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|08 10 03
|I don't know where LeDroit got their numbers from but from what I hear on the ground, it's going very strongly NDP. The Bloc is strong but certainly not THAT strong.
|08 09 23
|I spoke with many anglophone citizens in this riding as part of my non-political volunteering, and I heard many complaints about the Tory candidate not debating. I even heard someone compare Harper Conservatives to Duplesis' conservatives.
I also saw the Conservative candidate, Michel Gagné, hang street signs by himself. Clearly a sign of lack of volunteers when, with a university a few streets away, you have the candidate himself get out of his car, alone, to hang his own street signs.
Unless major momentum turns in the Conservative favor, this riding can be called for the Bloc.
|08 09 11
|No star candidates running here. Bishop's U prof William Hogg's signs are by far more numerous here over a Conservative unknown. Still no signs from the Bloc; as oppose to Sherbrooke which has Bloc's signs just about every other street poles in just about every street in the city.
However I still see the Bloc winning this riding. It would have to be a total collapse from Duceppe and the Bloc for them to lose this riding.
If only local candidates mattered, I would say Hogg (Liberal) hands down. In my opinion, the closes thing to a ‘star’ candidate. But since they account for roughtly 5% only, I would say Bloc's to lose. However, momentum will decide which party takes it. NDP is not an issue as they are focusing on Sherbrooke riding, calling Sherbrooke their ‘Outremont #2’.
|08 02 16
|Such is party-voting demographics in Quebec that while David Price fell behind Gary Caldwell, he still won more polls--as long as there are Anglo and federalist enclaves, the Liberal vote will remain efficient on the poll-winning front. Then again, Compton-Stanstead borders onto all that Quebec-Mou CPCness to its north--how, then, might CPC have done here had Price not been in the picture last time? There's a mystery to ponder. Still, demographics means that this might be more latently a ‘Lawrence Cannon’ type of Tory riding than a ‘Maxime Bernier’ type of Tory riding...
|07 11 10
|Dr Bear & Prof Ape
|Brinriso makes an excellent point about vote splitting and how it has (and very possibly will again) allow the BQ to keep seats. But let's look at this riding more closely. First, it is not naturally a separatist riding. It, along with most other Eastern Township ridings, tends to elects a Liberal to the National Assembly. Now, lets look at it's federal voting history over the last ten years. In '97 David Price is elected for the PC party, riding on Charest's popularity, which helped the PC take 4 of the 6 township ridings (not to mention Chicoutimi and very positive showings in a number of other ridings). Once Charest jumps to provincial politics and Joe Clark takes over, Price along with most of the other Quebec PC MPs jump to the Liberals. Popularity for the PC party in Quebec quickly evapourates with Charest's departure, but Price (and the other defectors) all win reelection, as the Liberals are doing well in Quebec. Now we fastforward to 2004, Liberals in decline in Quebec (start of sponsorship scandal), Price loses as voters turn to the BQ in protest. Now Price makes another go at it in 2006. This time federalists voters have a dilema; vote for the former Liberal incumbent, despite the horrid shape the party is in, or choose the CPC with their newfound strength in Quebec. The result, an almost perfect split with the BQ coming up the middle. Now in 2007 the Liberals don't look like they're going to retake government, nor are they going to do well in rural Quebec (and if we're not mistaking, Price is not running again, which removes name recognition). The federalist voters (save for the hard-core Liberals) will vote CPC to block the BQ. Then of course there are those protest BQ voters who will probably come around as well. The question remains, how many BQ voters will come around, and that will depend on how the CPC be looking in Quebec come election time? That is the key question as to whether of not this goes Tory. Until that time, this riding is in play and votesplitting is not likely going to be a factor.
|07 11 06
|Its kind of interesting that EPP only has 24 ridings (10 predicted and 14 of the TCTC) that are possible CPC wins in the next election. And that includes this one, where federalist vote splitting will no doubt occur and send the BQ back to Ottawa. There are a few others that are CPCvsBQ TCTC that im pretty certain will go back BQ, like Paul Crete's seat and Shefford. That leaves 21 possible according to this site. Maybe the supposed CPC breakthrough wont be as big as people think it will. Lets not forget that the 11th best result for the CPC (Roberval, though it was won recently) was still 3200 votes back in 2006. Thats almost a 10% difference. Now although im pretty certain there will be a CPC gain of seats in Quebec, it might not be enough to push them to a majority government. Not to mention, nearly all of the BQ incumbents are running again.
|07 04 07
|Hmm... Ce n'est pas un coin ‘naturellement’ souverainiste. Chaque fois que le Bloc a gagné ce siège, c'était sur division du vote fédéraliste.
Si on devait assister à une certaine baisse du Bloc au Québec, le comté pourrait être prenable. Mais tant que le vote fédéraliste sera divisé entre conservateurs et libéraux, le Bloc peut espérer le conserver, un peu par défaut.