Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009


Prediction Changed
9:27 PM 10/02/2009

Constituency Profile

Green Party
Allen, Huguette Marie
BC Refederation Party
Busch, RJ
No Affiliation
Campbell, Gordon
Foster, Eric Bailey
Olsen, Mark Steven
Skoreyko, Dean

(100% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 05 11 Dave in Enderby
So, the Liberal vote is split with the confusion of Gordon Campbell (the independent candidate), a fairly strong BC Conservative to pull the ultra-right vote and a fairly average Liberal candidate.
When Carole James came to the Interior last Friday to tour ridings where they are in contention, they noticeably did not come to Vernon-Monashee.
Hold on tight, we are in for an interesting ride!
09 05 10 Sam Zaharia
Here's another interesting bit: all of us newspaper carriers have been notified that we will be delivering Wednesdays early morning paper in the late afternoon. If this were still a walk for the Liberals, all that would be left at the end of election night would be to fill in the figures and print. One might get the impression that the newspeople think this riding will be Too Close To Call!!!! C'mon, give us a lightning bolt already!!!
09 05 10 Dave in Enderby
I suspect that BC will be in for a surprise in this riding. Huguette Allen will probably have one of the best Green performances in the province - Eric Foster is very vulnerable, Marc Olsen is very much associated with unions as a local CUPE president.
Huguette is getting great references and placement in the Vernon Morning Star. Like in today's paper in the full front page article, she is the first candidate mentioned and takes up 4 paragraphs ending with ?I'd like to win because it would be a third voice in the Legislature that could work with the Liberals or the NDP,? she said.
In the editorial which does not endorse any candidate, ?The Green Party won't form the government - even some of their own candidates admit that - but the party certainly has made enough strides with a green-conscious province - the greenest in Canada - to likely win some seats in Victoria on Tuesday.?
09 05 08 Sam Zaharia
So, seriously, no debate here from Liberal supporters? Frankly, I'm disappointed but not surprised. Huguette was the only candidate to receive major applause at the final forum in our riding. Meanwhile, Eric Foster was all but boo-ed at the previous forum for arguing with the audience when we corrected him on a point on which he had misspoken. Rumor has it that his best chance at being elected may come from the people of Lumby voting for him just to get him to go away! And with a smart and well liked candidate like Huguette sitting at the same table, Mark Olsen undermined his own credibility when he told voters they have only two choices. The only other candidate who isn't digging himself into a hole is Skoreyko. Too bad no one else can see how close this race will be.
09 05 03 Sam Zaharia
This has been a Liberal riding for as long as I can remember, but there has never been a BC Conservative candidate before as far as I know. Consider that people who vote Conservative federally tend to vote Liberal provincially and you can estimate that about a quarter of Fosters support will shift to Skoreyko. That puts Liberal support at about 32% with Conservative support at about 11%. Mark Olsen got 23% support when he ran for Vernon City Council. That leaves 34% for Huguette, who is currently polling at 46% on VernonBlog. I'm still calling it a Green win, but this will be a very close race.
09 04 19 Sam Zaharia
I take it back, it turns out the Conservatives have finally selected a candidate here: Dean Skoreyko. Dean is famous (not really) for becoming so offended by a Kenny vs. Spenny prank, after going out of his way to find it and view it online, that he filed a Human Rights complaint.
09 03 25 Sam Zaharia
An informal poll on VernonBlog shows that, out of 61 votes, 36% favor Huguette Allen with the BC Green Party. Only 8% like the Liberal candidate, Eric Foster. Seems the locals who only just elected him Mayor of Lumby in November might have some hard feelings about the potential cost of a by-election if he wanders away to the Legislature. Who knew people would expect commitment from their elected officials? The only party that might give her a challenge would be the Conservative candidate. Too bad for them they're only running candidates in 9 of 85 ridings. Granted, this is a small poll but this particular blog is very popular locally and is read by a wide cross-section of residents who often go there first for an overview of local news.
09 02 10 TAN
This is another one of those seats where traditionally the only political drama occurs the day local party members select the BC Liberal candidate. The NDP have generally fared somewhat better in Vernon than further down the valley, and Christensen leaves a 10% margin that might shrink further if the NDP seriously challenge for government. That isn't in the cards at present, however.

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