Prediction Changed
3:48 PM 07/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Edmonton East
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Capnerhurst, Trey
Goldring, Peter
Laskoski, Stephanie
New Democratic
Martin, Ray

Peter Goldring

2006 Result:
Peter Goldring **
Nicole Martel
Arlene Chapman
Trey Capnerhurst

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

08 10 12 binriso
I definitely hope there is an upset. Martin was 12 points above the provincial average in 2000 (17.5% as opposed to 5.5 province wide), with a strong Liberal candidate(former MLA) in that race as well and Goldring as the incumbent for the Alliance. Not to mention the Alliance was the big western protest party last time, which hurt NDP support. And then again, former leaders of provincial parties never seem to do good in Alberta(well if they arent running for the CPC), Ken Nicol ran for the Liberals and got beaten by 40 points in Lethbridge. Then again, with the NDP getting more than 9000 votes with a relatively no-name candidate, theres certainly room for growth. But its like a 99% chance of a CPC win. And of course this is the only seat the NDP ever won in Alberta(in 1988).
08 10 08 DL
I'm hearing rumours that the NDP is poised for an upset here. This is actually the poorest riding in Alberta and is the Edmonton equivalent of Winnipeg North. Ray Martin is very respected and with Tory support dropping like a stone - the ultimate shocker would be an NDP win here and a near miss in Strathcona!
08 09 17 binriso
Interestingly enough Ray Martin IS running here for the NDP. He somewhat surprisingly lost to Vandermeer in the provincial election, so I wouldnt say hed win here, but hell definitely give Goldring a good run, and probably win 25-30% of the votes here. In other matters, the Liberals will lose a bunch of votes here too, Greens will gain some while Goldring should probably win by 15-20%. Then again, an NDP win isnt entirely out of the question if Harper slips up really badly and the NDP were set to win 2 seats here, I suppose anythings possible although improbable.
And the Liberals sure wont be making much of an effort to win here either, in comparison to past elections anyways.
08 03 19 binriso
His loss in the provincial election frees up Ray Martin to run here for the NDP if they need a candidate. (I think it was this riding in 1997 and 2000 that he ran in). That?d probably give the NDP 2nd place since he is the best they can do with regards to star candidates in Alberta for the NDP(only maybe Grant Notleys ghost is better), still though 10000 votes or so behind the CPC. Heck Martin managed 17.5% vs Goldrings ~42% in 2000 which is pretty damn good for the 2000 NDP. Given other circumstances it would be winnable for the NDP with a good candidate (like they won it in 88). Notice how it is really boring to predict Albertan ridings so a side story has to be made up to show at least some interest in the relatively close ridings........
08 02 26 A.S.
Flip a coin: it's either the second most likely Alberta seat after Edmonton Centre to go Liberal, or it's the second most likely Alberta seat after Edmonton-Strathcona to go NDP. And while y'all are flipping, Peter Goldring's laughing all the way to the PM-Harper-era bank--though if Harper weren't PM, he'd be looking behind his back while laughing; and if Harper weren't CPC leader, he might find himself thinking twice about laughing...
07 10 10 Jason
This is one of the most left leaning ridings in Alberta, but it's still in Alberta. That means that a star Liberal or NDP candidate might make this one close, particularly if the Liberals have a shot at government and their candidate becomes a cabinet favourite come election day. Otherwise, the Conservatives have nothing to worry about.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
Not exactly your typical Tory riding in terms of it being urban and diverse, but lets remember this is Alberta and even areas that wouldn't go Conservative in other provinces do here, so Gouldring should win once again, albeit by a much smaller margin than most of his Alberta colleagues.

Submit Information here

Provincial Index
Federal Election - 2007
Election Prediction Project -
© Milton Chan, 1999-2007 - Email Webmaster