11 04 26	Marco Ricci 72.138.2.247
Quebec journalist Elizabeth Thompson said earlier this month that the Liberals might have some support in this area, although I think they need to go up a few points in the polls before they can be in contention here yet.
	11 04 26	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 65.92.25.58
Going to make a bold Liberal prediction. The BQ are sinking faster than the Titanic. The CPC are floundering at 14% in Quebec and the NDP are enjoying a surge. Only the Liberals are holding steady. Add the lack of a BQ incumbent and things don't look good for Duceppe and co. We say Liberals, NDP, BQ, CPC (we won't wager any percentages).
	11 04 25	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 70.54.152.240
With the NDP taking support from the BQ and without any incumbent advantage the BQ could be in real danger of losing this riding.
	11 04 20	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 174.89.194.251
Liberals are doing okay in Quebec...maybe...just maybe this one might be closer than we realize. No incumbent, makes this a wildcard...
	11 04 06	Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina 198.96.35.248
The Liberals have held this before, and a recent poll shows the Bloc and Liberals are neck and neck in the province with the Bloc down to 28%. It might just be a one off poll, that ‘20th time’ (out of 20), or it might signify some Bloc weakness. If the latter, this riding may become vulnerable.
	11 03 28	M.Lunn 174.116.190.108
With the right candidate and leader, either the Liberals or Tories could potentially win this, but for now, neither party has either so Bloc wins by default.
	10 01 24	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 174.89.192.10
We agree with Marco Ricci's comments below. This isn't a hardcore seperatist region; having travelled here, would even argue that it is reasonably federalist in nature (was shocked to see how many Canadian flags were flown over private homes!). And it is vote splitting that is allowing a BQ win. It will allow it to happen again, though we're going to argue that the Liberals will come second due to the spillover effect from Nancy Charest's campaign next door. One that they should eye for future gains, or if they start polling very well in Quebec, for a current bonus pick up. CPC should also target this if they are begining to look good in Quebec; for now there are much better targets for them.
	09 09 14	Marco Ricci 72.138.2.68
This seat may end up leaning BQ in the next election, but it is not guaranteed to be safe. It appears that Raynald Blais has won this seat in the last 2 elections because of vote-splitting between the Conservatives and Liberals. In 2008, he only won this riding with about 40% of the vote with 26% going to the Liberals and 22% going to the Conservatives. Now that the Liberals have moved back into 2nd place in this riding, if they can take some of the Conservative support (and perhaps a little of the BQ), they can begin to challenge for this seat. If Nancy Charest runs a strong campaign again in the other Gaspesie seat, there could also be a spillover effect here.
	09 09 02	JF Breton 24.203.249.32
Circonscription pas particulièrement forte pour le Bloc, que 4700 voix de majorité aux dernières élections. Ceci dit, elle ne semble pas ciblée par les Libéraux, cer derniers préférant mettre leurs billes dans Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia avec Nancy Charest. La division du vote avantagera le Bloc, surtout si le candidat conservateur est assez fort.
	11 04 28	Stéphane Gaudet 66.130.172.171
http://www.lavantage.qc.ca/elections-federales-2011/27-04-2011-elections-du-02-mai-tout-un-revirement-en-faveur-de-nancy-charest Ce vieux sondage (6-13 avril) donne une confortable avance au député bloquiste. Un peu isolée du reste du Québec, la Gaspésie a tendance à résister aux vagues qui agitent le reste de la province. Comme en Abitibi, il n'y a pas eu de vague adéquiste ici. Je ne crois pas que la vague orange se rende jusqu'ici, je crois plutôt que l'Est du Québec (Côte-Nord, Gaspésie, Bas St-Laurent) restera fidèle aux grands partis, BQ et PCC. Victoire bloquiste ici, un des sièges que le Bloc réussira à préserver de la vague NPD. On n'est pas à Montréal ou en Outaouais ici.