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Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2007

Profil de circonscription

New Democratic
Beaudet, Simon-Pierre
Bédard, Simon
Boucher, Sylvie
Côté, Luc
Bloc Québécois
Mainguy, Éléonore
Picard, Yves

Sylvie Boucher

2006 Résultats:
Sylvie Boucher
Christian Simard **
Yves Picard
Simon-Pierre Beaudet
Mario Laprise
Jean Bédard

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats

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08 10 11 J.F. Breton
Il n'y a pas à dire, la situation n'est pas très rose pour les Conservateurs au Québec. Avec les derniers sondages, notamment le sondage éclair dans Louis-Hébert qui place le candidat conservateur derrière le Bloc, je crois qu'il ne restera que Louis-Saint-Laurent comme comté PCC le 15 octobre au matin. Beauport-Limoilou, comme Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles, devraient repasser au Bloc, avec de très courtes victoires, très serrées. Ils ont un tissu social assez semblable, avec un bon fond nationaliste.
08 10 11 dls
Sorry this won't be REAL original is almost a exact duplicate of my post for Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles. Although I will add that Labeaume (maire of Quebec) outburst can't help Boucher here.
The Conservative party received almost 25% of the vote in Québec last election and most poll have them at between 15-20% now. And the Bloc is trending roughly at the same level as 2006. Most polls have them between 40-45% in Quebec. This suggests that the Conservatives are likely to lose some seats, SEGMA pollsters said based on those number they expect the Conservatives to lose 5-6 seats of the 11 they hold, and logically the ones that they won by the narrowest margins would be in greatest danger.
Second, the recent SEGMA poll in neighbouring Louis-Hébert suggests that the Conservative support in the Capitale Nationale is slipping. There, in a similar riding, in the same area, The Conservatives won by 200 votes last time and now trail in the polls by a 14 point margin. It indicative of sagging Tory support in the area.
Based on the lower Tory numbers both in Québec generally and in the Capitale Nationale, as well as the evidence that Harvey is struggling to retain his seat, I expect that this is one of the five or six seats pollsters have predicted that the Conservatives will lose in Quebec on Tuesday.
08 10 10 Hans
To offer a prediction about this riding, first it is useful to look at the situation in the province at large. Let us remember that in the 2006 elections, provincially the results were : Bloc 42%, Conservative 25%, Liberal 21%, New Democrat 8%, Green 4%, Others 1%. Also provincially, the average of recents polls for the coming election place the parties at about the following levels of support, give or take a couple points : Bloc 40%, Conservative 20%, Liberal 20%, New Democrat 13%, Green 6%. Purists may want to factor in additional considerations, like the fact that the Bloc's electorate is more numerous in demographic groups (younger, modest income) that may vote in a somewhat lesser proportion than the Conservatives' electorate (older, higher income). We can see that the Bloc and the Liberals currently seem to stand almost exactly at the respective levels where they stood in the last election. The significant differences affect the New Democrats, who gained some 5%, and the Conservative, who lost some 5%. This doesn't make much difference for the NDP in terms of seats, because it doesn't reach the treshold necessary for winning seats (with the possible exception of its keeping Outremont). The important element is the drop in the conservative votes. This has to show. This is the element that has an impact on the actual results in the ridings, especially in those ridings where the last election was decided by a very small margin. The Conservatives may hold on to the seats they had won by large margins in 2006, like those in the Beauce-Appalaches region (south of the Quebec region). However, the Bloc is likely to win from them the seats that the Conservatives had won by a very small margin, like in three of the four ridings in the north-shore Quebec region. This brings us to the specific case of the riding of Beauport-Limoilou, which is one of those ridings. Add the fact that the Conservatives have weak incumbents in those three ridings. Thus, it is reasonable to predict a likely Bloc win in the three north-shore Quebec area ridings of Beauport-Limoilou, Louis-Hébert and Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles.
08 10 10 Stéphane Gaudet
La projection en sièges de Segma donne 6 sièges aux conservateurs dans la province. EKOS en donne 5. Dans les deux cas, les conservateurs perdent des sièges au profit du Bloc. Les sièges que le PCC conservera sont ceux où il a obtenu les plus fortes majorités: la rive Sud de Québec, la Beauce, Louis-St-Laurent... Mais certainement pas Beauport-Limoilou où Sylvie Boucher n'a une majorité que de 820 voix. Si les conservateurs tirent de l'arrière dans Louis-Hébert (231 voix de majorité en 2006), ils tirent sûrement de l'arrière ici aussi.
Comme Louis-Hébert et Jonquière-Alma,, ce comté semble en voie de passer du PCC au Bloc.
08 09 29 Jack Frost
The Tories are the strongest in the national capital area and I can't see anyone taking their seats off them.
08 09 20 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
With CPC fortunes rising in Quebec especially in the provincial capital region, what makes anyone think the BQ can recapture this? It may have been a squeeker last time but this time it'll be a comfortable margin.
08 09 15 Oliver May
Second weakest Tory riding in Quebec. Organization didn't matter last time, I don't see why it should matter this time.
Not really a natural Tory riding. Poorest riding/most working class in Quebec City area.
More clearly ‘Bloc vs Tory’ this time.
08 02 18 A.S.
Sylvie Boucher is a fine example of hitting the ground running upon the foundation of an unforeseen win; cf. the NDP's Peter Stoffer in Nova Scotia--but unlike the maverick Stoffer, she's done so by ‘clinging to the inside’, so to speak. Which *could* be a double-edged sword in case Harper's Quebec balloon deflates. As with Stoffer, I'd give her at least another election or two before offering something more definite...
08 01 30 John Johnson
Sylvie Boucher won this riding in 2006 with very limited resources. 2 years later she is the PM's parliamentary secretary and a good MP, she should win here again.
07 09 30 Daniel
With Bloc support spiralling down in flames and Conservative support growing in Quebec, Sylvie Boucher will almost assuredly be re-elected. Boucher won this riding with very few resources at her disposal in 2006; now that the Tories have a ‘real’ Quebec organizational base to bolster their candidates, Boucher should have little difficulty winning here.
07 04 13
Actually, Nick, Louis-Hébert was the weakest Conservative riding in 2006. Ms. Boucher literally ran her campaign with very little funding, I recall someone saying that she didn't even have signs up. Yet, she still won it. Boucher's incumbency factor, and the fact that she was appointed Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister will help her increase her votes. Knowing that the Quebec city area riding is where conservatism fairs quite well, the CPC will really put funding in securing and winning ridings here. CPC hold, easy.
07 04 05 Nick J Boragina
I would not be so quick to declare this Conservative. This is the weakest tory riding in the province, if they lose even one, it is this one.
07 03 26 Smok Wawelski
Sylvie Boucher watched the resuls in '06 come in at another candidate's HQ, since her campaign was not given much of a budget, much less an office. With the consolidation of ADQ/conservative strength in the region she should win again.

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