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New Westminster-Coquitlam
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
12:44 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
1:15 PM 6/26/2004

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Paul Forseth
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Dave Haggard
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Jack Hummelman
Steve McClurg
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Carli Travers

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
New Westminster-Coquitlam-Burnaby (64.6%)
Paul Forseth
Port Moody-Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam (35.4%)
James Moore

2000 Result/Résultats:
21,265 47.28%
12,914 28.71%
5,773 12.84%
3,586 7.97%
1,437 3.20%

New Westminster-Coquitlam-Burnaby
(139/228 polls, 47307/78509 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Port Moody-Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam
(68/238 polls, 25932/91068 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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23/06/04 JE
Email: [hidden]
While I am glad that EP is finally decided to live up to its name by beginning to whittle down the number of ridings listed as TCTC, I am afraid that it has made the wrong prediction here.
One of the more interesting aspects of the COMPAS poll conducted in the neighbouring riding of Surrey North was that, not only were the NDP in second place (at 26%), but that, in the hypothetical situation that Chuck Cadman (and all the other candidates) were to drop out of the race, the NDP would win 37-25-25. This is well within the 5.8% margin of error, and comes from a riding which, in the last election, voted (left-to-right) 8-30-5-54! How many times have I read on this website that it would be "impossible" for the NDP to effect such an increase in its vote?
What I think this poll demonstrates is precisely that the people who have been writing that the NDP is returning to its previous strengths, in its previous strongholds, have (despite the many accusations of pipe-dreams) have been right all along. In this light, both New Westminster-Coquitlam (less extreme than Surrey North last time, at 13-29-8-47) and likely also PoMo-Ww-PoCo (9-29-8-50) should be considered probable NDP gains. From most of the comments previously posted here, it is probable that both Forseth and Moore (unlike Cadman) would rate a negative CETS...
I just hope that, as far as NDP gains (in BC and elsewhere) go, EP isn't allowing itself to be influenced by the completely moronic seat projections coming out of Ipsos-Reid and, to a lesser extent, Global. The most recent Ipsos-Reid seat projection had the BQ at 64-68. You know that's wrong, and I don't need to tell you why.
While I'm at it, I'd like to make a few remarks about the province as a whole. I'm originally from the Okanagan but have been living in Ontario and Quebec for quite some time now, and have encountered many really quite astonishing misconceptions about my home province. (Actually, when I first moved out, no-one had even heard of the Okanagan Valley, and more than one of my friends assumed that Kelowna was spelt Cologna.) But my remarks are not only for "Easterners"; being away from home has sometimes allows one to see things a little more clearly.
While much of BC is socially conservative, very few parts of BC are affluent enough to be genuinely fiscally conservative. I know this goes against the grain of conventional wisdom: the media seems to be constantly telling us that we're all (deep down, at least) socially-liberal-fiscally-conservative, just like Belinda. But, as admirable as that might be, it simply isn't true; and BC shows it more clearly than any other part of the country (with the possible exception of Northern Ontario). My own father is, on economic and social issues, only barely more moderate than Trotsky and Torquemada, respectively. Not kidding (I wish I were).
So this explains why BC voters swing so wildly from one party to another. It is not that their own fundamental beliefs have changed much, but that no Canadian party actually fits them. Which party BC votes for is mostly determined by the mood of the province, meaning: which half of its political beliefs seem more important and the current time. (Other factors such as the popularity and political persuasion of the current provincial government, have been discussed thoroughly enough by other people for me to skip over.)
My sense is that, unless Stephen Harper makes an abrupt U-turn on his handling of social issues (i.e., being much more brazenly right-wing), the average BC voter will think "what's the point of voting for him?"; they will vote NDP, because they feel the battle (against gay marriage, for example) has already been lost, and that therefore they may as well move on to the next one (for much, much, much, more health spending, for example).
23/06/04 Happy Guy
Email: [hidden]
Conservative? Are you serious. The Tories will come third here, absolutely. Forseth was outside of the Liberal rally yesterday, and couldn't even bring more than one or two supporters with him -- everyone else was from another riding -- Forseth is going down, down, down.
If the Libs don't win, the NDP will win for sure.
23/06/04 Brent
Email: blondboybc@yahoo.ca
The change from too close to Conservative does not support the general opinion and poll results of this area of Metro Van. The Conservative/Alliance are much weaker in the New West, PoCo areas than last election, where a good chunk of their vote was more a Western protest vote. At most to close to call, but giving the edge to the NDP. Prediction: NDP 35, Cons 31, Libs 27, Greens 6
23/06/04 Matt
Email: [hidden]
Dave Haggart is a strong candidate in this riding which is primarily blue collar, I look for him to garner a strong vote from the working class "white male" in this riding, something that the liberals are stuggling to do throughout the prairies and BC. Look for Haggart to win this one in a very close battle.
22/06/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
Here's a quote from Paul Forseth to keep in mind: "Old age security is welfare for the aged."
That doesn't go over well for people here. I used to live under him and most people in the region see him as a terrible MP (which he is). He hasn't been involved in the community from anything that I have seen and has appear to do nothing for his ridding. So I think he's going to be sent packing.
The question is who's going to replace him. Personally I think it will be the NDP but the Liberal candidate could gain quite a bit of ground. It's gonna be a close one I think.
15/06/04 Phil
Email: [hidden]
I think the Conservative, (post-alliance) vote is relatively weak in this riding. A lot of their support was due to western alienation and that isn't a factor in this election. Most Conservative ridings in BC including this one will suffer from Harpers focus on Ontario and Quebec. Meanwhile the Conservative candidate, Forseth keeps getting quoted in the press making racist and homophobic statements. The Liberal candidate, Haggard doesn't live in the riding and isn't getting much support from his party, so I predict he'll come in 3rd. As the boundry change added areas to this riding that should increase the hard NDP vote and as I think the NDP candidate, McClurg will pull in soft votes from both the Liberals and Conservative (Alliance), I pick the NDP to win this riding.
12/06/04 g. debrun
Email: [hidden]
It's becoming a closer horse race than people thought, and there is still room for the incumbent to lose it. He's had rather uninspired effort on the hustings, waffled at podium after podium, but has a strong machine carrying him. Haggard has made inroads, however, and with the NDP's undertaker McClurg living on fumes of yesteryear, those who want anything but neo-Con are giving the Liberal star candidate a good look.
04/06/04 Jermaine Defoe
Email: [hidden]
The Georgia Straight has also heard Haggard is thinking about pulling out. From the most recent issue...
IS "STAR" LIBERAL candidate Dave Haggard, the former IWA Canada president and previously lifelong New Democrat, about to drop out of the election in mid-campaign?
Rumours emanating from Haggard's campaign in New Westminster­Coquitlam indicate that the newly minted Liberal has been shocked and disheartened by the negative reaction he is getting from voters in the riding. A federal Liberal source says some of Haggard's campaign volunteers are considering leaving and he is demanding significant help from the Martin team to avoid the embarrassment of finishing third or even worse in the election.
If Haggard isn't propped up by promises of a big federal project for his adopted riding, he is threatening to pull the plug, the source says, leaving the Liberals to find a new candidate with just weeks before the vote.
Ironically, had Haggard maintained his NDP membership and run as a federal candidate in his home riding of Nanaimo-Alberni, he would likely have been heading for Ottawa after the election as a new NDP MP.
03/06/04 David Banks
Email: [hidden]
Hey Curious, the Georgia Strait had a blurb about Haggard's cold feet in today's edition. As long as I'm here, I may as well make a prediction. Boundary changes notwhithstanding, I beleive that Forseth will take the riding.
03/06/04 Chris
Email: [hidden]
I have to strongly disagree with the assertion that "the NDP candidate is weak"... Steve McClurg won the debate at the all-candidates meeting hands down, and Forseth was clearly flustered.... during the debate he seemed to shift his attacks from the Liberals to the NDP, when it became apparent that Mr. McClurg and the NDP are a force to be taken seriously in this region. Mr. McClurg is the only candidate who even LIVES in the riding! The party has designated New Westminster-Coquitlam as a priority riding... the NDP looks strong, and like a good bet, in New Westminster-Coquitlam.
02/06/04 Curious
Email: [hidden]
I was reading a rumour that the reason Martin was in Vancouver yesterday (with only one, morning walk through a senior's home on his ittinerary) was that Haggard was having cold feet and was about to bolt. Paul Wells even went with it on his Blog, though shortly afterwards it was pulled.
Anyone know anything about this? Are things that bad for the Liberals in BC right now?
06/05/04 Liu Bang
Email: [hidden]
Dave Haggard will come third. The Conservative vote is coming apart in BC, but Forseth, the reform-alliance-conservative incumbent stands a good chance of keeping the seat nonetheless because the NDP candidate seems relatively weak.
04/05/04 JH
Email: [hidden]
It's going to be a very close race between the NDP and the Liberals, with the Conservatives way behind. The only reason why a riding like this voted for Forseth before was because he was running for the Reform Party. Now that the Conservatives are simply a neo-Con group with no populist appeal -- sucking up to Easterners in a way that they haven't since Brian Mulroney -- ridings like New West will be looking for someone else. The NDP makes the most sense from a party point of view. Dave Haggard makes most sense from a candidate point of view. Haggard in a squeaker.
01/05/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
Paul Willcocks has a full column and Dave Haggard and points to all the baggage he will have to carry into an election. Any hope of him getting significant left support is gone. And getting right wing support as a union leader? Dream on. The same people that are involved with the BC Liberals are the ones running the federal Liberals in BC. The BC Liberals have the advantage of no party to the right of it. Martin and crew suffer from having the CPCs existence. Haggard third
29/04/04 JRFD
Email: [hidden]
Haggard is no threat here at all. Do you think the average vote really knows who he is or even that it would sway their vote if they did? Haggard is a union guy with no support within the movement. Infact Haggard will likely draw more volunteers to Steve McClurg with many in the movement pissed off at him for going to the Liberals. McClurg on the otherhand has a fantastic record on protecting workers having done lots of work on a deal to protect workers and volunteers during the 2010 Olympic games. This is traditional NDP area and with Laytonmania and an unpopular BC Liberal government it'll revert back to it's old voting pattern.
28/04/04 Objective Observer
Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca
Under the previous incarnation of this riding during the 1997 election, the electoral contest was a relatively close 3-way race with the then Reform incumbent. New Wesminster is traditionaly not a conservative area and, with the CPC falling in support, I would think that this riding (among all of the CPC ridings predicted so far) should be in the toss-up category, at least for the present time.
24/04/04 Phillip
Email: [hidden]
Dave Haggard is a great candidate. He will steal votes both from the left and the right ... and win this one for the Libs.
24/04/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
There is no way that this seat shudol be listed as a Conservative hold. Tory support in Bc is CRASHING and burnbing in every single poll. They are down over 20 points and the NDP is up 20 points. This is a classic example of a riding that was an old NDP stronghold under Pauline Jewett etc... and will swing right back to its traditional leaning. On top of that Paul Forseth is known to be just about the most dradful of all Alliance MPs.
The Liberal stunt of vetoeing candiadtes to make way for a Martin crony will further damage Liberal chances. There are no forestry workers in this seat, so why would anyone cross over to vote liberal just because they have parachuted in a Forest union leader.
NDP by 2,000 votes.
24/04/04 Mike D
Haggard will not have any advantage in union votes. Most other unions are at odds with the IWA right now over the IWA tactics, and Haggard is no longer popular even in the IWA. He is jumping while the jumping is good, before he gets the boot. Note: he decided not to run in Nanaimo-Alberni where if he was popular with the IWA and unions in general, he should have run. Seriously, this is a two-way race between the NDP and Conservatives, both with unspectacular candidates but at least better than Haggard. Too close to call.
23/04/04 Scott G.
Email: [hidden]
Will it make any difference if the Liberals run former IWA official Dave Haggard here? Probably not. This is a seat with a long-serving incumbent opposition member. Haggard may get some votes from the NDP and the Tories. He'll need all of these votes and then some to catch up with Paul Forseth (although I realize this is an approximation, because one third of the new riding is currently in fellow Tory MP James Moore's riding).
I think many NDP supporters won't go over to Haggard, and he'll alienate Liberal voters who consider themselves environmentalists or social democrats.
Like fellow appointed candidate David Emerson, also from the forest industry, Dave Haggard would have a chance in an Interior or Vancouver Island riding, but not in the Greater Vancouver riding where he's running.
19/04/04 Harry
Email: [hidden]
With rumours of Dave Haggard of the IWA running here, the Liberals have a really good shot. Haggard has charisma, lots of union votes here - they will steal votes away from Layton's way-out-there NDP. If Haggard and Dosanjh have both bolted from the NDP in BC, that shows that things are not good internally in that party.
20/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
So many ridings in BC are strong races. This is a old NDP riding, you just cant say for sure yet.
19/03/04 Ian King
Email: vancouverscrum@myrealbox.com
Yoshida would be correct about the Liberals and NDP if he'd said "they haven't nominated candidates yet", but then again, Adam Yoshida has always been rather... uh... creative in his thanking. This riding takes in the older part of Coquitlam, as well as half of New West. Forseth has been one of the weaker MPs in the Reform/Alliance, and has long benefitred from the fact that the non-Reform voted never coalesced around either the Grits or NDP, letting him sneak through to the win. With the electorate in BC being as volatile as ever, any one of the three parties could take the riding, but expect the NDP to be a much stronger force this time around. Call me back when the candidates have actually been nominated and then I might be able to say something about their capabilities.
Did I happen to mention that Harvard's continuing education school doesn't have any entrance requirements?
19/03/04 M.W.
Email: mijawara@yahoo.com
I'm calling Burnaby-New West and maybe Port Moody-Westwood-PoCo for the NDP, but predicting the party could win this seat would be outlandish. The New Democrats have soared to over 25% in BC, and the combined Tory/Alliance vote is crashing. Still, Forseth's an incumbent with high name recognition in the area, and there's no Peter Julian or Charley King to carry the NDP standard here. Easy Conservative hold, unless the NDP hits 40% in BC or Harper admits to dealing drugs out of Stornoway.
17/03/04 JRFD
Email: [hidden]
The NDP has a weak candidate? The nomination hasn't even happened yet. I'm quite confident the NDP will have a strong candidate after the hotly contested nomination meeting on Sunday. (4 candidates!) I understand things are going better for the NDP than expected here, so much so that Jack Layton is going to be at the meeting on Sunday. Forsyth has be an appallingly weak MP for the area and isn't that well known to the voters in his old riding nevermind the voters that weren't in his riding before. Stay tuned, this one isn't over yet.
17/03/04 Ghoris
Email: [hidden]
It's very interesting that Mr. Yoshida says that the NDP and Liberals have both nominated weak candidates, given that the NDP nomination meeting is not until March 21 and the Liberals haven't even set a date yet. I didn't realize there were CPC spin doctors at Harvard!
I think this will be a very tight three-way race, but a Liberal party tainted by scandal and a Conservative party in free-fall in urban B.C. will allow the NDP to squeeze up the middle.
17/03/04 P. Kelly
Email: [hidden]
With the conservatives running in third in BC, this is one of the eastern suburban seats that the NDP will likely win. 2000 voting trends are not applicable this time around. NDP Gain.
15/03/04 Adam Teiichi Yoshida
Email: ayoshida@fas.harvard.edu
The Liberals and NDP both have weak candidates here. Forseth has been a good MP. Conservative in a walk.

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