Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011


La prévision a changé
2011-05-01 09:42:00

Profil de circonscription


Cormier, Simon

Day, Anne-Marie

Gaudreault, Martine

Grenier, Félix

Petit, Daniel

Verret, Simon

Daniel Petit

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • charlesbourg-jacques-cartier (188/219 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 05 01 Marco Ricci
    'Project Democracy' has the BQ & NDP tied for this riding, with the Conservatives 3rd:
    BQ: 32.2
    NDP: 32.2
    CON: 23.7
    LIB: 11.9
    11 04 30 joséphine
    The conservative Daniel Petit won the last two elections with 41% of the vote. The conservative have the information that their voters are still almost 50% of the people called in the riding. I don't think that the NDP can get more then the conservative unless all the BQ and liberals would vote NDP. And right wing liberals might be tempted to vote conservative while the BQ will try very hard to keep its voters. So I'm almost sure that Daniel Petit will get almost 50 % of the vote this time and win again.
    11 04 29 Paul Tremblay
    Point of information : the 2 percent margin of error is for the total of all the polls done by CROP in Quebec City when taken together. The margin of error for every one of these single-riding polls is actually 5 percent.
    The NDP has no organization, it is not obvious at all that their supporters will actually vote, and the CPC vote tends to be underestimated in polls especially in the Quebec City area. While a few Bloc supporters could move to the NDP to block the CPC, I believe that the remaining Bloc voters are hardcore separatists and therefore unlikely to change their vote.
    I therefore still expect a Conservative win, the results will be close but the margin will be just strong enough to avoid a recount.
    11 04 29 DL
    CROP poll has Anne Marie Day of the NDP with a 4 point lead over the Tory incumbent!
    11 04 29 Stéphane Gaudet
    Le sondage CROP donne dans cette circonscription 35% au NPD, 31% au PCC et le Bloc à 22%. La marge d'erreur serait de 2%, alors l'avance du NPD est significative quoique mince. Je pense que ce comté votera comme son voisin Beauport-Limoilou et passera du bleu foncé à l'orange.
    11 04 20 burlivespipe
    Too early to call imo. The Bloc hasn't exactly been bleeding support in the region, while the ndp's role in the City' area remains unknown, but likely limited. How much have the conservatives been hurt by Harper's recent anti-separatist declaration -- will it light a vigorous flame with the Bloc, or is there some shifting among federalists with Ignatieff expected to blitz the region during the last week? I wouldn't ignore a possible upset.
    11 04 19 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Another Quebec CPC call that we can not get behind just yet. Upon retrospect, it makes sense that the BQ did worse here in '08 than in '06, they did not have Richard Marceau who obviously was personally popular. When he didn't run again in '08 the CPC didn't lose as much support as they did in other QC ridings (Louis Hebert for instance). Now the CPC are down a fair chunk compared to '08 but so is the BQ (a much smaller chunk). Liberals and NDP are up and this does put some question into a CPC prediction. Just not certain about this one.
    11 04 07 FP
    With Conservatives ridiculous show (Nordiques Shirts) on Coliseum and Harper's stance on it, it is clear that voting on the right side argument will no longer apply to this riding. People want their Nordiques, as to better hate Montreal...
    So, the overall Montreal-CBC-Plateau-hating strategy is backfiring at hands of conservatives, as their involvement in Quebec city is minimal, at best. No airport runway will save this riding from the Separatists. Shift to BQ.
    11 04 02 M.Lunn
    Based on the Conservatives difficulties in Quebec City, they are in grave danger of losing this. They did win by 12 points which in Ontario would be enough of a cushion that they would probably be okay, but in Quebec, large swings between parties are a lot more common. Still too close to call, but the Tories will be in for one heck of a fight to hold this one.
    11 03 31 Olivier Denis
    Many thinks that the conservatives will be out of the area of Quebec City because of the rejection by the conservatives to pay for the new arena in Quebec City but if we take a look on how the project and the financing of the project is received in Quebec City with the discutions the mayor have with the population, the conservatives maybe right to not give a dime on this project. Daniel Petit is well established in his reading and I don't think he will be out at this election. the others candidates are not well known in the riding and the Bloc have to beat a loss by 5000 votes the last time. So, Petit will be back as the representant of Charlesbourg-Haute-St-Charles
    11 03 30 Paul Tremblay
    I recognize that the Conservative support in Quebec City generally has dropped to some extent according to regional opinion polls. This being said, this drop is not the meltdown that some people in the media have tried to portray, and Conservative support (and also ADQ support on the provincial level) has often been underestimated by similar polls in the past.
    The Conservatives could lose some seats in Quebec City but this riding is not one of them.
    The race will be closer this time but Petit will retain his seat.
    11 03 28 Jean
    This one is difficult to predict. It is a riding the Conservatives can hope to keep. In 2008, the Conservative Petit won comfortably enough with 41%, to 29% to the Bloc. The latest Segma poll (21-24 March 2011) in this particular riding places the Bloc ahead at 43%, and the Conservative Petit behind at 30% (with the riding poll having a large margin of error of 10%). Is that attributable to a polling error or have things actually changed substantially? Probably some of both. My guess, at this time, would be that the Bloc and the Conservative may be close to a tie, both somewhere around the 32% to 36% range. This could be a close contest.
    11 03 10 Marco Ricci
    A new Léger poll released today shows the Conservatives have apparently fallen way behind the BQ in the Quebec City region because of the arena controversy:
    11 03 06 Marco Ricci
    In a January 2011 Segma poll projection, the Cons came out ahead here 36% to 29%.
    But since that time there has been controversy over the Federal decision not to fund the new Quebec City arena, and the Mayor has been on all the radio and t.v. shows predicting the Conservatives will regret it. Will this cause the Cons to drop in this riding? We'll need newer numbers before knowing for sure.
    09 12 11 R.O.
    The fact that during a tough election in quebec for the conservatives that Daniel Petit grew his lead over the bloc quebecois holds well for his chances here. The bloc didn't seem to do near as well here without a well known mp running for them and there new candidate Felix Grenier may not do much better either . and although the bloc lead in the polls in quebec that lead doesn't always or exactly exist in the Quebec City ridings as the conservatives do alot better in this part of the province.
    Le fait que pendant une election dure a Quebec pour les conservateurs qui Daniel Petit a grandi son avance sur les prises de Quebecois de bloc bien pour ses hasards ici. Le bloc n'a pas semble faire pres aussi ici sans un etre candidat a de mp renomme les et le la nouveau candidat Felix Grenier peut n'ameliore pas beaucoup ou. et bien que l'avance de bloc dans les sondages a Quebec que l'avance ne fait pas toujours ou existe exactement dans la ville de quebec debarrasse comme les conservateurs reussissent alot mieux dans cette partie de la province.
    09 09 10 JFBreton
    Les conservateurs ont utilis? cet ?t? les ressources d'une firme priv?e de Toronto, Responsive Marketing Group. Selon leur analyse, seuls Maxime Bernier (Beauce), Jos?e Verner (Louis-Saint-Laurent), Christian Paradis (M?gantic-l'?rable) et Jean-Pierre Blackburn (Jonqui?re-Alma) pourraient dormir tranquilles. Le si?ge des six autres ?lus est en danger s'il y a des ?lections cet automne (Lawrence Cannon, Sylvie Boucher, Denis Lebel, Steven Blaney et Daniel Petit). L'analyse conclut ?galement que si les intentions de vote remontent l?g?rement, le si?ge de Jacque Gourde (Lotbini?re-Chute-de-la-Chaudi?re) serait sauv?.[source: Le Devoir, 10 septembre 2009] Ce qui me fait dire que le Bloc a des bonnes chances de reprendre Charlesbourg-Haute-St-Charles, surtout qu'il a d?cid? de cibler la r?gion de Qu?bec.
    09 09 03 Paul Tremblay
    The fact that Daniel Petit is running again means that this is a clear two-way race. A federalist incumbent always has a huge advantage in such races.
    Petit did make some controversial comments from time to time but I would be very surprised if those voters who were offended by those comments actually voted for him in past elections. In that sense these controversies are pretty much irrelevant.
    This being said, the lawsuits may prove to be more a problem for Petit but I don't believe it will be enough of a problem to make him lose the election.
    I predict a Conservative win by 1,500 votes or so (Petit won by 6,000 votes in 2008).
    09 09 02 JF Breton
    Petit est régulièrement dans l'eau chaude, qu'il s'agisse de déclarations malheureuses ou de poursuites. Je ne donne pas les Conservateurs gagnants ici, pas plus que le Bloc pour l'instant. Il faudra attendre la campagne pour se faire une idée plus claire. TCTC!
    09 08 27 wyatt
    Petit's lead grew to nearly 6,000 in '08. Unless the Libs or BQ really surge, he'll hold here, and likely increase his total again.

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