5:05 PM 12/01/2006

Prediction Changed
5:27 PM 12/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Lewis Dahlby
Green Party/Parti Vert
Scott Froom
Jon Kingsbury
James Moore
Mary Woo Sims
Greg Watrich

James Moore

2004 Result:
James Moore
Kwangyul Peck
Charley King
Richard Voigt
Lewis Dahlby
Pat Goff
George Gidora

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

Authorized by the Official Agent for Greg Watrich
11 01 06 Know something
It's time to call this one Conservative.
Greg Watrich may give Moore a run for the So-Con vote, but this doesn't pose a real threat. With poor candidates like Kingsbury (Libs) and Sims (NDP) alienating their traditional supporters, there will be plenty of votes for Moore as the only credible choice.
10 01 06 Henry T
As a resident, I agree that this should be move to James Moore. He will always poll above the federal Conservatives, and they are riding high nationally right now. Even if they are polling lower in BC, Moore will have enough support locally to win. There has simply been an insufficient visible challenge from any of the other candidates. Barring a major gaffe nationally, and a gaffe by Moore locally, in the next 2 weeks, the next question should be what cabinet position for Moore?
06 01 06 M. Lunn
I am now moving this back to the Conservative column. They are high enough in the polls that even if the fall back again as I expect them to, I cannot see James Moore losing his seat. This riding is rather interesting since you have Jon Kingsbury who is a right-leaning Liberal while James Moore who is one of the most moderate members in caucus. As for Greg Watrich, he won't even get above 5% as SSM is not an issue for many voters other than a few fundamentalist.
05 01 06 D.Ray
Moore is one of the hardest working, most visible MPs in BC, and there's no reason for a backlash in this riding against him or the Conservatives. Anyone who thinks Conservatives to the extreme right of Moore will switch their votes over same-sex marriage to THE PARTY THAT INTRODUCED AND PASSED THE BILL IN THE FIRST PLACE is dreaming...
04 01 06 JC
Jon Kingsbury is going to win this riding, I think that people have forgotten that Greg Watrich is likely to take votes away from James Moore because of his positions on Abortion and Same-Sex Marriage. Kingsbury is a very conservative liberal and he might be able to get some votes from Moore because of these positions. I should point out that Kingsbury barely lost the mayoral election by around 49 votes. He is still reasonably popular while tory popularity is still up in the air. I have been watching the polls but I should point out the Strategic Counsel poll had a large margin of error because they asked only 133 votes.
02 01 06 my two cents
Conservatives generally have little chance of success in urban centres here on the Left Coast. Having said that, Moore is not your typical conservative. He is one of only three (two, since Belinda Stronach crossed the floor) Conservative MPs to support SSM. While this position may lose him a few social conservative votes, his socially moderate status provides a safe haven for disenchanted Liberals looking for alternatives. In the end, his moderation will probably win him more votes than it loses him. The deciding factor will be where the NDP vote goes - the Liberals or the Conservatives. As a prominent Chinese Canadian, who enjoyed a high-profile position as head of the now-defunct B.C. Human Rights Tribunal, Mary Woo Sims is DEFINATELY a star candidate. A star candidate way too far to the left to win in the tri-cities. If this were Vancouver-East she'd have a good shot, but it is not. Being Chinese Canadian means nothing here - Chinese culture is MUCH more conservative than Sims. For Kingsbury to beat the moderate Moore, he will have to take most of last election's NDP vote. I just don't see that happening.
29 12 05 port moody resident
I still think Moore is going to win. Yes, the Conservative support is down in bc generally, but locally Moore is really very well liked and heavily supported. Plus Liberals always are ahead in the polls but seem to crash towards the end of the election. The NDP are NOT in contention here, so wipe that from any consideration. This is a Liberal versus Conservative area, and Moore will win. I would predict 40% Moore 34% Liberal 25% NDP.
28 12 05 M. Lunn
I am moving this back to the too close to call column. I have tough time imagining James Moore losing his seat, yet with every poll ranging from the SES which shows the Liberals 6-9 points ahead nationally to Ipsos reid which shows the two parties tied, they have all been consistent that the Liberals are around ten points ahead in BC. At the beginning of the campaign, it showed the two parties tied, but with the Liberals gaining momentum in BC at least, this cannot be ignored. In the New Year when it becomes clearer on the trends, I will hopefully be able to move this into either the Tory or Liberal column.
27 12 05 Victor A.
Now, I'm convinced Moore is a good constituency MP but the fact that he allienated the right wing of the Conservative Party with his SSM vote and with Conservatives polling distant 3rd in the Lower Mainland and greater Vancouver, it will be Moore's undoing.
24 12 05 decided voter
This riding is more Conservative than the province. Moore has a strong following and lots of support on the ground. The Liberals will gain, the NDP will drop, and Moore will get in with a strong showing and will be the BC cabinet minister for Harper if the tories win government.
24 12 05 watcher
I personally have nothing against John Kingsbury but... why are people assuming that he's popular, when he LOST THE CIVIC ELECTION ON NOVEMBER 19, 2005? Many soft Liberal voters here who have the habit of making some judgment on their candidate before casting their vote ARE NO LONGER GOING TO VOTE LIBERAL! Most of the remaining Liberal voters in this riding justify their vote based on Paul Martin's track records.
I'm guessing the Liberals will finish third here, leaving this race between the NDP and the Conservatives. Lost Liberal votes will split two ways, and whoever captures the most of these votes will win. As had been said many times, Moore voted for gay marriage. Therefore, he has a slight edge. This riding can still go NDP, but right now it looks more like a (non-typical) Conservative one.
Oh and I forgot to talk about Watrich's meddling in this riding. While he's likely to get some votes, Moore will likely keep steady by siphoning votes from the Liberals.
23 12 05 jonforest
Another complication is the decision of Greg Watrich to run as an independent on an anti-ssm platform. Watrich represents social conservatives within the party who were unhappy with Moore's vote in favour of ssm. Watrich should peel away hundreds of votes (maybe a thousand?) from Moore's totals. Given the closeness of the race, it may be the difference. One way or the other, this will be a three-way squeaker.
22 12 05 local voter
Kingsbury is a lazy candidate and not liked in Port Moody or Port Coquitlam, or apparently Coquitlam. Sims is a rookie campaigner and is far too left for this upper middle class area. The NDP will NOT get more votes than last time. Moore is a star, Kingsbury has name recognition, there is a MAJOR difference. Moore will win. My prediction: 42% Moore, Kingsbury 32%, Sims, 23%.
21 12 05 Rick S
Please, easy win here for the tories. Moore might win by a smaller majority but not by much.
With a far-left ndp candidate and a recent coq mayor who lost (albeit by a slim margin), Moore will win again. Remember he beat another "popular" mayor of coq in 2000 to win this seat.
Kingbury is damaged goods and the ndp have no chance.
Moore will take this riding.
18 12 05 C. Swing
Truly this one can go Conservative, Liberal or NDP. However, I think that NDP has a good chance. James Moore is facing attacks from within (the religious right) not to mention the fact that this time around the Liberal candidate actually has some profile in the community (although that profile might not help him, he is well known for being arrogant). In any case Kingsbury will also help to split the right wing vote. Also, Sims has a higher profile then Charley did. I think Moore is worried and so he should be. This time it will not be easy for him. I think it will go NDP.
15 12 05 Mike D
Until recently, I was wondering about Moore's chances. But the NDP has chosen a candidate who alienates even core supporters and the Liberals have chosen an ex-Mayor who was just royally booted out of office. Socially moderate Moore is laughing his way to an easy victory despite the lower CPC poll numbers.
13 12 05 In the know
From what I hear the local NDP had Mary Woo hoisted on them as a candidate by the Central Campaign. They couldn't have picked a worse match. This area is known to produce very moderate-to-conservative New Democrats. The blue-collar types who don't care for the cultural and social issue lefties. This could be the only riding in BC to see NDP vote go down from last election as local New Democrats vote for Moore rather than Sims.
13 12 05 love, sydney
My previous submission was before unceremoniously dumped mayor John Kingsbury took up the Liberal banner - he brings instant name recognition and was very popular on the plateau. There are signs that the former Conservative aide now independent candidate Waitrich (sic) is making inroads through the churches on the hill, reaching out to a good portion of the ethnic anti-SSM vote. Moore should walk away with this, but now that a good slice of NDP voters are willing to hold their nose and cross the name best to beat the Tory, I'm picking this a surprising upset, very tight though, for the Grits.
12 12 05 Too Far Gone
Moore in a walk. Kingsbury is disliked by many people, this riding has never been a Liberal stronghold anyway, and the bad memories of Lou Sekora are too fresh in the minds of voters for this to go Liberal, despite a provincial surge. Besides, the CPC tends to profit when the NDP numbers are down. The NDP is down in BC anyway, and Mary Woo Sims is a weak candidate for the NDP anyway. I agree with predictions that put Moore in the 50% range.
11 12 05 chris
James, no problem. The Liberals are running a failed former mayor with no team, and the ndp candidate is far out to the left, far too left for this wealthy suburb. Moore will win.
11 12 05 Local Resident
James Moore is headed to a bigger victory than last time. The NDP vote, which jumped from 8% to 27% last election, is in full collapse. The NDP candidate Mary Woo Sims is from the far left of the NDP and has no roots or connection to this riding. In this riding, the Conservatives and NDP often compete for the same blue collar vote, particularly in Port Coquitlam. Those voters, who have been returning to the NDP Federally and elected Mike Farnworth provincially, will not be able to stomach voting for a candidate associated with far left social issues like Mary Woo Sims.
09 12 05 Tony
This one just moved into the Liberal column. Word is the Liberals have nominated Jon Kingsbury as their candidate. Out here in the Tri-Cities Jon - the longtime Mayor of Coquitlam is a household name.
Look for Kingsbury to steal a tonne of Moore's votes, and for traditional NDP supporters to back the Liberals to prevent a Harper government. The NDP is running Mary Woo Sims ... who is less than credible, and will offend most New Democrats.
08 12 05 Mark R.
The polling numbers for the Conservatives in BC are disastrous and for anyone to think that James Moore will win this riding hands down is simply dealing with emotion and not fact. There is a significant shift in voting patterns since the election in 2004. The recent provincial election results clearly show momentum, credibility, & acceptability of the federal NDP. It is very possible that the Conservatives may be extinct in the GVRD. I have spoke with campaign workers in the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island and there is clearly a sea change in voter interest with the federal NDP and away from the Conservatives. Vote splitting will affect many BC ridings and this is one of them. It will be close but I suspect Moore's days as an MP are numbered.
07 12 05 AJW
Jon Kingsbury is the Liberal, but he is known as a very weak campaigner. The NDP candidate is far too left wing for the area. Moore is well known and really liked in the area by all communities. He should win no problem.
07 12 05 Mr. Pundit
James Moore, but this time with over 50% of the vote.
Jon Kingsbury will increase the Liberal vote, but won't crack 35%.
The NDP? Toast. Too bad though. It looked like they finally had their act together last time. They were organized and they nominated at least a credible candidate after a string of embarrassing losses and candidates (remember Jamie Arden?) But now Mary Woo Sims? The NDP is its own worst enemy in this riding.
07 12 05 Resident
Moore is safe. The riding has a large Chinese population, but the fact remains that they tend to largely stay at home on voting night. Unlike some other ethnic communities in BC, ie: Indo-Canadians, the Chinese population does not tend to blindly mobilize in favor of "one of their own." Kwangyul Peck was a horrible candidate last time, and his ethnicity appears to have done very little to help him. I imagine it will be the same story for Ms. Sims.
Jon Kingsbury, the Liberal guy, was always a very polarizing mayor in Coquitlam. The fact that he is running for a seat in the parliament literally days after loosing city hall does little to dispel the stereotypes that he is little more than an opportunistic, career politician. What's even more damning is the fact that he is now calling himself a Liberal despite the fact that he had previously sought nomination as a Reform candidate back in the day, AND has just finished trying to win re-election to the mayor's office through a "slate" coalition run by a gang of Conservative and BC Liberal organizers. The riding also contains large chunks of other cities, and outside of Coquitlam he's barely known. Coquitlam is BC's fifth largest city, yet Kingsbury is easily one of the province's most obscure figures. At the end of the day he's simply not a good politician.
Moore is a talented campaigner, but he's really getting his victories handed to him with these lackluster candidates. True, most voters vote nationally, but Moore has a level of star power that makes him a well-known figure in the riding. This is not a race between three partisan nobodies, but rather a popular MP and two unpopular local politicians, both of whom have just finished loosing municipal elections.
Editor's note: Kwangyul Peck is actually of Korean descent.
07 12 05 Liberal Win
With the latest polls showing the Conservatives dropping the GVRD, and with the Liberals announcing former Moore supporter and Coquitlam Mayor Jon Kingsbury as their star candidate, and with a lot of NDPers upset with the nomination of far-left candidate Mary Woo Sims as their candidate, the recipe is right for this riding to swing back to the Liberals.
05 12 05 quasar
Intelligent, popular MP will get re-elected again. Moore won by a comfy margin last time round, and with his incumbent factor (he has represented this riding for quite some time already), he will increase his margin of win, especially with his vote for SSM which might steal some votes from regular Liberal voters (who want change, but don't like social conservatism).
05 12 05 Seth Bullock
With the Liberals now running a star candidate in former Coquitlam Mayor Jon Kingsbury, I think the NDP will win this riding. Kingsbury is right-wing and will do well in Westwood Plateau and split the vote with Moore in that area. The Conservatives did not expect Kingsbury to run as he was seen as one of theirs. With Kingsbury/Moore splitting Westwood Plateau, the NDP will be able to ride a victory in Port Coquitlam to Ottawa. Despite the fact the NDP candidate this time is much more left-wing than the previous candidate and is not as in-tune with the riding, the NDP brand is still strong enough in PoCo to win there and with a split in the rest of the riding between Watrich (who has money and support from former Reform MP Sharon Hayes)/Kingsbury/Moore.
05 12 05 Observationist
Moore will win a slam dunk. The Liberals in disarray and the NDP is not running a serious candidate. Watrich will take a chunk of Moore's vote (5%) but not enough. The Liberals will hold at 27% (they always do) and the NDP cannot make the gains needed to win this seat, not with this candidate. Moore 42% Liberal 27% Sims/NDP 22% Watrich 5% Green 4%
02 12 05 local resident
A better NDP candidate than last time (King's campaign was frankly embarrassing) but it's difficult to see Moore being toppled. Popular locally - his SSM stance will have gained him as many votes as it lost - and Port Moody seems to like reelecting incumbents at all levels of government. Saying this is too close to call is wrong - the Tories have a definite advantage at this time.
01 12 05 love, sydney
As much as I respect Mary Woo Sims, her poor showing in the local council race barely put a dent in her profile, while Moore, a bit of a know-it-all but respected for his demeanour, can win it in a walk. Only a popular Lib could even make it close and there is none to be found (Trasolini in '08?)... If anything is going to put a dent in Moore's vote, it will be if the ethnic and anti-same sex marriage vote finds a suitable candidate from one of the major parties. There's an independent, former Cons. backroom guy, who is running for just that purpose. Unfortunately, the Libs have no name candidate to capitalize on this possible but unlikely complete split.
30 11 05 Herb
Christy Clark will not be running, according to Marissen. The Libs need another candiate with a Name if they want this seat. If not, Moore will repeat.
29 11 05 BH
With the Conservatives having taken a dive in the polls from their 2004 results in the GVRD of BC and with the Liberals have little organization in this riding and with a former member of James Moore's riding executive running against him on his pro-vote for gay marriage, and with the news that the NDP is set to run high profile Chinese Canadian candidate Mary Woo Sims; I'd say this one just got a whole lot more interesting.
29 11 05 M. Lunn
Now that the Conservatives have moved from the low 20s, to around 30%, I am ready to move this back to the Conservative column. The Conservatives will likely lose seats in BC, but mostly in the close races such as neighbouring New Westminster-Coquitlam and maybe Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission, but not this riding. James Moore has enough popularity to help him win as well as the Liberals are strong in the Westwood Plateau while the NDP is strong in Port Coquitlam, while the Conservative vote is in the high 30s to low 40s throughout the riding.
27 11 05
If moore was not running this seat would more of a fight between the ndp and the conservatives liberals are only dreaming of winning this seat because they will be lucky to hang to the seats that they already have in bc.even though the liberals won the byelection in 1998 the liberals have not won this seat in a general election since 1949.
27 11 05 Al
Hmm.... this one may start to be interesting. A former member of the conservative riding assoc Greg Watrich has decided to run. He will focus on getting the So-Con vote. This will take away votes from Moore and potentially make it a three way open race.
21 11 05 no doubt
Moore will surely win. Yes cpc numbers are down, but this is a wealthy suburb. The NDP got pounded in half this riding provincially, and in poco, Farnworth barely beat the BC Liberal and it was one of the only ridings where the rightwing vote increased from last time. Moore is easily the most popular and respected politician in the region and there is no serious ndp or liberal candidate running. it may be closer than last time, but Moore is very strong and popular and will win.
14 11 05 F. Railway
I'm not so sure about Moore's re-election, primarily because of the low polling of the Cons. Yes Moore is a moderate and has done well carving out his own identity in the Conservative Party, but his aspirations may come back to hurt him. He is always seen stumping for Harper, and next to Reynolds, he is seen as the Conservative No. 2 guy in BC - not very enviable shoes when the Cons are polling so low regionally. And now I'm reading that Moore himself is unsure about his chances of re-election (see politicswatch.com). Despite the above, the Liberals can't put a no-name candidate in this riding, because Moore still has a strong base of support. 24000 Liberal and NDP combined-votes in the last election versus 18000 for Moore; depending on the Lib candidate, this ought to be real close.
14 11 05 Mark R.
If the poor polling results continue for the Conservatives, no matter how popular Mr. Moore is, he will probably lose. PC MP Gerry St. Germain represented part of this area and was soundly defeated by the NDP when the Conservative polling numbers were slightly better then they are now. The rotting stench of Gomery will likely turn more voters to the NDP than the Liberals in this riding anyways. What does this mean? No one expected the provincial NDP to do so well in the recent provincial election. The NDP are back at the federal level too. The closeness of 3-party races in BC, especially when Conservative polling numbers are down means lots of NDP MP's from BC in Ottawa. NDP gain.
16 10 05 Bear and Ape
What alot of people seem to be forgetting when making predictions for this riding and others in the lower mainland, is that Liberal numbers have historically been strong prior and during the election campaign and then drop near the end. The wave of Liberal preidctions we are seeing across suburban Vancouver are probably a little premature. Keeping this in mind and with the fact that Moore is a moderate incumbant, we feel he will probably come out the winner in the end. As for NDP votes going to the Liberals, we think not. NDP have and still appear to be the responsible, respectful party of this minorty government and people who voted for them last time will vote for them again. Oh yeah, and no one will fall for Paul Martin's famous "voting NDP will only help the Conservatives" rhetoric, should he be brash enough to try that again.
27 09 05
With polls showing a massive decline in Conservative support in the suburbs, to the point where they now trail in 3rd behind the Liberals and the NDP this seat is ripe for most likely a Liberal win, possibly a NDP one. Moore pulled 5% above his party last time round. Even if he does it again, it still leaves him far behind what he needs for another term.
26 09 05 swing voter
I hear King's not gonna run, so I say, right away, that the NDp isn't going to win. They may not have even won with King, the way their numbers are now.
Moore is really screwed, though. Recent polls put the Cons at 24% in BC. Yes, this riding is high income, but that doesn't necessarily translate into Conservative vote, because this riding also clearly lacks the base of support from religious fundamentalists and hard right activists, unlike Chilliwack and Abbotsford.
If there is a decent Liberal candidate, and even if there isn't, the Libs may well pick up this riding. With Christy out of the Vancouver Mayor's race, can she resist entering the fray, even if she would be knocking off an old friend? Her supporters seem to think so...
The Libs will win courtesy of the NDP. Libs will sweep the Westwood Plateau region, place second in Port Moody to the Conservatives, and second to the NDP in PoCo with the Conservatives a distant third. James Moore, already disliked in PoCo (despite high conservative polling numbers in the last election), doesn't stand a chance east of the Coquitlam River. Libs in a squeaker, maybe 35%, Con 33%, NDP 25%.
20 07 05 M. Lunn
Seeing the Conservative numbers tank in BC, especially in the Lower Mainland I am not so sure even James Moore is 100% safe. The fact he is a moderate and that this riding includes some pretty affluent areas like the Westwood plateau should help, but the general unpopularity of Stephen Harper in BC will likely hurt him. The NDP certainly won't win this since their votes are concentrated mainly in Port Coquitlam and besides contrary to an earlier post, this riding did not go predominately NDP provincially (Coquitlam-Maillardville is in Paul Forseth's riding). The NDP won Port Coquitlam-Burke Mountain 48% to 43% for BC Liberals while the the BC Liberals won Port Moody-Westwood 53% to 37% for the NDP so this riding had it existed at a provincial level would have gone liberal. However, considering that the BC Liberals are to the right of the federal liberals, but there is no centrist option at the provincial level unlike the federal level and Stephen Harper is definitely a social conservative, while Gordon Campbell probably isn't or certainly hasn't implemented any socially conservative policies, I don't think the provincial results are a very good indicator.
12 06 05 Jay
Okay, James Moore might have voted for SSM. On the other hand, he IS a Conservative, and this riding is traditionally a Conservative riding. In the 2000 election, the Alliance candidate won with about 8000 votes over the Liberal incumbent.
10 06 05
I'm not convinced this will be a Conservative slam dunk.
First off, in the recent provincial election, 2 out of the 3 provincial ridings that make up this federal riding were won by the NDP.
Secondly, I think many folks here, particularly Conservatives are angry at James Moore for yet another famous flip-flop. Moore campaigned against same-sex marriage in 2004, but voted in favour afterwards.
He's being targeted for defeat by Defend Marriage. If his voted dips from 41% to 35% or so he could be in serious trouble. The NDP may pick up alot of Liberal votes and give Moore a run for his money.
06 06 05 Craig
Probably the only Conservative sure bet in Greater Vancouver, the big question will be how many social conservatives stay home and how many grudgingly back James Moore (or vote Liberal, or a fringe party) due to his positions on gay marriage. His libertarian positions seem to fit right in with the right wing elements of this riding, while a split left wing will help seal the victory. The NDP should finish a good second, picking up some votes from the Liberals but not too many. Predicted results: CPC 37%, NDP 29%, LIB 26%, GRN 6%, others 3%.
17 05 05 hatman
This riding includes a Conservative part and a left-wing part. This is why in 2005, it will be a close race. Liberal votes will mostly be siphoned off to the NDP, giving them a good chance in this riding. Unfortunately they need 6,000 votes to overcome which will be too difficult for the dippers. Expect a close race with the tories winning, and the Liberals way behind in 3rd.
15 05 05 Ian
Clearly Moore will win. High profile, well respected, won by big margin last time. Word is the local Liberals are not going to run a serious candidate because they can't find any. The NDP just are not competitive in most of this riding. They'll get 25%, but this is a high-income riding, there is NO WAY they can win. Moore is a lock.
07 05 05
This should be an interesting riding to watch this time around. James Moore's YES vote on gay marriage is going to cause him trouble. He ran in 2004 on a NO SSM platform. He received many social conservative and religious votes because of this. These people feel betrayed. James is being targeted for defeat by many Defend Marriage groups, including running a real conservative candidate against him. With only 40% last time, he will be in trouble if these people leave him. The NDP seems best poised to win here. They will be fresh off a strong provincial campaign and will see the Liberal vote collapse to them. There are also rumours of the Mayor of PoCo running for the NDP against James Moore. If this occurs, or even if Charley King runs again or another NDP candidate, they still stand a good chance of winning.
07 05 05 DW
Moore is strong, has high media profile, is liked in the area, and is respected for his independence and intelligence. He is the only Conservative in BC who is certain to be in a potential Conservative cabinet. The Liberals are not focussing any energy on the riding, and the NDP are a non-factor in 2/3rds of the riding (Westwood Plateau, Belcarra, Anmore, Heritage Mountain and the wealthier sub-divisions of PoCo). In time, Moore is probably going to be a leadership candidate. He has a solid future that only the most rabid anti-Conservative could deny.
07 05 05 Nick Boragina
Moore is the most moderate MP in the conservatives, with the possible exception of Stronach. He's won here as a reformers and as a CAer, he can win again as a tory. Beyond that, simpally look at the votes last time, 12000 for the Liberals and the NDP, and 19000 for the tories. Regardless of if he wins due to splits or not, he wins. That's the nature of FPTP, and it will lead to his re-election.
06 05 05 Wahoo
Yeah, James Moore will need to speak French when he's making deals with the Quebec Separatists. James Moore? Liked? When was this? He only won because of a significant NDP Liberal vote split, based largely on a Liberal surge in the last week.
The Libs will be decimated this time. The question is, who picks up that vote? James Moore? Or... will Charley King run again...?
04 05 05 BLJ
With the centre-right demographics on Heritage Mountain in Port Moody, Westwood Plateau in Coquitlam, and Citadel Heights in Port Coquitlam, as well as the incumbancy factor this riding will remain a CPC hold. Surprisingly, the Liberals placed second in 2004, just ahead of the NDP.
02 05 05 Miles Lunn
Although, not your typical conservative riding, but more of a liberal/Conservative swing riding, though James Moore is not your typical conservative. His positions on social issues such as same-sex marriage are quite liberal compared to other party members so this should help him get re-elected even if people don't like Stephen Harper. I know many people in this riding who only voted Conservative last time since they liked James Moore. Besides he is fully bilingual and very bright so he could potentially be Harper's successor. This is probably one of the few GVRD ridings the Conservatives can safely assume they will win.
02 05 05 Allison
James Moore will win. He won by over 6000 last time, with I think 40-42% of the vote, when the party only got 36% in the whole province. He has high profile in local and national media, Parliament and in the community. He earned real respect from a lot of people in the area for his vote on same-sex marriage. He'll win for sure.

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