Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-04-28 09:22:00

Constituency Profile


Boughen, Ray

Collicott, Russ

Evanchuk, Noah Patrick

Shasko, Larissa

Ray Boughen

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • palliser (153/153 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    11 04 28 Ron F
    I think the new official prediction for the conservatives is wrong.As well as the demographic analyses in previous pasts I have put together combinations from party's internal data polls and local media polls. They have been broken down by the roughly 20% rural. 40% moose Jaw and 40% Southwest Regina. This is actually slightly biased towards the rural area and moose Jaw.I will translate the numbers to percentages of the whole riding so that they can be added up to make a total. I have also just included conservative and NDP numbers.In the rural area 12% conservative 5% NDP. In Moose Jaw 14% conservative and 18% NDP. In Southwest Regina 12% Conservative and 19% NDP. The totals work out to Conservative 38% and NDP 42%. This is a clear NDP victory.
    11 04 28 keefr
    Recent polls have pointed to a shrinkage of the CPC vote in all of the prairie provinces.
    Though this one is far from certain either way, if the NDP vote does in fact ‘show up’, this could be the other NDP gain in Saskatchewan on May 2.
    11 04 27 fd sup
    will a small increase in polls that the ndp been showing in Man/Sask... I can see a NDP win here... Liberal vote will go over to them in great numbers... giving them enough for a win....
    11 04 24 Ron F
    Mr. Lunn you are probably right when you predict Noah will take a slight majority in the city of Moose Jaw but get clobbered in the rural area. However your conclusion from this ignore a huge demographic reality.Southwest Regina contains a little under $0% of this riding and while conventional wisdom sees this as a close NDP liberal conservative split the reality is a high concentration of Apartment blocks and new ones have gone up. As I said in a previous post the large number of young service workers seem to be supporting the NDP. I won't repeat my previous analyses but a population perspective is needed here. More people live in one of the blocks on Rae st. than in the town of Penze. Count up all the apartment blocks of similar size and the number of towns in the rural section of the riding . The Liberal vote is not only disappearing in Moose Jaw. The Liberal Candidate has about 5 more signs than the Green candidate in Southwest Regina. Ray is outsigned 3 to 1 on private lawns . He will be clobbered by Noah in Southwest Regina. When this is added to your generally accurate analysis of Moose Jaw and the rural area this turns into a close but definitive defeat of the conservatives.
    11 04 19 Moose Jaw Bob
    I am going to have to state that this is going to be a very, very close riding.
    I do see a change between the last election - when Boughen stayed away from the Multi-Plex issue - to now when he features it on his web-site.
    I do know of a good dozen Moose Jaw fiscally conservative people not voting this time because of this issue and Boughen's association with it.
    With that said I do know that this one is being hotly contested.
    Big thing is - Ray is low key and really does not create a lot of excitement whereas Evanchuk is not afraid to get out there and make some noise.
    Will the voters go for it.
    Ray who is always quiet here and in Ottawa or Noah who is making a lot of noise here locally and might do so in Ottawa.
    Close but I would have to say that a lot of votes are swinging to the NDP as the Liberals are running an unknown that has garnered very little local enthusiasm.
    11 04 19 M. Lunn
    Although this riding is more favourable to the NDP than some of the others in Saskatchewan, the Tories now hold the incumbent advantage which they didn't last time around and considering the NDP at best will run even in Moose Jaw and get clobbered in the rural sections, the Tories should hold this. The Tories got 44% last time around and will probably get at least that if not higher so even if many Liberals strategically vote NDP to defeat the Tory incumbent, it probably won't be enough, although it could make it close enough to give the incumbent a bit of a scare.
    11 04 16 Marco Ricci
    It's possible that the Conservatives are worried that this riding could be vulnerable since they sent Senator Pamela Wallin here this week, and Harper is visiting Saskatchewan tonight.
    11 04 13 Ron F
    This riding seems to be misunderstood in terms of its demographics. The Cathedral district is strongly new Democratic with greens and liberals and a few conservatives. the Lakeview area has about 40% ND with liberals and conservatives sharing the other 60%. The far south residential tends to be Conservative with a strong liberal second. The new apartment blocks in Southwest reginal have service workers who either don't vote or would vote NDP or green party. Between Regina and Moose Jaw the towns tend to be Conservative with a small ABC component. In Moose Jaw South hill trends to New Democrat as does the city centre. The North area becomes more conservative until north of Thatcher with a conservative liberal mix. the town of Caronport has a 800 strong conservative teacher and student stronghold. When this all studied the reality is that whichever party can get there various demographics out wins. The current reality is that there are in fact more new democratic voters than staunch conservatives out there. Fearful new democrats voting liberal may happen again but not if the NDP pulls out there vote. The tories do have the advantage that thee vote tends to come out but they have some over confident types who may sit home. I think this is more likely to go NdP given the analysis above.
    11 04 10 NDPCopyfighter
    Despite the NDP signs popping up all over the place, It will be a close match as Noah is putting up a good campaign so far an Ray isn't anywhere to be seen, but there are too many staunch conservatives here and in moose jaw and unless all the people who would vote liberal come to the NDP side this will be in the Conservative's bag like 2008.
    11 04 09 Moose Jaw Bob
    This riding could be a very close riding.
    It all depends where the Liberal vote goes to.
    Right now, do to the large numbers of social conservatives out and about and pushing their weight around on really silly issues there is a very strong chance that there could be a backlash.
    Social conservatives are openly attacking Liberal supporters and that might lead some to move from Boughen - he picked a lot up last time - back to the Liberals or NDP. Both would be disastorous for Boughen.
    To say that the Moose Jaw Multi-Plex debate is over and there might be a tendency to vote for the home town boy is probable but there are still a lot of deep emotions out there. If the NO people do get together and decide to make a stand Boughen is done. It is that simple.
    11 04 03 Ron F
    Ray is a likeable fellow but most in Moose Jaw do not support him that strongly after his record as Mayor and backbench MP. He has great support in the towns between Regina and Moose Jaw. The reason his won last time is that South West Regina had a significant Liberal vote. With more Apartments in that area and better turnout from the NDP base This is a likely NDP pickup.
    11 04 03 M.Lunn
    One of the NDP targets in Saskatchewan and this riding is somewhat more favourable to them. They usually do well in Regina, but the problem is they get clobbered in the rural portions thus making the other three Regina ridings unwinneable. This one is somewhat different is much of the population which resides outside Regina lives in Moose Jaw which is more of a bellwether type city than solidly NDP or Conservative. The advantage the Conservatives have is last time around it was an open seat and this time around they hold the incumbency. It is the Conservatives to lose but still to early to say.
    11 04 03 jeff316
    Lots of comments from partisans on both sides makes for great reading ('Just another star NP candidate that's only a star candidate to the NDP' is a pretty good one, and accurate too!) but also makes for very poor analysis. The fact is, Evanchuk is a pretty good candidate with a well-financed and well-publicized campaign; but his appeal, although deep, is also very narrow and the NDP isn't doing well-enough provincially or federally to make this a win. Boughen will keep this riding unless the Conservatives really tank (which they won't), but it will be a lot closer than he or his supporters realize.
    11 03 31 Jeff
    Quote from Northwest Rebellion: ‘Ray Boughen has been an invisible MP in Palliser, and I haven't seen or heard from him at all since the election was called! Who stood outside on the picket lines with the locked out workers of XL Beef? Who engages with the young professionals of Moose Jaw as they try to put their city back on the map after decades of political neglect? Noah Evanchuk, that's who!’
    One of the big problems with NDP die-hards is that they go to all NDP and Union events and then apply what they hear as 'common knowledge' to all other Canadians. I can see why you think Ray Boughen is invisible. And as for not hearing or seeing him since the election was called - what 3 to 4 days in.
    Conservative hold - another 'star' candidate for the NDP that's only a star to the NDP.
    11 03 31 Lowlander
    The Conservatives may be polling high provincially, but that includes ridings where they pump out huge majorities. The provincial numbers are all but useless in the (very few) ridings that are actually in play - one of which is Palliser. Local campaigns have less impact than they used to, for sure, but they still make a difference. This may ultimately end up a Tory hold but Palliser won't be a cakewalk.
    11 03 30 The Mongoose
    Lot of delusional Evanchuk campaign volunteers here. Boughen won by over 10 points last time. The Tories are over 50% in Saskatchewan polling. Local campaigns barely move the needle, though hard--core NDPers might wish otherwise. Unless the Conservative national vote share drops below 35%, this riding isn't even in play. Easy Tory hold.
    11 03 30 Northwest Rebellion
    It is a ridiculous FARCE to listen to the ‘professionals’ say Palliser will be a Conservative landslide! Even with 13 out of 14 seats currently held by the Cons, we haven't heard anything from them! Ray Boughen has been an invisible MP in Palliser, and I haven't seen or heard from him at all since the election was called!
    Who stood outside on the picket lines with the locked out workers of XL Beef? Who engages with the young professionals of Moose Jaw as they try to put their city back on the map after decades of political neglect? Noah Evanchuk, that's who!
    he doesn't need to swing Con votes his way. All he needs to do is convince people that their votes will MATTER.
    Noah for the win!
    11 03 30 Jeff
    The NDP keep calling Nettie Weibe a star candidate, but they fail to see that she's a star only in the NDP. She lost the provincial leadership and then didn't bother to run as an MLA, (never a good sign), she lost to Trost in 2004 in Saskatoon-Humboldt (with Pankiw around yet no less), she lost SRB to Carol Skelton in 2006, lost again in SRB to current MP (and then newcomer) Kelly Block. There may come a time when she sneaks in, but Kelly is just a damned hard-worker and pleasant to speak to. As Kelly is now the incumbent it's just going to be worse for Nettie. Finally, Jack Layton from Toronto just does not sell well in Saskatchewan. I predict yet another disappointing night for Nettie, but don't worry - she's got 'seniority' in the NDP ranks so she'll be back again and again.
    11 03 30 Lowlander
    I'm not convinced this will be a Conservative hold. It's been reliably Conservative the last three elections, but there's a core NDP vote here and - more importantly - Harper's brand is tarnished and weaker than it's been since he took over leadership of the Cons. Add in an incumbent MP who's an almost complete nonentity and, in Evanchuk, a challenger with some energy, and I think it's a real possibility that Palliser will see an upswing in both voter turnout generally, and NDP vote specifically.
    I'm certainly not saying it'll be easy for Evanchuk and the NDP. I do think it'll be a lot closer than the Conservatives think, and I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Evanchuk will squeak out a win here.
    11 03 30 F-L
    With both Jack Layton and Stephen Harper coming to the riding in the very early campaign I don't think this riding can be put into the safely Conservative column. With the Evanchuk campaign being fully cash funded to spend the election limit, the appearance of the NDP and CP leaders in the riding a day apart and the Liberals not having the usual strong candidate I think the odds are this one is going to go Noah and the NDP.
    11 03 30 Alicia
    Calling it for the Tory's really? I can't believe that! Noah Evanchuk is a well known and well respected lawyer in Regina. He has been working hard to connect with the people in the Riding for MONTHS and has gotten an overwhelming response. People in Palliser are ready to have real representation in their riding and Noah Evanchuk is the man to do it. Sorry but you are sorely mistaken on your prediction here. This seat is going NDP and for good reason.
    11 03 30 Deron
    This will be closer than I care for, but will be an NDP win.
    Like it or not, Moose Jaw is an NDP town. Young professionals play well in the city, and an aging population respects the people-centred value of the NDP brand. Barring some exceptions in Sunningdale and VLA, the majority of the north-east and especially the north-west parts of the city will vote NDP. Ditto for the major parts of South Hill.
    Regina is a net win for the NDP, as it has been in the past. There's not a lot of debate here.
    The swing will come in the rural part of Palliser. Here, the issue isn't if Noah can make any headway, it's if the Conservatives can convince the population there's still value in their brand. With all the scandals, double-dealings, and broken promises from the government, there is a general unrest toward the Conservatives and this will be a tough sell. One third of Canadians still do not trust Harper, and Boughen, though nice, has been little more than a silent backbencher -- and moreover, wants to remain one. Noah's energy and new ideas coupled with Boughen's complacency and Harper's erosion of trust spell an NDP victory.
    11 03 28 Chris
    If the NDP didn't think Palliser was winnable, they wouldn't have made it the second stop of their national campaign. Jack spent the morning in Regina, and is now on his way to Moose Jaw. Vote splitting has been the only thing keeping this seat in the hands of the Conservatives. The past three elections have seen high profile candidates for both the NDP and Liberals. However that isn't the case this go around. The Liberals have all but abandoned this riding. I expect Noah will squeak through and re-take the seat for the NDP.
    11 03 26 Pennyfeather
    Honestly, I don't understand how Palliser comes, every election, to be deemed ‘too close to call’ here. The Tories have taken it three times now, with the vote spread growing every single time. With Saskatchewan booming, NDP fortunes more generally, certainly at the provincial level, are in virtual freefall. Moose Jaw is happily getting the new Civic Centre that NDP spokespersons still rail against, and will have a very popular former mayor to vote for again. And frankly they will. The growing Southwest corner of Regina, a rather upper middle class development, means more, not fewer natural Tory electors in the riding. This is clearly a Conservative win. As in 2008. As in 2006. As in 2004. It will not be close. No one will be staying up late waiting on the final polls. It is not one to watch. It is not too close to call. Period. Fortunately for Mr Evanchuk, the provincial NDP will soon have 4 years on its hands to try and find a leader more instep with the spirit of today's Saskatchewan, and he may very well have better luck there.
    11 03 23 Aniconist
    Boughen hasn't been particularly impressive as an MP, but posters here talking about Evanchuk's ‘great campaign’ and ‘huge presence in the community’ need to get out more. That presence has largely translated into presence at NDP and activist events, where Evanchuk's exposure is primarily to established NDP voters -- and, as the record shows, there have been fewer and fewer of them in each of the past three elections. If he's not swinging votes, he can't win. What is more, suggestions that Palliser will become a priority for the national campaign don't show much awareness of what the ground game looks like out here: Jack Layton is a net handicap to an NDP candidate in most of Saskatchewan. I'd say that the worst thing that could happen to Evanchuk would be for Palliser to become a target of opportunity at the national level. Boughen's vote will go down, I think, but not enough for the Prairie Dog's favourite lawyer.
    11 03 17 EP1975
    Noah Evanchuk wins this one for the NDP. Noah Evanchuk has put together a great campaign and made a huge presence in Moose Jaw (the most important part of this riding). Evanchuk should be able to take on the Tory candidate on equal financial terms, and has been a huge presence in the community over the past year or so (in Regina he was just named Prairie Dog Magazine's best Lawyer).
    Quite a few people in Southern Saskatchewan are upset with the ‘dirty dozen’ Tory MP's - even hardcore Conservatives acknowledge that Saskatchewan's representation in Ottawa has been weak. Even prior to that, Boughen was on the bubble, and is facing a really great candidate who has been running hard.
    Everything is trending towards an NDP victory in Palliser.
    10 12 01 wyatt
    Ray Boughen improved upon the late Dave Batters '06 total, and there's no reason to think he won't do so again. He won with a nice little margin in '08, and will likely increase that next time around.
    09 09 17 MDF+
    Nick's comments actually confirm 90% of the previous poster's comment. Palliser is actually the least rural of the four Regina seats, with only 10% of the vote coming from the rural polls.
    Now, the previous poster did overstate Moose Jaw's support for the NDP based on the last election. However, the last election saw a contest between two former Moose Jaw mayors - a rematch with the same results as last time. In the previous two elections, when the Conservative candidate was from Regina, the Tories did not do as well in the Jaw (once against another Reginan, once against a Moose Javian.)
    09 09 14 Nick J Boragina
    A quote from another poster: ?Palliser is NOT a rural riding. Is is about 50%, the NDP voting city of Moose Jaw, 40% the southwest corner or Regina and only about 10% a few hobby farms in between Regina and Moose Jaw?
    I love it when people shoot off at the mouth, cite numbers, and don't do any research. Lets dig down and find the real numbers.
    According to Elections Canada's poll by poll results...
    Regina voted as follows
    NDP - 4665
    CPC - 4422
    Lib - 3606
    Grn - 729
    Moose Jaw as follows
    CPC - 6586
    Lib - 1287
    NDP - 5118
    Grn - 647
    And the Rural Areas as follows
    CPC - 3151
    Lib - 596
    NDP - 1082
    Grn - 204
    What have we learned?
    This riding is 41.7% Regina, 42.6% Moose Jaw and 15.6% Rural.
    Moose Jaw voted CPC. Regina came within 250 votes of doing the same.
    09 09 07 Scott D
    Likely a Conservative hold. The NDP support in the riding has continually dropped since it was first created and few signs show that this is going to change.
    09 09 05 MDF+
    I wonder where Stevo is from?
    Outside of Wascana and Denesthene-Missinippi, most of the remaining federal Liberal vote in Saskatchewan tends to go Conservative as a second choice, therefore the weakness of Dion tended to work to the advantage of the Tories in most of Saskatchewan.
    As to Observer's question, there are two main reasons the NDP lost Saskatchewan seats over the last few elections.
    First, like any government, the Calvert NDP had baggage which tended to hurt the federal party as well. The NDP's best federal showings in Saskatchewan over the past several elections have been when they were out of power provincially - peaking at 10 of 14 seats in 1988.
    Second, the last NDP MP for Palliser, Dick Proctor, made a terrible mistake in opposing the last redistribution here. He did have legitimate concerns. Several of the rural seats were stupidly drawn - including a Moose Jaw seat that would have been a thin strip from the US border to the outskirts of Saskatoon. But the redistribution would have established six principallly urban seats in Regina and Saskatoon. Five of those seats - and possibly the Moose Jaw seat as well - would have been much stronger prospects for the NDP.
    09 09 05 Stevo
    Observer - are you for real? I could probably list ~75 ‘urban middle-class seats’ that voted Conservative in the last couple elections, if I cared to do so. You think every one of the Conservatives' 143 seats look like Little House on the Prairie??
    As to Palliser - if the NDP couldn't attract enough Liberal voters to cross over during the Liberals' worst popular vote in Canadian electoral history (or even get close - the spread between CPC and NDP in Palliser was over 10 points), then it won't do so in the next election either.
    09 09 02 LRT
    I am expecting an NDP pick up here, especially if there is a long campaign or the minority government survives past the fall. Palliser is a rural/urban seat, which has the city of Moose Jaw and parts of South Western Regina.
    I'm hearing that Ray Boughen is out of favour with the Conservative establishment but they won't make any moves against him because he is personally popular (former mayor of Moose Jaw), so I would be somewhat suprised if he can put together a strong team - as others have pointed Boughen is an older candidate, and a lot of Conservative activists will probably work for other candidates who are more highly favoured and will have more time to grant favours to them.
    The NDP appears to running Noah Evanchuk (he has not been nominated yet, but so far is the only challenger). Evanchuk was part of the Ryan Meili campaign for provincial NDP leader and has tapped the same volunter base - so he has a very experienced, but also young and energetic core of people around him. All this has supplied Evanchuk with an excellent fundraising machine, and gained all kinds of goodwill with the national party. Palliser will likely be a priority seat for the NDP's national campaign.
    But let's assume nothing game changing happens in the National campaigns, Evanchuk can win this seat on the strength of his team - his volunteer base should be able to identify and get the NDP vote to the polls better than prior NDP candidates in the same riding, and much better than Boughen. Another factor in Evanchuk's favour (and the NDP in Sask generally) is that people should be starting to forget about the perceived problems of the former Calvert government.
    I'm also hearing some rumblings from small-c conservatives that Harper's bailouts and Brad Wall's potash forecasts are causing some discontent - that vote probably doesn't migrate to the NDP, but may stay home on election day.
    09 03 01 Observer
    To be frank I had never been in Palliser or even Sask. I thought Palliser was a rural riding because of what EP said. Anyway, if Palliser is a urban riding why in the hell it voted for the Conservatives? Very few middle-class urban ridings vote Conservative. I don't understand how a urban riding in a former NDP stronghold province can vote right-wing.
    When the NDP was gaining seats and increasing its vote share all over the country, it lost all the seats it had in Sask in the last 3 federal elections. Anyone has an explanation for this?
    09 08 26 Farmer-Labour1934
    Palliser is the second most urban riding in Saskatchewan after Wascana. Some people forget that Moose Jaw is a major centre in Saskatchewan - and a beautiful city as well - and the federal NDP vote in MJ has not fallen below 35% in the last three federal elections. Palliser has the lowest Conservative vote by percentage of all the ridings in Saskatchewan in 2008. The longer the wait until the next election the more the riding will swing in the NDPs favour as the honeymoon period of both the Ottawa Conservatives and the Saskatchewan Party provincial government comes to an end. 1,653 votes migrating from Conservative to NDP would swing the seat. It will be tough - as the Conservatives will remain popular in Sask. but this will be one of the first seats in Sask. that any ebbing of the Tory tide will leave in the NDP's hands. The Tories will bleed votes to the Liberals as Dion is out of the way and was very unpopular in Saskatchewan and the NDP as the majority of voters in Saskatchewan who switch votes do so between the NDP and the Conservatives. It will not be a landslide but it will go NDP.
    09 08 25 DL
    Contrary to what some people seem to think, Palliser is NOT a rural riding. Is is about 50%, the NDP voting city of Moose Jaw, 40% the southwest corner or Regina and only about 10% a few hobby farms in between Regina and Moose Jaw. The NDP only lost 42% to 36% last time and since then Tory support has declined across the country. The likely NDP candidate in young lawyer Noah Evanchuk and its likely that this will be the number one NDP target in Saskatchewan. The octogenerian Tory incumbent has made no impact and is rumoured to be considering retirement.
    09 08 24 Observer
    I completely disagree calling Palliser for the Conservatives. It is right that Palliser is voting strongly for the Conservative Party in recent times but don't forget the NDP tradition in this riding. A small swing from the Liberals and Conservatives can put this riding in the NDP column. I am sure the NDP leadership are now going to focus much more in rural Sk.
    09 08 24 EP
    With the NDP becoming more and more of an urban party, it cedes its traditional territory in rural Saskatchewan ridings like this one. This leaves the Conservative Party with no competition. Unless a regional dissent party appears and starts to field federal candidates, this rural Saskatchewan riding wills stay in the “solidly Conservative column for the foreseeable future.
    11 04 28 DL
    I think you're making a very big mistake calling this for the Tories. Its actually more winnable than Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar. The NDP lost it by less than 10% last time with a bad candidate and no money. This time they are spending the maximum, plus the 17% the Liberals got will evaporate into low single digits and that wll go NDP en masse. Noah Evanchuk has this one sewn up!
    11 04 28 Efrem
    It's interesting - though not really surprising given its composition - to note the stability of the NDP vote in Palliser; always hovering a fairly tight margin of error around 11,000 since 1997. If the NDP are to take it back they'll need to do better, absent a surprising fall in the Conservative vote. Which has been difficult given the demoralised state of the Saskatchewan NDP vote over the past decade; as the party has found out to its cost, having good candidates really isn't enough. Still. Perhaps things will be different this time; as in so many other places the only question worth asking is whether that rising Layton tide will lift all NDP boats.

    Navigate to Canada 2011 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

    Canada Federal Election - 2011
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Milton Chan, 1999-2011 - Email Webmaster