Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:10 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
5:12 PM 6/11/2004

Constituency Profile
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Johan Boyden
Parti Marijuana Party:
Elmer Gale
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Mark O'Brien
Rui Pires
Canadian Action canadienne:
John Riddell
Theresa Rodrigues
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Mario Silva
Sarah Thompson

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Davenport (90.7%)
Hon. Charles Caccia
Trinity-Spadina (9.2%)
Tony Ianno
York South-Weston (0.1%)
Alan Tonks

2000 Result/Résultats:
18,282 64.72%
4,668 16.52%
2,120 7.50%
1,605 5.68%
1,575 5.58%

(138/140 polls, 50173/50177 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(17/202 polls, 5094/72858 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

York South-Weston
(5/165 polls, 49/62127 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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23/06/04 B.O.
Email: [hidden]
According to V, there is going to be a split of "liberal" candidates between Silva and Caccia. How is this possible when Caccia is not running as an Independent? Caccia backed out at the last minute and will not be on the ballot. Therefore there is no split between "liberal" candidates. I've also checked the electoral records of the Davenport riding, and the NDP has come in second throughout every election for the past 25 years. This was true even when there was no split between the Reform-Alliance and the PCs (actually there was also no Reform Candiate in 1997, either). While the Davenport results from 2000 has the combined PC-Alliance total exceed the NDP total, the re-distributed Davenport results for the new riding do not have the combined PC-Alliance total exceeding the NDP total. This is possibly beccause the new riding picked up an NDP-friendly section of the old Trinity-Spadina riding, which would also have very little support for the right-wing. With this new section added, the riding becomes more left-wing than it was before, and even less likely to go Conservative. So considering that the Conservative parties have come in a distant third for so long in previous elections, and also considering the fact that V's speculation based on Caccia being on the ballot is impossible because Caccia is not on the ballot, this remains a race between the Liberals and the NDP, with the Conservatives not much of a factor.
22/06/04 Full Name
Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
The crew of the S.S. Jack Layton have run one of their mates Rui Pires to win Davenport and will do so by default as the Liberals are split with their Team Martin approved candidate Mario Silva who takes over from the loved Chretienite oldie Charles Caccia, who was one of Pierre Elliot Trudeau's favourite Ontario Federal Grit and recently thrown out from his position as MP for the neighbourhood by Silva's thugs. The luck is that Caccia, like most left-leaning Liberals in this election, won't be running Independent against mean-man Mario despite being asked to run for the Progressive Canadian or Canadian Action or Green Party locally there and it seems many Sheila Copps progressives are looking for a new Third Way in time for the next election. This is also the historic electoral district in which the Reform Party of Ontario ran its one and only candidate in the 1999 provincial election in Ken Kalopsis, what a horrible place to push that agenda he had, and still collected votes but, while we are talking provincially, memories of Tony Silipo make it was smart for Jack to pull the plug on Jordan Berger and Paul Martin to do the same for Josh Matlow as this generation's under 30 party hack crowd seem to have big mouths to insert big feet like hometown NDP president Adam Giambrone, too bad the Conservative Party of Canada hasn't learnt this important lesson.
18/06/04 Matthew
Email: [hidden]
A few people have made reference to the fact that this is a highly populated Portuguese area however all the candidates are Portuguese . . . The nice thing about Pires is that he speaks several languages and has done anti-racist work. Although the Portuguese community is strong here it is still very culturally mixed . . . hence the reason I live here. I think Pires can appeal to all these communities. It would also be nice to have an openly gay candidate such as himself in parlaiment to represent the gay community. Someone said that the Portuguese community is too conservative to vote for a gay candidate . . . I don't think that is true at all. I think that is a stereotype and I think the gay and lesbian Portuguese community has made great inroads with the larger Portuguese-Canadian population in Toronto. There are many Pires signs throughout this riding.
17/06/04 Cory Martin
Email: thatcanadianguy23@yahoo.ca
The NDP will not win this riding. There is still a strong Liberal prescnce in this riding. Yes there are still some angry Liberals, but why would they vote for a party who will never form a government?
17/06/04 V
Email: [hidden]
Davenport has always been a safe Liberal seat. The people here in my experience(25 years)are not at all politically involved or aware. They tend to vote ethnically instead of politically. That will make this race interesting as all three major party candidates are of Portuguese decent, as are 35% of the ridings inhabitans. While it is a long shot, this makes the following a real possibility. The Conservative candidate, Theresa Rodriguez, has a chance to slip through the cracks as Liberals try to decide whether to support long time yet completely useless MP Charles Caccia, or vote for the official Liberal candidate, equally ineffective Mario Silva. This split of "liberal" candidates could also confuse the many riding residents who don't speak english well, or at all. Such a split of the Liberal vote could let Rodriquez pick up a plurality of the votes, since in the past PC/Alliance votes have outnumbered those of the NDP, leaving Pires as the 3rd/4th place finisher. Those in the riding who are politically aware are no doubt aware of the Liberal slide and may be on the province/nation wide ABL (anything but liberal) bus. The only down side for the conservatives is that once again they have done a poor job of getting information and lawn signs up. My relatives have requested one three times, but are still without one.
17/06/04 Kevin S
Email: [hidden]
The all candidates meeting was last night (June 16), so I thought I would post my impressions. There were six candidates, from the Liberals, Conservatives, NDP, Green, Marijuana and communist. Each gave a brief intro, and then it was turned over directly to questions from the floor. With six answers for each question, the process got to be a bit tedious.
Liberal Silva looked slick in a suit, but his answers were all rhetoric with little substance. NDP'er Peres has extensive community service record and spoke knowledgably about constituency concerns. Green Party rep Mark O'Brien delivered a complete but uninspired presentation of the party's platform. Tory Rodrigues was hopeless, barely able to string two sentences together, and often looking disdainful. The comrade from the Communist party (sorry, didn't get names of other two) delivered earnest measured rebukes. The Marijuana representative did well considering their limited platform, and his community involvement is admirable. He also seemed the most relaxed (sorry, I couldn't resist !)
The questions were good, touching on all the issues. Interesting was how the national issues all had local relevance. In that regard I would say Peres did the best job of conveying his understanding of them. Silva just came across as someone who wants to be in politics for the game of it, rather than to serve the people. Silva also took a lot of heat for the Liberals poor record. I am new to the riding, but wonder how Caccia got in all those years if the Liberals didn't provide for the community. Interestingly the question which got the biggest rise from the audience was from a man in a same-sex relationship asking the whether the candidates supported same-sex marriages. All did (except Rodrigues) and were roundly cheered for doing so.
Total turnout looked to be just under 100 people or so.
Hard to make a prediction based on such a limited sample, but based on the debate I would be happy to be represented by Peres.
13/06/04 SEP
Email: [hidden]
I wouldn't call this riding too quickly. The polls all show the NDP doing well in Toronto and Rui Pires could easily be swept in on Jack and Olivia's coattails.
13/06/04 Mark R.
Email: [hidden]
This seat was Liberal by and large because of Charles Caccia. With the treatment Mr. Caccia received by the Martin team, voters will do the same here as they did in Windsor West some 2 years ago in the by-election > and that is to elect an NDP MP to go to Ottawa. Voters are smart & the dumping of Mr. Caccia will bolster the NDP campaign. Add to this the machinery of Adam Giambrone, the Layton coat-tails, and resurgence in NDP popular vote equals an NDP victory. It may well be a close race.
07/06/04 416 Insider
Email: [hidden]
Silva has to count his blessings because Caccia must have been talked out of not running. This makes this race less interesting, but still close.
Silva is taking on the machine of Adam Giambrone. Giambrone of course, is the wunderkid who is President of the NDP and Toronto City Councillor. These two have fought each other in the last few municipal elections when Silva beat Giambrone in 2000 by 2500 votes. Giambrone got his revenge last year when he beat out Silva's candidate in a close race.
Still, Silva has shown that he knows how to get votes into the box when he is running. If Caccia was running, I would pick Pires. But he's not, so I am taking Silva.
07/06/04 W. Lambert
Email: [hidden]
The way Caccia (who held this riding since 1968) has been treated is shameful and may affect the way a number of residents vote this time around. In the race; he would have taken away some Liberal support as a safe place to show disatisfaction. If he is now out (I wonder what caused that decision) where will those angry Liberal vote go? A few may very reluctantly decide to stay with the new Liberal candidate, but I see that as unlikely. They will not go conservative because thats too large a shift. This leaves only Rui Pires of the NDP to benefit from this latest development. It looks as though this could be close, but I see this as an advantage for Pires at the moment.
06/06/04 Cory Martin
Email: thatcanadianguy23@yahoo.ca
It looks like to me that Mario is getting a lot of support in this riding. The majority of the homes we've been canvassing all said they supported Silva and the Liberals. So this riding should be a lock for Mario. Theresa Rodrigues of the Conservatives from what I have seen has very few (AND I MEAN FEW) signs out. Rui Pires thinks he will win but he can keep thinking.
05/06/04 Grant
Email: grantramcgill@yahoo.ca
Now that Caccia has offically bowed out of the race, I'd have to place this one in the Liberal column.
With Caccia, you would have had a safe protest vote for those too mad at the Liberals to support them but not excited about voting NDP. I'm sure the Conservatives are picking up some support regardless, but this riding hasn't gone Tory since the Dief rose to power.
With him gone, I'm can't be sure that I agree totally with Peter M.'s assessment that a riding with a 55% immigrant population will go voting, en masse, for the NDP. Not that this is a scientific sample by any stretch, but I work with and know of alot of 1st generation immigrants, and a large number of them still vote Liberal, in deference to their past immigration policies, sort of a "dance with the one that brought ya" idea. And this despite being ticked off at Chretien, adscam, HRDC etc.
I still think Silva's going to take this one, but with no more than 45% of the vote.
04/06/04 Caithness
Email: [hidden]
I'm starting to think that this seat has a serious chance of going NDP. With Charles Caccia out of the race, all the anti-Liberal vote is probably going to coalesce around Pires and there is no way that Silva is going to be able to hang onto all of the old Caccia constituencies.
03/06/04 Cory Martin
Email: thatcanadianguy23@yahoo.ca
Just released. Charles Caccia is not running in this election as an independent.
02/06/04 MSH
Email: [hidden]
Even with Charles Caccia running as an Independent, it will take a seismic shift to move this out of the Liberal win column. Independents rarely do well, and the Liberals had a huge margin of victory in 2000. Only if the Conservatives take a huge bite out of Liberal support will the NDP be able to take this. The Tories themselves don't have a realistic chance of winning. It's unclear where the Greens will win votes, but the NDP is as likely to suffer as the Libs or Tories are.
27/05/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
I know the riding and its as likely to go NDP as to go Liberal, depending on the political winds. Its a low-turnout riding so a very small number usually decide it. My sense is the new left-of-centre boomer residents of this riding who will decide it. It is a free kick at the Liberals without having to vote Tory. Caccia cold get a few of those votes, but the sense it that he's had his day.
Enough will come back to the NDP, where they have often lived provincially. The Cons are nowhere in the riding, never have been.If 20 per cent of the Liberal vote goes to Caccia, a few votes drift Conservative, and Jack Layton convinces a bunch of the ridings strategic voters to go NDP, anything can happen (and will!).
26/05/04 Peter M.
Email: canadamp@hotmail.com
With Caccia running, Silva's chances are actually better. Caccia gives those Liberals who were disgruntled about Silva's rise a safe protest vote: they don't have to vote for Silva, but also don't have to vote NDP to register their unhappiness.
Had Caccia not run, more of his 'fans' would have voted NDP - but now they don't have to.
26/05/04 The Lobbyist
Email: [hidden]
I confess not to know much about Caccia and Silva... but I will say this:
If it becomes obvious during the course of this election that the Liberals are safely in with another majority government, expect Caccia to win. It's always easier to make a statement of independence when the holistic outcome is a forgone conclusion, or can't be altered. This is the same political reality that makes it so hard for governing parties to win by-elections. (A la Windsor West)
If, however, voters sense that they have a chance to influence the national picture, you necessarily expect fewer of them to be thinking about casting their vote for a man who will be a political non-entity in the House of Commons. I see a debate raging about the relative merits of the Liberals the NDP in Toronto... and Caccia losing just enough steam to miss out.
24/05/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Caccia has been in office seemingly since the late-Jurassic era, however people are not tired of him. He is an institution, much like Herb Grey was in Windsor West. The difference between Caccia and Grey is that Windsor West is by it's nature, an NDP riding. Hence once Herb Grey was gone, the riding went NDP and it's most likely going NDP again. Davenport is more of a liberal riding. Many people would be comfortable voting for another liberal candidate, yet Caccia still has his followings. Many people precieve that Caccia was turfed a la Sheila Copps, and you can bet that a good portion of the voters will want to punish the liberals. I'll point out those seven by-elections some time back, where the political wiseguys were saying 6 were to go liberal and 1 to go Canadian Alliance. The end result: 4 went Liberal, 1 Canadian Alliance, 1 PC and 1 NDP. Why? Two popular Liberal incumbants were mistreated (Herb Grey and George Baker) and the voters made them pay. This is going to be a real factor in Davenport as well.
19/05/04 Ottawan
Email: [hidden]
I crashed on a generous couch in this area several times after the Ontario election, while the municipal signs were out. It's a lovely riding.
With Caccia in there as an independent and lots of intrigue between Silva and Pires, you have the makings of an interesting campaign.
Objectively, though, it looks like it will take some sort of nuclear meltdown for the Liberals to lose in this riding. 65% means that the united right is far from a factor here.
The Layton/Chow effect rubbing in from Trinity Spadina will play a role, but will not carry the day.
What prompted "the Ottawan" to write, though, are the fascinating identity politics factors at play here regarding the Portugese, the sexual orientations (I did not know this of Silva) and even the bits about Tony Dionisio and his puppets. Very informative stuff.
Still, here's a set of estimations by the Ottawan:
LIB 45%
NDP 20
IND 20
CON 10
others 5
I will spend some time listening to this one!
17/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
Email: [hidden]
Charles Caccia is the longest serving Member of Parliament in the country. He may have chosen to become an independent, but I still think he will win. Why? He received over 60% of the vote. Even if he loses 40% of this, he should still win. This will be a tight three way race between the NDP the Liberals and Mr. Caccia, but his shear popularity will win it for himself. The people of Davenport aren't going to change their MP just like that.
12/05/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
I probably would have put this riding in the NDP column before I found out the sitting Liberal MP is running as an IND. This is an obvious place for Layton's coat tails to do their work. Alexa took 7 atlantic MP's in with her, can Layton take as many or more?
10/05/04 Q
Mario Silva's edge comes not only from the fact that he's Portuguese but from the fact that, even though he was only a city councillor, he worked as an informal immigration agent assisting Portuguese landed immigrants in getting their citizenship. This means a lot of people figure they "owe" him. Still, the fact that there are two other Portuguese candidates in the race will take away votes as will Caccia's candidacy. Caccia, of course, is the wild card. Will he have enough workers and enough of a following to actually win the riding as an independent a la Nunziata? Caccia has been a fixture since 1968 and this will help him as will the fact that a lot of local Liberals do not like Silva and will be be motivated to work for Caccia out of loyalty to him or spite towards Silva. But Caccia is in his seventies and may not have the energy for an aggressive door knocking campaign. Also, as a left winger, Caccia will take votes away from the NDP as well as from Silva so his independent candidacy is a mixed blessing for Pires. Pires is openly gay which will not help him with socially conservative Portuguese immigrants so most of his vote will not be from the Portuguese community but from Anglo NDP types. Of course Silva is gay as well but he is not public about this (at least not to the Portuguese community) and has even, in the past, spread rumours in the Portuguese community about his rivals being gay. Of course, in a hotly contested race with Pires out of the closet it's quite likely that Silva will be outed in the Portuguese community so the "impediment" of Pires sexual orientation may become a moot issue or even backfire negatively on Silva perhaps to the benefit of Caccia.
10/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Leaving Caccia aside, Davenport's not really a Green-type riding; too poor and hyphenated-Canadian, even with creeping gentrification taken into account. (And Caccia didn't lose the nomination so much as he was machinated out of it--and there's a difference between being popular w/constituents and "popular" w/the nominating machine.) But an potential independent run by Caccia sends a complicated electoral message which might not signify at all an NDP split-decision victory; in fact, as w/Nunziata's '97 and '00 candidacies, it could wind up *hurting* the NDP instead. (Also don't forget that municipally, while the "favoured" NDP candidate won Silva's south half of the riding, the corresponding widely-endorsed north-half NDPer lost.) But definitely, w/the Layton-Miller tipping-point synergy running, Davenport's looking less like a federal-Liberal rubber-stamp seat than at any time since Caccia was first elected. And no, Mario Silva's orientation has nothing to! do with it.
08/05/04 The Masked Tory
Caccia in fact not NOT lose the nomination. He was not on the ballot for the Liberal nomination.
He didnt even run because he knew Silva had gone behind his back and taken over the riding association.
06/05/04 Jer
1)The green party has a reputation for being centerist?
2)If Charles Caccia has so much support in this riding, then why did he lose the nomination? (in the riding that he has been representing for over 3 decades)
06/05/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
It is wishful thinking to think Charles Caccia can win as an independent. Everything is arrayed against him.
Federally once in awhile an indepedent can get elected, but it takes a huge effort and the sort of self promoting and very political type person of a John Nunziata.
Caccia is a nice old guy, but he does not have the presence to win. Now if he ran as a Green. He could be the second potential Green win in Canada (the other being Andrew Lewis in Saanich and the Islands)
29/04/04 El Cacciatore
Email: [hidden]
Davenport will be one of the few seats to elect an Independent with Caccia having the last laugh. Mario Silva did not serve Davenport well as a City Councillor but does have an effective team around him and a chest-load of money courtesy of his business contacts. There will not be a shortage of snazzy and colourful but woefully misleading campaign materials. Rui Pires, Theresa Rodriguez and Mario will split the Portuguese vote. Caccia still retains a lot of support and sympathy especially from the northern half of Davenport, especially amongst long-time Liberals and the large voter turnout of the Italian population. This one will be fun and be one of the closest races where dirty tricks will be plenty!
29/04/04 C. Hubley
Email: [hidden]
Caccia will definitely draw off Liberal votes, but can he win? If he would join the Green Party, he might win. Everyone knows that independents can't do anything in parliament, but Caccia has great small-g green credentials, and the Greens are looking to cement their reputation as a centrist party. If Caccia joins the Greens, then, I'd give this to him, if only because electing Canada's first Green, and him being incumbent and respected to boot, is a way Davenport can make history. Peter Worthington and Deb Gray are examples of how this has worked before, "the maverick factor". But the Greens may have already nominated - too bad for all concerned.
28/04/04 Victor A.
Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
lol, Conservative party in Davenport? This time, I really fell off my chair. This just shows how desperate are these conservatives in the Toronto area where they'll fail to win a single riding. To take any candidate with no experience whatsoever and to pretend that she is going to win is a major overstatement, but I guess this is a tactic the PC uses. Being gay is sometimes an advantage over being a housewife and hopefully the PC will pay for their anti-gay attitude all over urban Canada including Toronto. Caccia is a respected gentelman but he has no chance against Mr Prime Minister's close friend Mr. Silva.
22/04/04 Again
Email: [hidden]
The Conservatives nominated a women named Theresa Rodrigues last night. Guess Silva wont be able to play the Portugese card anymore with the candidates from all three national parties having a Portugese candiate.
Rodrigues is married with several children, so look for Silva to lose a number of votes in this fairly old-school Catholic riding due to his sexual preference. Most people could care less about it, but my understanding is that the Portugese community is less tolerant than some others when it comes to homosexuality, and when Silva stands up to the married with kids, Rodrigues, he wont meet the scrutiny.
Going out on a ledge here to predict Caccia being the only Indepentant candidate elected in Ontario.
15/04/04 Newguy
Email: [hidden]
Caccia is running as an Independant. Although Independants have had little succes in the Canadian system, I really think this is an instance where he has a very good chance.
With the Liberals down in the polls, and anger about the Adscam growing, an apparently strong NDP candidate to draw support off Mario, and the fact Charles was pushed out with little regard for his experience, there is an opening.
It tears my heart because I am a Conservative at heart, but the CPC has little to no chance here.
12/04/04 John
Email: [hidden]
Silva did little for the area as City Councillor and lost a great deal of support. Bailao's City Councillor bid itself was adversely impacted by her connection to Silva. Silvas critical Portuguese vote is no longer secure. At his kick-off $150 a plate fundraiser, two weeks ago, the turnout was less than 1/2 that expected - he even had to switch to a smaller location. Most of the attendees were not even from the Davenport area, most were from the Mississauga and Brampton areas, many of whom had construction/development connections not surprising given Tony Dionisio's unwavering support of Mario, somewhat suspect - it appears Mr. Dionisio is interested in a Senate appointment - fortunately his two other political puppets Nellie Pedro and Ana Bailao failed to get elected. Tony would be wise to swing his force behind political alternatives to Mario. Mario's days seem numbered, thankfully.
07/04/04 Sen. McCheese
Email: [hidden]
Maria's post is a good explanation of why she'll vote NDP. But as a case that the rest of Davenport will do so, it's weak. Guess what -- ever since Trudeau, ethnic politics have WORKED for the Liberals. Besides, way too much is being made of the personalities andrecords of the local candidates. Like in every other Toronto riding, they're all nobodies or aspiring-nobodies. It's all about Martin vs. Layton in Davenport, or more accurately Lib vs. NDP. And as they always do in this riding, the Libs will win by at least 20%.
This is one case where the site admin has erred in favour of the NDP in labeling it "too close."
Editors Note: Don't assume you know what is going through our heads.
31/03/04 Maria
Email: [hidden]
Rui is Portuguese by birth and a fiercely proud Canadian, he speaks Portuguese and three other languages fluently. He won the Davenport nomination impressively, without ethnic politics, rumors of "vote rigging" and nasty heave-hos to incumbents. Mario Silva represented the area poorly as City Councillor, as most Davenport residents well know. His election strategy has been largely ethnic politics, highly guilt-invoking, vote for me I'm Portuguese, if you don't you don't support your own people - he preaches that Portuguese people need a "Portuguese voice" to represent them - which is offensive, the Portuguese community is a Canadian community and it needs a Canadian voice and to assert its rights as Canadians and not as some second class citizen minority group - Shame on Mario.
31/03/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
Very easy Liberal win, the Liberals are not that bad in the polls. The Liberal vote was 60%. Liberal 45%, NDP 35%, CPC 20%.
30/03/04 Bluepunkfiddle
Email: [hidden]
I would by no means bet the farm on it, but the NDP has a credible chance to win this time around. Liberal Mario Silva is vulnerable on a number of fronts, all of his own making. His history of poor constituency work has left him without the solid support of the southern part of the riding he represented as a city councillor. That fact (and certainly not simply the support of David Miller) led to the victory of Adam Giambrone over Mario's handpicked successor Ana Bailao. In addition, his ungentle nudging out of longtime Liberal incumbant Charles Caccia (who may run as an independent), as well as an acrimonious nomination contest, have disrupted the usually smooth Liberal machine in Davenport. As well, Silva may find his reliance on rough west end politics a bit difficult to translate into the federal arena. With that in mind, and a dynamic Portugese NDP candidate with strong roots in the riding (rumourmongers beware), this will definately be a race to keep an eye on.
28/03/04 Mike
Email: m.foderick@utoronto.ca
The NDP have been calling this a "potential pickup" almost since the days of Tommy Douglas and it hasn't happened yet. No NDP candidate, Provincally or Federally has ever done well here. The NDP would has to quadruple their vote just to have a shot at winning on a vote split, if (big if) it splits much at all. If Tony Silipo as an incumbent could't win it, no novice will.
If the Liberals ever go the way of the Tories in 1993, this riding will be one of the 2 seats they keep. Davenport will be Liberal until ten years after the earth crashes into the sun.
26/03/04 Jer
Email: jer@jerscape.ca
This is a fairly safe Liberal seat. They could run a hampster and still win it. If Adam Giambrone ran, maybe the NDP could pick it up and while I don't think the Conservatives have a chance this time, I wouldn't discount them entirely, they'll pull off a decent showing.
26/03/04 EP
Email: [hidden]
Wow that was quite some Silva propaganda. Caccia's popularity is still high in the riding. The fact that he does not have a team of nasty party hecks running dirty tricks campaign on the ground does not stop him from being an outstanding MP. The fact that he supported Sheila Copps rather than Paul Martin thus not having connections to the "renewed" liberal establishment bending the nomination and membership rules for him does not mean he is not respect throughout the riding and beyond. Keep in mind, Elections Canada has much less tolerance than the Liberal Party office for intimidation, vote buying, blatent racial discrimination at the polling booth, and backroom dealing.
25/03/04 Editor's Note
The two previous entries, from "Louis" and "Ben" were generated by the same computer. The editing panal decided to waive our usual filtering rules and allowed them to be posted as, while we may not necessary agree with the sentiment, we believe they provide insights into the background of this race that is not previously raised.
24/03/04 Louis
Email: [hidden]
Although part of the downtown ridings that the NPD has in its sight, Davenport differs radically from downtown riding. Its population makeup gives a significant advantage to the Liberal Party, which has been the traditional political choice for first and second generation Canadians.
It is my impression that Mr. Caccia has not been treated unfairly at all. As all other incumbent he was given the opportunity to participate in the democratic process by contesting the nomination. In fact, in my opinion, party rules favoured him by giving him access to membership forms that no other nomination candidates had access to. Mr. Caccia chose not to run and that is a fact - he was not mistreated he opted to carry the liberal colours any further.
Suggestions that the riding in start to lean towards the NDP based solely on the municipal election results are ludicrous. Mr Giambrone, a political neophyte that has been absent from the local scene since the election has simply benefited from the Miller factor as well as relied on deception by pretending to be liberal leaning when asked about his political stripes by local residents. Once party lines are clear, as they are in the federal arena there is no doubt that the Liberal banner will carry the day.
I am confident that Mr. Silva has the experience, the know-how and the energy to represent Davenport well in Ottawa. To his credit he has assembled a good team and that is always the sign of a good leader.
24/03/04 Ben
Email: [hidden]
Davenport is Liberal and will stay Liberal. A quick look at previous election statistics shows that the combined tory/alliance vote still outpolled the NDP. Any claim by the NDP that they have a chance of winning this riding is sheer (and typical) brava-do by their propagandist machinery.
The new NDP candidate Rui Pires is a parachute from outside of the riding, and a less feared competitor to Mario Silva than Gerry Butt (a seasoned political NDP veteran) would have been. As of today, there is no Conservative candidate nominated.
74 year old Charles Caccia did not try to run for the Liberal nomination, lacked the on the ground support and in all fairness to his winning or policy record, has not lived in the Riding for the past 8 years.
Mario's rise to become the next Liberal candidate for Davenport the outcome of a Liberal party renewal process that will ultimately make the Party more representative of its communities. Mario has the proven elected leadership experience as he represented the bottom half of the riding for 9 years as a City Councillor, knows how to canvass, speaks the language, knows the area and the issues. (His constituency assistant, Ana lost her municipal race due to the popularity coat-tail effect of NDP mayor David Miller backing NDP candidates - Ana was aligned with Barbara Hall)
Davenport's next Member of Parliament will be Mario Silva.
20/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We're not going to make a call on Davenport yet (waiting to see if Mr. Caccia will run as an independent). However we'd like to forwarn people who are predicting an easy Liberal victory that when a popular MP is rushed out of office, there is often a backlash. Cases in point Herb Grey and George Baker in Windsor West and Gander-Grand falls respectivly. The by-elections were suppose to be easy Liberal wins, yet the NDP and the PC won those ridings respectivly and are likely to keep them. Bottom line to a party, DON'T HONK OFF THE VOTERS!
19/03/04 Gerry
Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
I'm going to say Liberal but it is by no means certain. If the NDP is doing well and Caccia runs as an independent, I could smell an upset. Still, that's not likely.
An open seat. Incumbent Caccia has been badly treated by his party, and Liberal Mario Silva is taking it for granted that he can count on always winning. But he couldn't get his former exec assistant elected in his old City of Toronto ward, and he faces a strong challenger in Rui Pires. Close, but i think the Liberals are due to lose this one.
18/03/04 Austin Hilton
(posting intended for St. Paul's relocated)
18/03/04 Glen Holme
Email: mattnfodor@hotmail.com
The Liberals are likely to prevail in this riding, but I would disagree that it's one of the safest Liberal ridings in the province (largely Jewish or Italian suburban ridings like York Center or Thornhill are in my opinion much safer for the Liberals in my view). The NDP has a good shot here, due to its upsurge in the polls under Layton (most likely more so in Toronto) and a very strong candidate in Rui Pires. Pires is a Portuguese Canadian and has very strong community activist credentials. He's a good contrast to former candidate Jordan Berger, an NDP Third Wayer and party hack/policy wonk-type.
Davenport is heavily Portuguese and the most working class riding in Old Toronto. There is a small yuppie element developing around Queen Street and Dufferin Grove, and there's the middle class neighborhood of Regal Heights, but it's overwhelmingly a very working class riding, heavily immigrant riding. Some NDPers of the champagne socialist variety have pointed to the growing left-yuppie element (not their words) and think that they can win the riding by winning those people. This won't work. Davenport isn't Trinity-Spadina. It's a very small proportion of the riding.
Pires speaks fluent Portuguese and speaks Spanish as well, which should help him out in the large Portuguese and Latino communities. He's also got the "activist" credentials. He's the kind of candidate the NDP can win with. So I'm predicting it's too close to call.
17/03/04 Price
Email: [hidden]
Masked Tory's prediction hinges on the degree to which Davenport proves to have been a Charles Caccia rather than a Liberal seat all these many years. The Liberal Mario Silva comes straight out of the West-end dirty pool school of Liberal party politicking and will be a tough competitor. But with Caccia out of the picture (provided he doesn't choose to run as an independent) this riding is up for grabs. If so,I would put my money on the NDP, which has nominated an energetic young Portuguese candidate who is probably much better positioned than a tory will be to capitalize on any Liberal slippage.
15/03/04 The Masked Tory
One of the safest Liberal ridings in the Province. Well known, if weak Liberal candidate in Mario Silva, who wrestled the nomination from the sitting (since '64} MP Charles Caccia which might have upset a few long time members in Davenport. NDP might stand to gain a little with some protest votes, but not enough to win. The Conservatives have no chance here, despite the recent merger and an apparently excellent new Executive in the riding.

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