Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek

Prediction Changed
2011-04-12 09:11:00

Constituency Profile


Clark, Brad

Fields, Wendell

Hart Dyke, David

Hill, Gord

Innes, Bob Green

Mann, Bob

Marston, Wayne

Pattinson, Greg

Stockwell, Michelle

Wayne Marston

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • hamilton-east (114/190 Polls)
  • stoney-creek (114/210 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 01 robert
    You got to love the Grits all posting here that they have tons of signs and will win. I walked by the Stoney Creek Dairy yesterday to see that hundreds upon hundreds of liberals that were gonna show up and support their leader. And what did i find - maybe 75 - maybe. And this was folks from 4 different Liberal campaigns it seemed as signes for 4 candidates were visable. So really, can we put this silliness to rest. As for Clark - again no chance at all - although he will do OK in the Stoney Creek side of the riding at the end of the day it will be something like Marston 45%, Clark 32%, Stockwell 19% Green 3% and the rest 1% combined.
    11 04 29 Gymrat53
    Really does not bode well for for the Liberal cause when it is reported in the Spec that longtime Liberal stalwart and former HESC federal Liberal candidate Larry DiIanni abandons his own local candidate and campaigns for Tory David Sweet in Ancaster. The most obvious case of the first high profile rat leaving the sinking ship. Not enough Liberal support here to be a danger of splitting the anti Harper vote. A comfortable hold for Wayne after all.
    11 04 27
    Not N-P. you must be kidding. In 1999 the riding was then called Stoney Creek. Tory Grimsby, has been jetisonned in favour of NDP stronghold Hamilton East- one of the most impoverished areas in all of Canada. You further disregard Clark's poor showing against Liberal mannequin, Jennifer Mossop, who went on to become one of the most vapid, vacuous and ineffectual MPPs in recent memory.
    11 04 26 rsg
    The answer to your question NNP is seats that are rural right wing, the Conservatives are primarily not cpmpetitive in the cities of Ontario and their support is mostly rural.The battle is between Liberals and the NDP in the urban areas, translation no majority for the Conservatives.
    11 04 25 Not Non-Partisan
    Exactly which ridings do you win if you have 48% in Ontario. Maybe HESC is a stretch but there certainly are going to be surprises. Brad Clark is really underestimated by pundits on this page. Let's not forget that he won over 21,000 votes in the '99 provincial. If not here... where?
    11 04 24 Sam Izdat
    Just on the off chance that R.O. may be right and Clark has a chance, it is best that all non right- wingers vote strategically and vote NDP. The pro Liberal posters with their very subjective sign counts are guilty of some egregious wishful thinking.
    11 04 20 R.O.
    If i was forced to make choice i'd say ndp hold but i also could see conservative Brad Clark having a chance here if ndp and liberals significantly split anti harper vote. as when considering his municipal and provincial profile in riding he's likely to do better than previous tory candidate which would make race alot closer . i don't really buy into liberal predictions or see why Michelle Stockwell have any chance here or why she'd do better than Tony Valeri and Larry Di Ianni both extremely high profile liberals in Hamilton . honestly it seems like Hamilton is becoming the ndp town it used to be. but this riding also includes Stoney Creek an area that has been less friendly to ndp and riding that Brad Clark won several years ago for Ontario pc party at provincial level. he also has odd advantage of being first name on an extremly confusing ballot of 9 candidates that has to be worth something. so riding could stay ndp but it might get more interesting depending on what happens final week.
    11 04 18 Karrie
    Was driving around the Hamilton East portion of the riding (Ottawa Street, Maple) There are very little NDP signs, more Liberal.

    Same on the other side of the Expressway, it looks like the NDP vote is collapsing. Looks like a close race.

    I think the Liberals will pull this one off.
    11 04 17 Sam Izdat
    Marston should hold for the NDP. But it may be close. Liberals will be a distant third. This election may set records for low voter turnout. Conservatives benefit from low turnout because seniors will get out to vote. Like it or not we are in an informal ,Stop Harper, coalition. The Liberal campaign in HESC is weak. Liberal supporters would be best served to vote strategically- and vote NDP to stop Harper. Whether they will see the obvious is another question.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    The NDP should hold this as they are strong in Hamilton, while Stoney Creek is more suburban and this in 2004 many went Liberal since the Tories were viewed as too extreme, but since then the Tories have picked up many of the Liberal suburban votes. Not nearly enough to win the riding or even come in second, but enough to prevent a Liberal win.
    11 04 14 From Stoney Creek
    There is a huge Liberal Wave in my area (east of DeWitt, Shadeland, Vinehill area). There are around 20 Liberal signs, there is a Clark sign and I think I saw a Marston sign also.
    11 04 13 robert
    I see the Liberals are at it again on these boards. I live in HE-SC (SC specifically) and i sure dont see any large wave of support for the Liberals going on here. Lots of Clark signs in Stoney Creek (ward 9 area mostly) but all these Liberal posters here are delusional if they think they have any chance at all of winning this riding - especially after watching Iggy at the english debate last night and the french debate tonight. I wouldnt be surprised if Clark finishes 2nd and the Liberals 3rd.
    11 04 11 jeff316
    While it's definitely ripe for a future Liberal win, despite crazy signage (which Hamilton is known for) and some 'interesting' poll numbers, the NDP will likely hang on to this seat. It's interesting how one severe poll number has a cadre of predictors posting in every NDP-held seat practically south of Timmins. The thing with provincial polling is that trends are not applied evenly across the province; even if Nanos' NDP at 13 percent is accurate (which is unlikely) that's not going to affect each riding the same way. But let's say the NDP vote does drop to 13 percent - the NDP will likely lose Trinity-Spadina, Hamilton Mountain and maybe even London-Fanshawe to the Liberals, maybe Welland to the Conservatives; but with a decent and well-known Conservative candidate, a middling Liberal one, a strong NDP history and machinery on the ground, the strike and the demographics of Hamilton East coming into play, I'd wager that the NDP will keep Hamilton East-Stoney Creek.
    11 04 11 East Ender
    Anybody who thinks that Brad Clark can squeeze a win in HESC is delusional. Even if he could carry all of SC (no candidate since '88 has been very strong in SC), high-turnout in HE would ruin his chances.
    Di Ianni's inability to win here last time around was due to a very weak national leader. This time around, the Liberal's have a great candidate. Marston has been seen as ineffective lately, with not much growth or positive change in the riding since Valeri was MP.
    This election, Marston is going to be handed his retirement slip.
    11 04 11 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    With all due respect to Stevo, have you been to Hamilton lately? Dr Bear is there right now and has not seen this much support for the Liberals since '04! It's more than just individual polls (which have an obvious trend despite margine of error...the NDP are dropping in Ontario. It's not a matter of If but a matter of degrees). I would suggest comming to Hamilton and judging for himself. We were both surprised from what we saw.
    11 04 09 MF
    Most of the polls show the NDP to be holding their ground in Ontario (Nanos seems to be the outlier). Hamilton has emerged into quite the NDP stronghold over the past few years, and Wayne Marston won this by a very wide margin over ‘star candidate’ Larry DiIanni. This time the Liberals have a low-profile candidate, and even if the party is a bit on the upswing province-wide, this should stay NDP by a comfortable margin.
    11 04 09 Stevo
    With due respect to Bear & Ape, every election they always put way too much stock in individual polls broken down by province (hence small sample sizes and high margin of error). It is highly unlikely that the NDP is actually doing so poorly in Ontario. They will probably hold this seat but a Conservative national majority may see it join the wave.
    11 04 09 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Wow! NDP numbers are WAAAAY down in Ontario (8% a.t.m.) and that certainly brings this riding into play...for the Liberals! The grits are tied with the CPC at just over 41% in the province. What was an easy NDP win is now a nail biter and would even say leading grit!
    11 04 09 KH
    Stoney Creek is awash in Liberal red (well, white signs).
    If you can call HM for Marie, you can call HESC for the likable Michelle.
    11 04 08 DL
    This will be an easy NDP hold. Marston won big last time and the Liberals ended up with a nobody running for them after being turned down by every big name they approached. Most polls show NDP support across Ontario unchanged from 2008 while Liberal support is even lower (Ipsos Apr. 8 NDP 17%, Forum April 7 NDP 18%, Angus Reid Apr. 6 NDP 19%, Environics April 6 NDP 21%). If the NDP loses here - it will be to the Tories not the Liberals.
    11 04 08
    The NDP vote in Ontario has collapsed ..23% down to 11%..Ignatieff held a large riding last night in Hamilton..This seat will flip to the Liberals
    11 04 07 MH
    In HE-SC a great deal depends on how much the Liberal vote in Ontario recovers from its low point in 2008, and on what happens to soft NDP support as a result. The Conservatives are not a significant factor here, even though they will very likely continue to have a plurality of the seats nationally and in Ontario. The NDP has the inside track, but the race is still TCTC.
    11 04 07 Marco Ricci
    The NDP will likely hold this until the Liberal numbers go higher in Ontario or until they find a really big-name candidate. I think the Liberals need someone like Sheila Copps to run here if they are going to win this riding again, but she turned down Ignatieff's offer to come back.
    11 04 03 jeff316
    The entry of local councillor and former Stoney Creek MPP Brad Clark certainly makes this a bit more interesting and could have helped a stronger Liberal candidate. The problem is, he suffers from the perception that he's just another career politician always looking for the next opportunity. He's already been turfed once before by the electorate (from a much more favourable riding in 2003), he got into a bit of heat during the last council for leaking tape-recorder info the the media, and he just ran for council four months ago. He's not going to improve their vote totals outside of Stoney Creek, so his impact really is a wash.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    In all likelihood the NDP should hold this. The Tories may win the Stoney Creek portion which they almost did last time around but will get clobbered in the Hamilton portion thus no chance at winning this. The challenge for the Liberals is they need to gain back the centrist and centre-right votes they lost to the Tories in Stoney Creek while simultaneously winning back the soft NDP votes in Hamilton. So far they seem to have done a better job at winning back soft NDP votes than moderate Tory votes thus still giving the edge to the NDP.
    11 04 01 R.O.
    The entry of Brad Clark into the race changes things up entirely , its clearly now a ndp / conservative race. it was usually a ndp / liberal race but with a weak liberal candidate its not clear they can maintain such a strong presence in the riding. Brad Clark has elected experience in the riding at municipal and provincial level and strongest tory candidate they could of hoped to find in the riding and would of easily been able to win old Stoney Creek riding if it still existed when considering tory poll numbers . but the ndp still has there supporters in Hamilton and its one of there strongest cities in Ontario as they currently have 3 mp's. i don't expect Wayne Marston or his union supporters to easily give up the seat so things could get very interesting here quick.
    11 04 01 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    A Conservative prediction...yeah...that's just special. Anyone who makes such a prediction doesn't know Hamilton (or is delusional). If the riding was the old Stoney Creek riding...well...maybe...but it's not Stoney Creek. It has a good ol Hamilton East lumped on and that part is going very solidly NDP. Liberal candidate is too weak to make a dent in NDP support.
    11 03 30 Nicholas
    Brad Clark is running for the Conservatives and can be considered a star candidate. He is fairly popular in Stoney Creek and is good cabinet potential. I predict a Conservative squeeker. The Conservatives will win the Stoney Creek section of the riding and its possible that section of the riding could have a higher turnout than previous elections. The Conservatives will win the Rosedale area of Hamilton off King near Nash (but probably by a smaller margin than Stoney Creek). East Hamilton will vote NDP but the Conservatives will do just well enough there to push them over the top. Conservative win by 100 votes or less. On their own without Brad Clark they could probably come a strong second (like on the Hamilton Mountain). They would have come in second last election but because the Liberals had a strong candidate they came in second. The Liberals do not have a strong candidate this time. But with Brad Clark, he will push the Conservatives over the top helping them take the riding. Combine a strong Conservative vote with a star candidate and the fact that Harper is probably going to win again so the voters in the riding are going to want to be on side of the government.
    10 11 17 seasaw
    This riding TCTC ? Wayne Marston can take this riding, unless there's a '93 type disaster. For those who think the Libs actually have a chance here, look at Iggy's poll numbers, they're worse than Dion's and still trailing Harper, inspite the recession and the daily beating Harper's received since becoming PM, and all the beatings Dion received. For the Grits to have a chance, Iggy's either got to turn things around very quickly, or they have to nominate Jesus Christ as their candidate.
    10 03 21 robert
    Remind me again who this Big Name Liberal candidate is?
    09 01 03 SH
    IMO, this one will be close depending on the candidate that the Liberals decide to run with. Larry DiIanni didn't win the Mayor's race for a reason and it wasn't the competition, we didn't want as Mayor and we sure didn't want him as our MP. If the Grits run someone popular such as the Riding's Councillor, Mr. Marston will have his hands full.
    09 12 26 A.S.
    I'll remain strategically ambivalent, even if I shouldn't--all because of the swaths of Stoney Creek ethnoburbia, which give the Grits an eternal reason to ‘try’; plus a touch of Wayne Marston's ‘perennial loser’ past for good measure. But boy, Larry DiIanni bombed beyond most people's (even New Democrats', I suspect) expectations. Which means, without a DiIanni-scale candidate, the Liberals might even be skinned by the Tories. And as we know, the ultra-steeltown nature of Hamilton East pretty well cancels out Tory victory here, so...another rubber stamp for galumphing labour-union tortoise Wayne Marston? Something tells me, this seat's one of those true sleeper linchpins for Jack Layton's savvy electoral march to something-or-another...
    09 11 29 robert
    There can be no doubt in this riding. Tories have no chance due to demographics of Hamilton East portion of riding. And the Liberals, what a joke, they were apparently going to announce their star candidate weeks (almost months now) ago. The fact that the Grits cannot find a candidate says a lot about their chances in this riding. Rumour of a municipal councillor (Maria Pearson?) is also quite funny since she won’t commit apparently until after the municipal election is over in October 2010. Wants to make sure she has a job (assuming she wins her council seat) after losing the Federal election if she takes the plunge I guess.
    09 11 18 binriso
    This riding has no business being TCTC, the NDP won huge even though they had only about 700 more votes than last time and the Liberals and CPC each lost a boatload of votes with the CPC actually in a fairly distant 3rd (23.8%) a few points behind the Liberals. The Liberals even had a star candidate. I can see something like a 20-point margin occurring here in a 45-25-25 split between the main 3 contenders, though the Liberals may shave a couple points off the NDP and trim the margin to 15 or so.
    09 09 29 David Y.
    Wayne Marsden increased the spread of his 2006 victory from 393 votes to 6464 votes in 2008.
    If New Democrats get elected to ridings for a second time, history shows that they tend not to be defeated unless there is a 1993-type disaster, and the latest polls shows NDP support around the same level as the 2008 election, so this riding should remain as is.
    NDP hold!
    09 08 31 MF
    Larry DiIanni was supposed to be some sort of ‘star candidate’ for the Liberals and yet Wayne Marston - who is not particularly high-profile - won by 7,000 votes. Paul Miller was the only new member of the NDP elected in the 2007 provincial election, and there may be a positive spillover from Andrea Horwath's leadership as well. NDP hold.

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