Prediction Changed
1:04 PM 02/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

No Affiliation
Progressive Conservative
New Democratic
Party for People with Spe

Trinity-Spadina (96%)
Rosario Marchese
Toronto Centre-Rosedale (2.3%)
Hon George Smitherman
Parkdale-High Park (1.7%)
Cheri DiNovo

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 10 Andrew MacKinnon
Clearly an NDP safe seat. Probably due to the university and Chinatown. Almost all the lawn signs I've seen are NDP, a few are Liberal and almost no Conservative signs.
07 10 08 Old Willowdaler
Another comment to Erin Wong's post as I dont think she knows this area very well AT ALL. As odd as it may seem the federal and Provincial versions of this seat are NIGHT and DAY. The provincial wing needs somebody like Tony Ianno who is not afraid to work to win this seat. Also the provincial people of Rosario are in my respectful opinion a lot straighter than their federal associates (The whole ‘vouching’ bit during the last 2 fed elections ((1 guy with no id on the voters list then creating a daisy chain for a bunch not on the list and with NO ID by ‘vouching’ for them)) Federally you have a DEEP DISLIKE between the Grits and Dippers because of such antics and such tactics are just not Rosario's way
07 10 07 Old Willowdaler
Erin I hate to tell you this but most of the posters on here are either Grits (myself born with a party membership) or Tories -M Lunn & Ryan Ontario and rarely agree but when it comes to this seat PC and Liberal alike its reality that makes us say Marchese. I worked this seat last 2 feds with Tony Ianno and by god you got to give the dippers in this area respect. I also know Rosario Marchese and he is the NDP Tony Ruprecht no one can work a riding like this guy (Jack and Oliva could take lessons) and he unlike many dippers genuinely believes in what he says and not only talks the talk but walks the walks and those of us in the other parties can respect him for that even if we disagree (PS John Tory you might want to get some advice from Rosario:) As I have said look for Rosario to break 50% this time around and that is from a member of the Trinity Spadina Federal Liberal association
07 10 07 King of Kensington
Erin Wong seems to be unfamiliar with the politics of Trinity-Spadina. First of all, I was struck by the comment that Little Italy is ‘swarming with Holloway signs.’ I ventured over there today (along Manning, Clinton, Claremont and thereabouts) and all but one of the signs I saw were NDP signs. There was one lone Liberal sign.
Second, while the Liberals CAN win T-S, they actually have to run a real, live campaign. Federally Tony Ianno - lousy an MP as he was - did actually aggressively campaign in the riding. Provincially it is different. The last time Rosario faced a serious challenge was from Bob Wong in '95, who tried to reclaim the seat.
Kate Holloway is even more invisible than Nellie Pedro's nonexistent campaign before her. Kate too will be crushed - because if you are a Liberal who does nothing and expects to win T-S just because of the provincewide trend and/or some ‘hidden’ Liberal vote - you have no chance of winning Trinity-Spadina (unless the NDP vote falls below 10% province-wide).
My prediction: NDP 58%, LIB 25%, PC 9%, GRN 5%, others 2%
07 10 06 Erin Wong
I suspect this thread contains a lot of NDPers slapping each other on the back. Debates are stacked with party loyalists and do little to nothing to swing voters, and in Trinity-Spadina, more so. The debates there have been heavily NDP-sympathetically organized, and Kate held her own. Marchese, who is trying to glide to victory in this campaign (more so this time than previous), fails to impress in these debates. His entire campaign is built around party brand, and he lacks the talents clearly evident in quality NDPers such as Cheri DiNovo and Peter Tabuns.
The NDP wins sign wars all the time in many ridings... and still lose. They are famous for it. That being said, I've seen Little Italy swarming with Holloway signs, and there's no lack of them around Rosario's campaign office either.
Marchese has bleed campaigners from his ‘safe’ seat to the races in Davenport and Danforth. He has left himself vulnerable.
07 10 05 King of Kensington
Whatever the floor of Liberal support is in T-S - I would guess around 25% - that is what Kate Holloway will get. The last time Rosario Marchese faced a serious challenge from the Libs was in the re-match with Bob Wong in '95! Rosario will win by his biggest margin ever!
07 10 03 Trinity Bellwoods
Kate Holloway must have looked good on paper, but a campaign is not paper. That is what the Liberals get for appointing someone in at the last minute. Rosario could come out against motherhood and he would still win by more than he did last time.
07 10 03 MGK
After the candidates' debate last night, I'm revising my prediction from an easy NDP victory to an NDP landslide. Holloway is a poor public speaker, apparently nervous in front of a crowd, and frequently stammering. Moreover, her repeated suggestion that voters should choose a member of the governing party in order to get favours for their riding did not go over well with a crowd that apparently preferred more principled government. Meanwhile, Tyler Currie came across as thoughtful, earnest, likeable, and moderate, so centre-right swing voters will have a choice they can feel comfortable about. Marchese, meanwhile, held his ground.
07 10 03 Old Willowdaler
Yes indeed Helena Guergis is a federal MP and minister now. Seats like this are a good training ground. If you can take the heat hear and bump your party's standings its a boost to your prospects as if you can take the licks and come out on top (that does not mean a win) then you proved your worth. Sadly I think Kate will NOT improve the liberal numbers and secondly from what I have heard she is not in training for a plumb cabinet post. I broke out laughing when I overheard someone (I presume a staffer) talking about how she was like Martha Hall Findly (Would suggest that staffer have his coffee ration reduced for the duration!) Rosario will likely get 50-54% of the vote.
07 10 03 Old Willowdaler
I spoke to my NDP contacts who were in fact shocked that the PCs broke 15%. They offered various reasons--- Liberals angry voting PC that sort of thing. Federally the PC's run less than 10%. Frankly it will be less than 10% In my respectfull opinion this time around. Mea Culpa none the less. Rosario will increase in Margin htis time. Last time he had the handicap of Joe Pantalone in the west part of the riding which is heavy dipper. The Givins Shaw/Dovercourt area was angry at Joe over some developments and his proposal for Shaw street and despite the fact Rosario supported us against Joe they took it out on him. I know several lifelong dippers who voted for the other parties and they can be expected to return to the fold this time
07 10 01 Nick J Boragina
Update from the riding. I ran in the municipal election in the western half of this riding and can attest that it is a very left-wing place. One of my opponents, George Sawision is running here as an independent. He might get a point or two. Marchese has been left to run away with victory. The PC candidate is nowhere to be found, and the Liberals are having trouble even getting signs up. For every 2 houses I saw last federal election with Liberal signs up, I see one provincially. The exact opposite is true for the NDP. Though they do seem to be the same houses, it seems that NDPers are far more enthusiastic here then Liberals are about their chances of winning. Holloway is trying to play herself as the Green candidate, which is odd since there is a Green candidate, but whatever. Unless the Liberals actually get off their butts, and start to run a campaign here, the NDP will walk away with between 50% and 60% of the vote.
07 09 30 F.M.
Holloway came within a hair of getting kicked out of the green party when she jumped ship to the Libs. The greens have been celebrating ever since. She was a very destructive force and not a particularly good candidate either. The greens gain is the Liberal's loss though, and as everyone has seen by the very poor Liberal sign presence, canvassing, and performance at the debates, this will be a easy victory for the N.D.P.
07 09 30 KensingTom
In response to Pete, i don't think you can compare Helena Guergis and Kate Holloway despite some obvious similarities of suicide bids.
Guergis' campaign was weak to say the least but she gave credible personal performances in debates and public appearances. Holloway can make no such claim.
While much blame can be placed on the riding association and campaign manager, what kind of candidate can't manage to get out election signs while representing the governing party in an otherwise urban stronghold with safe party seats in surrounding ridings?
Ms. Holloway's debate performances have been weak across the board. No blame can be put on the party for this.
This is not a Helena Guergis in the making.
07 09 27 Steve Van Groningen
I attended the candidates' debate at UofT last night. Kate Holloway appeared completely unenthusiastic about much of what she said - at times I would not have been surprised had she been reading from straight talking points or press releases when answering questions about post-secondary education. Rosario Marchese, Dan King and Tyler Currie at least talked like they actually wanted to be there!
07 09 27 Pete
As just about everyone has noted, Marchese will win this in a walk. I'm usually just around the university part of the riding, so his support's a bit exaggerated here, but from what I gather he has a lot of support throughout the constituency. It's a shame, because there aren't many candidates the Liberals could get better than Kate Holloway. But hey, Helena Guergis ran here in a suicide bid last time, and now she's a federal cabinet minister, so losing here might not be all that fatal to one's political career.
07 09 26 King of Kensington
I got some Kate Holloway literature in my mailbox today. It essentially makes the argument that the Liberals are very progressive and environmentalist and if people want good representation they have to elect an MPP from the governing party. Such arguments do not appeal to voters in ridings like Trinity-Spadina. Rosario should take this by a 2-1 margin.
07 09 26 J.S.W
I was hoping the Liberals would at least make a good run at the NDP in this riding but it appears this won't be the case. The Liberal's Kate Holloway has been all but invisible. From what I'm hearing, her public appearances have been lacklustre and she doesn't appear to be campaigning. True the Liberals seem to have abandoned her but perhaps she wasn't the star candidate she was made out to be. As for the PCs and Greens, they're not a factor. Looks like Mr. Marchese gets a walk on this one.
07 09 24 Mike
I'm a full-time student in the riding, and the only signs I've seen are Marchese's. While signs don't vote, there are *no* Liberal signs up here: the absolute absence indicates they can't find the support, can't find the workers, or aren't campaigning all that hard. (And if they want to win this seat from the NDP, they'll have to campaign that hard.)
07 09 23 Dalton48
Rosario will take this riding again without any difficulties. Kate Holloway, the Liberal candidate, was on Baldwin St. last weekend during a street fair and I've rarely seen anyone more ill-at-ease with campaigning. I don't think she managed to talk to anyone or effectively distribute any of the literature she was carrying, and she didn't seem to have anyone with her. The party seems to have left her to muddle through on her own, which tells you all you need to know about what they think her chances are.
07 09 22
MGK: I have walked all over the riding and I too saw my first Kate Holloway sign (on Denison) today but that lawn also had a Rosario sign. Otherwise, the riding is a sea of orange...the Liberals are practically invisible in Trinity-Spadina!
07 09 20 MGK
Three weeks before the election and I finally saw my first Kate Holloway sign. This suggests that the Liberals aren't putting a lot of effort into this riding -- they don't think Rosario is vulnerable. I can see why. I was out canvassing the other day and his name always evoked a positive response -- much more than just supporting the NDP, people here like their MPP. He's spent 17 years watering the grassroots, and it shows.
07 09 18 Jay B
Old Willowdaler,
If you read my post you would see I didnt predict a PC victory I predicted an NDP one. I just picked the PC logo as I was talking about the PC party and its support in the southern part upper income part of the riding
Nonetheless I apologize for the confusion. You will see I stated Marchese will win. Too bad you only look at the pictures
07 09 17 A.S.
Old Willowdaler: Rosario's PC opponents cracked 20% in both '95 and '99. They still landed in third, but, just letting you know.
07 09 17 Trinity Bellwoods
Marchese will win this in a walk. The Liberals are barely running a campaign, and after watching their candidate on Goldhawk I don't expect that to change.
07 09 16 King of Kensington
I disagree that demographics have really benefitted the Liberals all that much. The NDP in the old city of Toronto has a very different social base of support than it does in other parts of Canada. While it's true that the waterfront condos are Liberal bastions one must remember that the NDP's strongest supporters are WASP/Jewish intelligentsia and bohemian types, not working class ethnic Portuguese and Italian voters. The former are increasing and spreading south and west while the latter are dying off or moving out. So while the Libs do benefit from the condos they are also losing a lot of their core supporters.
Remember that even Olivia's losses in '97 and '04 the NDP actually got a higher percentage of the vote than Dan Heap received. And Marchese's margins of victory increased through the 1990s and with the Liberals down from '03 should get over 50% this time.
07 09 16 Old Willowdaler
I tried not to laugh at Jay's predicition of a PC victory. I honestly cannot remember the last time they got their deposit back! Jay FYI that means you get 15% of the vote. I know Rosario well and knew the previous member Bob Wong. This seat is solidly NDP only when a meltdown occurs is it in danger the last time I think was 1987 when Bob Rae almost lost as well. Failing being hit by a bus between now and the 10th Rosario can expect to safely be returned to Queens Park. Oh and Jay I think the green candidate has a better chance of fluking this seat then the PC's and it will be a dog fight between the Green's and PC's for THIRD! place
07 09 16 MH
The demographic and socio-economic profiles of Trinity-Spadina, particularly at the southern end, are shifting away from the NDP. Still, Mr. Marchese should be able to hold on to T-S, because the new voters are split between the Liberals and the PCs. The latter are too weak in the constituency to have a chance. The Grits will take T-S some day, but probably not until after Mr. Marchese retires.
07 09 16 rexthedog
I can see no reason to expect Marchese's 5000 + plurality to disappear. The Dippers are polling better this time than last, and I actually expect the margin to increase this time, to 6000+
07 09 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
It is at this point in the electionprediction-go-round (very early in the official campaign but the unofficial campaign has been in full swing for some time) that all sorts of silly, optimistic predictions start popping up. Look people, Trinity-Spadina went NDP in 2003 when the Liberals were surging. Now they're down to both the PC and NDP, the NDP are not goign to loose seats, they are going to gain seats. The Liberals know this and they are not going to be wasting time & resources trying to win seats they lost (by a healthy margin we may add) when they were on a high note, when they are too busy trying to hold on to what they already have. There's much bigger and more important fish for them to fry in places like DVW (to name just one of many).
07 09 14 Kerry C
The demographics in this riding have changed drastically in the 6 years with thousands of new residents down by the lake. These new condo owners should be Liberal. Also, as the Portuguese and Italians move north, the young urbanites are moving in. With the Liberals appointee Kate Holloway, their star green Liberal, they now have the best chance to pick up this seat from the NDP. Marchese has been an absentee member.
07 09 13 cbell
Kate Holloway is a stronger candidate than some people think. If the machinery behind the federal liberals in this riding works hard it could make it close. Will depend on a real show of strength from the Liberal machinery and a on how popular Holloway becomes.
07 09 11 King of Kensington
I'm surprised Jay reports that the Liberals are unpopular in the condo belt, given that is in the condos where the Liberals poll best. I wouldn't be surprised if some switch from Liberal to Tory but in the end the effect will be marginal. The question is whether or not the John Tory Tories get their deposit back!
07 09 11 Jay B.
Ok... so Im not predicting a Tory win here, but as an individual who lives in the new condo area of the riding I have a feeling that the Tories will poll well down here giving the seat to the NDP as the Liberals aren?t very popular in this area of the riding. I?ve spoken to quite a few people planning to vote for John Tory and the PC's regardless of the fact the Tories will finish third in Trinity-Spadina. Most of the Tory support is coming from those who voted liberal last time (like myself) which should put Marchese back in Queens Park
07 09 03 helpfulfixer
It should also be noted that this election is being contested during the school year and U of T voters have by and large been hard on this government for its stance on the tuition freeze. Whether or not this is fair is an entirely different issue, but suffice it to say that students voting in protest of McGuinty rather than in protest of Harris will keep this seat orange regardless of condo demographics.
07 08 26 King of Kensington
The Liberal-appointed ex-Green candidate Kate Holloway stands no chance in Trinity-Spadina. First of all, unlike their Dion-led federal counterparts, the McGuinty Liberals do not have any ?green? image whatsoever (quite the contrary). Second, with the Liberals are almost certainly going to lose seats this time around, and they will be putting very few resources into no-hope ridings like Trinity-Spadina. Even when they won by a landslide province-wide in 2003, the Nellie Pedro campaign was almost nonexistent. Provincially, the Libs don't have much of a history in this area.
07 08 13 Some Guy
The Liberal candidate is apparently some kind of environmental superstar. Having defected from the Green Party, she's found a natural home in the Liberal Party. The two parties share two things in common: some pretty thin environmental policies, which may help the environment (if only slightly), but tend to benefit business and punish workers; the parties also share, especially, a desire to get elected at all costs.
That said, its definitely possible that the hollow 'trendy' and 'alternative' environmentalism of the Red Green Show will appeal to voters living in the new condos by the lake. They like the 'trendy.' They like the 'alternative.' They also like the environment, when it remains trendy and alternative and as long as it doesn't interfere in a lifestyle that entails living in totally unsustainable car communities that are cut off from the rest of the world by a monstrosity of an express way.
07 08 09 A.S.
Re ?the Liberals have increased their support in the two previous provincial elections?: well, technically, this seat has *only* existed for two provincial elections, and the Liberals actually did *worse* against Marchese in '99 than in '95--and believe it or not, they even did worse against Marchese in '95 than in '90. (As for '03 vs '99, virtually any rise in Liberal support is a bit of a no-brainer.) True, boundary shifts and increasing condo demos technically favour the Liberals; OTOH it also builds NDP incentive to spread their campaign canvas a little (cf. Olivia Chow's federal victory-at-last). While Marchese's always been more of a dutiful workhorse than a Layton/Chow-esque headline-grabber, it'll take a 1987-scale Liberal landslide to fell his machine.
07 08 03 Shadman
It looks all sewed up for the NDP, but is it?
The Liberals have held this riding before, and are determined to do it again. The boundaries of this riding have changed to time around, bringing the demographics a bit more towards the Liberal?s favour. Marchese has won elections with a solid lead, but the Liberals have increased their support in the two previous provincial elections. Federally, Chow did finally take the riding last election, but it was no landslide. There is likely sufficient Liberal support if the Liberal party wants the riding bad enough ? and they do. A good, younger candidate with the right credentials could take this riding from Marchese, who could be perceived as a tired politician working for a party with some good ideas, but no power to implement them.
And, you know, the belief that this riding is easily an NDP win may be the very thing that robs it from the clutches of Ontario?s third party.
07 06 18 Rural Analyst
Rosario Marchese to hold easily. Having easily survived two weak NDP performances, their support has probably bottomed out and has risen significantly in urban areas lately. This time, he should get an absolute majority as this downtown riding (like most of central Toronto) keeps moving left in general, snaring left-leaning Liberals away. The PC's are nowhere to be found as this riding does not support any kind of Tories, Red or Blue.
07 05 13 King of Kensington
Easy NDP hold. It has the creative class/intelligentsia element that the NDP does very well among in Toronto. And Rosario was not all threatened in 2003 by a very weak Liberal opponent. Despite the hype about Nellie Pedro (even the EP moderators fell for it until the last minute if I recall correctly) she was ran almost no campaign and got clobbered. She may have had a profile in the Portuguese community but they already vote Liberal anyway so she was preaching to the converted. Rosario is an excellent at canvassing and won't be going anywhere.
07 04 03 Nick J Boragina
I live in this riding, and its a pretty solid NDP area. with the party doing better now then before, and with the Liberals sure to lose, not gain seats, I think it's clear the NDP will hold on here
07 03 22 B.O.
This is a very safe NDP seat. Despite an effort by the Liberals in 2003 to win this seat, they did not come close. Marchese will easily win this seat again.

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