Prediction Changed
3:36 PM 29/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Ferreira, Peter
Figueroa, Miguel
Forrest, Wendy
Animal Alliance Environment Voters
Luisi, Simon
Rodrigues, Theresa
Scott, Wayne
Silva, Mario
Thompson, Sarah

Mario Silva

2006 Result:
Mario Silva **
Gord Perks
Theresa Rodrigues
Mark O'Brien
Miguel Figueroa
Wendy Forrest
Sarah Thompson

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 14 Christopher Taylor
The person claiming that Ferreria signs only co-exist with Silva signs is dead wrong. The number of Green-NDP co-existing signs out numbers NDP-Liberal coexisting signs (I've walked around the entire riding south of Dundas, from east to west). This riding will be much closer than people think. The social conservatives who vote liberal will probably have heard by now that Silva is definitely NOT one of them (although I'm not going to pin any homophobia on them, I'm sure it is an issue for social conservatives) so they'll vote elsewhere or stay home. The NDP will surprise people in Toronto and around the country tonight.
08 10 10 Grape Soda
This is a Liberal Stronghold. It has been for years. Signs mean nothing. Why do people put so much stock into signs thety see at the side of the road? The NDP will lose by at least 4000 votes to Silva.
Did you know that the leader of the Communist Party, Figueroa is running in this riding. That's gotta be good for 10 votes.
08 10 03 AD
The NDP winning Davenport is simply ludicrous. Silva won by over 8,000 votes last time. I've volunteered in various campaigns for Liberal candidates in Davenport and I know for a fact that Portuguese and Italians (who make up the vast majority of the population of this riding) will take a sign from any candidate. Maybe they don't want their neighbours to know who they support, or maybe they're too nice to say no to a candidate, but if you notice where there's a Silva sign, there's also a Ferreira one or sometimes a Scott one too. It means absolutely nothing. It's funny how Ferreira only gets signs where Silva gets signs. There are very few houses where you will only find a Ferreira sign. Now, that's an indicator of who will win this race.
08 10 02 David
I have to agree with MA below. While I don't know exact numbers on polls in the riding, I am definitely noticing an increase in NDP support in Toronto in general. Could the NDP be still underestimated in Davenport? Silva came to my door the other night and I told him politely I wasn't voting for him. He seemed quite upset for someone who is used to winning comfortably. On another note, I was by the NDP office at bloor and lansdowne and it seemed to be quite busy. If the NDP continue a surge and the liberals continue to sink nationaly, I wouldn't be suprised to see this go NDP by a squeaker. You heard it hear first.
08 10 02 david
In terms of the sign war, the dips started slow but have come on with a vengeance in my neighborhood (Dovercourt, Dufferin Park). Silva had lots of signs early but is slowly being overshadowed.
08 10 01 MA
With the election two weeks away, an extraordinary thing is happening in Davenport. On my daily commute, I walk through five polling divisions in this riding--all of which Silva won last time by a comfortable margin. Every other house has an NDP sign up. There are more Green signs than Liberal signs. And these are the polling divisions Silva won by 40-50% of the vote last time. Certainly, 4-5 polling divisions aren't representative of the riding (maybe Silva's people just haven't come through here with signs yet--which would be dumb, but would also explain things.) However, if this plays out in the rest of the riding, while signs don't vote, the total absence of Liberal signs in parts of the riding where Silva won his biggest majorities has to mean something. I think it means the NDP are doing better than we assume.
08 09 27 Davenport Watcher
This is hardcore Liberal turf, you have to go back to the Diefenbaker years to find a Con win. Being considered a ‘safe’ seat, it doesn't get much attention from any party. An incumbent like Silva would have to face a perfect storm involving three factors in order to be defeated. 1) The Lib campaign and leadership would have to be a disaster. 2) The NDP would need a good solid electable candidate and a strong national and regional campaign bounce. 3) And this is the kind of riding in which the NDP desperately needs more of a three-way race, with some of the usual Lib vote leaking to the Cons.
The first factor is happening. On the second point, Ferriera is the most electable candidate the NDP has run here in a long time (though I personally like Gordon Perks). However, the NDP numbers are good but not great (so far). Perhaps the biggest factor is point three. The kind of moderate small ‘c’ conservative voters (both economic and social conservatives) that elsewhere flock to the Cons are solid Liberal supporters here in Davenport and across Toronto. The Cons will do a little better than usual here, but not enough to seriously dent the Libs.
08 09 25 AD
This should be an easy Liberal victory. Mario Silva is well-known by the vast majority of residents of this Toronto riding. He has served here as a City Councillor and in four years has proven he is an effective MP who has quickly risen among the ranks of Liberal Party. The NDP candidate on the other hand is an immigration consultant who has run for the provincial NDP, the Liberal nomination in Mississauga and apparently he was also a member of the PCs at some point before their absorption by the Alliance, showing a major lack of conviction on his part. He also doesn't even live in this riding, making him a tough sale against neighbourhood boy Silva.
08 09 23 Rebecca Hammond
Speaking from experience as the riding in which I live, and from the large margins-of-victory in past results. Silva is generally a well-like and reasonably effective MP. While Ferreira *is* Portuguese and the NDP is running stronger than ever in Ontario, it will not be enough to knock Siva off... yet, perhaps in future campaigns but not yet. Also of note, while there are dozens of Green signs around the riding, some on businesses as well, I have yet to see a CPC sign and have even started to wonder if they did, in fact, register a candidate. Prediction: Liberal 41%; NDP 37%; Green 14%; CPC 8%.
08 09 21 mikeb
Ferreira did very well in the riding against Tony Ruprecht in the provincial election. Mario Silva is a much better candidate and will be a lot more difficult to knock off. He's also a much more effective MP than Ruprecht is an MPP. Even with the bad publicity of Tony's trips to Cuba, Ferreira still could not quite catch him.
The Liberals certainly appear to be organized in the north part of the riding. Tons of Silva signs lined Dufferin and Caledonia within days of the election call. I've already received phone calls from them. Ferreira signs have just started popping up. The Greens may pick up a few votes and may pass the 3rd time running and 3 times losing Conservative candidate, but neither are anywhere near the top two candidates.
Should be interesting, but IMHO Silva is going back to Ottawa.
08 09 19 Pierre from Québec
The difference between the Liberals and the NDP is only 7491 votes. Last election, the NDP did not field a portuguese-origin candidate and they got more than 30% of the vote in this overwhelming portuguese ridding. An experienced politician like Peter Ferreira will bring some trouble to Mr. Silva. Jack Layton campaigned here this week and Peter Ferreira came close to win this ridding in the provincial election.
08 09 18 MH
Davenport is as safely Liberal as Ontario seats come. The constituency with that name has gone Liberal all the way back to 1962. The NDP are close enough to pose a distant threat. The Conservatives are nowhere in sight, having last won this in 1958 and, except for 1972, having not been close since. But you have to admire Mel Petraglia's gift for fantasy.
08 09 18 Marshall Howard Bader
I would call this one an NDP pick up. In the last provincial election Peter Fereira came very close to knocking off impossible to beat Tony Rupreict (who most pundits believe would survive an atomic explosion). That was an election were the NDP was going no-where and the Libs were on a roll. This time it is the NDP that is on a roll while the Libs are headed for a John Turner like crash. Fereira is the former chair of the Dufferin Peel Catholic School Board and well known in this downtown riding. Right now the sign war is even but given that Silva was the incumbant look for an NDP victory in this all Portugal match-up.
08 09 08 M A
No offense to mel petraglia, but the Conservatives routinely lose their deposit in this riding. It's not going to be an upset, it's going to be a comfortable Liberal victory, and the Tories will finish behind the Greens.
The NDP don't seem to be trying too hard: they don't even have a local website up yet. The Liberals were down in 2004 because of bitterness over how Charles Caccia was turfed, but that rift is healing, and expect Mario to be returned with a larger majority.
08 09 08 King of Kensington
A Conservative victory in Davenport??? It is one of the last ridings that will go Tory. They'll be lucky to get their deposit back!
If the Liberals lose Davenport, it will be to the NDP. The Liberals have held Davenport forever and if losing it will be as humiliating for them as losing Outremont. Not completely impossible with Dion at the helm, but I think the Liberal brand needs to sink further in Toronto for that to happen.
08 09 08 Black Jack
Mario Silva got more votes than any other MP in the history of Davenport, over 20,000. and that was with a low voter turnout, If Mario's team doesn't get too over confident and just keeps working hard, Mario might see 21 thousand votes, BLACK JACK. I think Olivia Chow will exhaust most of the NDP resources on her campaign, and Peter Ferreira will be stuck running around like a chicken with no head trying to gain ground on Mario Silva, Mario Silva is on pace to being the first ever Portuguese Federal Minister. Mario is on fire, he is too hot, we can expect great things from Mario Silva, at 41 years old with 5 years Federal experience and 9 as City Councilor, Mario Silva has the golden touch, and is a great role model for the Portuguese community. I predict a Black Jack for Mario Silva 21 thousand votes.
08 09 04 mel petraglia
This could be the seat that Harper needs to get his Majority, with two high profile Portuguese Candidates in the NDP and the Liberals, Peter got over 10 thousand votes in the provincial election, if he took those votes from Mario that will bring Mario down to 10 thousand votes too, which Leaves us with the Conservatives, A strong Conservative candidate might just pull off a victory here, after all they did reduce the GST by 2 pennies and Kept their promise, if enough people in the area are convinced that the GST will be reduced another penny each year I will put my money on a Conservative Upset in Davenport.
08 08 27 Phil D.
Peter Ferreira will be the NDP candidate, according to the NDP web site. This riding has a lot of immigrants and people on low incomes, especially north of the rail line, and is more Liberal than the southern part which Ferreira won provincially. If the Green Shift and Liberal inaction on immigration are successfully used against the Liberals, Silva could be shown the door. Ferreira doesn't need to win in the northern part, only be close. The argument that provincial and federal elections are two different beasts holds less true nowadays, especially as far as Liberals and Tories are concerned. That said, he can get 40%+ and still lose since the Tory vote is so low and shows little prospect of an even modest increase. The Greens are out of place as well.
07 11 14 seasaw
Mr Silva can go on vacation during the campaign and still win. With all due respect to all of the other candidates, the Liberals can run a fence post in the riding and CPC and NDP can run Jesus Christ and Mother Theresa and the fencepost will still win, and Mr Silva is certainly no fencepost, he's a very good MP. Remember, Charles Caccia held this seat for the Libs for 36 years and Walter Gordon for 30 years before that. Now it is Mario Silva's turn, and he'll keep winning for as long as he keeps his name on the ballot.
07 10 25 ciccio picolo
If Peter Fereira runs in Davenport Federally, not only will he lose federally as well as Provincially, He will be a two time loser. nobody can beet Mario Silva, even if the Liberals lose everywhere else, Davenport will always be a Liberal seat...
07 03 01 John Mc Donald
Peter Ferreira had a much better than expected provincial election result. Davenport is a left-wing riding and with the debacle of the federal Liberals, the NDP will pick up this riding. Don't forget the next federal poll is the first in many years the Liberals are not the incumbent party, and they have no prospects to sweep to power in the following years unless in a Liberal-NDP coalition government. But it is still too close to call.
07 05 04 Seamus
Silva's seat UNLESS north-end dynamo Alejandra Bravo runs. Lost to Cesar Palacio in the north-end Ward 17 by only 281 votes. The north is the Liberal's fortress. However, Bravo proved that she can attract Liberal vote west of Caledonia and north of Dufferin. The south, represented at City Hall by TTC Chair and former Federal NDP president Adam Giambrone, is yuppifying, as the older Portuguese and Italian families leave and younger Anglo families replace them. This will only help a candidate like Bravo. Mario Silva better hope she sits this one out.
07 04 16 King of Kensington
Despite a big surge in NDP support, this is still a very safe Liberal seat. The NDP does well in the increasingly ‘creative class’, gentrifying Ward 18 part represented by Adam Giambrone on Council. However Ward 17 represented by Cesar Palacio includes overwhelmingly Liberal polls in the never-to-be-trendy far NW of the old city of Toronto and the former township/borough of York, which will keep this a safe Liberal seat for a long time to come.
Paul Ferreira's surprise byelection victory in York South may make this seat competitive provincially, however.
07 04 15 A.S.
Thanks to Jack Layton's astute feasting off Charles Caccia's electoral corpse, Davenport's quickly gone from being one of the 2-3-4 safest Liberal seats in Toronto to perhaps one of the 2-3-4 most vulnerable of those remaining. It still is, even if the NDP line slackened oh-so-slightly w/Gord Perks in '06 (yes, all Dufferin Grove greeny chattering-class aside, ethnicity still matters). But that's only if the Dippers have strong default wind in their sails--my feeling is, they may be too preoccupied with saving Peggy Nash's skin this time...
07 04 10 M. Lunn
This is a left leaning riding and would naturally seem like a target for the NDP, but the NDP is not quite as strong as in Toronto-Danforth or Trinity-Spadina, while with the Conservatives being practically non-existent they cannot come up the middle either due to the Conservatives taking away some Blue Liberal votes, therefore even if the NDP gets as high as 40% (which is highly unlikely) they would still lose this one.
07 03 28 Daniel
Mario Silva actually increased his vote percentage and his total vote count in 2006 over 2004. Meanwhile, Gord Perks, a well known NDP candidate who came in second is not running again having been elected a city councillor. Mario will keep this seat for sure.
07 03 24 RF
Easy Liberal win. The New Democrats couldn't overcome the incumbent in the last election, and they certainly won't now. It's not even worth mentioning the CPC in this poor, immigrant riding.

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