Prediction Changed
11:46 AM 03/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Avery, Mike
Daughton, Emma
MacAulay, Lawrence
McGuire, Larry
McMullin, Sid

Hon. Lawrence MacAulay

2006 Result:
Lawrence MacAulay **
Don Gillis
Edith Perry
Haida Arsenault-Antolick

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

08 10 08 RP.
Another thing about Cardigan, Larry McGuire (former Liberal and Joe McGuire's brother) is a real wild card. He has a big organization for an independent. He would steal votes from Lawrence, and his support was not polled by CRA. Lately, independents on PEI (provincially) have been competitive with the 3rd parties, esp. McGuire. He drew enough votes away from the Liberal candidate provincially to get the PC elected (he got 560 votes). McGuire could come in third here and hand it to McMullen, that would not surprise me one bit.
08 10 07 RP.
CRA poll out today has Lawrence slightly in the lead. A little close for me.
08 10 05 John
According to the Charlottetown Guardian, the Green candidates for both Cardigan and Charlottetown aren't actively campaigning because they are both going to university in Ontario.
I think that may limit the ability of the Greens to pull support away from both the Liberals and the NDP.
08 09 27 Gone Fishing
Wasn't that Lawrence McCauley sitting by John A McDonald when the fathers of confederation portrait was produced?
Seriously McCauley has been her a long time and as others have note the PEI sweep by the liberals 6 elections back was a shocker at that time.
I'm lookin for other PEI ridings to go Blue but I think McAuley as an MP has more appeal to islanders than a Liberal in any other riding.
What do I really know, never been there and hardly ever met anyone from PEI. That said, I think McAuley is well respected and the last Liberal left standing on the island next month.
08 09 16 RP.
Despite having a dismal candidate here, I'm putting in a prediction for a blue sweep of the Island. Islanders hate the Green Shift, and are prone to get swept away by zeitgeist, witness the Red Tide of the provincial election. What I'm saying is, there's a good chance of an undeserved blue sweep.
08 09 13 SC
By far the safest seat on the Island; the Tories have an utterly wretched candidate (not even the Tory Association wanted him), and Macaulay inexplicably has become uber-popular since he left Cabinet.
08 09 12 Al
Too close to call
Consider that in the 2000 election, the combined PC/CA vote was greater than the Liberal vote. Despite significant wins for the Liberals in '04 and '06, the current national polling is very strong for the Conservatives and if those numbers hold on, this riding could go CPC. The Green Shift won't help the Liberals here either.
08 01 12 A.S.
20 years since PEI went 4-for-4 federal Liberal, and it's easy to forget how much of a surprise it was--and who'd have thought it'd stay that way. Blame the fact that by far the most viable opposition party remained the decimated Progressive Conservatives (who, on a province-by-province basis, got their best percentages in PEI in 1993, 1997, 2000--and still not enough to win seats); plus the fact that the Harper Conservatives are insufficiently Progressive. On the surface, Cardigan--Pat Binns country, remember--is where Tories might stake their strongest hopes; the PCs gave Lawrence MacAulay stiff ultra-marginal challenges in both '97 and '00--but now that PC is no more, and MacAulay's cabinet-target days are long gone, it's receded considerably from opposition radar. About the main thing that could threaten it right now is if there's an Islander temptation to counterpoint the Ghiz Jr. legislature federally...
07 06 06 binriso
Well lets see, provincial Liberals swamped the PC's, PEI has been swept by the Liberals 6 straight times and really none of the ridings were even close, last time it was 53-33 province wide for the Liberals. The Conservatives have almost no chance here. Although maybe they do if they get Pat Binns to run for them.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
Whatever controversy Lawrence MacAulay may have run into at the national level, he is well liked locally and most Tories here are Red Tories so many are philosophically more like the Liberals than current Conservatives. When one considers the ridings are small enough that it is easy to keep in touch with one's local MP, it is pretty tough to knock off an incumbent in PEI as opposed to elsewhere where MPs are less visible.
07 04 02 Nick J Boragina
The Liberals have done well in PEI for a reason, they are moderate. The tories are far more right-wing, but also far more regional and pro-western. There might be some PEI ridings willing to go tory, but this is not one of them.

Submit Information here

Provincial Index
Federal Election - 2007
Election Prediction Project -
© Milton Chan, 1999-2007 - Email Webmaster