Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
York South-Weston

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Alan Tonks
Canadian Alliance:
Dan Houssar
Progressive Conservative Party:
Jason Daniel Baker
New Democratic Party:
Tom Parkin
John Nunziata
Marxist-Leninist Party:
anna Dicarlo
Communist Party:
Hassan Husseini
Green Party:
Denis Calnan

IND John Nunziata

Previous Result:
IND 45.03%

Surrounding Ridings:
Etobicoke Centre
Etobicoke North
Parkdale-High Park
York Centre
York West

Population: 104 201
Avg Household Income 42 179
Submitted Information
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02/10/00 K.J.C. Email:
John Nunziata will win re-election if he uses the same strategy plans in his last campaign.
If he decides to run under an Alliance banner, he may have betrayed his own constituents. If he does win under the Alliance banner, is not because the people in the riding voted for Alliance is because they voted for John Nunziata.
11/10/00 AL Email:
John Nunziata's star has faded along with the GST issue. He's also bored with the Commons as evidenced by his abortive run for the job of Toronto Mayor. Nunziata's vote will drop and Allan Tonks, the Liberal candidate, former Mayor of York and ex-Metro Chairman will benefit. A much stronger candidate than Judy Sgro who ran for the Grits last time, Tonks should put this one back in the Liberal column.
18/10/00 Email:
Disagree that Alan Tonks would beat out John Nunziata. John is a shrwed politician. He has already decided to run for re-election. The Nunziata RED MACHINERY is revving to go. He has his supporters and his campaign is very well organized. He may not have the money but he has the manpower to get out the vote. And I don't think his constituents are ready to vote for a Liberal lapdog for the prime minister.
22/10/00 Snickerdo
Another Nunziata win. He'll win the riding, and now that Gib Parent isn't running for Niagara Centre he'll go on to be speaker of the house.
23/10/00 J Smith Email:
The GST was a big boost 3 years ago, but will be of no help this time. The Liberals were somewhat humiliated to loose this seat last time, they will not let it happen again. The Liberals will make sure they get out their votes in this riding, and Nunziata will be finished. It was an interesting run for him, but the party's over. Liberal gain.
25/10/00 Mike Wakefield Email:
Too close to call. Mr. Nunziata is the person most likely to stop the Liberals from sweeping Toronto.
26/10/00 Christopher J. Currie EMAIL:
Nunziata's flirtations with Day and Harris should be enough to sink him in this decidedly *non*-Harris riding.
26/10/00 AL EMAIL:
There's a rumour that the Canadian Alliance is planning *not* to run a candidate in this riding in hopes of wooing Nunziata into joining the CA caucus after the election. With Nunziata picking up the votes of CA voters as a result his position in York South Weston is less assialable.
30/10/00 Bluenoser Email:
AL raises an interesting point. The CA not running a candidate... 1) now is this a top-down decision from the "grassroots party"? 2) having (another) MP crossing the floor to their caucus without being duly elected under that party's ticket? These would be only two more flip-flops the CA has committed. If these hit the light of day (no pun intended), many voters in the 905 belt could get incensed that they are simply voting for the smoke-and-mirrors party.
30/10/00 AL
Nunziata is fading. In 1997 the NDP had hoped that the Liberal/Nunziata vote splitting would help the NDP retake what had been an NDP stronghold provincially until Bob Rae quit the legislature and federally from the 1940s until David Lewis held the seat in the 1970s. This time the NDP is not targetting the riding so it's likely that in light of Nunziata's flirtation with the Alliance many NDPers as well as those soft NDPers who voted for Nunziata in 1997 will vote Liberal. Also looks like Nunziata's heart isn't in it what with his abortive campaign for Mayor and his flirtation with running in another riding.
30/10/00 Christopher J. Currie
Nunziata could actually be hurt if the CA doesn't run a candidate here, and it's obvious that the party is supporting his candidacy. Why? Because it's *York South-Weston*, for heaven's sake, and the Alliance is not at all popular here -- and many of those who voted for Nunziata last time will flock back to the Liberals now. (Mind you, I suspect that Nunziata's right-wing ties are already too blatant to save him, his disingenuous decision to run as an Independent aside.)
01/11/00 J. Reed
Alan Tonks is going to crush Nunziata. Nunziata has used up all of his political lives: in 1996 he flirts with the Tories, then he flirts with Reform/Alliance, then the TO mayor's post. Smart move by the Liberals to recruit Tonks. He'll make mincemeat out of little turncoat.
03/11/00 A.S.
No Alliance? No problem...well, if Judy Sgro did best in North York's "Cordiano country", York's Tonks is positioned to carry the rest; I can see those gears of Liberal logic working. But still, amidst all the predictions of Nunziata's defeat, Tonks himself remains an enigma who, in the end, might still bear the fatal mantle of appointed-candidate hackdom. He may play Alliance footsie, but Nunziata's irrepressible; he still excites his constituents; he may be able to ward off any star the Libs fling at him like autumn leaves...but I was wrong on Sewell last year, so I'll defer an opinion.
04/11/00 JeffW Email:
Nunziata might have had a chance against a weaker Liberal candidate, but Tonks will rack up huge numbers. The dubious benefits of re-electing a marginalized gadfly will be outweighed by Tonks' local profile, his cabinet prospects and a fair chunk of Nunziata's supporters being spooked by his flirtation with the Alliance.
06/11/00 Other Email:
It is crazy to expect that Tonks will beat Nunziata. Tonks was a Metro councillor facing very little opposition locally for a very long time. When polling was done for Megacity mayor, he didn't crack 10 percent. He has not appeared on a ballot locally for the past 6 years. I am not a liberal or a fan of Nunziata (who would be?) But apart from province wide numbers (didn't help Sgro last time) there is no reason to expect Tonks to do anything but tank.
08/11/00 TP Email:
As it turns out, there is an Alliance candidate. Although the CA is only good for about 2000 votes, 1500 of them would probably have gone for Nunziata, who has been pandering to the "boot camp" law & order types. Tonks doesn't have the "appointed candidate" albatros that Sgro had, is well known in the area and hasn't been in an open conflict with the police force (Sgro was a police commissioner who often tangled with the force's union), which gave Sgro the brush of a "soft-on-crime" Liberal. Tonks doesn't have these negatives. Tonks problem is that he's incredibly boring and will be another backbench do-nothing collecting a salary and pension. In 1997, Nunziata took votes from the NDP big time -- he'd told Chretien to stuff it and it was a matter of local pride to up the establishment. But in the last four years Nunziata has really amounted to little in the way of substance. Where will these New Democrats go?
09/11/00 AL
"Other" seems to forget that Tonks was also a long time alderman and then Mayor of York before he became a Metro Councillor for the area. The local CA riding association voted *against* running a candidate in York South Weston, this decision was overruled by the CA leadership which parachuted in a candidate in the last minute. This will take some votes away from Nunziata both in the form of CA partisans voting for their own candidate and anti-CA voters realising that Nunziata is a wolf in sheep's clothing.
14/11/00 Eldo Brougham Email:
The scene here in york south weston is as follows. John Nunziata is a principled man who voted against the GST, something few politicans in traditional parties have done in Canada. To say there is no mileage left in the GST is dead wrong, the liberals have gone on to break many more promises,are now seen as total opportunists calling an early election for Crouton's ego. The truth about Health care is starting to emerge from under the liberal nonsense and partisan spin. John is well liked and respected here.He is knowledgeable,personable and genuinely helpful and concerned with the constituents. I am a member of the Alliance who sees John as an independant decent man who is capable of beating a liberal. And Yes there is an Alliance candidate here.
17/11/00 MH Email:
With an Alliance candidate now in the field, Nunziata will probably get knocked off, though probably not by much. Tonks may be a bore, but he's a heavy hitter. And Metro is going to go so heavily Liberal it'll take a minor miracle for Nunziata to survive the flood. Tonks by a long nose.
John Nunziata will win again...his views and knowledge of government are too strong to be ignored. Nunziata's derparture from the liberal party showed that was ready to help Canadians get what they want without the backing of a party. His leadership will not be overlooked in the upcoming election.
24/11/00 Email:
It appears that only John Nunziata will be able to withstand the Liberal tide in Ontario.
24/11/00 SM Email:
Usually I would say that this riding would go to Nunziata, but I noticed that the Liberals who posted messages on the message board make compelling arguments. I also notice that John Nunziata has turned into a bit of a snob, if I may, that opinion based on the attitude he gave Tobin when he "ran into" him on the campaign trail, have I just started paying attention, or is this new, I never cared about him before now, so I may not have noticed. But I think I will still say that this is anyones race because he is considerably popular, so I hear.
26/11/00 lrs Email:
Nunziata to hold seat- if Liberals did not win last time -it will be difficult to hold their collective noses and vote for Lib Tonks this time- too easy of a protest vote this time
26/11/00 Marco Anglesio
Based on my highly unscientific drive-through in and around Weston this weekend, I'd tend to say that Tonks will knock off Nunziata. More signs, more visible support - from what friends of mine who live in York South - Weston say, Tonks is doing very well when it comes to ground troops covering the area, making phone calls, pamphleting, and knocking on doors. Now, the presence of ground troops doesn't decide an election. However, York South - Weston would be a cakewalk for the Liberals if it weren't for Nunziata. Nunziata even uses the Liberal colours in his promotional material, presumably in order to use old materials which he bought before his expulsion from caucus. He was a well-known Liberal MP. It isn't a stretch to assume that a large part of his 1997 voter base was bled from otherwise strong Liberal voters. Unfortunately for him, he doesn't seem to be sufficiently locally popular or possess a strong enough local machine to keep them.

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Last Updated 26 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
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