Prediction Changed
10:31 AM 13/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

West Nova
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Barron, George
Kerr, Greg
Mills, Ronald
Nesbitt, Cindy M.
Thibault, Robert

Hon. Robert Thibault

2006 Result:
Robert Thibault **
Greg Kerr
Arthur Bull
Matthew Granger
Ken Griffiths

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 13
Will be closely won by Conservative Greg Kerr.
The Liberal vote has dropped in Nova Scotia.
Mr. Thibault created three self-inflicted gaffes this summer.
The armed forces vote (CFB Greenwood and Cornwallis) will increase for the military-friendly Conservatives.
The eastern end of the riding, and Yarmouth in the western end will make the difference.
08 10 09 E. L. Smerl
Strategic voting thanks to and should keep this for Thibault in a squeaker, given Dion's recent trip to the region and the fact that Rodney MacDonald's office (though not the Premier himself) has actually been honest about the tax shift and admitted Nova Scotians will get $470M back in income tax cuts compensating for the $600M they'd have to pay out. Don't tell me MacDonald can't swing $150M or more in extra goodies from Dion, given the billions that will flow in from Alberta and Saskatchewan.
This is one of the most advertised close races in the country so Liberals will have their base out, reminding everyone of Kerr's abysmal performance in provincial government. Greens and NDP will hold their nose and save Thibault because Harper is more abhorrent to Atlantic Canada than anywhere else.
08 10 09 Ancastarian
Thibault is toast. He barley scraped through last time. With CPC numbers higher in Nova Scotia than last time (within the margin of error with the Liberals) and the NDP right behind, Thibault's hand is considerably weakened. Couple that with his spat with Senator LeBretton this summer, where Thibault was painted in a very negative light by the CBC, and this riding is going to the CBC.
08 10 07 Ebenezer
TCTC - A month ago, even three weeks ago, I would have laughed at anyone considering that this seat would be TCTC a week before the federal election, but perhaps the Unsinkable Liberal MP will suffer the Unthinkable and lose his seat. I just heard Ms. Ruddenham participate in a round table discussion on the CBC radio and she shone. If she impresses all the voters as much as she has this one and his wife, she may be ‘going down the road’ to Ottawa one day soon. However, arithmetic still favours the incumbent MP, although when you see that careful breakdown of opinion by district, you remember the politics is people and not merely numbers, and Cape Bretoners are real people. So TCTC, but beginning to hope for an upset here.
08 10 07 CFA
The Liberals continue to do well on the ground here. The Provincial wing is solid from Kingston to down past Digby (Kerr's home area)... Kerr did not attend a debate on the french shore ... bad move ... just lost that area completely. The national polls do NOT do a big sampling (err = 10%) in this area and they will not tell the story when all is done. A Liberal hold ... narrow win but a hold.
08 10 06 hello
Cindy Nesbitt the independant is very popular on Digby Neck she is the pro-quarry candidate. (Anyone remember that?)She will not factor in the race except for the fact she labeled Kerr..... Kerr-plunk! It seemed like in five seconds flat this became the universal nick name for Greg in the riding.
As someone who lives in the riding I can tell you two things.
1. Kerr is universally shot down as an out of control pork barrel spender of the worse kind. I even hear NDP supporters talk of his out of control spending with true disgust. It seems that everyone remembers this guy and for the worse reasons.
2. And Robert also has an unfortunate nick name here in the riidng ‘The Commons Clown’. I really think that people are truely shamed to have that guy representing us. And whats with the Liberals always giving this guy a stage to look like a fool on? You would think if there ever was a reason to muzzle a guy, this act would qualify.
The NDP candidate is not as well known as Bull was and as such that will have an impact.
But none-the-less it still seems that the NDP has some strength here (As it does in most areas of Nova Scotia and that trend is sharply up according to polls) albeit they do not have the organization to do much about it.
I really can't say as to what will happen in the riding but one things for sure and that there has been amazingly little evidence of an election going on in the riding until very recently from any of the parties.
08 10 04 Gone Fishing
Other polls have shown Conservative vote is pretty strong in the east (Ekos, Harris Decima and Gus Reid) and deficits notwithstanding a former finance minister is a pretty high profile candidate not unlike Jim Flaherty and Stockwell Day. If the polls are all showing some Conservative strenth, something has to go their way.
08 09 15 CFA
This is not a transient voter riding and the Liberals will hold on to this one for two reasons. First, the NDP have not put up a strong candidate. Arther Bull was well known and liked by many throughout the region. He is not running this time. NDP votes move to the Liberals. Second, Kerr is still remembered as the former Finance Minister who could not say no to increased spending and placed Nova Scotia deep in debt. Memories are long here. A Liberal hold.
08 09 05 Urban Farmer
This is going to be the hardest one for the Liberals to keep given the close margin last time and Thibault's recent gaffes. However, he has produced before and I'm going to go out on a limb and put this in his column.
08 08 27 R.O.
Some might wonder if Robert Thibaults recent comments about his older opponent is even his biggest problem here. From what I have heard the green shift carbon tax proposal has not been going over that well out east and Nova Scotia premier Rodney Mcdonald recently came out strongly against it and pointed out the plan would be bad for this province. So it puts this mp in an awkward position of having to support a policy that lacks support in his own riding and province. Back to his comments what he had to say about conservative candidate Greg Kerr was just plain stupid especially in a rural riding with a lot of older voters. But as to what affect they have on a future election is a little unclear as the mp as well known and held this riding for a few years.
08 08 18 Mad Caper
This race has taken a definite shift towards the Tories. Little more than a week after his tirade that insulted Seniors from coast to coast the damage is already evident and in my estimation is beyond repair for tha Liberal incumbent Robert Thibault. Greg Kerr will benefit from this to a lesser degree than the New Democrats and the Green Party, but, the net result is that the Liberal vote will take a pounding due to the ignorance of this man. The word i get from contacts that i have in the area is that people that had voted for Thibault who were not staunch Liberals are greatly offended by this slight(intentional or not)and are openly saying that they intend to vote against the liberals in the next election. They say that time heals all wounds. You can bet your last dollar on the fact that the Tories will not let this wound heal. Tory steal and depending how severe the fallout maybe an N.D.P. 2nd place showing and the Liberals third.
08 03 01 R.O.
One of the more interesting races in Nova Scotia, and also one of the closest races. Robert Thibault liberal mp has his work cut out for him as he is facing former pc mla Greg Kerr again. But this is the east coast and these ridings have harder for the new conservative party to win then then were for the pc’s. my guess is this mp would be very safe if he were running in a city like Halifax , what makes it close is the riding.
but its still a very close race and one we won’t be able to call until an actual election and until we know how the race is playing out.
08 02 20 A.S.
This used to be one of the most dependable ridings to never re-elect a sitting member in the country--either as a Grit/Tory teeter-totter, or (as in 1993) as an incumbent's baton-pass--yet Robert Thibault has succeeded in being re-elected twice, presumably less because of his erstwhile cabinet credentials than because of CPC not being PC enough. Yet...despite this seat having a stronger long-term Liberal history, Thibault is still less safe than Scott Brison. Maybe because, with its mix of Acadianism and past Reform strength, it's the most ‘New Brunswickian’ of Nova Scotia's seats, the CPC bug here remains curiously robust--I mean, it'd still take a remarkable pro-Harper NS swing to secure this one, but somehow, I'm still reluctant to hand West Nova to the Liberals unquestioningly...
08 01 14
It was only close because Greg Kerr is a big name. Thibault will have no problems.
07 10 02 Nick J Boragina
Nova Scotia is not as angry at the federal government as Newfoundland is. This is partly due to the actions of their respective premiers. It is important to note that in the 1997 election Nova Scotia want from 11 sitting Liberal MP’s, to no sitting Liberals. Even Alberta elected Liberals in 97. Nova Scotia can be quite cruel to parties that don’t treat it right. While it would be worth debating if the Tories will lose seats, what is known is they wont win any new ones.
07 06 19 binriso
This has got to be an easy win now for the Liberals. CPC came close last time but i cant see them being that close this time and will probably drop a few % which will mostly go straight to the Liberal Party. It points to a solid Liberal win here.
07 06 11 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
With the current aggressive attitude coming from the Prime & Finance Ministers pertaining to the Atlantic Accords and the budget, there is no way the CPC will be making any gains in Atlantic Canada (maybe one in the French-speaking parts of NB if lucky). It's far more likely that MacKay is the sole Tory survivor or a total wash-out of the CPC happens before they pick up in NS. We don't think that this should be changed from TCTC just yet as the election is God-knows-when, however if we're going to call it now we say CPC has no chance.
07 04 05 Brian Appel
Atlantic Canada is usually the last part of Canada to change their opinion on things. Case in point, the 2006 election. The relatively stagnant poll numbers in Atlantic Canada, combined with a lukewarm view of Premier MacDonald, make me prepared to call this seat as a hold - albeit a close one - for Thibault.
07 03 28 M. Lunn
Interesting one to watch. Thibault only won by 500 votes and ironically enough only won in one of the four counties (won in Digby, but lost Annapolis, Kings, and Yarmouth), however with the budget being bad news for Nova Scotia he is probably in better shape right now. The real question is will the budget still be big news by election day. If it is, he should have no trouble being re-elected. If it is not, he could be in trouble.

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