Election Prediction Project

Okanagan-Vernon
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
7:52 AM 08/03/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
2:53 PM 24/02/2005



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
BC Conservative
Colin Black
No Affiliation
Gordon Campbell
BC Liberal
Tom Christensen
NDP
Juliette Marie Cunningham
Green Party
Erin Nelson
Marijuana
Michael Toponce
B.C. Patriot
Tibor Lesley Tusnady

Incumbent:
BC Liberals:
CHRISTENSEN, Hon. Tom
1996 Re-distribution:
Population:55360
Dev. from Quota:17.42%
Area (km2):5554
Pop Density:9.97

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)

56.51%
14.38%
9.02%
13.09%

1996 Result (redistributed):

29.81%
39.19%
21.34%
7.40%
1.36%

Surrounding Ridings:
Columbia River-Revelstoke
Kelowna-Lake Country
Nelson-Creston
Okanagan-Westside
Shuswap
West Kootenay-Boundary
Yale-Lillooet



06 03 05 full name
This riding, where I live for most of the year, will re-elect Tom Christensen by a large margin for three main reasons. First, the NDP does not have a strong party association, or candidate for that matter, in this riding and will not be able to garner the kind of public support and media exposure required for an election win. I'm not even sure if Carole James or the NDP executive has chosen/nominated any candidate for this riding.
Second, this riding, and most of the Okanagan, ideologically leans more to the right; just observe the Conservative Party's domination of this region in the recent federal election. With the more right-leaning ideologies of the provincial Liberal Party (ie: reductions in government bureaucracy, encouragement of business community, cut-backs in social programs, etc...), Tom Christensen will be easily supported.
Third and finally, recent, greatly-needed highway expansions by Swan Lake (on the fringes of the riding) gives the provincial Liberals a positive image. Indeed, in this riding, Mr. Christensen can market his party as one that does not merely spout rhetoric, but rather, brings about substantive changes.
24 02 05 M. Lunn
The Okanagan Valley is generally right-leaning and rarely elects NDP. Although I think the NDP probably would have won this riding a year ago when the liberals bottomed out, their recent gains should allow Tom Christensen to easily be re-elected. The big question is will he keep his job as education minister or become education critic. I would say the chances of him losing his job as MLA is lower than that of losing his job as education minister.
22-Feb-05
This is part of the Interior belt of BC Liberal support, but it will tighten up. The cutbacks will cost them votes, but expect a 10-15% margin of victory for Christensen.


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