Prediction Changed
11:45 AM 03/04/2007

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
New Democratic
Holley, Jason
Conservative
House, Andrew
Green
O'Connor, Robert Karl
Liberal
Simms, Scott

Incumbent:
Scott Simms

2006 Result:
Scott Simms **
19866
Aaron Hynes
15376
Sandra Cooze
2668
Judy Davis
265

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 09 15 Wayne M.
142.162.18.57
Are you suggesting that equal marriage will be an issue for this riding in this election? If so, you are completely out of touch. Are you suggesting that just because the people in this riding are 'rural' Newfoundlanders that they automatically oppose equal marriage for same-sex couples? If so you are completely out of touch. You obviously do not realise that Danny Williams was the first leader in any province in all of Canada to be elected from a 'right' of centre party to come out in support of granting equal marriage rights to same-sex couples. The fact that Mr. Williams approval rating is around 80 percent means that either the vast majority of Newfoundlanders agree with him on this point or that this is NOT an issue at all for most Newfoundlanders. Either way, your view is out to lunch and ridiculous, not to mention offensive to me as a 'rural' Newfoundlander. Mr. House's sexuality is his business, and I have no idea what it is. No matter what it is, this is an obvious hold for the Liberals and Mr. Simms who is hugely popular in this riding (either despite or partially because of his support of marriage equality-take your pick).
08 09 14 Meagan
72.140.225.250
Duncan, have you ever met Andrew House? He's about as hetero-sexual as they come. Maybe YOU wish he was gay - don't hold your breath my friend. I do wonder what most people in the riding think about the fact that Scott Simms voted FOR same-sex marriage. Simms likes to pretend otherwise but he has liberal big-city values. Not exactly a man for rural Newfoundland.
08 09 11 F Duncan
206.248.149.80
While I think it's good to see a nice gay young man like Andrew House running for Conservatives, I will have to say that I think the riding will go Liberal.
I don't think the riding is ready for a homosexual candidate. And I am a bit surprised, perhaps in a good way, that the Conservatives chose him as their candidate.
08 02 09 A.S.
99.233.96.153
With Scott Simms, the seat's returned to safe-Liberal form--but one wonders if provincial-federal Tory relations would now be different had the by-elected Rex Barnes--the nearest thing to a Danny Williams-type Red Tory populist to sit in Ottawa--succeeded in being reelected in 2004 and thence in 2006...
08 01 30 John Johnson
24.138.129.52
The Liberals hold this, Scott Simms could very well be Newfoundland's rep in the federal cabinet if the Liberals form government. If they don't form government look for Simms to leave federal politics to contest the Newfoundland Liberal leadership.
07 10 29 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
74.13.75.161
We wouldn't exactly say that we locked horns with Nick over this riding in 2004. We did have a little tiff with some vague comments made by another poster. But yes, we did think Rex Barnes would hold the seat. Looking at the evidence from back then, we still would make the same prediction. However we were wrong, though in 2006 we thought that the Liberals would hold it...they did. And yes, we do agree with you Nick; the Liberals will hold this riding again, whenever the next election is held.
07 10 01 Nick J Boragina
74.14.23.192
Back in 2004 I went against stalwart poster, bear and ape, and called this one for the Liberals. I was right. I have yet to see indications that anything has changed that could make this one go CPC. Even in 2006 the margin grew. The only difference now is that Harper is hated on the rock. Iím sure bear and ape will agree with me this time when I say this is a Liberal Lock.
07 03 31 td
24.138.130.38
Again another seat that could of/should of went CPC this time had it not been for the budget, but it will go to Liberal Scott Simms.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
After the budget and Danny Williams promise to campaign against the Conservatives, I expect Scott Simms to increase his margin.



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