Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011


La prévision a changé
2009-09-03 16:35:00

Profil de circonscription


Grenon, Suzie

Hébert, Steven

Lemay, Marc

Moore, Christine

Rochon, Patrick

Marc Lemay

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • abitibi-baie-james-nunavik (59/224 Polls)
  • temiscamingue (194/194 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 05 01 NJam101
    Just wanted to send a message out to the anglophones who have commented here. This riding is nextdoor to mine (Timmins-James Bay) This is in the Abitibi-Témiscamingue region and not Saguenay! Included is the City of Rouyn-Noranda as well as larger towns of La Sarre and Amos, Ville-Marie and Témiscaming. The western portion of the riding is very agricultural. Rouyn is mining and has the Xstrata smelter. La Sarre and Amos are more or less forestry based towns. It looked like an easy win for BQ Marc Lemay at the beginning. But now NDP Christine Moore does have a chance albeit a small chance. Mining and forestry areas will likely have quite a few people changed from Bloc to NDP. Not sure about the agricultural areas who may just remain Bloc. This region's economy is largely dependent on Northern Ontario. I live in Timmins and know that much of our minerals (concentrate) and raw logs get trucked to this region for processing. People communicate a lot between our regions. We have good relations with our neighbouring Quebeckers in Northeastern Ontario unlike many politicians in Ottawa. The political views of the NDP really aren't much different from the Bloc other than the fact that the NDP isn't obsessed with the sovereignty issue. Now it remains to be seen how many Bloc members in this region will actually switch and vote for Christine Moore of the NDP.
    Ma prévision: victoire bloquiste pour Marc Lemay mais le résultat sera serré avec Christine Moore du NPD.
    11 04 27 Stéphane Gaudet
    De un, ce comté n'est pas dans la région du Saguenay !
    De deux, ce n'est pas Abitibi-Baie James- Nunavik-Eeyou, où se présente le candidat-vedette du NPD Roméo Saganash.
    Marc Lemay mène selon le sondage, loin devant la candidate néo-démocrate. Comme partout au Québec francophone, le NPD chauffe le Bloc, mais je ne crois pas que ce siège sera l'un des gains du NPD, qui se feront plus au sud et dans des comtés urbains ou suburbains, pas ruraux. regardez plutôt en Montérégie, pas en Abitibi.
    Il y aura certainement un fort transfert de voix du Bloc vers le NPD, mais pas de l'ordre des 20% nécessaires à ce que le comté bascule dans le camp orange. Réélection de Marc Lemay le 2 mai.
    11 04 21 binriso
    Bloc lead here 45-21 over the NDP according to a new riding poll, the Conservatives and Liberals may not even get their deposits back..
    11 04 21 JC
    They said that with the new Poll numbers the NDP are doing quite well in the Saguenay region, I expect this to go NDP.
    11 04 20 Bernard von Schulmann
    A riding level poll has come out indicating this is safely Bloc
    Details are here:
    11 04 18
    The NDP are surging in Que drawing soft nationalist support from the Bloc
    11 04 04 Marco Ricci
    NDP have fallen behind Liberals in latest Quebec poll (eg. Leger) and appear to be losing some ground in Quebec. I think they can pick up some support here since the BQ MP said some controversial things about the NDP candidate in the media, but the BQ probably still has the edge.
    11 03 28 M.Lunn
    None of the parties have come even close in the past three elections so Bloc hold.
    09 09 22 binriso
    Si le parti lib?ral gagne 8-12 si?ges nouvelles, c'est probablement pas ici mais ils ont gagn? cette circonscription dans un election partielle en 2003 par 4000 voix. Alors c'est peut-?tre un circonscription que les liberaux peuvent gagner si ils gagnent 25-30 dans la province mais c'est certainment Bloc pour maintenant.
    If the Liberals win 25-30 or so seats in the province or 8-12 new ones, this could be one of them. It was won by 4000 votes in a byelection in 2003. That said the Bloc should still win this seat as it stands now.
    09 09 03 Paul Tremblay
    Sounds like someone from either Le Devoir or the Liberal Party doesn't know the difference between Abitibi--Témiscamingue and Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou... I don't believe for a second that the Liberals can win or even hope to win this riding. Especially considering the fact that the incumbent Bloc MP is running again.
    09 09 02 JF Breton
    Selon «Le Devoir», les Libéraux projettent de remporter 8 circonscriptions additionnelles au Québec. Si le vent est vraiment favorable, ce pourrait être 12 circonscriptions, dont Abitibi-Témiscamingue. C'est encore très hypothétique. Je préfère pour l'instant tabler sur une victoire du Bloc.
    09 09 01 Paul Tremblay
    This riding has voted for the Bloc in every general election since 1993. There is no reason whatsoever at this point to believe that voters will suddenly change their behaviour. Easy Bloc win.

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