Election Prediction Project

West Kootenay-Boundary
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
4:47 PM 22/04/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
4:48 PM 22/04/2005

Constituency Profile

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BC Conservative
Barry Edward Chilton
Katrine Conroy
BC Liberal
Pam Lewin
No Affiliation
Glen David Millar
Green Party
Donald Pharand
The Bloc BC
A.J. van Leur

BC Liberals:
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:-2.49%
Area (km2):10087
Pop Density:4.56

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Kelowna-Lake Country
Penticton-Okanagan Valley

14 04 05 Rosslander
This is a lock for the NDP. Given that people in Castlegar are still angry over losing their hospital, Grand Forks lost its courthouse and the school district has axed half it's schools in the last four years there is no love lost on the BC Liberals. They have done nothing for the West Kootenays; indeed Campbell wanted to make even deeper cuts then what was done, including axing services at the Trail Regional Hospital. This riding is coming back to the NDP in a big way.
10 04 05 Vortigern
Just doing a little math.... Taking the federal riding of Southern Interior, and removing the Oliver/Osoyoos/Princeton area, the NDP candidate would have won by a margin of more than 2000 votes last summer. Given that the BC wing of the party tends to outperform the federal, I have a very hard time seeing any outcome other than an NDP win here.
10 03 05 Nick Boragina
This is clear if you ask me. This riding contains most of the old rossland area, a very "dipperiffic" area, I think the NDP has represented this area for decades. The 15% margin in 96 will be bettered this time around.
04 03 05 TAN
This one's an NDP gimmee. The worst kept secret in BC is that Santori had been planning on leaving before the new year so as to not waste his time on a campaign.
24 02 05 BLJ
Most of the former Rossland-Trail riding, which has been held by the NDP for well over 30 years. With the exception of the 2001 anomoly, will return an NDP member.
23-Feb-05 M. Lunn
This is a traditional NDP riding so I expect them to win this one. Although Sandy Santori resigned for health reasons, I suspect he also stepped down now rather than wait until May 17th since he knew he would lost his seat. Even though the liberals are recovering in the Interior, so I expect them to take many of the swing ridings, they will not win this one.

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