Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011


La prévision a changé
2009-08-27 11:19:00

Profil de circonscription


Bernier, Alain

Colly, Garnet

De Ioris, Riccardo

Di Pardo, Michael

Pacetti, Massimo

Peressini, Roberta

Massimo Pacetti

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • saint-leonard-saint-michel (199/199 Polls)
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  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 29 expat
    A riding where nearly 60% of the population is allophone (largely Italian) and more than 40% are immigrants.
    This has long been a Liberal party stronghold, and while the Liberal vote is taking a hit in this election and is draining off to the NDP, enough of it remains intact (especially in ‘ethnic’ communities) that this seat should be a relatively easy Liberal hold.
    It will be interesting on election night to see how much the NDP will increase their vote share here - they will certainly place second, but it is unclear how much of the urban Montreal Italian and other ‘ethnic’ vote they are able to bring along in their wave.
    11 04 01 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    This is the former riding of Gagliano, Mr.Adscam-Sponsership-Scandal and the Liberals have still won this seat by large margins. The Bloc's best showing ever here was a whopping 27% of the vote. The Tories finished second here last time. If this riding ever does fall to another party, it will be another federalist party.
    11 03 28 M.Lunn
    One of the most heavily Allophone ridings in Quebec thus a micronism of how Allophones vote and this means solidly Liberal. While the Tories have aggressively targeted ethnic voters, that is more in the GTA and GVRD where they have a chance at winning not Montreal. Besides the WASP population tends to favour the Conservatives in English Canada but Liberals in Quebec and with the immigrant population, winning them in English Canada doesn't mean they will start voting Conservative in Quebec. The Liberals have long been the party of federalist and that will take several elections to change.
    09 12 09 Dr Bear Without Prof Ape
    Brian: Having grown up in Montreal, this riding is certainly not Jewish. Italian, yes, very much so, but not Jewish. Never the less, your point is still valid. Heavily Italian, heavily federalist, typical Montreal Liberal riding. No contest for anyone else. Over 53% for Pacetti in '08...and that was a BAD year for the Liberals!
    09 09 14 Brian A
    Jews and Italians love their Liberals and this riding is big on both. Pacetti could go on vacation during the election and he'd still easily win.
    09 08 26 Sean P.F.
    Liberal victory. No if's, and's or but's. This was a Liberal riding even during the Mulroney years.
    Liberal Massimo Pacetti will win re-election.

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