| ||11 05 01
|Leaning towards Andre Arthur, but still close. Project Democracy poll:|
| ||11 04 29
|The Le Soleil poll results are perhaps the best thing that could happen for André Arthur. It suggests a pure three-way race, therefore few people will suddenly engage in strategic voting. It also suggests that André Arthur's re-election is not 100 percent certain, which will motivate his supporters to vote. Unfortunately for him the Bloc voters will also be motivated but Arthur has name recognition and he is at the top of the ballot which always gives a small bonus to whoever is the lucky candidate; as for the NDP supporters, it is not obvious at all that they will actually vote for many reasons (no organization, soft support, etc.).|
The results will be close but André Arthur will win by a margin at least 1,000 votes.
| ||11 04 29
||Bernard von Schulmann|
|A poll is out and it has a lead for Andre Arthur|
Andre Arthur - 37.3%
Elaine Michaud NDP - 31.4%
Richard Cote Bloc - 19.6%
Rejean Theriault Liberal - 9.8%
400 respondents +-4.85% at the 95% level, polled on April 27 and 28
| ||11 04 29
|En suivant les sondages, je me rends compte que ce siège pourrait facilement être emporter par la vague orange qui va déferler sur le Québec.|
Le Bloc québécois est en voie de subir le même sort que les Progressistes conservateurs en 1993.
Des sondages de terrain dans PNJC montrent que l'électorat se détourne de ses options traditionnelles.
| ||11 04 29
|Incroyable, lutte à trois dans Portneuf selon CROP qui place le NPD en tête à 31%, Arthur second à 29% et le Bloc troisième avec 28%. Avec la marge d'erreur, aussi bien parler d'une triple égalité. Pour ma part, je crois que la vague NPD qui déferle sur le Québec francophone ne peut plus être contenue, surtout pas par un candidat indépendant, et que le comté virera à l'orange le 2 mai. Bye bye André Arthur !|
| ||11 04 28
|No one will come close to dethroning ‘le roi Arthur,’ although it seems that he's soured on continuing his relationship with Harper in the House of Commons and isn't buying the whole NDP ‘wave,’ either.|
| ||11 04 26
||Dr Bear & Prof Ape|
|Time to join the chorus and say Arthur will win this thanks to the NDP taking out the BQ.|
| ||11 04 25
|Oh come on SouthpawPundit don't hold back, tell us what you really feel!|
It does indeed appear that Andre Arthur will beat the odds and win again. Highly unlikely that the Bloc can knock him off when they're only polling in the low-30s in Quebec.
If the Tories are one seat short of a majority, they now have a backup in Arthur.
Il parait maintenant que M. Arthur va gagner ici et devenir un deputé independent avec 3 victoires - quelque chose de tres rare dans la politique canadienne. Il est peu probable que le Bloc le défasse tant qu'il reste au 30 % du soutien public au Québec. Les Conservateurs peuvent s'assurer qu'il y aura un autre deputé sympathetique au cas où ils gagnent 154 sieges et en ont besoin un autre.
| ||11 04 22
|One of the only disappointing things about the NDP being ahead of the Bloc is that it forces me (with disgust) to change my prediction to Andre Arthur simply because the BQ losing too much ground to the NDP. Hopefully for his sake he spends more time in Parliament and less time at Klan rallies, or otherwise the NDP will build on its growth in Quebec and knock this twit out.|
| ||11 04 22
|Andre Arthur! This man is pretty liked in his riding. His years passed in a local radio there explains it well. Without any Conservative candidate here, Arthur will take all the Federalist vote in a riding more Federalist than Separatist. Win with an increasing gap over BQ of 3% rather than the 0,9% gap they had in 2008 elections.|
| ||11 04 20
|It's not over yet, but according to today's CROP poll, Arthur is ahead by 5 points. He could end up being one of the few Independents to get elected 3 times:|
Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier: Ind - 37%, BQ - 32%, NDP - 17%, Lib - 9%
| ||11 04 19
|Based on the CROP Poll I am now moving this back to too close to call. Although Andre Arthur has been largely invisible he does have a large following and also benefits from the Conservatives not running a candidate here as this riding is generally one of few centre-right ridings in Quebec. I still think the Bloc has the edge due to better ground organization, but still too close to call.|
| ||11 04 16
|A few days ago I would have called this for the Bloc but with Bloc support sliding to the federalist parties I this one to Andre Arthur by 1000 votes.|
| ||11 04 16
|Andre Arthur has been too much under the radar to still hold this while the Conservatives may have had a shot if he weren't running, but otherwise I expect the Bloc Quebecois to recapture this as independents almost never win three times in a row.|
| ||11 04 14
|Their lunatic of an MP is too busy hanging out with the white sheets crowd to represent his constituents in Parliament. BQ will reclaim this one.|
| ||11 04 12
|If the Bloc stays below 35% province-wide, then Arthur will win another term.|
| ||11 04 11
|Jean Lapierre visited this riding a few days ago and while he would have liked to report that Arthur's attendance record was a problem for voters, he had to report that it was a non-issue, most people say ‘il n'est pas pas pire que les autres (politiciens)’ (‘he's not worse than other politicians’), when they meet him they actually want to have a picture taken with him.|
Gilles Duceppe visited the riding and while usually a leader helps his party when he visits a riding, in this case it predictably backfired as it merely helped federalist voters to realize that if they don't vote for Arthur they will have a Bloc MP.
There is no Conservative candidate and this time the CPC has made a point to invite Arthur to a party rally held in a neighboring riding, this was well-covered in the media, it helped clarify things regarding his links with the CPC and gave him visibility.
In addition, Arthur has proven quite effective in obtaining subsidies for his riding.
I can now confidently predict that Arthur will be re-elected.
| ||11 04 06
|Les citoyens de Portneuf se plaignent de l'absence de leur député André Arthur.|
Ça ne sent pas bon pour le seul député indépendant des Communes. Comme les conservateurs ne présentent pas de candidat, ce comté qui n'est pas très souverainiste aurait pu aller aux libéraux. Mais vu la faiblesse du PLC au Québec, je vois plutôt une victoire du Bloc, surtout que très peu de voix séparaient Arthur du bloquiste en 2008.
| ||11 04 07
|As a MP, Arthur role is minimal, at best. He better likes to drive buses, than listen to his people's riding or seat in Ottawa. Moreover, he's not a conservatives, so he cannot use the argument of voting on for the power. So, this riding, the only riding of Canada with no conservative candidate, will likely shift. |
For now, NDP will get a stronger support, as liberals will shift. But BQ will get this one with another close race against Arthur.
| ||11 04 04
|The BQ is really making this riding a target in this election. The BQ candidate, Richard Cote, has been with Gilles Duceppe several times over the past week and the BQ are telling voters about Andre Arthur's bad attendance record as an MP.|
| ||11 04 02
|Considering that independents rarely win three times in a row, I would say Andre Arthur is unlikely to hold his seat and this would most likely go to the Bloc. While the Conservatives tend to perform better here than in other Quebec ridings the right will likely be split as Andre Arthur is centre-right on most issues. Bloc with a strong edge, but still early to say for sure.|
| ||11 04 01
|The BQ candidate, Richard Cote, who almost beat André Arthur in 2008, appears to have had a slow start getting his website organized, but it is now up and running and he is on Twitter as well. He also has put up some videos on YouTube and appears to be really revving up his campaign now. He is also maintaining a presence in the media by doing interviews and talking about his plans for the region. He plans to emphasize the need for economic development in the area and is pointing out Arthur's strong support for the Conservatives:|
Arthur could also be vulnerable over his high rate of absences from the House of Commons:
Cote is also getting advice from the former BQ MP, Pierre de Savoye, who held the seat from 1993-2000. Cote also got a boost from Gilles Duceppe stopping by the region today.
| ||11 03 30
||Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina|
|Arthur is done. Without a national campaign to back him up, the Bloc will finally be able to eliminate him.|
| ||11 03 31
|Yeah, given the close results last time I really expect the Bloc to win this riding especially with the CPC opting not to run a candidate here again.|
| ||11 03 29
|For the 2nd election, the Conservatives are not running a candidate here. This is expected to be because the Conservatives want to help Independent MP André Arthur. By being so closely aligned with the Conservatives, and voting with them in the House of Commons, Arthur may risk defeat at the hands of the Bloc. The BQ candidate from 2008, Richard Cote, is already going after the Cons for not running a candidate for the 2nd time:|
| ||11 03 10
|A new Léger poll released today shows the Conservatives have apparently fallen way behind the BQ in the Quebec City region because of the arena controversy:|
The increase in BQ support in this region could lead to André Arthur's defeat.
| ||09 11 11
|this is definitely an interesting one and too early to make a solid prediction either way. Andre Arthur is a rare case of an actual independent getting elected not an mp who was in a major party first. as for the riding itself it hasn't exactly been a bloc stronghold over the years as it did go liberal in 2000 . the bloc have run strong in the riding and if it goes to a major party its likely the bloc who will win. the last election was also interesting in the sense the conservatives didn't run a candidate here and it remains unclear what they plan to do here in a future vote . but its tough to say if not running a candidate helped or hurt Andre Arthur , but the close result might indicate it didn't help as much is first though. or its very possible if they had run a candidate here that Arthur would of lost and we'd have one more bloc mp in Ottawa rate now instead. but for arthur to hold the seat his vote share has to hold or go up , if it goes down again he will not likely be able to beat the bloc again. anyways for now its far to early to predict this riding. |
Ceci est definity un interesser un et trop tot faire une prediction ou une facon solides. Andre Arthur est un cas rare d'un veritable indpendent n'est pas elu un mp qui etait dans un parti majeur premier. quant au prendre lui-m?me il n'a pas ete exactement une forteresse de bloc au cours des annees comme il est alle le liberal dans 2000. le bloc a couru fort dans le prendre et s'il va a un parti majeur son probablement le bloc qui gagnera. la derniere election interessait aussi dans le sens que les conservateurs n'ont pas couru un candidat ici et il reste incertain qu'ils ont l'intention de faire ici dans un vote futur. mais son dur pour dire si ne courant pas un candidat aide ou blessure Andre Arthur, mais le resultat proche pourrait indiquer qu'il n'a pas aide comme est beaucoup premier bien que. ou son tres possible s'ils avaient couru un candidat ici qu Arthur Faire de perdu et nous aurions un plus de bloc mp a Ottawa le taux maintenant plutot. mais pour arthur pour tenir le siege sa part de vote doit la prise ou monte, s'il descend encore il ne pourra pas battre probablement le bloc encore. de toute facon pour le moment son loin a tot predire ce prendre.
| ||09 09 15
|And of course Arthur is basically a sitting Tory since by not running a candidate last time they saved his life.|
| ||09 09 12
|A ton of vote splitting on the Federalist side (assuming the CPC run a candidate) means a BQ win. Even still they were close last time and will probably win it this time because of CPC weakness.|
| ||09 09 11
|I haven't finalized my prediction here, but I am leaning towards the BQ winning this seat. Arthur won by a large margin over the BQ when he won here in 2006, but what was supposed to be a sure win again in 2008 plummeted to a near loss.|
In 2006, Arthur admitted that he had been elected in the style of independents like the late Chuck Cadman. Perhaps that shine is now fading away. Arthur also appears to have had less visibility in the last year than he did when he was first elected. As has already been noted, the BQ will be targeting this seat now more than they did last time. Arthur could also lose more votes if the Conservatives run this time.
We will have to wait and see which candidate runs before making a final prediction.
| ||09 09 08
||Nick J Boragina|
|Arthur is a goner. His novelty has worn off, and if the Tories run here (and they very well might run) he stands no chance at all. I could actually see the Liberals winning here.|
| ||09 09 04
|‘On va tous être la’ Same quote after 2004 to go and help Thierry St-Cyr win it in Jeanne Le Ber. Probably to let people know they will beat Andre Arthur once and for all.|
| ||09 09 01
|An update regarding this race. The Bloc candidate, Richard Cote, has said publicly that he wants the Conservative Party to have its own candidate in the riding, and Gilles Duceppe has announced that he would be heavily targeting this seat. The Bloc MP for Rimouski, Claude Guimond, even said, ‘on va tous etre la’ (‘we will all be there’, speaking of the Bloc team).|
This tells me that the Bloc has good reasons to believe that the race will be close between them and Arthur. However the Bloc campaign may well backfire. In 2006 the Bloc worked really hard to keep the seat and they lost. In 2008 the party did absolutely nothing to win Portneuf and they almost won. This seems to support the idea that many Liberal/NDP voters will vote for Arthur if, and only if, they believe their votes are necessary to block the Bloc. This is definitely a race to watch...
| ||09 09 01
|Philly D. would be well-advised to verify past election results before dismissing as ‘ridiculous’ the idea that some Liberal/NDP voters could vote for Arthur in order to block the Bloc.|
In 2008 the Liberal candidate received 16 percent of the vote and the NDP candidate got 13 percent.
In 2006 the combined Liberal/NDP vote in the riding was under 10 percent.
As Arthur generally votes with the Conservatives it is almost certain that those who voted Conservative in 2006 mostly voted for Arthur in 2008. Therefore it is almost certain that voters who voted Liberal or NDP in 2008 and did not do so in 2006, mostly voted for Arthur in 2006.
If those voters were willing to vote for Arthur in 2006 to block the Bloc, why would they be so unwilling to vote for him now that they are aware that the Bloc has a chance of winning the riding, and that voting for Arthur is the only realistic way of avoiding a Bloc win ?
| ||09 08 31
|Liberal, let alone NDP, votes move to ARTHUR??? Ridiculous! If anything, last times result may result in the NDP vote strategically voting for the Bloc, especially if there is no Conservative candidate (this is where the NDP seems to be gaining much of its new support). The Liberal vote, meanwhile, will probably increase.|
To those who are unaware, Andre Arthur is a former radio shock-jock a la Limbaugh - people who believe that since he is an Independent and that he will collect votes a la Bill Casey have absolutely no idea what they are talking about!
| ||09 08 26
|Andre Arthur has stated that he will run again... even though he expects to lose as the political parties don't like the concept of an Independent MP and will do whatever they can to beat him. At least that's what he said in an interview with Isabelle Marechal (98.5 FM) a few days ago.|
Everybody thought he would win easily in 2008 and I believe this may have encouraged many Liberal/NDP voters to vote Liberal or NDP, thinking that their vote was not necessary for Arthur to block the Bloc. As Arthur won by less than 1,000 votes in 2008, I believe that some of these voters might vote for him this time just to avoid a Bloc win, and I suspect that Arthur may be trying to encourage this by claiming that he expects to lose.
If there is a Conservative candidate, the Bloc will certainly win due to federalist vote splitting. If there is no Conservative candidate, I expect Arthur to win narrowly.
| ||09 08 26
|If Andre Arthur runs again, he holds the seat, if not, the Tories should get it, given their strong results in 2003, and in 2000 as the CA.|
If Arthur does run again, Tories will likely sit this one out, since Arthur votes with them anyway!
| ||09 08 24
|Last time Conservatives thought they were helping André Arthur by not contesting this seat. By doing that, Arthur almost lost the election for the BQ. Unless he runs again for the Conservative Party, I don't think he is going to be reelected. Too soon to predict.|
| ||11 04 28
|I guess Arthur will probably win, his coalition with the Conservatives (dont laugh its true) will save him for a second election.|