Projet D'Élection Prévision
www.electionprediction.com

élection générale (Canada) - 2011

Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie


La prévision a changé
2011-05-01 22:30:00
 


 
Profil de circonscription

candidats:

Beauregard, Kettly

Berthiaume, Jean-Patrick

Bigras, Bernard

Boulerice, Alexandre

Chénier, Stéphane

Forté, Sébastien

Muldeen, Sameer

Député:
Bernard Bigras

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • rosemont-petite-patrie (218/218 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


  •  


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 05 01 Stéphane Gaudet
    66.130.172.171
    Ça y est, je fais enfin une prédiction. Victoire NPD ! On entend que la campagne d'Alexandre Boulerice va très bien et que celle de Bernard Bigras va très mal. Si mal qu'il a dû faire appel à Gérald Larose pour rallumer la flamme souverainiste... avec les résultats qu'on connaît: Larose a été insultant et vulgaire envers Jack Layton et les fédéralistes, ce qui a finalement nui à Bigras et au Bloc. Duceppe a passé deux jours à commenter les propos de Larose. Pas un comté de la banlieue de Montréal, mais un comté francophone, avec beaucoup de jeunes qui sont fatigués du débat constitutionnel et de la question nationale, nationalistes certes, mais plus progressistes que souverainistes, auprès de qui l'éternel discours de ‘défense des intérêts du Québec’ ne fonctionne plus. La démographie du comté a changé (le Plateau déborde maintenant dans la Petite Patrie et dans Rosemont), et ça paraît ! Victoire de Boulerice, qui pourrait aussi être le prélude d'une victoire de Françoise David (Québec solidaire) dans Gouin aux prochaines élections québécoises.
    11 04 30 MF
    74.15.65.209
    Another NDP pickup. The NDP is running a very high profile candidate here and Rosemont is ripe for the picking.
    11 04 29 Paul Tremblay
    74.63.112.138
    If the NDP does as well in Quebec as some people think they will, they will win this seat. Past election results suggest that there is actually an NDP base in the riding (small but still above the provincial average) and the vote for Quebec solidaire provincially is also well above the average.
    However, as I mentioned elsewhere on this site, for various reasons I don't believe the NDP will get numbers in the ballot box that would be anywhere near what some province-wide polls suggest, and for this reason alone I predict that Bernard Bigras will keep his seat, but the results will be much closer than in any previous election since the Bloc was created.
    11 04 29 expat
    209.105.131.192
    The Bloc vote in Montreal is circling down the drain faster every day.
    With a strong nationalist and hardworking high profile candidate running for the NDP, the party is presenting a perfect fit for Rosemont. Boulerice has outworked Bigras and is perfectly positioned to take advantage of the huge NDP wave sweeping across Quebec.
    11 04 29 Clarence
    174.118.230.117
    Divide the Bloc vote in half. Give half to the NDP. This is practically what we can do with Quebec ridings now. And it's a left-leaning riding, viz Q-Solidaire. The NDP wins this one.
    11 04 28 Tory in Dixie
    97.81.164.202
    Mon prediction est que l'npd n'obtiendra pas plusiers sieges en Montreal, mais Rosemont est une exception.
    11 04 26 Stéphane Gaudet
    66.130.172.171
    Dans le journal La Presse, Vincent Marissal écrit:
    ‘La vague orange du NPD de Jack Layton inquiète aussi dans la circonscription voisine de Rosemont-Petite-Patrie (victoire du Bloc par 17 000 voix de majorité), où le pointage bloquiste indique une poussée du NPD.
    Clairement, on sent chez les électeurs traditionnellement bloquistes une certaine lassitude dans ces élections.’
    Et Duceppe qui fait campagne dans une forteresse bloquiste telle Hochelaga... Ça veut dire que le NPD pourrait faire perdre des comtés bloquistes de l'Est de l'île jugés imprenables jusqu'ici. Le pointage bloquiste dans Rosemont le montre, les sondages internes du Bloc confirment.
    11 04 25 Stéphane Gaudet
    66.130.172.171
    Aussi incroyable que cela puisse paraître, je change ma prédiction pour cette circonscription. Le CROP a été le premier sondage à placer le NPD 1er au Québec, suivi par EKOS. Maintenant, même Nanos place le Bloc derrière le NPD. Mais plus que les sondages, ce sont les commentaires des gens du comté qui me font penser que la victoire du Bloc dans Rosemont n'est plus assurée, loin de là. Tout le monde me dit qu'ils vont voter NPD cette année, tous d'habituels électeurs bloquistes. Et pas seulement des jeunes ! Parmi les commentaires que j'entends le plus souvent: ‘Un vote pour le Bloc, ça ne change rien’, ‘Avec le Bloc, Harper reste au pouvoir, et moi je veux le débarquer du pouvoir’. Je donne encore l'avantage au Bloc, mais je ne serais pas surpris maintenant si Alexandre Boulerice gagnait. Pas surpris du tout. Le Bloc devrait conserver une bonne part de ses sièges hors de Montréal, mais c'est beaucoup moins sûr pour l'électorat urbain et suburbain.
    11 04 25 Seth
    173.180.219.225
    Seen the Quebec numbers in the latest Environics poll? NDP 41%, Bloc 28%. Expect the NDP to take seats away from the Bloc in ridings where the Liberals and Tories are not players. Ridings like this one.
    11 04 25 dr Bear without Prof Ape
    70.54.152.240
    The BQ are too strong to lose this time however it is a riding the NDP could nurture and win in a future election. That is of course if Jackomania lasts. Recall the Liberals targeted this riding in '97 but that faded pretty quickly.
    11 04 25 TCR
    74.56.253.233
    I'm eyeing this riding with great interest. This is the same riding area that elected the one Quebec Solidaire MP - a party LEFT of the parti quebecois. Also, it's the one borough in Montreal run by Projet Montreal, also rather left-wing in approach.
    I don't think the voters in this riding feel enough attachment to their MP (unlike in Laurie-Saint-Maire) to not change their vote. I wouldn't be too surprised if the NDP won here.
    11 04 24 Jean
    24.201.117.56
    Probably a contest between NDP and Bloc. The Bloc is strong. This riding also meets conditions for a strong NDP showing. Demographically and historically. After 1989-1990, when the NDP sunk its own boat in Quebec, a large proportion of the vote has been with the Bloc in the absence of an alternative until now. The NDP candidate is running a strong campaign. It looks like in this riding the NDP could have an organization that can translate voting intentions into actual votes.
    11 04 23 Teddy Boragina
    174.118.61.19
    My math does not have the NDP winning here, but I know people from Montreal who are telling me that this is a riding I should be keeping an eye on. We'll have to see.
    11 04 20 expat
    209.105.131.192
    This is should be solid Bloc - Bigras won with 52% last time, and at 80% Francophone, this is the kind of east-end Montreal riding that they should have no trouble holding.
    But if the NDP poll numbers in the province and in Montreal are to be believed, their votes have to be coming from somewhere, and I'd argue that Rosemont represents one of their top 2 pick-up opportunities on the Island (assuming they hold Outremont, and probably about on par with Jeanne -Le Ber).
    They are definitely fielding one of their better candidates here - union activist Alexandre Boulerice - and he is running a very active, aggressive, visible campaign throughout the riding. He's been campaigning with Layton and Mulcair, featured as one of the NDP's star candidates in Quebec, and is ubiquitous in the riding (and definitely winning the sign war these days, for whatever that is worth).
    Like the previous poster, I've been hearing from friends in Rosemont (I lived there until a few years ago when I moved a few blocks away to now live in the Outremont riding) that they are shifting their usual Bloc vote to the NDP. But if Boulerice is going to win, he's also going to need to eat at least a bit into the Liberal previous 18% support - presumably much of it from immigrant and ethnic communities - in addition to peeling off Bloc voters.
    Given how much ground Boulerice has to make up (52% for Bigras to 17% for Boulerice in 2008), the swing might just be too much. But if grassroots enthusiasm, cresting NDP support in Montreal/Quebec, and an effective candidate can make the difference, it could happen.
    At the moment, I expect Bigras to win by a much narrower margin than in 2008 - but an NDP upset here is clearly possible.
    11 04 20 Neal
    184.144.51.42
    Bloc will hold this riding, but watch for NDP gains in this one. It is one of 5 I think the NDP has real potential with long term in Montreal.
    This election may well signal the beginning of the end for the Bloc, and with a strong all out campaign, it sets the stage for the next election for the Dippers. The other ridings they need to target are, in addition to Outremont: Hochelaga, Laurier Ste Marie and Pointe de l'ile.
    11 04 13 Stéphane Gaudet
    66.130.172.171
    Beaucoup de gens qui habitent la circonscription me disent qu'ils voteront cette année pour le candidat Alexandre Boulerice, du NPD. Tous des gens qui avaient l'habitude de voter pour le Bloc. Mais je ne crois pas que cela soit suffisant pour ébranler Bigras et le Bloc, qui devraient gagner sans difficulté. Au mieux pour le NPD, Boulerice finira deuxième et réduira la majorité de Bigras.
    11 03 28 M.Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    Another solid East end Bloc stronghold.
    11 03 29 Tony Ducey
    76.11.85.66
    This riding will stay Bloc. Look for Bigras to be a candidate for the BQ leadership should Duceppe resign after this term.
    09 08 26 JF Breton
    207.134.225.57
    Circonscription francophone et fortement indépendantiste. J'ai habité cette circonscription et j'ai pu y constater la ferveur souverainiste. Aux dernières élections, 18000 voix de majorité pour le BQ. Château-fort bloquiste.



    Navigate to 2011 - élection générale | Actualité provinciale | Soumettez l'information ici

    Canada Federal Election - 2011
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Milton Chan, 1999-2011 - Email Webmaster