Profil de circonscription
| ||Bloc Québécois|
| ||New Democratic|
Quach, Anne Minh Thu
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| ||08 10 10
|I have to rescind my earlier prediction considering the strong Bloc lead in province-wide polls. Beauharnois-Salaberry will therefore re-elect an incumbent MP for the first time in many years.|
| ||08 09 12
|Dominique Bellemare is the Conservative candidate. He is a longtime activist who participated in the PC/CA merger. Notwithstanding what might be said to the media in such occasions, that sort of candidate usually means that the riding is not a high priority for the party.|
In 2006 the Conservative candidate was a 20 year-old student... and the party managed to get an above-average share of the vote anyway.
Bellemare was the Conservative candidate in 1997 and 2004 and as such he now enjoys some name recognition in the riding.
With province-wide polls giving a tight race between the Bloc and the Conservatives in Quebec, and also considering the fact that the riding has not re-elected an incumbent MP for what seems like forever, I think that the Conservatives will likely pick up this seat.
| ||08 03 10
|It's the only Quebec seat bordering on both Ontario and New York State; and as such, there's a bit of idiosyncratic Tory potential in the air--that is, unless the namesake urban nucleus isn't too much of a Sorel-Tracy-type blue-collar-Bloc damper (though bear in mind that it didn't prevent a Liberal win here in 2000). Otherwise, who knows, maybe BeauSal will *finally* get a chance to re-elect a Bloc member...|
| ||07 04 06
|There are some ridings like the staunchly left wing separatist east end Montreal ridings like Laurier Ste Marie, Rosemont and Pointe de L'isle,which should be called for the Bloc, but Not Beauharnois-Salaberry.|
The Huntingdon portion of the riding went to the ADQ in a landslide with the PQ a distant third, while the Beauharnois section which includes Valleyfield was not an easy win for Serge Deslieres of the PQ. The ADQ finished a strong second. If Deslieres was not so personally established, I believe that the riding (lost to the Liberals from teh get-go because of the Goodyear closure) would have gone ADQ.
If the Tories ran someone strong, with ADQ backing, this riding is one of the more likely ones to change hands.
the landscape has changed greatly. the old separatist/federalist paradigm seems to be breaking down, and the old coalitions that would rally people of all political stripes around one party or another based on the ‘Question nationale’ seems to be rather unfashionable these days.
| ||07 04 01
|This riding has seen 4 Bloc MPS win election here, not bad since the Bloc has only won 4 elections here since their first election in 1993, that said whoever runs here for the Bloc will win.|
|If the Tories can get a strong candidate in here, I think the riding can be taken. While Valleyfield narrowly elected a Pequiste, the Huntingdon section massively elected (42%) an Adequiste, while Liberal Andre Chenail finished second.|