will be just a matter of who steals the most voter from each other's side.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
I agree that Paul Forseth will have a tough time taking this, yet every election since 1993 people have said he would lose his seat, yet each time he somehow manages to pull it off at the last minute, although I think one can only be lucky so many times. The NDP is strong in New Westminster, but Coquitlam where the majority of the population lives is more of a three way split as it is no longer a working class area, but more a middle class area. Provincially, the Coquitlam ridings were very close so since the liberal vote splits 50/50 between the provincial NDP and BC Liberals, I suspect it will be a three way race in Coquitlam while New Westminster will go mostly NDP. At this point I would give the NDP the advantage followed closely by the liberals and then the Conservatives.
13 08 05 The Boss
Check this out... both Dawn Black and Carli Travers are lefists... they are both United Church Folk... and they both run, fighting the good fight... can we weld them together to make one super Candidate? Anyone have any glue?
19 07 05 Mike D
Well Dawn Black won the NDP nomination, making this riding a little harder to predict. Less than a third of this riding was represented by Black back in the 80s, so its hard to know how popular she will be relative to McClurg. I can't imagine Forseth winning again with the polls so devastating for the Conservatives in GVRD. In the past, Reform/CA/Con MPs like Forseth have been saved by the traditional Liberal collapse in BC upon the election call. The thing is even if the Liberals collapse this time, what's different from the last few elections is the NDP could easily pick-up those votes instead of the right-wingers. Too soon to call, but I'm guessing its Liberals vs. NDP in here.
26 05 05 Mike D
The NDP is in for a heated nomination fight as ex-MP Dawn Black takes on the guy who almost won the seat last time, Steve McClurg. Considering how soundly Forseth whipped Black twice in a row (1993 and 1997), NDPers would be wise to go with McClurg. The NDP is kicking itself for not investing more into his run this last time. Either McClurg or Black could win, but the odds are better with McClurg (and I'd move this one into the NDP column for sure). Until the NDP nomination is settled, this is too close to call.
16 05 05 Bozard
There is almost no way the NDP will not beat Forseth this time. Last time he squeaked past because of Martin's "Vote Liberal to stop the Tories" nonsense split the vote. That won't fly this time. More Liberal vote will go New Democrat than will go Conservative, as always.
11 05 05 Bear and Ape
Conservative MP owing a debt to Paul Martin #1
One of several Conservatives who won over the NDP last year because of Paul Martin's last minute "Harper is evil and scary" speach. In the hopes of helping his Liberals, he pretty much managed to help the Conservatives and hurt the NDP (and thus his government because there are not enough NDPers to keep the Liberals afloat). This time, most people in BC and Saskatchewan (the two provences where the NDP were hurt the most) are not going to fall for that tactic and vote NDP if they like the party. Having said that, we feel that in this riding the Conservative vote will increase (at liberal expense) but a greater number of people who voted Liberal will vote NDP (like they wanted to last year), bringing the NDP over the top.
09 05 05 hatman
The NDP lost this riding by 113 votes. Not a hard task for them to overcome, and will be easily picked off from the Liberals to win this. While coquitlam is not NDP territory by any stretch of the imagination, the rest of this riding is. People will realise voting Liberal here will be useless and vote NDP to make sure the tories wont get in.
03 05 05 M. Lunn
I would love to see Paul Forseth lose his seat, although I am not so sure it will happen. I suspect like past elections, it will be another tight three way race between the Conservatives, NDP, and Liberals. NDP is really only strong in New Westminster, Conservatives are mostly concentrated in Coquitlam, while liberal support is equally spread out over the riding. Although people usually vote for the party over person, in a riding as competitive as this, the person could make a difference.
02 05 05 koby
I had mixed feelings about Forseth winning. The poor people of New Westminster Coquitlam deserve better, but a good Forseth quote never fails to bring someone considering voting Conservative to their senses. So, some good may come of it yet. Forseth's best known ditty is "Social security is welfare for the aged." My personal favorite, though, is his view that skin head attacks on gay men are really better described as gang on gang violence. "That's my guess, yes, especially where you have alcohol and drugs and mix that with very short-term changing sexual relationships... There's a lot of jealousy... they [homosexuals] are vengeful, and their health isn't very good. [Skinheads bashing gays] is one kind of marginalized group doing its thing against another marginalized sub-group, which essentially has nothing to do with human rights before the law. It's purely one gang going against another gang." Forseth is too weak a candidate to win again. His past, including these and other quotes, will catch up to him. The NDP will take this seat.

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