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Cardigan
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale
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Update/Mise à jour: 6:41 PM 6/26/2004 
Prediction Changed La prévision a changé 8:44 PM 6/26/2004 |
Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription
Candidates/candidats:
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Liberal Party/Parti libéral: Lawrence MacAulay | ||||||
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N.D.P./N.P.D.: Dave MacKinnon | ||||||
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Conservatives/Conservateurs: Peter McQuaid | ||||||
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Green Party/Parti Vert: Jeremy Stiles | ||||||
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Incumbents/Les députés: | |||||||
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Cardigan (86.9%) Hon. Lawrence MacAulay | ||||||
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Hillsborough (13.1%) Hon. Shawn Murphy | ||||||
2000 Result/Résultats:
| Redistributed | ||
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9,132 | 46.85% |
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8,765 | 44.96% |
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987 | 5.06% |
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596 | 3.06% |
| 14 | 0.07% | |
Cardigan (73/73 polls, 22415/22415 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 8161 | |
| 477 | |
| 442 | |
| 7912 | |
| 0 | ||
Hillsborough (8/90 polls, 3378/29410 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 971 | |
| 119 | |
| 545 | |
| 853 | |
| 14 | ||
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24/06/04 | dean Email: deansherratt@rogers.com | |
| My last submission for the election...I have noticed the Maritime results in polling have tightened up in the last several polls...The Conservatives have an excellent candidate and with minority government looming, I suspect Cardigan voters, who might know their riding is the one likely swing riding in the province, will hedge the bets for the entire Island by voting Conservative. | |||
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24/06/04 | Mike D Email: | |
| PEI has been solid red for several elections, but that will change this time. McQuaid will defeat the scandal-plagued MacAulay by a fair margin. Premier Binns has taken a personal interest in this race, and I'm pretty certain will influence the outcome. | |||
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24/06/04 | Voice of the Common Man Email: [hidden] | |
| "Aren't you forgetting the reason PEI votes Liberal? Federal bucks. Now that MacAulay is damaged goods, he's not going to bring any new projects home" You've hit the reason why the Cons will lose right on the head. Islanders are NOT going to vote for the party that promises to scrap ACOA and cancel the infrastructure program. A Liberal opposition member is the lesser of two evils to that demographic; the worse evil is a Conservative gov't member who would cut the flow of "projects" off altogether. Read last week's National Post. Liberal hold, PEI Liberal sweep. | |||
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24/06/04 | RP. Email: [hidden] | |
| I never thought I'd be changing this to a Liberal prediction. Weird. Peter SERIOUSLY underperformed! He couldn't even draw a crowd to a turf-turning ceremony he co-hosted with the Premier. The MacAulay campaign has been quiet but effective. Dave MacKinnon is receiving a lot of attention, even in the anti-NDP biased local media. Right now, the Liberal-NDP-CPC lawn sign war ratio is 4:2:1 (that is, signs on private property). I wouldn't be surprised if McQuaid came in 3rd now, which I wouldn't have said a week ago. | |||
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20/06/04 | Voice of the Common Man Email: [hidden] | |
| The Conservatives who think they are going to win this riding should be reminded: mari is still illegal in Canada, and will remain so if Harper comes to power. What does any of this has to do with Cardigan? You have to be smoking some pretty wicked spliff to think this riding is voting Conservatives, especially after the way the Harper alliance hounded Macaulay out of offices as cabinet minister. The article in the National Post the other day was right on the money. Why has this riding not been called (Liberal hold) yet? Too close? Bah. | |||
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15/06/04 | C. Hubley Email: [hidden] | |
| Aren't you forgetting the reason PEI votes Liberal? Federal bucks. Now that MacAulay is damaged goods, he's not going to bring any new projects home, so, the enthusiasm for him is less. And with Conservatives leading in the polls, this will be picked up by the Conservatives. Also, don't forget, all four Atlantic Canada Premiers are Progressive Conservatives and all are firmly behind Harper, regardless of the overblown "comments". Red Tories I've met in Atlantic Canada mostly support Harper, and, probably, view the best way to allay any attitude problems he has with PEI in particular, by sending a PEI member to Ottawa in the ruling party, even if it is a minority. And expect the vote turnout to be absurdly high as usual on PEI. | |||
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02/06/04 | JT Email: [hidden] | |
| I'll go out on a limb and predict a CPC win. While the rest of the island will go Liberal red I feel with a possibly of a CPC government Atlantic Canadians may be inclined to hedge their bets. As for Steveo the PC won 3 of the 4 seats in 1984 and this riding was reprsented by none other than the cureent Premier Pat Binns. | |||
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30/05/04 | Stevo Email: | |
| Commenting from Ontario, I can't say I know much about PEI but didn't all four PEI ridings vote Liberal *even* in the 1984 Tory landslide? The latest Ekos poll showed 61% Liberal support in Atlantic Canada as a whole, which would probably translate into 70-75% support on the island. Clearly, Harper would have to out-do Mulroney's 1984 victory to win this seat, and that clearly isn't happening in this election. Easy Liberal hold. | |||
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25/05/04 | Mike White Email: [hidden] | |
| Remember that 400 votes is a landslide win in Cardigan. As usual Cardigan will be a tight race, but it is a race that Lawrence MacAulay will win. Conservatives are banking on the false belief that PC and Reform/Alliance vote will all unite behind Peter McQuaid. If there is a riding where Stephen Harper's region of defeatists rant hits home and will be remembered this is it. After nearly 16 years as MP, MacAulay knows this riding inside and out AND he has delivered the goods to Eastern PEI like no other politician (Pat Binns included). | |||
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19/05/04 | J Poole Email: | |
| I predict a Conservative win here. Lawrence MacAulay's win last time was razor thin. Stephen Harper may outrage many Atlantic Canadians with his "culture of defeat" comments, but the voters here will see a scandal plagued MP with a well entrenched patronage machine. This is maybe the one riding in Atlantic Canada where Harper will actually be an asset. | |||
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16/05/04 | psephologist Email: [hidden] | |
| Mr. Mischief made some good points. True, the combined CA vote and PC vote from the last election just barely exceeds the Liberal vote. Nowhere in Canada is the new Conservative Party polling as well as the combined CA and PC vote. Plus the same polls show that the Liberals are headed for a very good result in the Maritimes compared even to the last election. Unless there is a significant turnaround in the polls in the next few weeks, the combined CA and PC vote from 2000 must have significantly exceeded the Liberal vote for the CPC to even begin to have a chance, especially in this part of the country. The four PEI ridings are often swept by one party and in this election it looks like they will be swept by the Liberals. | |||
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16/05/04 | Voice of the Common Man Email: [hidden] | |
| "political scientists dream about that happening." I don't think it's the political scientists who dreamed about PC+CA=CPC. It was wishful thinking on the part of backroom boys in the Reform/Alliance party. The polisci outfits have always know that 1+1 doesn't equal 2 when it comes to the Alliance takeover and euthanization of the PC party. The eastern end of the island is the Tory-er end of the island in provincial politics. (Actually, historically the west end has been Tory-er federally and provincially). But it is far from small-c conservative. In the Bristol poll earlier this month, the Liberals were polling +5 higher than the actual 2000 vote. The CPC was polling -5.4 behind the combined PC/CA 2000 vote. In fact, the poll result for the "united" party was actually less than the actual 2000 vote. And, in fact, the current CPC poll of 38% in PEI is no higher than the actual PC party vote in 1997, when the Grits tanked, and the PC/NDP parties roared, in Atlantic Canada... and the Liberals swept PEI's four seats. Assume for the sake of argument that ALL the CA vote on the island from 2000 will follow Stephen Harper to the CPC. This means that 15% of the old PC voter pool on the island has NOT followed the CPC. Even if they aren't voting Liberal, even if they throw their vote away to the wind, the loss to the CPC is more than enough to ensure a solid Liberal sweep of the four island seats. Assuming -- and past election studies make this a safe assumption -- that the second choice of disaffected PC voters will most likely be the Liberals, then that 15% of PC voters is gravy on the Liberal pie. And also, if LM does run, there is a certain sympathy factor going on from the way the Tories hounded him out of his Cabinet post over a non-scandal. Cardigan is not uniformly the weakest Liberal seat on the island, either. In 1993 it was Egmont, in 1997 Hillsbourough, and in 2000 Cardigan. Maybe it's Malpeque's turn? My call? Liberal hold, no matter who runs. | |||
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12/05/04 | Mr. Mischief Email: [hidden] | |
| This riding is going Liberal. Contrary to popular opinion, the alleged P.C. / Alliance vote splitting is not chemistry, it's about real human beings, and the votes won't just simply "combine", like chemicals, just because some political scientists dream about that happening. In places like the Merritime provinces, a lot of former Progressives will likely switch to the Liberal Party rather than vote for Stephen Harper's party. The popularity of the Alliance in this riding has already been demonstrated, in 2000: At a time when the P.C. party had it's worst showing in history, 44% of the vote of this riding went to that party and only 3% to the Alliance. If the Alliance was that unpopular with conservatives in Cardigan then, you can bet plenty of Progressives will vote for the Liberal Party or the N.D.P., not the Conservative Party. I'd guess a HIGHER margin of victory for the Liberal this time. | |||
| 07/05/04 | RP. Email: [hidden] | ||
| Yes, Bernard, that was my bad. By the time I learned the difference, I forgot that I had written that. In other news, Lawrence still hasn't officially said he would run. The Liberal party website lists candidates for the other three ridings, but not Cardigan. The website also says that there are no other nomination meetings scheduled. I had a former provincial Liberal candidate in my car last night, he seemed to think that Lawrence's candidature was official. All I can say is, I'm still confused. If I were the editors of this site, I'd probably put this in the Tory column. I wonder what kind of hay Mackinnon can make over the herring blockade this past fall. (during which his brother was arrested). If anyone forgets, Souris fishermen were blockading N.B. herring seiners, and were enjoying tremendous public support, including solidarity from N.B. fishers and native fishers -- there was even a Mohawk representative present. RCMP were walking all through Souris, even the mall, with "tommy guns" (as my father in law described then) in hand. I thought that this might have blown over by now, but after going up there this past weekend, locals tell me that it's far from over, and fishermen are united now (on this issue) like they never were before. I doubt that McQuaid will be able to capitalize much on this, as just yesterday questions in the PEI leg. seemed to suggest that the prov. Tories colluded in some way with the RCMP/feds. | |||
| 28/04/04 | Bernard Email: bernard@shama.ca | ||
| Dave Mckinnon was never a cabinet minister in BC or even an MLA or even on any town council. In fact has not presence in BC where I am. though I think he lives in BC at the moment (as he has done since 1980) Though he did run federally in 1979 in a by-election in NFLD and came second | |||
| 10/04/04 | RP. Email: [hidden] | ||
| I have changed my opinion, to confused. File this under "What the.....?" The NDP candidate for Cardigan is Dave Mackinnon, former national prez of the NDP, and BC cabinet minister. Apparently he graduated from Souris High and is returning to his roots. This might actually be a 3-way race! | |||
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30/03/04 | RP. Email: [hidden] | |
| Peter McQuaid, Pat Binns's chief of staff, has put his name in for the Tory nomination. Patt Binns walks on water on PEI, and it can't hurt that in bailing out Polar Foods, he managed to make sure that the processing plants in this riding stayed open (at the expense of the plants in Tignish, where attempts to form a workers' co-operative are stalled, because one of the conditions of the bailout are that no more processing licenses will be issued). MacAulay barely squeaked by the last two elections, and while no Islanders bought the Holland College loan "scandal," I can hardly imagine this Chretienite surviving. Furthermore, expect the NDP to do twice as well in this riding, no matter who the candidate. The last one they had was a notorious looper who was eventually kicked out the party. | |||
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19/03/04 | SB Email: | |
| The only riding on the island that will go Tory blue this election. MacCauley is deeply unpopular and it will take a total collapse of the Conservative party in Atlantic Canada for him to keep his seat. Fortunately, that won't happen. | |||
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15/03/04 | Nick Boragina Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com | |
| I think the Conservatives will upset here. Quite a bit will depend on the candidate they run, and who the NDP runs. I hear the NDP will be running a strong candidate here, and I also keep hearing roumers that Pat Binns, PEI Preimier, will either run in this riding himself, or do whatever it takes to defeat Mr.McAully, how old nemisis. This prediction assumes the tory vote will not collapse in atlantic canada. | |||
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15/03/04 | S Meades Email: [hidden] | |
| Unfortunately for the Conservatives, the nomination isn't until the 4th of April, which cuts in greatly to valuable campaign time. That said, with the Liberal scandals, and MacAuley's scandals of his own, I expect the Conservatives should be able to snatch this one up so long as Harper isn't leader. If he is, then MacAuley will unfortunately likely keep his seat. | |||
| 27/02/04 | Patrick Webber Email: | ||
| This is the only seat the Tories have a hope of winning on P.E.I., and only if the voters of Cardigan can still bother to remember MacAully's past scandal. | |||
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