Prediction Changed
10:11 PM 20/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Delta-Richmond East
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Barna, Szilvia
Cummins, John
Laine, Matthew
Miller, Dana L.

John Cummins

2006 Result:
John Cummins **
Patricia Whittaker
William Jonsson
Jean-Philippe Laflamme

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 10 Tommie
Yes - John Cummins will win this riding again. However, I just want to stress that I believe that things are shifting. A surge in development in the Tsawwassen area will bring in younger families who lean Liberal. Further, the Richmond side of the riding will continue to grow and this is where the Liberals stand to gain big. Also, a lot of the Conservative support in this riding isn't necessarily Conservative's *John Cummins* support. So when he retires (which will be sooner than later) it'll add to the shift that is bound to take place in DRE.
08 02 17 A.S.
Richmond's increasing prominence within the riding hints at Liberal potential here; but as Cummins has always had a bit of an independent-minded ‘John McCain’ quality among the ReformAllianceConservative caucus, he, somewhat like James Young, has the personal goods to withstand most any potential Greater Vancouver anti-Tory backlash.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
Richmond portion is a swing riding, however South Delta unlike North Delta is mostly older white upper middle class suburban voters, otherwise your prime target for the Conservatives. This group will vote strongly conservative as they always have and combine that with the fact John Cummins is a bit of a maverick MP who doesn't mind breaking party ranks from time to time, should also help.

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