| ||11 04 30
|Sorry Paul, but I'm not buying it. Maybe your points Bloc strength are valid in places like Hochelaga and Rosemont (though not Gatineau...I know first hand that Gatineau has some militant separatists, but they are the minority, and, like Tory sludge elsewhere in Canada, won because of vote splitting) but to say that the NDP's best Quebec polls were conducted using questionable methodologies is complete and utter tripe.|
Look at the polls on this list. Many of the Bloc's WORST numbers are on phone polls rather than on IVR or Internet. Maybe the Tories will hold on to Pontiac, but the orange wave will easily take Hull and Gatineau.
| ||11 04 27
|Thanks for your answer paul, the first part of which i read in the Vaudreuil Soulanges section. that said, I see a bubble rather than a wave too. NDP supporters get really angry when i compare it to the British LibDem situation. and sgoodd call, reminding me of when my hopes were dashed in 1997 as the PC bubble burst prior to election day...|
that said, having looked over the numbers, the histories and situations on the ground as i understand them, I say the NDP wins between 5 and 18 seats in Quebec. No more. 1) they lack boots on the ground. They werre able to subvert the Bloc organization in Outremont, and have had limited success doing likewise in adjacent Plateau and east end ridings, in most ridings the Bloc machine has remained loyal.
2) while we laugh at Fat Jack, bringing parizeau along is a good way to shore up the bas e to actually get to the polls and vote. It will help save some of the furniture.
3) I still think that Libs and Tories will benefit in some ridings, and may not only hold what they have but make small gains.
4) At the end of the day, The worst the bloc can do is about 30 seats, the Libs can count on 16, and the Tories 11-12 (incl. Arthur) this leaves 17-18 forb the NDP at MOST, and i don't believe they'll get all of them, let alone most.
| ||11 04 26
|I predicted a Bloc win in Gatineau back in September 2009 and as much as this may surprise some people, I still stand by that prediction.|
- I recognize that the NDP is way up in many polls in Quebec. This being said, most of the polls which are the most favourable to the NDP have been done using questionable methodology (online polls, IVR polls, rolling polls, polls that ask people to give their top two preferences, etc.) and because of that there is reason to believe that the real amount of NDP support is nowhere close to what some opinion polls currently claim.
- It is quite revealing that most single-riding polls in Quebec do not give the NDP as winning or even as being close to win (except for Outremont), and while experience shows that one can't make accurate predictions on the basis of single-riding polls, paradoxically experience also shows that when you average these polls, they tend to reflect more accurately what is happening on a province-wide level (the 2008 Quebec election being a case in point); in this case it would mean that NDP support in Quebec is up compared to 2008, but nowhere near what some province-wide polls suggest.
- Another problem for the NDP is that a large portion of their popularity comes from groups who don't vote anyway, and the least that can be said is that non-voters aren't exactly useful to win any election.
- When a party rises unexpectedly in polls during a campaign, like the NDP this year in Quebec, it may be because of a ‘wave’ due to fundamental factors which for some reason had not been widely recognized before, or it may be because a ‘bubble’ forms during the campaign. Waves (like the ADQ in 2007) last until polling day... but bubbles (like the PC's in 1997 in Quebec, may I remind people that some polls even showed them in first place in Quebec a week or so before the 1997 vote... or like the Lib Dems a year ago in the U.K....) tend to burst by voting day. The NDP rise looks more like a bubble than a wave to me, and if I'm correct this will mean a big deception for the NDP generally in Quebec on May 2nd.
- One factor specific to the riding of Gatineau that many people have overlooked is that a very large number of Bloc supporters already switched their vote to the NDP in 2008 as they were under the (incorrect) impression that they needed to vote NDP in order to avoid a Liberal win. Therefore, no matter how well the NDP will do this year in Quebec, it will be much harder for the NDP to gain votes at the Bloc's expense in Gatineau specifically, as they already got these soft Bloc votes.
- The race in Gatineau is not seen as a clear two-way race as the Liberal candidate remains a strong contender, and as a result Boivin can't count on Liberal and/or Conservative supporters to massively switch their votes to her in order to block the Bloc, as she is not the only serious federalist option; and even if she was seen as the only serious federalist alternative, it is harder to convince federalist voters to vote NDP as the average federalist voter in Quebec tends to be more conservative compared to the provincial average.
- One X-factor : Had Françoise Boivin said clearly last week that she is not a lesbian, then her explanation regarding her hiring of Ms. Strolenberg would have had some credibility, but she did not say anything like that, and it seems that the only reasonable conclusion (even though it could conceivably be unfair to her) is that Boivin is a lesbian who desperately tries to keep her orientation secret, at least in part to cover up something that would rightly be seen as unethical had she admitted to being a lesbian. By itself being homosexual is usually not a problem for a candidate; however being unethical is a problem; and when you add homosexuality to another potentially problematic situation, if what happened to the Parti Québécois in the 2007 provincial election is any indication (André Boisclair had admitted to using cocaine when he was a cabinet minister), it may become a real problem.
- Add all these factors and the end result, in my humble opinion, is that the NDP will be very lucky if their province-wide vote in Quebec on May 2nd is significantly above 20 percent, and this would still not translate into a win in Gatineau as they already had in 2008 the increase in votes that they will get elsewhere in Quebec this year. I therefore expect the Bloc to keep this riding due to vote-splitting among federalists.
| ||11 04 21
|There is no sense beating the dead horse, but echoing what most others have said, this is an easy pickup for the NDP given their momentum upwards of the past week and a half, and the Liberals downward trend since the writ fell.|
| ||11 04 21
|Time to call this one for the NDP.|
Bovin had a good chance when the NDP was at 15% in Quebec, she did well in 2008 when the NDP got 12%. Now, with the NDP in the high 20s-low 30s, this one is a lock for the dippers.
| ||11 04 21
|With the NDP surging into first place in Quebec - Gatineau is in the bag. On top of that the Liberals' homophobic smear campaign against Boivin has totally backfired and created a wave of sympathy for her as the victim of dirty mud slinging. She will win and it won't be close!|
| ||11 04 21
|Since Francoise Boivin's impressive 2nd place finish in 2008, I strongly suspected after the last election that the NDP would target this riding and win it. Fast forward nearly 3 years, (after the close 3 way race last time)there are several factors that will hurt the Liberals and the Bloc incumbent here and that is the poll numbers which show the two parties trending downwards from 2008. Of course, now with a new CROP poll set to be released later today which will show the NDP overtaking the Bloc in Quebec tells me that only is this a NDP pickup but this should be moved from too close to call to an NDP victory. With 11 days to go, Im very comfortable making this prediction. I must say I'm impressed and respect the insight of Dr.Bear/Ape(lol my apologies if I got that wrong)|
| ||11 04 20
|Francoise Boivin finds herself in a scandal today with a story in Le Devoir alleging that she broke the ethical rules for MP's by hiring her common-law partner. |
Le Devoir stands by their story and says they have verification from several sources. Boivin denies the accusation, but this could cost her some support in the riding as she enters the final stretch of the campaign.
| ||11 04 20
||Dr Bear & Prof Ape|
|Going to join the choir that's calling this for the NDP. If Layton can keep his Quebec numbers up they'll finally take Gatineau.|
| ||11 04 19
|The polls consistently have the NDP way up in Quebec. I've looked at all of the ridings in the province and if there's one seat they're likely to pick up (outside of keeping Outremont), it's this one. I'm calling this one for the NDP.|
| ||11 04 18
|Deux nouveaux sondages ce matin concernant les intentions de vote au Québec. Dans les deux cas, forte progression du NPD et stagnation du vote libéral et bloquiste. Jusqu'à maintenant, j'hésitais fortement à donner le NPD gagnant dans Gatineau, malgré les efforts de Boivin. À partir de maintenant, ça me paraît très possible. Sans doute une lutte serrée, mais victoire du NPD.|
| ||11 04 18
|The Liberals will re-capture this riding, the NDP have a little bump in support in Quebec, it's highly unlikely to translate into seats, there are too many civil servants who didn't vote last time but certainly will this time. I won't dispute that it won't be close but i think Steve Mackinnon will be triumphant in the end.|
| ||11 04 18
|Le nouveau Léger marketing indique un tassement du vote Bloc et une montée fulgurante du NPD’ Je ne vois pas comment le NPD pourrait perdre ce comté, si l atendance se maitient|
| ||11 04 18
|The NDP are surging in Que drawing soft nationalist support..this seat is now safe for the NDP|
| ||11 04 18
|No way the NDP will lose here. Angus-Reid has NDP 26 - Lib 17 and Leger has NDP 24 - Lib 20. I'll say it again that this is a guaranteed pick up. It's time for the NDP to take down the Big Red Circus Tent.|
| ||11 04 17
|Democratic Space is calling for this riding to go NDP with about 30-35% of the votes, several percentage points ahead of the Liberals. Biggest chance for NDP pickup in La Belle Province!|
| ||11 04 16
|No Liberal will be voting for Boivin this time around. Last time was sympathy, this time the NDP is out on their own. The potential increase in Quebec will not help given the return of the Liberal vote to the Liberal candidate which means only Liberals can defeat BQ in this riding which could very well happen given the small margin of victory in 2008 and an apparent loss of steam for BQ in Quebec.|
| ||11 04 16
|WIth Jack Layton's popularity in Quebec and continued high polling numbers for the NDP, this is the #1 target in Quebec. The NDP is cutting into Bloc support, while Francoise Boivin is a strong candidate who can appeal to federalist Liberal voters as well.|
| ||11 04 15
|This could well be another NDP seat. The Liberal candidate is from New Brunswick and not that well known here. Yes, he may have resided here for a time but he worked as a Liberal organizer in NB and later in Ottawa. The NDP have a star and many workers so it could be one of the shockers of the night. I think the Liberals see it as safe but it may well not be.|
| ||11 04 14
|Someone below mentioned the Anglophone vote might consider going NDP. I'm not sure if many Anglophones will vote for the NDP now that Jack Layton has admitted in the debates that he supports increasing Bill 101 and putting in more French language laws. This may also turn off some Federalist voters from the NDP, as well as racial minorities in Quebec.|
| ||11 04 14
|It's gonna be a though one but based on:|
- Layton scored big in both debates;
- the NDP is trending up in Quebec (around 18-21 % in the most recent polls);
- François Boivin is a strong and well known candidate who finished 2nd in 2008;
Boivin and the NDP should win this one by +/- 1,000 votes margin.
| ||11 05 13
|In front of the Preservation Centre Library and Archives Canada Mr. Layton came to meet his candidate Françoise Boivin (Gatineau), having gone door to door in the Riviera neighborhood. He used the occasion to announce that a NDP government would do everything in its power to pass legislation in the Commons so that would ban possession of handguns. It would, he said, a way to limit the damage caused by street gangs|
Mr. Layton is probably the only leader to know were is Riviera in Gatineau.
| ||11 04 12
|The NDP are now in second place in Que..at 24% and this riding will flip with the Bloc losing support.|
| ||11 04 12
||Nick J Boragina|
|I'm changing my projection here in Gatineau. The NDP took 14% of the vote across Quebec in the 1988 election. They've been polling at 15% and above this time. Even if their Candidate is a bit tired (running and losing etc) the vote for the Party and not the Candidate is enough to push this riding into the NDP column.|
| ||11 04 11
|Il faut considérer la faiblesse extrême des libéraux au Québec comme facteur décisif pour cette élection. Leur appui s’est effrité de 50% en moins de 10 ans… Résultats des libéraux- en 2000 : 51%, 2004 : 41%, 2006 : 31%, 2008 : 25%. Si la tendance se maintient, j’estime un 20% maximum pour ce comté cette fois.|
Sous Dion – très impopulaire – ils ont présenté Simard, un candidat local, et n’ont récolté que 25% des voix. Ignatieff est encore plus impopulaire que Dion, et les libéraux présentent MacKinnon, un candidat anglophone du Nouveau-Brunswick qui n’a pas vécu longtemps dans la région, qui n’est pas connu et qui ne semble pas bien maitriser le français.
Un seul petit mouvement d’appui additionnel d’anciens libéraux vers le NPD pour appuyer l’ancienne députée libérale Boivin suffirait à une victoire néo-démocrate dans Gatineau.
| ||11 04 11
|Le NPD semble investir beaucoup de ressources en Outaouais, en termes de personnel et de matériel. Les candidates Boivin et Turmel semblent se renforcer mutuellement. Boivin sera sans doute aidée par la candidature de Nycole Turmel dans Hull-Aylmer. Je prédis une victoire NPD dans Gatineau par une mince marge.|
| ||11 04 11
|Le résultat des Conservateurs dans Gatineau en 2008 avec un candidat vedette fut décevant - 17% pour l’homme d’affaires et conseiller municipal Denis Tassé. Le secteur où Tassé a performé se trouve dans les environs de son épicerie à Touraine, un secteur habituellement très rouge. Ce secteur pourrait se rallier à l’ancienne libérale Boivin et lui permettre de se glisser avec 2-3% d’avance.|
| ||11 04 08
|The Anglophone vote might be a decisive factor in this election. They are a sizable minority in the riding but in such close elections they can shift the balance. The Anglophones in the riding are really uncomfortable having a Bloc MP representing them – just for starters his website is only in French. Last time there was a federalist split between three ‘Liberals’ however this time around expect the Anglophones to rally behind Boivin. Strong NDP win in this riding.|
| ||11 04 08
|Pour un début de campagne, MacKinnon semble super bien organisé. Dion et Coderre sont déjà passés dans le comté. Paul Martin la semaine prochaine. Les libéraux y mettent le paquet. Et MacKinnon parle d'un pont. C'est toujours gagnant à Gatineau. Et le sentiment anti-conservateur est fort cette année. Donc, avantage Libéral.|
| ||11 04 08
|PLC reprend cette circonscription dans une lutte a trois. Le vote BQ stagne et même perd des plumes dans ce comte. Le NPD aussi. Les électeurs sont essouflés de la chicane entre Nadeau et Boivin. Depuis le début de la campagne ont entend rien que parler de MacKinnon dans les medias. Si Ignattief a une bonne performance au débat, PLC aura plus de 20,000 votes. Ceci sera bien suffisant pour la victoire de MacKinnon.|
| ||11 04 08
|When a few people were picking Maxime Bernier to take Beauce in 2006, many guffawed, as the Tories hand finished distant 3rd in 2004. Turns out those who chose Bernier based on his heritage and on a deeper knowledge of the region's political culture were proven right in dramatic fashion. Although the riding was safely in the Liberal column 5 years ago, it's now hard to imagine it as anything but Bernier and Tory.|
In the 1990s and early 2000s, the NDP was having a hard time to outpoll the Christian Heritage Party or the Natural Law Party in much of Quebec. Obviously, the party's fortunes have improved dramatically in Quebec. Polls taken in recent days have the party as high as 24%, good for second place behind the BQ's 34$, PROVINCE-WIDE. Other polls have the NDP as the second choice of a strong plurality of BQ voters, with ‘bone’ placing a healthy second, and the Liberals, Tories, and Greens eking it out for 3rd place. Separatist sentiment is not necessarily that strong in Quebec, as less than 1/3 of the population favours outright independence and only about a quarter see it as being possible. That's a lot of soft-nationalist vote that could easily go to the NDP, especially with Layton enjoying spectacular personals in Quebec right now.
If this kind of momentum continues, not only is Gatineau an NDP lock (making Boivin the left's Bernier), but some very unexpected places could come into play. I mean, if the NDP was able to win in places like BARRIE (one of the most conservative urban centres in all of Canada) in the 1990 Ontario election, some pretty remarkable things could happen if things continue to develop the way they are in Quebec
| ||11 04 07
|Latest poll by Angus Reid has the NDP at 24% in Quebec... up from 20% in their previous poll.|
The NDP won 12% in 2008 in Quebec. Polling at 24%, in second place behind the Bloc at 34%, this will be an NDP win.
And at 24%, Mulcair and Boivin won't be the only two NDP MP's heading to Ottawa from Quebec.
| ||11 04 07
|The NDP are surging in Quebec according to recent polling, at 18-21% in all of the recent polls and have actually moved into 2nd place in the province in some of them. While their votes will be mostly spread throughout the province, there are a couple ridings like this one where 18-21% means they will win. The BQ are actually polling below 2008 levels as well and that does not bode well for their candidate here. The Liberals could also win here but an NDP win seems far more likely.|
| ||11 04 06
|Scénario intéressant dans un ancien château-fort libéral. Richard Nadeau du Bloc a été réélu de justesse en 2008 avec le plus faible résultat de l’histoire canadienne (29%) avec un taux de participation de 50% dans le comté de Gatineau. Le fait que cette élection a été déclenchée par l’opposition plutôt que le gouvernement va brouiller les cartes et le résultat est difficile à prévoir. Toutefois, Boivin peut compter sur un certain « facteur Gatineau » car elle est la seule personne native de la région – Nadeau est Franco-Ontarien mais habite Gatineau depuis longtemps; par contre McKinnon est du Nouveau-Brunswick et Gearey semble être de la Nouvelle-Écosse. La présence médiatique de Boivin à la télévision et à la radio va beaucoup l’aider. Une possible victoire raisonnable pour le NPD à Gatineau.|
| ||11 04 05
||Dr Bear & Prof Ape|
|@ Nick - Given the number of civil servants who live in this riding, it's less likely that the vote would swing CPC rather than Liberal.|
| ||11 04 05
|Marco, they had done a similar poll 2 weeks ahead of the election in 2008 placing Boivin 4th, and she ended up in second place and nearly took the seat. The Bloc remains strong in Québec but I expect Boivin’s exposure on local and provincial TV since last election to bolster her numbers with the swing voters that would allow her a win in the low 30’s mid 30’s... Given that Ignatieff is even more unpopular than Dion, some old time Liberals might go with Boivin – just a shift of 2-3% might be enough for her. Close NDP win.|
| ||11 04 04
|New Quebec polls (eg. Leger) show the NDP dropping behind the Liberals in support. The NDP may still have a shot here, but their campaign yesterday was upstaged by Nycole Turmel, the Hull-Aylmer candidate, facing heat in the media after it was revealed that she supported the PQ in the past. This could also hurt Boivin.|
| ||11 04 03
|Boivin's chance was last time. The NDP is still doing well in Quebec but not well enough to win.|
| ||11 04 02
|A possible three way race here with the Bloc, Liberals, and NDP all having a legitimate shot. Having a large civil servant population, this is by nature a federalist riding and only went Bloc in 2006 due to adscam. The NDP however are running former Liberal MP Francois Boivin who had a strong showing last time around. With the NDP doing well in Quebec, I wouldn't rule them out, although still early to say. The Tories will probably get around 15% thus they may play kingmaker but have no chance at actually winning or even coming in the top three.|
| ||11 04 01
|The NDP ‘flirtation’ with Quebec isn't over. Recent poll actually had the NDP at 20% in Quebec... the top federal party behind the BLOC. It is much stronger in Quebec than in 2008 with the Liberals further behind. This will be an NDP win.|
| ||11 04 01
||Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina|
|Bear & Ape - The Tories have been trying to win here for some time, there is no guarantee that voters would go Liberal as opposed to Tory.|
| ||11 04 01
||Dr Bear & Prof Ape|
|@Tony Ducey: If the NDP/Quebec flirtation is over then this should go Liberal. The NDP took Liberal support in Gatineau, especially with the former liberal MP as their candidate. No, any end to NDP flirtations in Quebec would result in Liberal supporters returning back to the old party. Th is not a seperatist riding and they only won due to federalist vote splitting.|
| ||11 03 29
|I had the NDP winning here in 2008. 3 years later in 2011 and with the NDP's flirtation with Quebec over I have the riding staying with the Bloc.|
| ||11 03 25
|Since I last posted, a Segma poll has been released for this riding. At the moment, it appears that the Bloc has a clear lead here with 37% of the vote. The Liberals come in at 22%, followed by the Conservatives at 19% and the NDP at 15%.|
If this poll is accurate, it appears that the federalist vote is divided here between several parties. I will predict that this riding is leaning towards the Bloc, unless the Liberals catch up during the election.
| ||11 03 24
|Benoit mentions that McKinnon is well-known in Gatineau, but is he known to voters, or more to political insiders? That is the question. And I don't know whether it will be relevant or not, but some people may find it unusual that an Anglophone is running in a predominantly Francophone riding. It seems to be at odds with past candidate history, but will it matter? Boivin has the advantage of having run before, both as a Liberal and as an NDPer, but the question is whether she can gain more support or whether she has hit a ceiling. The NDP appears to be polling better in Quebec than last time, while the Liberals appear to be down. As the election starts though, polls could change and we will have to wait a few weeks to see where they go in Quebec. As for Nadeau, he had the lowest vote percentage of any candidate in the country in the last election (only 28% of the vote) so he is obviously a vulnerable MP, to say the least! He clearly is only winning this riding by vote-splitting, and he will have to hope that the BQ support remains solid. This riding will need to be re-evaluated mid-campaign to see how it is leaning.|
| ||11 03 22
|Pour avoir vécu dans Gatineau au cours des dernières années, il me semble que cette circonscription sera encore une fois une des luttes les plus serrées au Canada, entre le NPD, les Libéraux et le Bloc.|
Richard Nadeau du Bloc n’a pas un grand profil, et Gatineau, une circonscription traditionnellement Libéral, est peuplé de fonctionnaire du gouvernement fédéral. Nadeau a profité des déboires des Libéraux, et bien que les Libéraux sont effectivement dans « la cave » de manière général à travers le Canada, Gatineau est néanmoins un gain potentiel important. Le candidat Libéral, Steve Mackinnon a un très grand profil (notamment, beaucoup plus que Michel Simard, candidat Libéral en 2008), et assure à Gatineau un ministre important et beaucoup d’influence dans un éventuel gouvernement Libéral.
La candidate du NPD Françoise Boivin a également un grand profil, et a une plus longue histoire dans Gatineau que Mackinnon. Cependant, après s’avoir fait battre par 2000 et 4000 votes en 2008 (comme NPD) et 2006 (comme Libs) par Nadeau, il serait surprenant que les électeurs lui donne une victoire cette fois-ci. Sa présence assure une lutte serrée à trois.
Victoire Libéral serrée suivi du Bloc et du NPD. La seule véritable certitude est que les Conservateurs finiront 4e.
| ||11 03 17
|Difficile à dire. C'était si serré en 2008, et assez serré aussi en 2006 !|
Le Bloc semble en voie de faire un peu mieux ou le même résultat qu'en 2008, selon les sondages qui le place à 40% environ au Québec. Je ne vois pas donc de progression notable du vote bloquiste dans Gatineau, sauf si le député sortant a laissé sa marque après deux mandats et 5 années au point de bénéficier d'un vote pour sa personne davantage que pour son parti.
Les libéraux sont dans la cave, Ignatieff ne passe absolument pas, tout le monde sait que le prochain gouvernement ne sera pas formé par le PLC. Au Québec, le parti est au 3e ou 4e dans les sondages. L'argument de voter du bord du gouvernement ne bénéficiera pas aux libéraux. Ils ne gagneront pas dans Gatineau.
Les conservateurs: le Québec est la province la plus insatisfaite du gouvernement Harper. Après deux mandats, il est fort à parier que le PCC ne verra pas son vote augmenter au Québec, mais plutôt diminuer. Je ne serais pas étonné qu'ils aient moins de 20% dans l'ensemble de la province. Pas très forts dans Gatineau donc.
Le NPD: le seul parti qui pourrait déloger Nadeau et le Bloc. La candidate Françoise Boivin réussira-t-elle à rallier suffisamment de fédéralistes, normalement libéraux, derrière sa cause ?
La lutte se fera entre le Bloc et le NPD. Tout dépendra de comment se divisera le vote fédéraliste. S'il se divise comme en 2008: réélection de Nadeau. Si Boivin rassemble le vote fédéraliste: victoire NPD.
| ||11 01 27
|Retour des libéraux à Gatineau. Une des trois importantes circonscriptions pour le PLC au Québec. BQ a eu la plus petite pluralité de tous le pays en 2008. Aucune croissance prévue du vote BQ. Le vote NPD s'effondre de 10 à 13% et retourne à son niveau historique. La candidate NPD ne fait plus le poids à sa quatrième élection. Le CPC n'aura pas de candidat(e) de taille. Le vote fédéraliste et anti-Harper se rallie derrière Steve MacKinnon. Victoire de plus de 2,000 votes pour les rouges.|
| ||10 01 21
|La migration du vote fédéraliste des libéraux vers le NPD fera la différence. La deuxièm place de Boivin lors de la dernière élection la positionne pour remporter ce comté. Rappelez-vous qu'un sondage local quelques semaines avant le scrutin la mettait sous les 10% ce qui a découragé de nombreux fédéralistes voulant s'opposer au Bloc de la supporter. Sa deuxième place les aura convaincu en vu de la prochaine élection.|
| ||10 03 24
|This is a very particular riding which had somewhat changed a lot since 2004. This is TCTC and this with even through four parties could have a chance at this riding.|
The main thing however is that the Bloc is only winning by default, with having a relative 30% base among the nationalist base, with the federalist vote (which had voted traditionally Liberal even in Québec's PC sweep in 1988) that is split three-way. This is not a nationalist region at any cost and it is generally centrist. However, since Mark Assad retirement, the incumbency effect is not a factor here.
So basically, this could go four way:
-If the NDP had another candidate than Boivin, this could go Liberal as the Liberal candidate in the 2008 election was not very well known. However, the current candidate is not very known in the riding.
-The NDP have somewhat of a chance especially with Boivin, but I clearly doubt it if the party don't have a better position in the polls. The riding is not very left-wing in nature.
-Nadeau could squeeze again with about 30-35% of the vote. However, he is not very liked with his constituents.
-If the Conservatives have a good candidate and with good numbers provincially, they can surely win this riding as the bandwagon effect.
| ||10 01 18
|If anything, last time proved that the NDP can potentially win here, where they never had anything close to as high to 27% before. Quebecers who have historically been notorious for voting monolithically Liberal (if they’re federalist) or BQ (if they’re sovereigntist) now have a viable third option here, which hasnt really occurred in this riding before other than maybe 1997 with the PC 2nd place above the BQs 3rd. The NDP could take some nationalist but left/centre left wing voters from the BQ as well as federalists from the Liberals and squeak out a win here and get a toehold outside Montreal.|
| ||10 01 15
|Mckinnon will lose this seat due to his patronizing personality and feeling that political life owes him a living. A terrible recruit for the PLC. Bloc holds this seat. And to the person who said he is the 'most effortlessly bilingual figure in public life', get your head examined.|
| ||09 10 08
||Nick J Boragina|
|Bear and Ape deserve a good response:|
As many of you know, I run my own projection blog, where I use a mathematical formula that I have great faith in to project each and every riding. At current polling levels, I have these results for this riding:
Lib - 30.5%
Bloc - 29.6%
NDP - 22.7%
CPC - 13.5%
Grn - 3.8%
However, that is at current polling results. 2 points province wide for the Tories could well translate to more than 2 points in this riding, and the Tories can move 2 points within minutes if the right polls are released in the right order.
My point was less that the Tories are going to win, and more that they cannot be ruled out. Even at a current 13.5% in the riding, we just don't know the dynamics of the coming election, whenever it is. For all we know, Harper could become 'cool' in Quebec again, if so, there's a good chance that he'll make a drive for the riding. Etc etc etc. There are too many unknowns to declare that someone can, or cannot win just yet. The only party I'm certain cannot win at this time is the Green Party.
| ||09 10 02
||Dr Bear & Prof Ape|
|Nick: Normally we have the upmost respect for your predictions as they are often well thought out, but this one...well it gave us some pause. Last poll we saw put the Torys at 16% in Quebec, not exactly seat-growing numbers. Another thing we'd like to point out is that parties who seem to be doing well in Quebec prior to an election almost always seem to crash and burn during the election. If we've said this once, we said it a hundred times; Quebec voters are fickle. It's this fickleness which has us conclude that the riding is virtually unpredictable until a much closer date to e-day. If compelled to make a prediction we'd say BQ keep due to Federalist vote splitting. If Boivin was out of the picture we'd say it'd return to the Liberal fold. None the less, too much going on to make an honest call.|
| ||09 09 27
||Nick J Boragina|
|Will Gatineau be won by the Tories? Perhaps. If Harper keeps trending up (he seems to gain one or two points in the polls per week!) then it will be. Regardless, this riding will be a 4-way race yet again, and when things get that close, any one of the parties can eek out a victory; Tory, Bloc, NDP, or Liberal.|
| ||09 09 24
|Fran?oise Boivin devrait l'emporter cette fois-ci dans Gatineau. Le support du NPD au Qu?bec se maintient et progresse m?me l?g?rement gr?ce ? la visibilit? de Mulcair. |
Au niveau local, de nombreux f?d?ralistes n'ont pas cru aux chances de Boivin sous la banni?re du NPD de d?faire le Bloc lors de la derni?re ?lection et ont donc vot? lib?ral. Boivin ayant termin? deuxi?me, elle sera per?u cette fois-ci comme l'alternative au Bloc et l'exode du vote lib?ral vers le NPD sera significatif. Le candidat lib?ral est peut-?tre une vedette aux yeux de l'entourage d'Ignatieff mais localement, il est largement inconnu contrairement ? Boivin qui est tr?s populaire dans la communaut?.
Gain pour le NPD
| ||09 09 22
|Well I was the first one to predict a Bloc win here last year, and it seems like I will again be the first one to predict a Bloc win in Gatineau this time.|
The problem with all those predictions for Francoise Boivin is this : where can she pick up more votes ?
The average federalist voter in Quebec tends to be more conservative than the provincial average. This does not mean that the average federalist voter is anywhere near as right-wing as, say, the average rural Alberta voter, but it still does mean that the average federalist voter does not hold the NDP in high regard.
There seemed to be a misconception among voters in 2008 that the Bloc had no chance whatsoever to win again in Gatineau. I would suggest that about two-thirds of the increase in the NDP vote from 2006 to 2008 came from people who voted for the Bloc in 2006 and thought they *had* to vote for the NDP in order to reject the Liberal Party. The vote patterns in Outremont where most new NDP votes come directly from the Bloc would seem to confirm this hypothesis.
Now that the Bloc has won Gatineau again in 2008, I fail to see any reason why those voters would feel any need to vote strategically for the NDP this time. Therefore the growth potential for Francoise Boivin is extremely limited, and she could actually lose votes compared to 2008.
This being said, Francoise Boivin remains strong enough as a candidate that one can't honestly say that there is one single clear federalist alternative to the Bloc in Gatineau. This means vote splitting will happen (again) and in such circumstances it is always extremely difficult (read, almost impossible) for any federalist candidate to win, and this means a Bloc win.
| ||09 09 12
|Liberal riding. And why does everyone assume MacKinnon is an anglophone? He's probably the most effortlessly bilingual person in public life. As for ?outsider?, he has lived and raised a family in the riding for many years.|
| ||09 09 11
|KT is right that the NDP will focus a lot of resources here, but we have to remember that the NDP did that last year, and still came up short. Last year the NDP made this riding its biggest priority in Quebec after Outremont. Layton announced his campaign here on the first day of the election and made many visits to the riding - other leaders like Ed Broadbent and Alexa McDonough also appeared, as well as Thomas Mulcair. Boivin also got a lot of coverage in the Ottawa-Gatineau media.|
Despite all of the above, she still came short and so some of the other posters below who said she may have had her best chance could be right. It is hard to know exactly what will happen here because this is not really a BQ seat as the large majority of voters here vote for federalist parties, but the vote has gotten split. There has also been some debate about whether Steven McKinnon being an Anglophone will have an effect in a Francophone riding. We will have to see if that is a factor.
I think it depends on how strong the McKinnon campaign is vs. the Boivin campaign, and whether the Liberals continue to poll higher in Quebec this year than last and what the NDP numbers also are. What's interesting is that there has not yet been a BQ prediction here this year.
| ||09 09 10
|I think this is an easy one. Nadeau has not done a great job for his riding so I think he will not be re-elected. Fran?oise Boivin being a very popular figure in the riding and that gives her a big advantage on her liberal opponent who is seen as an outsider, someone who as not been involved in the community. Based on personality, I think Gatineau will soon be represented by Boivin and the NDP.|
| ||09 09 10
|So I did a little research on this riding and it turns out that there has been an extremely strong Liberal presence here since 1896! Two words. LIBERAL LANDSLIDE.|
| ||09 09 10
|Francoise Boivin is now President of the Quebec NDP. It strains credibility to think that the NDP would not throw every resource they had toward getting their Quebec President elected. Given that Thomas Mulcair has proven he can hold his seat in a general election and given that the Liberal Party has proven no match for the separatists in Gatineau since Boivin left there is no doubt in my mind that Francoise Boiven's personal strength and the NDP's new relevance in Quebec will combine to make this seat an NDP gain.|
| ||09 09 09
|Clearly, this one will go Liberal, as the NDP vote was basically a vote for Boivin and the Bloc only won with 29% due to vote splitting between four parties.|
| ||09 09 07
|The math is simple. Liberal riding since Confederation, with the exceptions of 1984 and '06 and '08. Bloc incumbent with lowest popular vote in Canada. Perfect federalist vote split last time, allowing Bloc to win. This time: star candidate in MacKinnon, Boivin's fourth election (she's 1-2), and no Conservative presence make this a very good bet for the Liberals. They only have 1500 votes to make up.|
| ||09 09 04
|I agree with Smok...she's had her chances to take the seat, but now that Boivin's under the NDP banner and has lost for the second consecutive election, it'll be a much steeper hill for her to climb. It could be even worse for her if Thomas Mulcair ends up having his hands tied in Outremont and she's subsequently forced to go it alone. Also consider that the Liberals are intent on re-taking the riding, as the momentum seems to be on their side now. Steve MacKinnon for the win.|
| ||09 09 02
|Given that the conservative support in Quebec has collapsed irretrievably since the last election there is no way they don't lose some of their seats. This riding, cabinet minister or not, at only 32% last time with the second place in the riding liberals up across quebec is obviously one of them. Clear liberal gain. watch for the weeping felled giant interview early on election night.|
| ||09 08 31
|The Liberals could take back the riding if it wasn't for Françoise Boivin. Considering the fact that she scored strong last time, that the Bloc support was the weakest in the entire province, expect again more traditional Liberal votes going Boivin's way. It'll be close.|
| ||09 08 26
|I think Francoise Boivin wins it this time for the NDP. She came quite a close second last time when she had to fght the perception that the NDP was not a serious player. Now she has proven that she can win as a New Democrat. Polls show the NDP on an upswing in Quebec with the latest CROP poll pegging NDP support in Quebec at 18% (compared to 12% in the last election) and BQ support is down. The Liberals seem poised to provide Boivin with an added gift by nominating Steve McKinnon as their candidate. The riding is 94% francophone and the Liberals think they can win with an anglo from PEI who speaks passable French??? But hey, he has some high fallutin' title with the Liberal Party. I guess the Libs think that makes him some sort of start in the eyes f the general public.|
| ||09 08 26
|Observer, I would think that the NDP's best chance was last time. The Dippers have been dipping ever since the failed alliance with the Bloc and Libs. |
I would say that Boivin, now twice defeated is pretty much done like dinner. The only question being, will she keep enough votes to prevent the Liberal candidate from taking back this traditional Grit seat?
| ||09 08 24
|Françoise Boivin came extremely close last time. I guess many Liberal supporters will support the NDP in order to prevent another BQ win. The federal vote will vote in a bloc for the NDP and Françoise Boivin.|