Prediction Changed
12:17 PM 19/09/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Allen, Mike
New Democratic
Finnamore, Alice
Glass, Mark
McGrath, Sally

Mike Allen

2006 Result:
Mike Allen
Andy Savoy **
Alice Finnamore
Robert Bérubé Jr.

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 09 20 democrassy
Mike Allen has been a visible MP and will easily be reelected
He has taken credit for the work done by Andy Savoy before him including deals that were already signed for civic centres and the 4 lane highways so he is perceived as delivering for the riding even though he only cut the ribbons
Reform/Tories captured a combined 63% in 2000, and Savoy went up middle with 34%. Savoy dodged a bullet based on maverick voting record and widespread hatred of Allens lackluster provincial cousin Mssr. Lord. on hospital issues.
Look for Allen to approach the 55 percent range while NDP will sneak into the 10 - 15 percent range and libs drop to their core support of around 30 percent.
08 09 15 nbpolitico
This will be a very, very safe Conservative hold. The riding is strongly conservative (63% combined PC-Alliance vote in 2000) and stayed Liberal only because of the popularity of socially conservative Liberal MP Andy Savoy. Now Savoy is out of the picture and the Liberals have struggled to get a candidate, after a lacklustre nomination meeting in 2007, their candidate stepped down this winter and the party had to appoint its riding president after the writ was dropped. They are poorly organized and demoralized. The Conservatives will get, at a minimum, 60% of the vote here.
08 09 12 binriso
Liberals have changed candidates here, I dont think itll impact the CPC chances too much here since theyll probably win by a fair margin.
08 02 24 A.S.
Well, it took an Andy Savoy to hold the Liberal fort in 2004 and almost 2006 in what had been best ReformAlliance seat in the New Brunswick--but now Mike Allen-the-incumbent is, in effect, the Andy Savoy candidate, the Liberals are no longer in power, CPC has the upper hand, it's (unlike, say, Fredericton) a largely rural seat, etc etc. This is one of those cases where I'd bet on a Tory squeaker becoming a solid enough holder, even in the event that CPC in the Maritimes is reduced to a New Brunswick party...
07 11 28 Daniel
It's quite true that Allen won this seat when he was pretty much an unknown against a well-known incumbent, which in itself might be reason enough to call this for the Conservatives. However, Allen isn't an unknown anymore - he's been as visible of a constituency person as Savoy was, and his name has even been tossed around as a potential candidate for the provincial PC leadership race next year. I doubt he'll jump into that race, mind you (given the many problems facing the provincial PCs currently), but the fact that his name is being seriously considered is a sign of the impression he's made during his short time in office.
Back when I made my first prediction for a Conservative win here, I was working under the assumption that Allen would be a middle-grade MP facing off against a middle-grade Liberal challenger in the upcoming election. Now, the race looks like it will consist of a high-calibre MP facing off against the worst possible candidate that the Liberals could have found. Look for this riding to be added to the brief list of Conservative strongholds in Atlantic Canada over the next couple of elections, especially if Mike Allen sticks around.
07 11 22 binriso
Seems like Mike Allen should be set for next election against a First Nations Chief. There are some strong Liberal areas here but the former Liberal MP was on the rightwing of their party, which helped him alot here. This time the CPC will probably win big, and it might be on par with their two other seats in NB. The shift in this riding might be big enough to inflate the provincial numbers for the CPC up 1-2% or so making it look like they are closer to the Liberals than they are. The Liberals though have a more spread out vote with most ridings being around 40% or higher, which in most ridings 40% or higher would be a win.
Im thinking it could be a big win here for the CPC with their vote going up by 15% or so, something like:
CPC 59
LIB 26
NDP 12
The NDP might do quite well compared to the past if they get a good candidate here.
07 11 20 Political Junkie
I think that this riding will now easily go to the Conservatives. The poster who mentioned the fact that Andy Savoy, a rising star in the Liberal caucus (he was head of the Atlantic caucus in the Martin-minority regime, if I'm not mistaken), was defeated by a Conservative candidate with less name recognition (and from the extreme far end of the riding, the Douglas suburb immediately west of Fredericton) in 2006 is quite right in their analysis. If this happened, then a Conservative win, sans Savoy as the Liberal candidate, is guaranteed.
It should also be noted that whatever misfortunes the Tories experience in Atlantic Canada as a whole are largely exempt from this riding. It is a natural small-c conservative riding (the Reform and Alliance had their best results east of Ontario here in 1997 and 2000) and the sources of animosity towards the Tories in the Atlantic region (basically Harper's killing of the Atlantic Accord) are not an issue in New Brunswick and certainly not in this small-town/farming community riding. When people in this riding think about their economic future, they're far more likely to look at trade across the U.S. border, which forms the western edge of the riding, than they are to look at natural gas in the Atlantic Ocean.
07 11 10 Jeff
This is an easy call: A rising Liberal star and popular MP was defeated by a so-so Conservative candidate here in the last election. This time around, it seems that the Liberals have nominated a terribly controversial candidate to replace Mr. Savoy. Keep in mind that, despite Savoy's popularity, he was still the only Liberal incumbent to be defeated in ALL of Atlantic Canada: that means that it'll take something pretty big to unseat the Conservatives here now.
07 09 20 Stevo
Yes the Liberals pulled off a narrow win here in both 2000 and, surprisingly to most, an upset in 2004, and nearly did the same in 2006. That was then and this is now. A largely small-town and rural constituency in Atlantic Canada's most conservative province, there is almost no chance that this seat will change hands now that the Tories have finally snatched it from the Liberals, and with the Tories remaining (according to recent polls) not far from their winning vote percentage in 2006. Don't expect the Atlantic Accords dispute to make any sort of difference. I don't buy into any notion of Atlantic Canadian unity, and I can't see small-town New Brunswickers changing their votes due to perceived wrongs expressed by the Newfoundland and Nova Scotia governments towards the federal Tories. Indeed, I predict a few Conservative pickups in NB in the next election, offsetting inevitable losses in NF and NS.
07 09 12 Nick J Boragina
If true that the Liberals have nominated the former leader of a first nations band, then I say they are doomed. Native leaders have taken it upon themselves over the past year to draw attention to their causes, and themselves. This, was a poor strategy, as more and more Canadians then ever before are coming down clearly on the anti-native side in the debate, where they used to be neutral at best. Forcing someone to pick a side has backfired for the first nations community, since most people have chosen the other side.
07 06 27 nbpolitico
This riding will go Conservative by over 20%. The former Liberal MP Andy Savoy won in 2000 on a massive vote split and won again in 2004 and came close in 2006 because of his personal popularity and because he ran against the Liberals. He voted against same sex marriage, against the gun registry, and against adding gay bashing as a hate crime. These positions allowed him to be viable in this very socially conservative riding.
The Liberals, even with a good candidate, will would lose by around 10%. However, they have not selected a very strong candidate in Stewart Paul, the former chief of Tobique First Nation, who was removed from office due to corruption issues.
07 06 19
More than likely a Conservative hold but they didnt really win by too much last time in a riding that is clearly small c conservative. I guess it will depend on how the campaign goes.
07 04 25 Political Junkie
I think Mike Allen will be re-elected here, not by a huge margin, but re-elected nonetheless. This is a generally small-c conservative riding. The Reform/Canadian Alliance won their best result east of Ontario in this riding in 1997 and 2000 (in each case nearly 30%). Moreover, Andy Savoy's relatively sizeable victory in 2004 was due more to local anger towards the provincial Tories at the time over the closure of hospitals in the riding, not due to any great love for the Liberals or anxiety towards the Conservatives. From what I've heard, Mike Allen is also a moderate Conservative, so he should continue to have appeal among centrist voters and not scare many New Democrats into voting Liberal. I believe the Liberal nomination is coming up, so this prediction could possibly change, yet as of now I feel confident that Tobique-Mactaquac will remain Conservative on election night.
07 03 29 Daniel
Though the Liberals won in 2004 and made it a close race in 2006, this is traditional small-c conservative territory. In fact, the Canadian Alliance came within a few hundred votes of WINNING this riding in 2000, even though they placed 3rd. Savoy squeaked up the middle between the PCs and Alliance in 2000, and rode a wave of discontent toward the provincial PCs as a result of hospital closures in 2004. Now that the riding has returned to its right-leaning roots, coupled with what's said by people I know in the riding (who say that Mr. Allen has become quite well-liked), I'm convinced it will stay Conservative in the next election.

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