Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009

West Vancouver-Sea to Sky

Prediction Changed
12:42 PM 17/01/2009

Constituency Profile

Buitenhuis, Juliana
McIntyre, Joan
Green Party
Stephenson, Jim

West Vancouver-Garibaldi
(Approx. 99% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 03 30 BG
Wow, another GREAT choice by the BC Conservatives to run a council runner-up! That will surely gain votes...wow...
I don't think people in this riding care enough to vote for anyone but a Liberal, the greens had a good run, but are running a mediocre candidate against a newly-appointed cabinet minister. Safe Liberal hold here.
09 02 23 Predictor
I'm going to have to call this one for the Greens, not fully because i'm supporting them (I will be voting for them) But because of 2 primary factors. 1 is that the conservatives are running a candidate in the region, they ran one last election but this election since they're running Lynne Block ( Council Runner-Up ).They're in a position to garner a good chunk of votes Last Election it looked something like this
Liberal 51.5%
Green 26.5%
NDP 21.0%
Conservative 2.0%
Lets say they take 10% from the Libs then then the NDP takes 5% and the Greens take 5%. Boom! All of a sudden what has happened it looks something like this
Green 31.5%
Liberal 30.5%
NDP 26.0%
Green Picks up the strategic vote so their numbers may be higher.
The only reason why this is marked as a Liberal riding is because they don't really know that a Conservative is running here
I look forward to your feedback
09 01 17 Predictor
North Shore has arguable been the most reliable Liberal bastion in Greater Vancouver. This riding will more likely see a Green upset (a highly unlikely event itself) than an NDP pickup. Easy Liberal hold.

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