Prediction Changed
6:29 PM 24/03/2007

Election Prediction Project
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Barrie
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Conservative
Brown, Patrick
New Democratic
Clark, Myrna
Libertarian
Fabrizio, Paolo
Green
Jacoby-Hawkins, Erich
Liberal
Jones, Rick
Marxist-Leninist
Nugent, Christine Anne

Incumbent:
Patrick Brown

2006 Result:
Patrick Brown
23999
Aileen Carroll **
22456
Peter Bursztyn
6978
Erich Jacoby-Hawkins
3875

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 10 13 freecanadian
64.141.104.2
The sign war between Tory and Grit seems to be a saw off in Barrie, but the Greens seem to have more than previous elections. However, there are homes with Green, NDP, Libertarian and even Conservative signs where the home owners are telling canvassers that they plan to vote Liberal.
Democratic Space also called it a win for the Conservatives but considered it a tight race.
I expect Rick Jones and the Liberal will get a ballot bump and will squeak this one out
08 10 11 R.O.
66.186.79.111
Has been some uncertainty in the polls but was some last election as well and this riding still went conservative. One thing that I have noticed this election is that conservative support In Ontario is becoming widespread and very classless. I have noticed houses from every income level with signs and not just in rural polls but more in town or urban polls as well. That will help them in a city like barrie which is a mix of middle class and suburban areas. Also Patrick Brown has pointed out some of the things he has done as mp like help attract doctors and government funding for projects in the city.
08 10 09 E. L. Smerl
142.177.12.26
The Green candidate in this riding is opposed to strategic voting and this generally reduces his credibility when his leader is now endorsing it to the press. This riding was not included on her list of ridings in which they had a chance to win but certainly it is included on all strategic voting lists.
08 10 03 BC Guy
205.250.148.126
Not sure how this can get placed firmly in the Conservative camp - while it is true that this was the only seat to ever go reform east on Manitoba, Barrie was a much different place back then - half the size and a lot less commuters. Now it's over 100,000 people, many of whom at the south end commute to Toronto. This is riding that went Conservative by roughly 1500 votes last time (less than 1%) and has had an MP who has done very little for the city. Barrie used to be small town rural, thus conservative, but those days are changing. I'd put this town right in too close to call.
08 09 24 John
142.47.240.83
I feel this is going to another Conservative win in Barrie.
Rick Jones is still an unknowen at this point, which means his campaign better get off it's duff and start a major push! The liberals still have a shot, but the Carbon Tax issue has hurt them a lot, and I think might sink them in Barrie.
Brown is popular in Barrie as some have suggested. His service on City Council has gone a long way to help him, regardless of his lack lustre efforts as an MP. Brown also has a very well organized campaign team, and has been out in full force from the get go.
The Greens and NDP may take a few votes from each candidate, but I really think it will be a non factor.
Eric Jacoby-Hawkins is a very talented young man, with great communications skills, but too many people still have a Green stigma.
Myrna Clark has been almost a no show so far, very little organization, take her web site as prrof. Next to no info about her, other then her jobs, no policy updates, and an overal lack of energy and excitement.
08 09 23 R. J. Jonas
142.177.12.98
Conservative win. NDP is not strong enough to win. Liberals can either be hindered or helped by the Green candidate. In this riding it's Erich Jacoby Hawkins again, definitely a hindrance. Inside the Greens he's been one of the most vocal detractors of pulling back or refusing to vote split to keep Harper Conservatives out. He claims it's possible to lure Conservatives to the Greens, but his own campaign efforts demonstrate no capacity to do this at all. That is, he tells other Greens to do this, instead of going out to do it himself. If he improves his vote any, which was already quite high, that will come straight off the Liberals and hand this to the Conservatives.
Expect a thank-you call from Stephen Harper, Erich. This is your handiwork.
08 09 20 R.O.
209.91.149.79
Was in this riding the other day. Standing by my previously posts as from what I saw Patrick Brown was ahead in signs. Whats also interesting about the signs in barrie is that there almost all on private property as a city by-law must prevent them from being put up on municipal street corners like in other ridings. But from what I saw in the several parts of city I drove thru was that brown was ahead but liberals were running a surprisingly aggressive campaign. On streets where there would be a couple small conservative signs the liberals for whatever reasons have chosen to put up large signs instead. Which might to naked eye give off the impression they had more signs up when in fact they did not. Also noticed the odd ndp and green sign as well. But since the riding is largely still the same city of barrie that Patrick Brown won in 06 election when cpc ahead in polls he is likely to hold this seat.
08 09 11 Pundit Pete
76.69.63.68
This is going to be a tight one. I've chosen Liberal, because the voters of Barrie are really sensitive to lying politicians, and Patrick Brown has been caught on a couple (Go train and Lake Simcoe project - also dubious on his 11th hour announcement about government jobs). The resulting punishment for the lies could kill Brown, but the vote parking or abstinence could hinder Jones. The Dion vs. Harper choice will no doubt hurt Jones as there aren't enough people in the riding who will see how bad the GST cuts have hurt the coffers. Not enough people in Barrie support the arts (see struggling MacLaren), so Harper's cuts to arts programs to fund his war will not grow roots.
All that said, I think that the people of Barrie don't vote people in, they vote them out (see Joe Tascona) and my call is that Tascona's nephew, little Patty Brown, has his neck on the chopping block.
08 09 08 freecanadian
72.141.53.146
First if all, letís get some facts straight.
Raising money for RVH in Barrie is like asking the sun to come up in the East. However, the net LOSS that event held for the citizens of the City of Barrie has yet to be totalled.
Brownís support is not based on personal popularity but do to the fact that the Conservatives are stuck with him after he hijacked the nomination process twice.
Patrick Brown had nothing to do with the GO Train coming back to Barrie. Federal and provincial Liberals government paid for two-thirds of the project and the City of Barrie, without Brown on Council paid for the other third. He didnít lift a finger and doesnít deserve any credit.
As for revenue Canada jobs, Brown himself admitted the jobs were created long ago and that most of the 300 jobs wonít be created, but will be moved. No openings or opportunities for Barrie citizens, just some more commuters.
08 09 08 FaxMan
72.141.51.8
To put that oldtimers hockey game in perspective, Brown raised about $100,000 which was the same amount he spent of self-congratulatory advertising in 2006 alone. A lot of people are miffed at all the mailbox stuffing we have had to endure. Will it be enough to affect the election, I don't know. If Harper makes a mis-step the advertising might be enough of a reason to change the vote, otherwise we better get bigger mailboxes after the election
08 09 07 R.O.
66.186.79.97
Calling Patrick Brown unpopular in Barrie is just not true as he just held a successful hockey day in Barrie fundraiser for the local hospital. An event that attracted former nhl stars and raised a significant amount of money for the hospital expansion. He has also ran in the riding twice previously and found a significant amount of support each run. The liberal candidate will be running for public office here for the first time ever from what I understand. He remains somewhat of an unknown not just in Ottawa but within the riding itself which for a competitive Ontario riding is somewhat surprising. and saying that the mp did not accomplish one thing here is so untrue considering barrie now has the go train back and revenue Canada just announced they are moving an office into barrie that will employee many workers.
08 09 05 freecanadian
72.141.53.146
I see the Brown-ies are out again.
Rick Jones is well known and Brown is not from Barrie. That aside, Brown is increasingly unpopular for his gross waste of taxpayers money on his self promotion and his taking credit for other peoples work. He can not point to one accomplishment for Barrie since he snuck into the Commons in 2006. Even the money for Lake Simcoe was only pledged because Peter Van Loan's riding also touches Lake Simcoe.
Jones wins, but not by a landslide
08 09 05 Jim L
70.49.147.14
Brown, as ineffectual as he is, should have a fairly easy path to re-election. Other posters are over-stating the ?urbaness? of Barrie. Indeed, a study earlier this year cited Barrie as one of the least ethnically diverse cities in Canada. While more urban than in the past, Barrie isn't too far removed from the city that elected the first Reform party MP east of Manitoba.
Brown is disliked by many, myself included, but that was also the case in the previous election. As other's have noted, Tascona was burned by the faith-school funding issue. Barring a similar gaffe from Harper, enough people will hold their noses and send Brown back for another term of photo ops and junk flyer mailing.
08 09 03 Johnny Quest
72.138.253.195
Patrick Brown will win this riding by over 4000 votes if the polls stay the same as current. If polls get closer Brown will still win by 1000. Jones is not known, doesn't live in riding, supported conservatives financial up to 2007 and his is no Aileen Carroll.
08 09 01 freecanadian
64.141.104.2
How can this not be at least in the TCTC category. Patrick Brown is an unpopular MP and an unproductive one.
Liberal Rick Jones has been out campaigning fulltime and with the Greens stealing votes from Joe Tascona in the last provincial election, this will be tight.
I predict a slim Liberal win
08 04 29 R.O.
209.91.149.39
Well what a surprise Stephane Dion in Barrie with Aileen Carroll but wait where is the new liberal candidate is he standing somewhere in the background?
The way I look at it Paul Martin was a better leader than dion and Aileen Carroll a much more well known and high profile candidate than Rick Jones. and they were barely able to hold this seat in 04 and lost it in 06 to Patrick Brown so I think that gives us an idea of the liberals chances here. And itís not like they have much to be upset with mp over. Few examples is a lot of retail stores in Barrie and the conservatives cut the gst to 5% which is a significant cut. Many are concerned about the health of lake simcoe and the federal environment minister was here to announce clean up funding. Many residents commute to the Toronto area and with the return of the go train they have that option instead of driving there cars.
08 03 19 freecanadian
72.141.53.146
As for Brown being the GO Train that is simply not true. Aileen Carroll secured the funding for the GO and the only thing left to do after the Province signed on was to wait for the City of Barrie to get themselves together. Brown was a member of council that couldn't get the money secured and the deal was only completed after he left council. He had nothing to do with it
08 02 18 R.O.
66.186.79.28
Not sure what to get out of provincial results here, but a few things come to mind. First off is since Aillen Carroll was elected that means she isnít going to run federally again and liberals have had to find a new candidate for this riding. Second Joe Tasconaís re-election campaign was ruined by one issue faith based funding , the riding was largely against the idea and he tried to explain that he was too near the end of campaign but it didnít seem to matter by then. I really think that issue was what hurt the pcís here and why he didnít get re-elected. The federal race here will be a lot different as different candidates will be running and much different issues. Some other differences is that Patrick Brown is more experienced at running just in barrie city limits, younger and being in government helps here as well. Also during his time as mp he has helped bring the Go train to Barrie as part of federal/municipal/provincial partnership and that was something that they have been trying to do in Barrie for years since the service was canceled.
07 10 30 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
70.51.130.75
So who do the Liberals have as a candidate? Is it anyone of the caliber of Aileen Carroll? If not, then Brown is safe. True Patrick Brown's stint as MP has been less than stellar (according to some). True that demographic shifts are going to favour the Liberals (in time). However the current poll numbers show little will change in Ontario from '06 and quite frankly it was Aileen that made it competitive. We think this is going to be a rather drab race with Brown winning based on the party platform.
07 10 19 freecanadian
99.239.88.74
The wild card(s) in this race are the NDP and the Greens. We saw provincially how Conservative voters either sat on their hands or cast a vote for the Greens and that was part of the equation that gave us Aileen Carroll as our new MPP. Last time around federally, the NDP support was the reason for Brown's win. This time he will face the same problem, only this time from the Green Party. I believe this riding should be placed into the TCTC category. Conservatives saw Uncle Joe for what he was. With Junior Brown we have learned the rotten apple doesn't fall far from the tree.
07 10 13 Chris
99.238.195.20
I would like nothing more than to see Patrick Brown tossed out of office right after his recently deposed Uncle Joe. The problem is, the Liberals' answer to Brown is a guy who spent the first half of his career re-writing the City of Barrie's Zoning By-Law to encourage urban sprawl, and is now spending the second half of his career helping developers stuff farmland and wetlands with lego-block housing. He also has zero personality and no common touch as anyone who has seen him in action at City Hall would attest to. This riding was there for the taking by the Liberals, and then they promptly threw it away by nominating this guy as their candidate. This riding will never elect an NDP candidate, so it comes down to a vote between a young, inexperienced and ineffective lawyer, and a bland land-developer apologist (aka ĎPlannerí) who's been lining his pockets with City Taxpayer money. Unfortunately, I think voters will choose Brown as the lesser of these two evils.
07 05 27 A.S.
74.99.222.209
While the gravity's yet to settle in fully, Barrie can probably be deemed Simcoe County's most vulnerable(esque) Tory seat now--not because of Patrick Brown's demerits, but on a technicality: with population growth and redistribution, it's now entirely an Ďurban coreí seat, sans any rural/exurban fringe. Though that might be more of a long-term prognosis; it isn't like Barrie's gonna become London or Kitchener tomorrow. Besides, the new-wave suburban SUV supersprawl that comprises much of said urbanity is exactly the solar plexus Harper/Flaherty's budgetary acrobatics are aiming for--after all, to put it cynically, it's as contemporary-Calgarian as Ontario gets...
07 04 18 Steve L.
128.189.232.129
i'm also in favor of putting this one in the too-close pile. Patrick Brown hasn't done anything to impress me or indicate that he might become an impressive MP in subsequent governments. and essentially, he didn't win by too great a vote margin. the Liberals should have a better shot at this riding than, say, Essex.
07 04 13 Kevin
74.115.22.216
I think the Barrie liberal association really needs to rexamine itself because as of right now they don't seem to be a very effective group. Patrick Brown will campaign in this election using any means possible and end up winning, unless he somehow completely angers half of Barrie citizens.
07 04 08 freecanadian
74.115.33.226
I think Mr. Brown might be surprised about his short stay in Ottawa. Ineffective and invisible, his days of finally having a full time job are numbered. As for Rick Jones profession being a liability? Isn't Brown a lawyer. Where do they rate on the popularity scale?
07 03 30 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
74.12.178.56
A good Liberal run may swing this back their way. However it was more likely Aileen who kept this for them in 2004 than the party itself. With CPC fortunes up in non-metropolitan cities in Ontario and with the incumbency, we can't see this falling to the Grits unless something big comes up during the election.
07 03 24 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
I wouldn't call this one yet. This is an urban riding and more and more people are commuting to Toronto now so a lot will depend on the national campaign. I suspect based on last time's results, this will go to whichever party forms government next time around.
07 03 23 bloggerbill
74.108.212.40
Brown should win this one in a landslide. Liberal aren't not running Carroll again, she is going after Patty's Uncle Joe provincially. It will be a no name for the liberals. I hear it's a local lobbyist/developer, everyone love them, name Rick James. Sounds like a super freak to me. Brown by at least 5000 votes. This is Harper country now.



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