Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

New Brunswick Southwest

Prediction Changed
2009-08-26 14:08:00

Constituency Profile


Farris, Jason

Graham, Andrew

Harvey, Janice

Williamson, John

Wilson, Kelly

Hon. Greg Thompson

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • fundy-royal (31/195 Polls)
  • new-brunswick-southwest (135/149 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 02 C.A.B.
    What should be interesting to see this time around is how much of the Tory tally was actually Thompson's personal vote - after all, it was he who nearly held on here in 1993, and thus made the PC comeback in 1997 such a sure thing. And Bill Casey, another 1993 near-survivor, proved in 2008 that his own personal following was greater than anyone could have possibly imagined. And Thompson, for his part, ensured that this was the best Tory riding in the Atlantic in 2004, 2006, and 2008 - now that he's retiring, I don't know if the same will be true again, but I also don't see the Liberals clawing their way out from under 20% and making up a 39-point margin.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    Greg Thompson may not be running again which may cause the Tories to drop slightly, but considering all the neighbouring ridings went Conservative never mind in Saint John it is a largely urban unlike this one which is largely rural. In Frederiction, the Tories won by 2 to 1 margin in the rural polls which are most similiar to this riding while ran even in Fredericton thus why it was a bit more competitive. Either way this is solid Conservative country.
    11 03 28 Tony Ducey
    New candidate for the Tories but still the same result as I see John Williamson keeping this seat blue.
    10 02 13 R.O.
    The collapse of the conservatives, seriously give us a break as there still going strong in New Brunswick and the incumbent government. also depending on what poll you look at there still mid 30's nationwide , recently nanos had them at 35 , angus reid 34 but ekos 31 . so i think realistically there support now is still very close to what they got in 2008 but down a little bit. focusing on this riding obviously the lost of long-time mp Greg Thompson does hurt but the margin the liberals would need to make up here is very large . we also don't know who the new conservative candidate will be here and being a historically tory seat i would imagine they will find a fairly good candidate for the riding. where is the liberals may be wishing they found someone a little more high profile for this riding . either way i'd still say the conservatives have the advantage here although i admit there is alot of unknowns in the riding as most parties are without candidates here. so they have nomination meetings and such to go thru before the race becomes clear but i'd imagine the conservative race be very competitive and some high profile locals go after that nomination.
    10 01 28 mackinnon
    It's a whole new ballgame. This was Greg Thompson's seat and the collapse of the Conservatives and a surging Liberal make this a change coming.
    10 01 18 binriso
    Greg Thompson will not run again but it will make little difference other than possibly a few votes but the CPC should still be around 50% here at least.
    09 08 25 Sean P.F.
    Veterans Affairs Minister Greg Thompson will easily win re-election in this riding. It has been a strong Tory riding for decades.

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