Prediction Changed
12:33 PM 02/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Kingston and the Islands
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Family Coalition
New Democratic
Progressive Conservative

Kingston and the Islands (98.1%)
Hon John Gerretsen
Hastings-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington (1.9%)
Hon Leona Dombrowsky

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 09 jebby
The difference is just too great for the NDP or Conservatives to make up. In the Kingston area there are a lot of NDP signs up but the rural areas are definitely not their strongest. First place Liberals, NDP in second, Conservatives third.
07 10 07 King of Kensington
Or to paraphrase A.S., historically conservative Queen's is not Bob Jones U. That may have been true some time ago but today it is a liberal campus. I believe the best NDP and Green polls and worst Conservative polls are around the university.
07 10 06 A.S.
The elitist-Tory-enclave myth about Queens is just that--a myth. In fact, the Queens polls are such where Liberals might touch par, the NDP and Green will be way over par, and PC will be way under par. Just like any other university. Especially given the NDP candidate calibre, expect the PCs to be third or even fourth in the Queens polls. Sure, it might have been different a generation or two ago, but...
07 10 05 Brendan
Although i do believe that the conservatives will see an increase vote count the liberals will still win Kingston and Islands. Generally the rural areas around kingston will be split between the conservatives and the liberals, while most of kingston will go solidly liberal. The only interesting part of Kingston is the area around Queen's University. The school known as an elitist tory enclave will lean towards john tory.
07 09 18 King of Kensington
While the NDP may be running a strong candidate, I can't see them winning this riding. If Kingston were a riding like Halifax or Victoria I could see it swinging NDP. However the old city of Kingston is only about half of the riding and the outskirts of Kingston just isn't competitive territory for the NDP. At best they'll beat out the Conservatives for second place.
Since the old city of Kingston is Tory-phobic territory and the NDP can't be competitive outside of it, the Liberals win here by default.
07 09 17 William St Resident
Gerretsen wil win, but it won't be as convincing as his last result. Despite being an overwhelmingly Liberal town, the Conservatives always have a core vote in Kingston and in the outlying rural areas that are in the riding (in the north of the city) as well as some Wolfe Island residents.
In addition, Gord Downes is a very credible and relatively high profile candidate for the NDP. While I think some NDPers are overstating his ability to draw moderate votes away from the other parties, his presence as a credible candidate can only help the NDP, probably taking their vote above 20 percent.
That being said, the closest race will be for second, while Gerretsen keeps the riding with about 40 percent of the vote.
07 09 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Wow! Who would have thought it? The NDP are running a well-known, hard-working, well-respected, amicable candidate in this riding. Everyone knows that you win elections with unfamiliar, lazy, surly candidates! What was the NDP thinking?!?! Now that we vented our sarcasm, good candidate or not, very seldom do you overcome a nearly 60% margin with a good candidate. The NDP is only up by 3% (last we heard) over last election. Yes they will do better, but not in ridings where the Liberals had 60% of the vote and NDP had a pitiful 11%. Besides, last time we went through Kingston, it looked very much like a city. Urban voters tend to look at parties, not candidates. So unless Gerrestsen starts pelting voters with eggs or something, he's not going to be tossed out so easily.
07 09 13 Election Analyst
I'm going to be in the minority here, but I really think that this should be taken out of the Liberal column and put into the TCTC column right now. Nobody here has mentioned the strength of the NDP's Rick Downes yet - he is a very popular former city councillor who almost won the mayorlty in the last election. He has strong name recognition throughout the riding, and is well respected by many Kingstonians as a hard worker and a committed public servant. Additionally, Gerretsen is not as well-loved by Kingstonians as people outside the riding might think. Perhaps he won't win it all, but I don't think at this point in the campaign that it's safe to say that Gerretsen will take this in a cakewalk - if the Liberals aren't careful here they could lose this one.
07 09 11 A.S.
Given that Kingston's a seat where the Green vote has typically reached into the 6/7% range, I'd suggest that the best Fournier can hope for is a distant *fifth*. (Overwrought proclamations were made on behalf of the Freedom Party in '03, too; and none of their candidates did better than 2%--didn't help that their signage looked like an ugly Sorny/Panaphonics/Magnetbox rendition of PC signage. Are Free Dominioners *that* off their gourd?)
07 09 11 Nick J Boragina
I?m writing with some information. Mark Fournier, owner of the popular conservative website Free Dominion is running here for the Freedom Party of Ontario. Unfortunately for Mark, who is a rather nice fellow, the best he can hope for is a distant 4th. The Liberals will win here.
07 08 25 A.S.
Would this be a seat where every single poll went Liberal? Under the circumstances, it might as well be more of a race for distant second--heck, a *three-way* race for distant second...
07 08 19 Brian A
I live in Cornwall in S-D-SG, but it's common knowledge here in Ontario that Kingston is the Liberal bastion of Eastern Ontario. All of Eastern O could go Tory, but Kingston will always stay red.
07 06 01 The Jackal
No doubt a solid Liberal hold here. Last I heard the PC's were scrambling to find a candidate here.
07 05 10 Rural Analyst
John Gerretsen to hold.
The liberal island in a conservative sea, Kingston has been solidly Liberal both federally and provincially for quite some time. The presence of a large public service and a major university may make the NDP stronger, but the margin is just too great. The PC's might also make slight inroads, but they need to be viewed as a moderate party (which has the side effect of hurting them in the rural areas surrounding). Gerretsen should remain in cabinet for sure if the Liberals are re-elected.
07 05 09 Observer
Liberal landslide no matter how many ever optimistic NDP or Tory footsoldiers think that their candidate is just SO GREAT this time. We've heard it all before here.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
This is a Red Tory riding that went Tory federally when they were more centrist under Bill Davis provincially, Robert Stanfield and Joe Clark federally, but swung away from them under Mulroney (and even more so under Harper) and Harris provincially. Even though John Tory maybe a Red Tory, the party still isn't viewed as one so he will have to win the next election and prove he is a Bill Davis type Tory before he has a realistic shot at winning this.
07 03 31 Rey D.R.
Pretty safe Liberal seat. Popular Liberal brand-name here and popular siting MPP/Cabinet Minister in Gerretsen.

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