Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011


La prévision a changé
2009-09-01 15:59:00

Profil de circonscription


Daoust, Patrick

Demers, Bernard

Genest, Réjean

Leclerc, Mélisa

Vincent, Robert

Robert Vincent

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • shefford (184/184 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 05 01 Stéphane Gaudet
    Le seul sondage avec un échantillon valable (1 000 personnes) à avoir été fait au Québec l'a été par Léger Marketing. Leur dernier donne 40% au NPD (+28) et 27% au Bloc (-11%), soit un swing de presque 20%. Or, le NPD n'a besoin que d'un transfert (swing) de 15% pour ravir le comté au Bloc. Évidemment, le swing de 20% ne sera pas uniforme partout au Québec, mais cette circonscription a tout du genre de comté qui pourrait basculer: Montérégie, pas loin de Montréal, NPD au-dessus de 10% en 2008, francophone, classe moyenne, une zone urbaine importante... Si on devait définit un type de comté susceptible de passer au NPD lundi soir, Shefford en serait un bon exemple. Victoire NPD, comme dans le comté voisin de Brome-Missisquoi.
    11 04 29 expat
    Apply the current Quebec polling results to this Shefford, and it should result in a NDP victory - not surprising, given that the riding results last time out closely mirrored the Quebec-wide vote percentages.
    If the NDP is taking an additional 20-25% above their 2008 total (most polls these days are showing a bigger increase, so this is a low end estimate), in Shefford that would translate into a vote total of 32-37% (up from 12.5% last time).
    Similarly, the Bloc is losing at least 12-15% of their vote from 2008. Extrapolating the 43% they received here last time, that would drop to 28-31%.
    Neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives are positioned to take advantage of a NDP/Bloc split here, both will be lagging far behind under 20%.
    The local NDP candidate is a gardening journalist from Granby - not a high profile recruit, but not an embarrassing ‘phantom candidate’ either . Polls from other ridings in L'Estrie have shown a willingness to vote NDP.
    The question is whether the local BQ/PQ organisation is able to pull out a ground game sufficient to make up enough votes they are losing in the massive swing to the NDP. By all indications on the ground and in the media across Quebec, the NDP wave is continuing to build, so I doubt the BQ will be able to salvage seats like this.
    A quiet gardener named Rejean Genest is going to be going to Ottawa as a NDP MP from Shefford - something I'm sure neither he nor the party thought possible when this election was called a few weeks ago.
    11 04 06 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    A recent poll shows the Bloc and Liberals are neck and neck in the province with the Bloc down to 28%. It might just be a one off poll, that ‘20th time’ (out of 20), or it might signify some Bloc weakness. If the latter, this riding may become vulnerable.
    11 03 30 Tony Ducey
    Another riding where vote-splitting allows a Bloc candidate to win the riding.
    11 03 28 M.Lunn
    Although somewhat federalist, the Bloc will win not due to anything they offer but rather the weaknesses of the three federalist parties.
    09 09 01 Paul Tremblay
    Shefford is a federalist riding, but the Bloc won the riding in the 2004 anti-Liberal wave, and they kept the riding in 2006 and 2008 due to federalist vote splitting.
    There is no reason to believe that vote splitting will end this year and historically incumbents have a huge advantage in Shefford. I therefore expect an easy win for the Bloc.

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