Prediction Changed
10:13 PM 20/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Christian Heritage
Campbell, George
New Democratic
Pye, Brad
Savage, Michael John
Shreenan, Paul
Webber, Wanda

Michael Savage

2006 Result:
Michael Savage **
Peter Mancini
Robert A. Campbell
Elizabeth Perry
Charles Spurr

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 12 don
savage will cruise,even if Liberal numbers drop. NDP threw everything at him last time and he held his numbers. Pye is a weak candidate, Cons were not bad but it will be an easy Lib win.
08 10 08 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Seen some poll numbers which put the NDP in a tight race with the Liberals. Had the election not been less than a week, had the Liberals not had the momentum and had the Liberals not incumbent advantage, we'd say this is TCTC. Close Liberal win but an NDP upset is still a real possibility.
08 10 06 chp
i cant beleive how many savage signs are up on property that previously had NDP signs....and how many Cole Harbour lawns that used to be orange,have nothing this time. It certainly seems like Savage is safe and may increase his margin in spite of the lack of support for Dion.
08 10 05 Zoe
I don't know who is the source of the info that Brad Pye is a good guy. From what I've heard, those who have known him think he has not always conducted himself in a polite manner when dealing with fellow citizens and has had a sense of entitlement due to his Dad's days on council and in the legislature.
08 09 24 Eric
Dion is a drag to Libs, but Savage is way too strong. Incredible name recognition and personal popularity. And sign are all over the place,almost all Liberal.
08 09 16 Brian A
I drove through the riding today on the way to work, and back from work. It is a sea of Mike Savage signs from Portland Hills to Westphal to South-end Dartmouth. And most of them on private property, yet. The North-end is, of course, NDP's fortress so Brad Pye has the edge there, but all you need to do is drive down Portland street from Westphal to Alderney Landing to see that Mike Savage has a very comfortable lead. Easy Savage hold.
08 09 16 Ken
I agree with most of the comments. Mike Savage is an excellent candidate and will, barring some unforseen event, almost certainly win the riding. The only (even remote) possibility of a Conservative win would be if the the Liberals and NDP, with the popular Brad Pye, were to split the vote so thoroughly that the Conservatives sneak in with the largest minority.
08 09 15 TheTokenModerate
Patsy: Well it's the eighth day of the campaign now and when I was in there today the office was humming along very nicely. I also saw lots of his signs out. And Jack Layton was even there for his office opening!
08 09 11 Patsy
It is day 5 of the campaign and the usually powerful NDP machine is asleep. Savage has a ton of signs up and his office seems to be humming along on Main St. This would not be close in any event, but the tight race in Halifax will stretch New Democrat resources even further. Mike Savage is a popular incumbent and will be fine. He seems to be working hard and no sign of anyone else.....has anyone even heard of Wanda Williams,the sacrificial Conservative?
08 09 10 Dartmouth Voice
Brad Pye is a great guy with a great dad, but he's a poor candidate for this riding. Does he even live in it? The NDP should have taken the time to find a good candidate with strong community roots and run him. Somebody with great appeal. Dartmouth North MLA, Trevor Zinck, would have been a great choice as the guy lives and breathes Dartmouth issues. Brad Pye is a good person, but Mike is going to wipe the floor with him. Mike beat a candidate hand-picked by Wendy Lill in '04 and a former MP in '06. I think he can take Jerry Pye's son.
08 09 07 zebedee
A.T. Not sure what you mean by ‘In a hurry’. As a matter of fact, the nomination process for the NDP lasted over a six month process (I was the chair of the nomination process, so, unlike AT, I know the truth). We held a nomination meeting and nominated a person who will give Mike Savage a run for his money.
08 08 25 A.T
08 08 25 MadCaper
The liberals will be seriously challenged in this riding with Brad Pye running for the New Democrats. Pye has the community connections to cut into the extremely popular Mike Savages' margin of victory last election, plus the election machinery of the N.D.P. Provincial ridings located within the Federal riding which are strongly New Democrat. THe Tory vote will fall this time out due to the Rodney factor in the Halifax Regional Municipality, that man is just not popular in the greater Halifax area, with most of it going to the N.D.P., but, a chunk to the Liberals as well. The Greens will increase their vote this election and in the grand scheme of things, depending on where they take their vote from, they could be the king makers in this riding. I predict a pick up for the N.D.P., but,by 500 votes or less.
07 10 02 Nick J Boragina
The NDP has the machine and organization here to pose a real challenge, the problem is that the voters have to be willing to go along with it. This riding has enough people who have marked an X beside NDP to win, but the problem is they’ve done that provincially. Why is that so different? The NDP is a mainstream party provincially. They have tended to poll in first place between elections, before fear of the unknown sets in and gives the Tories a narrow margin of victory. People here don’t view it as ‘I’m an ideological social democrat so I may as well vote NDP’ they see it as ‘I am a moderate centrist who does not like the PC’s and wants to vote for the other guys’. Provincially the NDP might be those other guys, but Federally they are not – the Liberals are. While I would not count the NDP out, I would say that they will have significant difficulty winning here. I’ll call this one Liberal, for now.
07 05 17 JD
At the moment, I see this one as too close to call between Pye and Savage.
A lot of us here in Dartmouth did not view Mancini as a ‘well known former MP’ but, instead, as a carpetbagger. I know I had that feeling. Savage had the advantage, as he did in 2004, of not taking on the NDP's best possible candidate. I don't think the seat would ever have switched if Wendy Lill hadn't been forced to resign for health reasons. Savage will not be easy to beat, but Dartmouth is NDP territory as much as any other part of Nova Scotia is, and choosing someone with strong local roots like Brad Pye means the NDP will get the full benefit of its local popularity. It all depends on how strong a candidate the Tories run here and how well the Liberals are doing nationally, as the New Democrats and Pye can hold up their end in Dartmouth.
07 05 16 jpc
It would be a unrealistic surprise to see this riding go to anyone except Mike Savage in the next election. This riding has never been a conservative riding. True, it has been held by the PC's before but today's Conservative Party. There is no way, as an earlier poster said, that this riding will fall into Harper's hands. On the other hand, the NDP has had trouble expanding upon their base in the last couple elections. All three candidates of the major parties saw their support grow in the last election. But of the three parties it was the NDP who saw their support grow the least. It was Savage who was able to grow his support the most, as others have pointed out, despite how his party fared nationally. Keeping those points in mind, it looks like Savage will be returned to the House and Dartmouth-Cole Harbour will continue to benefit from his representation.
07 05 02 A.S.
'Mike was able to increase his vote count over the NDP by more than 4,000.'
Actually, his margin went from 3,962 to 4,585, i.e. it went *to* over 4,000, but the actual count increased by little more than 600 votes. And his overall vote went up 1,602, but because turnout and votes went up in general across Canada, he only went up a quarter point in share, while the NDP remained share-static (and up by 1,149 votes). So basically, 2006 held up 2004's status quo. In fact, once you eliminate the advance + special polls, the NDP vote *increased* a point and the Liberal vote *decreased* by half a point! So yes, Mike Savage did well versus the wouldbe Mancini onslaught; but it wasn't the spectacularly augmented advantage some of you are making it out to be--and as long as the NDP retains its provincial power base, Savage *still* isn't immune to being savaged, not least versus the spawn of said power base...
07 05 01 stephenson
I would astounded that this seat would go anywhere but Liberal under Mike Savage. The media made the conclusion that this was going to be a close race last time, and as it it turns out, Savage increased his vote over a very well know former MP. Now that Mini-Pye is running, this seat will not only go Liberal, Savage will further increases his vote.
07 04 27 Tom
Brad Pye will put up a real fight for this seat. Dartmouth-Cole Harbour is certainly not a Liberal stronghold, and Pye is very popular.
07 04 17 Vincent
Well, it looks like Brad Pye is the nominee for the NDP - like the previous poster said, this should make things interesting given his father's popularity in the North End and his moderate approach. If the Tories end up doing well nationally and nominate a decent candidate, it could bleed votes away from the Liberals enough for a tight race.
07 04 11 jrfd
Watch out for Brad Pye. It's true he's not Jerry, but neither is Mike his father. Brad Pye however has inherited Jerry's innate political abilities. He has deep roots in Dartmouth, particularly the north end where he grew up. If anyone can wake up the sleeping giant that’s the NDP potential in Dartmouth it’s Brad Pye. The NDP hold the entire Dartmouth area provincially so the right candidate should be able to take it, Brad is that candidate. Mancini was a good MP back in the day, but I don’t think people of Dartmouth ever considered him one of them since his move from Cape Breton. Brad Pye does not have this problem. It’s true Brad has been away in Iraq for a couple of years, but I think that this will help him more than hurt him since Dartmouth has a good number of military people who admire someone for putting their own personal safety on the line to help build a democracy in Iraq. Brad is a Stoffer style New Democrat, the kind of New Democrat Nova Scotians identify with.
07 04 06 A. Wright
While the Liberals have the advantage, the result will depend on the Conservative vote in Dartmouth. The NDP vote didn't drop in the last couple elections and stayed around 14,000. Look at the 2004 vote for Savage. It all came from the Conservative. If the Liberals continue to sink across the country due to the disaster named Dion, and Harper continues to do well... that Con vote in Dartmouth may come up taking away from Savage allowing the NDP to win.
07 04 03 Margaret Marsh
Mike Savage will have no problem winning the next election. Last election, even when nationally the Liberals were losing votes, Mike was able to increase his vote count over the NDP by more than 4,000. The people of the Dartmouth-Cole Harbour riding have confidently voted for Mike Savage as their MP in the last two federal election and there is no reason why they shouldn't in the next.
07 04 02 donovan
savage will not lose this seat for a long time. The ndp are strong here provincially, have been for almost a decade. In 2003 they won 5 out of 5 seats and libs were last each time. But in 2004 federal election Savage won by 3900 votes. In 2006, he increased the majority even though the ndp had huge hopes for mancini and poured in outside money and people. Savage transcends politics in Dartmouth, the ndp would be wise to concentrate elsewhere....this seat is a savage hold.
07 04 02 Lloyd Campbell
The last election was not close my naive NDP friend. Savage increased his plurality significantly while the NDP obviously were shown the door. Mike Savage has emerged as a very strong MP, critic for ACOA and then HRSDC, and also touted as a leadership candidate for the N.S. Liberal Party. Not surprising considering who he is and where he's from!
07 03 30 Brian Appel
Mancini being out is the best news for the NDP in this riding I've heard so far. Mancini was swept in on the tide of anti-Liberal voting in 1997 and swept out just as forcefully in 2000. Brad Pye is not Jerry Pye, and doesn't have his dad's connection to Dartmouth or its people. A last name isn't going to win a seat from a popular incumbent who has done nothing to make the riding's people want him out. Mike works hard for Dartmouth and it'll pay off by getting him easily re-elected.
07 03 30 Joe J.
Too close to call. The margin from the last election was not that great, the NDP hold most (all?) of the provincial seats in the area and have a solid organization in Darthmouth.
I would wait a bit before calling this one.
07 03 25 C
Not so fast on the Liberal walk. I hear Mancini is out and the likely NDP nominee is Brad Pye, son of longtime Dartmouth North MLA Jerry, who used to win his seat with ridiculous margins. This federal riding is almost completely held by the NDP provincially, and a strong candidate for them will bring that support out. Though Savage is a well-liked guy and not to be taken lightly. One to watch, especially if the Cons reverse their history of nominating stiffs for this riding. Call this a steal for the New Democrats.
07 03 19 Brian Appel
The NDP is likely to run Mancini again, and it really doesn't matter who the Conservative Party runs. Mike Savage is a very friendly guy, a left-leaning Liberal and he works his butt off for the riding. Easy hold for Savage and the Liberals.

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