Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-04-08 11:45:00

Constituency Profile


Kent, Peter

Koehl, Norbert

Mock, Karen

Strelchik, Simon

White, Liz

Hon. Peter Kent

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • thornhill (177/177 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 27 AutSerge
    Had Karen Mock run in 2008 instead of Susan Kadis, this would likely still be a Liberal riding. She didn't. Kent doesn't live in the riding any more than the riding's other Conservative Peter Shurman, does. But he did buy a fixer-upper to anchor a local presence, which is nice. More importantly, Kent is the closest thing to a Red Tory as the Conservatives still have, has done a marvellous job engaging with the local community, and has come across as a genuinely decent guy. Kent will win, and his margin will grow. The Conservatives are lucky to have him.
    11 04 23 MH
    Peter Kent didn't cut it in St. Paul's in 2006, but he scored in this suburban riding in 2008, the year of the Dion disaster, and will have no trouble keeping it this year. The margin of victory may be a bit smaller, though.
    11 04 21 zehavi
    i was reading many polls done on this riding throughout the campaign. Kent is showing over 50% of the vote with a lock in win. No contest here
    11 04 19 M. Lunn
    Considering the Liberals are heavily targeting many GTA ridings but not spending much time here, I suspect they don't think they have much chance at regaining it. Also the Tories got 49% last time around so appealing to soft NDP and Green votes won't be enough to capture this riding unlike say Mississauga-Erindale or Oak Ridges-Markham where it could work; the Liberals must capture some soft Tory voters which they have failed to do this election.
    11 04 19 Kevyn Nightingale
    Peter's done a great job, and the constituents know it. More importantly, Stephen Harper has played hard and well to this demographic - suburban families with kids. A bigger win than last time.
    11 04 17 MF
    Stevo is right Canadian Jews don't simply vote for the most pro-Israel candidate on the ballot. If that were the case the Canadian Alliance would have been in contention in Thornhill in 2000! That's not to say that Israel isn't an issue at all, I'm sure it did play a role in Peter Kent's victory in 2008, but there were other issues as well (Kent's star candidacy, a poor Liberal national campaign, etc. which helped not only among the Jewish community but Thornhill as a whole). And the claim that they vote for Jewish candidates is not only borne out by the fact that non-Jewish candidates have won Thornhill, but also by the fact that the most ‘Jewish’ Jews - the Orthodox - voted overwhelmingly for Kent (following a similar pattern from the US). I think the Israel issue will be more neutralized this time around - Ignatieff has a clearer pro-Israel stance and I can't see the Tories scoring huge points on Harper's failed UN Security Council bid. And Karen Mock seems to be a stronger candidate than Susan Kadis, who was a pretty weak MP. I will give the edge to Kent because of his high profile and the advantage of incumbency, but with a smaller margin of victory.
    11 04 17 mikeb
    Peter Kent will take this suburban riding with a larger mandate than last time. He certainly is winning the sign war on the sides streets close the Toronto border.
    11 04 15
    This riding remains in play..note Harper is coming in to shore it up due to the Liberal candidate making this race close..This is a toss up
    11 04 16 will87
    @ Mario Ricci, The Conservatives also need alot of the 905 seats to go blue on May 2 if they want to gain the majority so I suspect Harper is going to spend some time in each of these ridings to shore up support.
    I also fail to see how, of all the things that the Conservatives have done or have been accused of doing, why KAIROS specifically is going to be the one that reduces the gap.
    11 04 16 burlivespipe
    Peter Kent's name factor got him this seat -- it has a solid track record of going liberal, even against the flow. While the demographics may suggest it's safe conservative territory, Harper's campaign, Kent's poor showing as environment minister (short as it's been) and the Kairos issue is going to reduce the gap where an upset is possible.
    11 04 16 Marco Ricci
    Harper held an event here today. Does that mean Conservatives are not yet totally confident the riding is secure? We'll have to see.
    11 04 15 Stevo
    Jamil: that is a poor analysis. For starters, Thornhill electorate is only about 35% Jewish. In addition, Susan Kadis was Jewish, and that didn't help her against the non-Jewish Peter Kent. Likewise, when Moshe Ronen ran for the provincial Liberals here in 1999, he was (is) not only Jewish, but also past president of the B'nai Brith, and he still lost to the non-Jewish PC candidate.
    Lesson: surprise surprise, Jewish voters do not always vote for candidates simply because they are Jewish. And they don't always vote based on policy toward Israel (and anyway, since when is Michael Ignatieff considered anti-Israel??).
    Karen Mock seems nice enough, but my hunch is that Peter Kent will hold this by a mile. Even so, I'll hedge on a prediction for another week or so.
    11 04 15 will87
    Jamil, By your logic one could make the argument that Kent should have never won this riding in the first place.
    11 04 14 Jamil
    With the Liberals running a strong Jewish candidate in an intrinsically Jewish, Liberal riding, it would be ridiculous for the Conservatives to hold on to this seat from an ideological point of view. Though Kent is a strong candidate, so is Karen Mock – it's going to be a surprise come May 2, and it's going to be a Liberal gain.
    11 04 13 Joe
    I agree with Sir J A. There is a significant Jewish segment in this riding, but by no means is the entire riding comprised of a Jewish majority. The overriding difference is that the non-Jewish people in the riding have similar political views as the Jewish population (lower taxes, tough on crime, etc.). I'm sure this has more to do with the wealth of the area than a monolithic block of ethnic voters. Either way, Kent will win, no contest.
    11 04 12 Sir J A
    I don't know how many times this needs to be said: There is NOT a Jewish majority in Thornhill. There may be a jewish plurality in the riding but not a majority. If you were to cross Yonge St to the Markham side of the riding that would be blatantly obvious.
    11 04 09 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Agree with the switch the CPC. Peter Kent is a star candidate in the only riding that has a Jewish majority and both he and the CPC have cheered on Israel. The CPC have solid support in the Jewish community, no chance o this switching.
    11 04 06 will1987
    The Liberal campaign has done a good job of getting their signs up on many street corners along Bathurst and Centre Street. The Kent campaign has been somewhat slow in this regard. In my neighbourhood (Brownridge) most of the lawn signs are Kent.
    As has been reiterated previously, the NDP simply is not a factor here. A suburban, high-income riding and I guess the parties stance on Israel doesn't win them friends here.
    11 04 07 Tony Ducey
    Kent's been an effective MP here since 2008, he wins the riding once again.
    11 04 06 A dude
    A few things to consider: Thornhill covers part of the community of Vaughn which elected a conservative to replace the Liberal MP in a recent by-election.
    On the upside for the Liberals they have a very strong candidate. The fact that Dr. Mock spent 12 years as national director of the League for Human Rights of B'nai Brith might play well with voters since Thornhill is one of only two ridings in the country with a Jewish plurality (36.6%, see Wikipedia).
    Also good for the Liberals is the strong Liberal tradition in Thornhill. I'd imagine this suburban riding had little sympathy for Dion and his carbon tax.
    11 04 03 M.Lunn
    The Liberals won this by 20 points in 2004 and 2006, but the Tories won by 10 points in 2008 thanks to running a star candidate Peter Kent as well as their strong gains amongst Jewish voters. At this point, it is the Tories to lose, however considering how early it is in the campaign, it is still a little early to call this one even though the odds favour it staying Tory.
    11 04 01 Ted J
    This riding will stay Blue in 2011, based on both Kent as the candidate, and moreso because of the policies.
    The Harper Income-Tax Splitting for Families plan will resonate well with voters in this above-average income riding, one with plenty of stereotypical suburban housewives.
    For the same reason, many of the Liberal pledges being made in this campaign won't sway the vote - people in this riding don't really care about a national daycare system, they'd rather have tax benefits and cold hard cash.
    11 03 28 Zehavi
    I believe that Kent will win this one by a handful. He has too much of a good reputation in parliament and in town. Also, he has much of the jewish support which is a majority in this riding. While Karen Mock might be somewhat known, Kent is far to popular to beat.
    11 03 27 John A
    While this seat will probably go to Kent, it will start to swing back towards the Liberals. While Karen Mock is a perfectly nice woman I don't know if she will be able to establish herself enough in the next 5 weeks to overtake Kent. However, to her credit, Karen has taken notice of the alienation of voters on the Markham side of the riding. If she acts on this she may be able to pull back some of those alienated Liberals to build some momentum towards the next election and bring this seat back into the red in time.
    11 03 27 Will1987
    I think Karen Mock is known to some in the Jewish community, but I am unsure of whether she is known by anybody outside of the Jewish community. As things stand right now, the Conservatives hold.
    11 03 27 Robert Lee
    Despite being a life-long Liberal, I would have to predict an easy win for Peter Kent. And the Liberal party also thinks so, or they would not have chosen Karen Who to represent the party.
    11 03 23 Johnny Quest
    Not even close - Kent crushes all parties. Well liked, done the work and lib candidate no one knows on Markham side of riding
    10 10 26 QS
    For those who think Thornhill has switched conservative they are obviously either biased or have never stepped foot in this town. This town is at best neck and neck liberal-conservative run. During the last elections this riding was the Outremont of Toronto; a natural liberal riding plagued by cynicism, that was ultimately won by a party who took advantage of the situation by using a superstar candidate. Both outremont and Thornhill was won by progressive candidates, not die hard CPC/NDP candidates. While credit cannot be taken away from Kent, it would be nonsense to claim he will easily win the riding once the libral party has pulled itself together. I am not saying Thornhill is a Liberal guarantee for the next elections, but I am certain it is not a CPC guarantee either. Thornhill will depend on how the Liberals do nationally, and how their candidate will perform during his/her campaign.
    09 12 26 A.S.
    Scoff if one must, but Peter ‘Scud Stud brother who bombed in St Paul's’ Kent did it--though it's odd that nobody's raised the advance-warning fact of Peter Shurman's provincial victory in '07, i.e. this was the spot instance of ‘Asper Tory’ (not to mention John Tory private-school-funding) strategy actually *working*. And with someone formerly in the Asper employ, yet. Though I'm momentarily inclining ‘yes’, whether it's it's a lasting dynamic remains to be seen--for all we know, Iggy's internationalist cred might re-invert the dynamic here even if it's a wet noodle everywhere else. Yeah, maybe--but when you're still but a blue blister in a sea of inner-GTA red, a Tory hold should never be taken for granted.
    09 09 07 R.O.
    Regardlessly of the ridings past liberal history as things stand today Peter Kent clearly has the advantage here for a number of reasons. he is high profile when compared to other york region mp's and a cabinet minister in the current government . in the last vote he also had alot of volunteers and supporters in the riding which contributed to his surprise victory here. The current conservative government has also expressed strong support for Israel which goes over well with the large number of jewish residents in Thornhill. the liberals on the other hand do not have much going for them in Thornhill and previous mp Susan Kadis is not even interested in seeking her old liberal nomination even though the liberals are supposedly doing better now that Dion is gone. and i really don't see them doing any better with a new candidate as she was suppose to be such a strong mp in that riding yet she lost it to Peter Kent on his first attempt.
    09 09 02 Thornhill Voter
    This was a bit of a surprise to see this riding go blue in 2008. Furthermore, the 5,000 spread between Kent and Kadis was an even bigger surprise. Unless the Liberals were to get anyone big to run here, I doubt that Kent would lose at this juncture. The NDP or Greens are not a factor in this high-income suburban riding.
    09 09 01 Stevo
    If the Conservatives could make up a nearly 11,000-vote deficit to win a 5,000-vote margin of victory, it would be silly to think that the Liberals couldn't make up that 5,000-vote deficit to eke out a win in the next election. On the other hand, as an MP, Susan Kadis was nowhere near the high calibre that Peter Kent is.
    Re: the Israel issue - does it really need to be stated AGAIN that Jewish Canadians are not single-issue voters? Nor are they generally Likudniks who are suspicious of more neutral candidates. Peter Kent worked extremely hard over 2 years to integrate himself into this riding and really get to know the people, of all ethnic and religious backgrounds. His efforts were generally small-scale and low-key, which is probably why the depth of his support was way underestimated until the election results rolled in.
    Now, the Liberals have nominated a very cerebral candidate who is a better fit for this riding than Susan Kadis was. I doubt Peter Kent is taking anything for granted, and I give him the tentative nod, but it's far too early to make a firm prediction in Thornhill.
    09 08 31 MF
    It's hard to say what will happen in Thornhill. Peter Kent certainly pulled an upset victory in Thornhill and remains high profile and certainly made inroads among traditionally Liberal Jewish and Italian voters. On the other hand, the Liberal campaign lost a lot of ground in affluent suburban areas just because Dion was such a flop. Susan Kadis is not running again, but Dr. Karen Mock, a leading human rights activist and highly respected member of the Jewish community, is running for the Liberals. We don't know what she'll be like on the campaign trail, however.
    09 08 24 wyatt
    Kent defeated a very popular incumbent in Kadis. This was one of few ridings that this site predicted incorrectly. Kent has also had a chance to increase his already impressive presence by being named Minister of State for the Americas. Look for Kent to hold the seat, and likely increase his margin.
    09 08 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Like Oak Ridges-Markham, this riding was honestly won over by the CPC and not won through Liberal voters sitting out the election. Certainly Peter Kent's star candidacy helped him win. Now his cabinet position, as well as his often strong pro-Israel/anti-terrorism rhetoric will play up well with his constituents. He will likely be back.

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