Prediction Changed
11:46 AM 03/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Cape Breton-Canso
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Cuzner, Rodger
MacEachern, Dwayne
New Democratic
MacNeill, Mark
Murphy, Allan Richard

Rodger Cuzner

2006 Result:
Rodger Cuzner **
Kenzie MacNeil
Hector Morrison
Rob Hines

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 09 Method Man
Rodger Cuzner and the Liberals are safe with this seat this time, although with what polls are suggesting is a weakened win. I personally have been doing polling in this riding and can report the following with fair accuracy, though giving the numbers would breach my terms of employment.
Cuzner and the Libs have maintained their strength on the east side of the island. Richmond especially is dyed Liberal-red, while Cape Breton County is also highly Liberal, with Conservative opposition in the rural communities and amongst some of the urban business crowd. MacNeill's campaign has also brought some opposition to Cuzner in Glace Bay and the other urban centres, but not enough to alter the race significantly. On the west side of the riding we have a bit of a different story. Guysborough County and Port Hawkesbury are showing strong NDP Support at, with the Cons in second in Guysborough Co. and the Libs in second in and around Port Hawkesbury. Along Route 19 the support seems to be split three ways, give or take a few percentage points - though many undecided voters are leaning towards Mark MacNeill. The Greens are also expected to see a rise in support from all across the riding. All things considered, Cuzner will win by upwards of 7,000 votes with his lost votes mainly going to the New Democrats. This campaign was clearly won by the NDP, though the deficit from 2006 is just far too large to overcome. If the next election is NOT in a Liberal election year, expect the NDP to make a serious run here come that time.
08 10 07 Bob_CB-Canso
I am not sure who Mad Caper has been speaking to, but it is clear that Rodger Cuzner is not losing ground to Mark Macneill. The west side of the island is quite skeptical about Macneill's stance on CB becoming its own province. Furthermore, Rodger Cuzner has been receiving warm welcomes in all of the communities throughout Cape Breton and Guysborough County he has been visiting during this campaign. I also dispute the claims that inroads are being made in Glace Bay by Mark Macneill. Cuzner maintains strong support in this town, and the current environment suggests nothing otherwise.
08 10 05 John
To add to Mad Caper's comments, Jack Layton dropped into Cape Breton Island over the weekend. Suggests they think they could pick up a seat in Cape Breton Island.
08 09 20 Mad Caper
This race is really becoming interesting as the Parties fan out across the riding.Mark MacNeill seems to be making inroads in the west side of the Island and it appears that he is mainly hurting Roger Cuzner.The Conservatives do not seem to be a factor in the core vote areas which could hurt their chance of challanging Mr.Cuzner.The Green Party have been working hard to break ground in this riding but it remains to be seen if the will make any substantial headway.My contacts tell me that the N.D.P. seem to be working their way from the rural part of the riding towards the most populated area where they will most likely concentrate their efforts in the last 3 weeks of the campaign.The most telling sign is the slow start to the Liberal campaign.They do not seem to have the same amount of support in their core areas this time around and this could spell trouble when one considers the connections Mr.MacNeill has in various parts of the riding,Glace Bay in particular.THis is looking more and more like an upset for Mr.MacNeill and te N.D.P.
08 09 08 The Cantley Chopper
Just a note on the anonymous poster's comment: Allan Murphy is the nominated Conservative in this riding. While admittedly ‘Rodney Mac’ would make this race interesting (and closer than it is now), it appears that he'll remain (quietly, compared to Danny Williams) at the helm in Halifax.
As for this race, I'm pretty sure Rodger Cuzner will take it yet again. The Conservatives, being in government and being well organized, will maintain their support from the previous election. The NDP's Mark McNeill, of ‘Cape Breton Province-hood’ fame, may be the wild card: he'll either be dismissed as as a loony, or he'll gain a respectable amount of support from his home base on the island's western side and pull the NDP back into second place. When Liddy May opted go duke it out w/Peter MacKay, the Greens lost any hope of making inroads here; they'll come in fourth with roughly their 2006 result.
Rodger Cuzner will take this riding w/45-50%; Tories or NDP second, capturing 20-25% each; Greens finish fourth.
08 08 31
the same source that told me blair wilson was going to the greens has told me that embattled premier rodney macdonald is going to run here for the conservatives. that being said it will still probably go liberal, but there is a small chance it could go cpc with rodney macdonald
08 08 20 Mad Caper
It has been 6 months since my last post on this riding and as it is my home riding i have many contacts throughout the riding from all 4 political parties. The word on the street is that the nominated candidate for the N.D.P. Mark MacNeill has started to make significant inroads into the traditional Liberal stronghold areas of the riding. Roger Cuzner has inflicted some irreparable damage on his re-election chances in talking to people from all parties in the area from Port Hood, Mabou, Inverness and surrounding areas. Roger showing more concern for the twinning of the Trans Canada Hwy. that is only partly in his Federal riding instead of showing concern for the chance to put in place some much needed local infrastructure in the Port Hood area, not to mention the 10's of millions of Federal, Provincial and Municipal dollars and jobs(both short and long term)that would be injected into the local economy.Take with this the savings in fuel and wear and tear for the Trucking industry along with the benifits to the Enviroment,not to mention the benifits to the Tourism industry on both Islands and this is a no brainer and a signifigant mistake on Mr.Cuzners' part. The Tory Candidate in this riding is said to be doing some damage to the Liberals in The mainland part of the riding although it is hard to determine if this is long term damage or not. The Conservative, Mr.Murphy has a small group of dedicated individuals working to put a good quality team together before the writ is dropped and may be able to also make inroads into the Inverness and Richmond County areas thus hurting the Liberal vote in those areas of the riding. With regards to the areas of the riding within Cape Breton County the Tories will have a more difficult time making inroads in these areas due to the Loch Lomand Watershed debacle that has made the Provincial Tories very unpopular in that general area and could very well cause the Conservative candidate a lot of grief. The suprise so far has been the Green candidate in the race. He seems to be fairly well liked and accepted by all those who meet him in his travels and he seems to be making an inpression in the Judique and Port Hood areas. This factor will also hurt Cuzners' vote in the Inverness County area. The latest reliable information on Cuzner is that for the first time since he has held the seat he is out on the doorstep before the writ drop and continues to attack both the Tory and N.D.P. candidates. These attacks have only began to happen in the past year, where in the past he has totally ignored his political opponents. This tells me that he and his team feel that he is in for a battle for his political life and lends credence to the feeling on the street that the N.D.P. is poised to retake this seat from the Liberals
08 04 03 Stevo
Indeed, touching on A.S.'s comments, Cape Breton, especially outside Sydney, is the kind of place where the Tories *should* be doing well. The down-to-earth voters here almost certainly have far more in common with Conservative-voting people (not that they are a monolith, but on average) in much of the rest of the country than they do with the Liberal latte-drinkers in Toronto and Vancouver. But alas, traditions die hard in the East, and the Tory brand is worth very little here. Even provincially, former Tory Premier John Hamm was once accused of stoking anti-CB feelings in order to win more votes in the mainland. The accusation was probably unfair, but it goes to show the level of mistrust Cape Bretoners have for Conservatives.
08 02 16 A.S.
Between '04 and '06, Cuzner stood still, while CPC and NDP flipped places. And despite its being Cape Breton and memories of '97's Dingwall-defeat shocker, I wouldn't say CB-C is a ‘NDP only real threat’ sort of place, certainly not in the way Sydney-Victoria is--in the end, it's too rural, and it's even got the most Tory-leaning parts of the Sydney conurbation. And of course, it's got the Fiddlin' Premier. But given Harper's reputation around these parts, maybe NDP might as well be the only real threat at this point--if there was a threat at all, that is. And as '97 occurred when Alexa was NDP leader, I guess it means that CB-C would only swing Tory if Peter MacKay were federal leader...
08 02 11 Mad Caper
This riding is going to be a lot closer this time around with slate of Candidates that have been put forward. The Tories have had their man in the field for some time now and he seems to have some credibility although his connection to Peter MacKay may do him more harm than good, but, he will cut into Cuzners' vote on the mainland at the very least. The Green Party has also had their candidate nominated for some time also and although he is a relative unknown in most of the riding he will benefit to some degree from the fact that he has his leader running in the next riding and that extra vote will come at the expense of all three parties, although based on the results of the last election, the Liberals will lose the most followed by the Tories and then the N.D.P. purely on the fact that their vote was not all that great in the Western part of the riding in the last election. The N.D.P.have yet to nominate a candidate, but, have a possible candidate in the person of a Mr. Mark MacNeill from the Mabou area of the riding who is also from the West side of the riding, but, from reading articles that he has written in the Cape Breton Post and other print media that have carried his articles, it is obvious that this gentleman has ties in many areas of the riding, most notably Glace Bay, East Bay, Port Morien and Arichat. These connections will not hurt Mr. MacNeill should he be the person who is nominated for the N.D.P.. When you add to this the fact that the Liberal incumbent Mr. Roger Cuzner has been publicly attacking Mr.MacNeill in the Print Media and over the Radio their is obviously some concern in the Cuzner camp about Mr. MacNeill who is seen by the Liberals as their clear opposition to being re-elected. These pre-emptive strikes by Mr. Cuzner are totally out of character for a man who in the past has totally ignored his political rivals, but, due to the fact that he is no longer a member of the governing party, may be feeling a little bit unsure of exactly where the electorate in this particular riding are standing on his re-electability this time around. Based on these issues i think that this riding may be ripe for an upset. We will have to wait and see what the electorate has to say for the final verdict.
07 10 02 Nick J Boragina
This is the safest Liberal riding in the province, both historically and recently. The only real threat would not come from the Greens, or the Tories, but from the NDP. Seeing as they finished third here last time, it shows how little challenge there really is to the sitting MP. Even if the Liberals somehow lost all but one Nova Scotia seat, they would still hold on here. Liberal Lock.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
This is a very safe Liberal riding. Even if Elizabeth May ran here, Roger Cuzner would still win.
07 03 25 Rob C
With May now running on the mainland (after being rumoured to run in this riding), Cuzner is a lock. Several things point to this including his ability to keep his profile up while in opposition, what he delivered for the riding over the years and the fact that he is a popular former recreation coordinator. He has won big in the reason to think otherwise.
07 03 25 Brian Appel
It's Cape Breton, which is the only place, federally and provincially, that the Liberals are guaranteed to do well in Nova Scotia. The Rodney MacDonald factor may hand a few votes to Harper's candidate, but this riding is going nowhere but Liberal in the next election.

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