Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014


Prediction Changed
2014-05-29 13:27:00

Constituency Profile


Ahmad, Mariam

Cauchi, Franz

Daniel, Lan

Martins, Cristina

Schein, Jonah

Stein, Daniel

Venuto, Nunzio

Young, Troy

Jonah Schein


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Davenport)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 11 Initial
    ThreeHundredEight.com has this going to the Liberals (70% chance). As much as it saddens me to see Jonah Schein unseated, I think that's almost certain, at this point.
    14 06 10 Jeff G
    The NDP drop in Toronto support has to come from somewhere, and Davenport is the most likely place where it'll begin on election night. The liberals are going to retain government, and threaten for a majority, because of Andrea Horwath's horrendous performance during the campaign.
    14 06 07 Toronto Star/Forum Poll
    Davenport (polled May 31, 446 people, accurate to within 5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20) Liberal Christina Martins 44 per cent, New Democrat Jonah Schein 38 per cent, Progressive Conservative Lan Daniel 11 per cent, Green Daniel Stein 5 per cent.
    14 06 05 Marco Ricci
    A couple of points in response to WL: 1) When you say that a Liberal prediction means people are 'dreaming in technicolour', you forget that most of us posting here are trying to look at the riding objectively by the numbers. There may be campaign workers who post here with their own partisan views, but other prediction sites such as 308 & Canadian Election Atlas also have Davenport in the Liberal column right now. That is because of provincial polling trends showing the Liberals way ahead of the NDP in Toronto. It could turn out to be wrong, but so far it is based on numbers, not just people making stuff up. 2) It's true there's no danger of a Conservative victory here, but that was true in the last election, and yet people switched parties in this riding (from LIB to NDP). The Conservatives don't have a chance in most of the 416 seats, but there are voters who may want the Liberals to have an extra seat because so far polls show they are the only party that can beat Hudak. So voting Liberal in Davenport would give the Liberals an extra seat in their column at the end of the night that can help block the Conservatives.
    14 06 05 jeff316
    Davenport Lib / DL (same person) is predicting the right outcome, but the analysis is uninformed and partisan. There are no parallels to York South Weston, where the perception was that Paul Ferreira did the work he did in the community simply to get elected. Schein is the opposite - he is perceived as someone who got elected to actually affect change. He has strong community street credibility. NDP won this riding last time because Schein attracted swing Green and John Tory voters into his camp based on this reputation - you'll notice the Liberal vote was steady from 2007 to 2011. Schein will lose this election, largely because Wynne is the leader that most downtown NDP voters would love to have. The question will not be should the NDP run with Schein next election, but having been booted in favour of an opportunistic candidate that's from outside of the riding, that's less committed to the local issues and is clearly of a lesser quality (even Liberals admit this - in the debates it is no contest), will he want to run again? With a young kid, I'd say no.
    14 06 04 GTY
    Support for the Liberals in Davenport has been, and continues to decline as their aging base of support dwindles. Gentrification has helped the NDP more than the Liberals. Jonah Schein has turned out to be a strong incumbent and it has solidified his support and added to it. The Conservative support is insignificant, but they may gain a couple percentages at the expense of the Liberals.
    Those people who are extrapolating the small sample parts (416 area) of provincial polls should be aware that they have high error rates, and don't take into account that where the NDP is competitive, they actually gain in support.
    14 06 02 Marco Ricci
    Two new polls were released today - one from Abacus & one from EKOS. Both show NDP support down, and the Liberals way ahead in the 416 with the NDP a distant 3rd. I think this riding is now in play for the Liberals. Eg. Abacus has OLP at 49, PC at 25, NDP at 17 for Toronto. EKOS has similar numbers for 416 - 47 OLP, 24 PC, 20 NDP.
    14 06 01 WL
    I believe those hoping for a Liberal victory in Davenport are dreaming in technicolour. NDP supporters have no reason to vote Liberal here. There is no fear of a Conservative victory in Davenport so stopping Hudak does not come into the equation. Even past Liberal supporters may not wish to reward the party for their recent scandals and corruption. A good number of Liberal voters may stay home. This is a clear NDP hold.
    14 05 29 Teddy Boragina
    Unsure why so solid Liberal predictions when nobody has really come up with any evidence to back it up. The math says the NDP should hold here.
    I also want to point out to take caution with lawn sign counts
    The NDP consistently wins south of the rail line/Dupont while the Liberals do so north of it. Just because all the streets in a 1-KM circle from your house in the riding have signs for one or the other does not mean that side is actually winning.
    14 05 29 Canadian Election Atlas
    I have to disagree with the new prediction of the Liberals picking up this riding. While at the beginning of the campaign, the NDP was tanking in Toronto, recent polls have shown they have gained most of this up and are now polling where they were in the last election in Toronto. Poll averages have them at 23% in Toronto, while they got 26.6% last time. However, Liberal numbers are also down in Toronto. Last election they got 47%, they are now at 41.5%. With Davenport's demographics changing recently, plus recent elections showing a clear trend to the NDP in Davenport PLUS the advantage of incumbency means this riding will likely still go NDP.
    14 05 25 AD
    I see no reason the NDP can't hold onto this seat. They will have an advantage this time around and I can identify no discernible collapse in NDP support in Toronto.
    14 05 22 seasaw
    The Liberals should be able to regain this riding. Polls show NDP is losing ground to the Liberals and a little bit to the PC's, this was once one of the safest Liberal seats, and now NDP has a platform that appeals to more suburban and rural voters, so this seat will go back to the Liberals.
    14 05 22 Alice
    This riding is going to go back to the Liberals. I think you're going to see a big swing. This is directly related to the collapse of the NDP in Toronto.
    14 05 22 DavenportLib
    This riding could be very similar to what happened in York South Weston. Where the NDP beat the Liberals in 2006 but subsequently and in every election after that, the Liberals have been squeaking by, in a few hundred votes. Beating the NDP in 2007 and 2011 and most likely 2014. Now, if Martins beats Schein, this could happen to, Schein too. The NDP must think long and hard whether to keep schein afterwards, to rematch Cristina and for how many elections afterwards. The NDP riding association, must be wise to switch candidates, for next election, if they are smart. NDP, you don't want to have whats happening in York south Weston, happen to Davenport do you?
    14 05 22 DL
    The NDP campaign is getting way too much help from their federal partners of Andrew Cash strong political machinery. The Davenport Liberals candidates have always worked separately in terms of the federal team and provincial teams with their own teams of people. Charles Caccia had his own group of people formed, separate from Tony Ruprecht. While, Ruprecht had his own supporter team, you see that Mario Silva was totally separate and had his own formed group of supporters. Now, you see Cristina Martins having her own team of people working for her two. The NDP has a lot of overlap, you see it in their literature and at events too. Schein and Cash are stuck a the hips. Schein seems to be nowhere, without Cash's help. In terms of an update in the davenport riding, we see that Martins is close to overtaking Schein in terms of polling and the Sign war, which is bad news for the NDP. Many of the NDP are really disappointed with what has happened with Andrea Horwath. If the Liberals win this riding, the NDP only have themselves to blame. Heck, even Andrew Cash might not be enough to save Jonah at the end of the day. The only way the Liberals will probably not win this is, if there is a major shift after the leaders debates going to NDP or the World Cup soccer happening on June 12th drives down the ethnic votes of the Liberals.
    14 05 18 MJA
    This riding should be safe NDP: a gentrifying square of inner-city Toronto with a growing cadre of young, creative-class types who have now almost eclipsed the old-school Portuguese and Italian voters who elected Ruprecht and Silva for literal generations.
    But then Horwath went and saddled all of her Toronto candidates with a platform that does literally nothing for them. Suddenly, the NDP is anti-transit, lukewarm on social justice, and far more interested in cutting middle-class marginal tax rates than in actually making a difference for the people who have historically counted on them to stand up for their rights and interests.
    Poor Cheri DiNovo, in adjoining Parkdale--High Park, is having to twist herself up like a pretzel in order to make this conceit stick. Jonah Schein, a less-talented campaigner and less visible MPP (even within his own district), is in trouble.
    Not that Christina Martins is much of a treasure, but she seems to have learned her lesson after all, and has been running a much more vigorous, youthful and ecumenical campaign this time around.
    A year ago this would have been safe NDP. Now, I wouldn't hold my breath.
    14 05 18 A.S.
    Yes, long before Rob Ford, Ruprecht was the ruthless master of door-to-door retail politics--though his mastery started to come awry in the end. And now, Schein has incumbent advantage; however, compared to '11, Martins has head-start advantage--after all, even being a late-nominated apparent goner after the federal Andrew Cash landslide, she scared Schein and nearly matched Ruprecht's final, close-call '07 share. So, as the only ONDP gain in the 416 in '11 (and their first in a general election since '90), a litmus for where Horwath's inside-out heartland populism will take (or break) the party deep in hipsterville in '14...
    14 05 11 Jeff R.
    Davenport will be a tight squeeze again but in reality it is getting more NDP with each passing election. If Schein can make it through this one, the Liberals (provincially, at least) will be done and dusted for the next few elections.
    What is happening here is what happened to the High Park riding about 8-10 years ago - old Liberal-leaning voters are selling up and the people moving in are couples and younger families that are more receptive to the NDP.
    The 'Horwath Albatross' comments are the stuff of politcos and not the general electorate. Plus, the demographics, priorities, and dynamics of a a downtown riding like Trinity Spadina are very different from a largely family-oriented riding like Davenport; even if her positions are unpopular in Trinity-Spadina, in Davenport they are more palatable.
    14 05 16 DL
    Interestingly, Martins is winning most of the side streets in the sign war in the northern areas of Davenport but not much signs in the northern major streets and roads, however in the southern areas at this point, not many Liberal signs can be seen on either major or side streets. Internal polling shows that this riding is still up for grabs but will be close.
    14 05 11 DL
    The Davenport Liberals in this riding is making a strong push at the moment, and with Kathleen Wynne more left policies, it plays well in this riding. However, if Jonah does win on election night, it will be because more of Andrew Cash helping out Jonah with his strong brand and political machinery, rather than him doing it more by himself. Going back to the Tony Ruprecht days, in this riding, Tony was the most ruthless smart canvasser, and epic campaigner Davenport have ever seen. 12 hour days, 7 days a week, knocking on doors in the riding at least two or three times. For Cristina Martins to win, she better start using more political smarts, and canvass the riding much harder than Jonah is doing. Shake more hands and kiss more babies, even in unfriendly NDP territory. This was one of the reasons Ruprecht kept getting Re-Elected election after election. The Liberals must make a stronger presence in the NDP polls to be successful.
    14 05 11 R.O.
    The ndp mpp Johan Schein should be able to hold this riding . the ndp seem to be gaining ridings the last couple of years and don't really see them losing ridings that they won by larger numbers. the riding also went federal for ndp so seems to be moving more to the left .
    14 05 11 Jeff R.
    Davenport will be a tight squeeze again but in reality it is getting more NDP with each passing election. If Schein can make it through this one, the Liberals (provincially, at least) will be done and dusted for the next few elections.
    What is happening here is what happened to the High Park riding about 8-10 years ago - old Liberal-leaning voters are selling up and the people moving in are couples and younger families that are more receptive to the NDP.
    The 'Horwath Albatross' comments are the stuff of politcos and not the general electorate. Plus, the demographics, priorities, and dynamics of a a downtown riding like Trinity Spadina are very different from a largely family-oriented riding like Davenport; even if her positions are unpopular in Trinity-Spadina, in Davenport they are more palatable.
    14 05 07 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    Jonah Schein is a good guy who is young and has a community activist background that plays well in Davenport and has some legislative accomplishments, in terms of tenants rights and unpaid internships. Unfortunately he is also stuck with the 'Andrea Horwath albatross' that doesn't play well in inner city Toronto. He could win either if Horwath changes course or on his personal popularity, but this is the most vulnerable seat for the NDP in Toronto.
    14 05 06 Davenport Lib
    The Liberals have a great opportunity to win back Davenport. Residents in this riding have supported the liberals strongly in the past. Many still are willing to give them another chance. However, not having the candidate image on election signs, lawn signs for the Liberals hurts them here. Many residents in this riding seem to like having the picture on the candidate on election signs. So the NDP have the edge there. The bad location of Cristina Martins Campaign office seems to hurt her here too. She should have it on a busy congested area, such as past Liberal and NDP campaign offices. Martins needs to shake hands and connect with as many voters as she can to win this riding. Jonah Schein hasn't done will in terms of serving his constituents. He has rarely sent out any literature during his term about what he has done in the community. Why should anyone cast a ballot to resend him back to Queens park? if he doesn't serve his constituents in this way. The Davenport Liberals must use more online and new social media in this election too. The Martins campaign must also connect with some of Tony Ruprechts past supporters. This is because many of Tony Ruprechts voters are still in the riding but they seem to be disengaged by the new Liberal Martins team here and some left politics because Tony left politics. However, if Martins can get her supporters and some of the past Tony Ruprecht support out, in this election, she will beat Jonah Schein.
    13 09 14
    This will be a very interesting race, as the liberals are sure to pour lots of resources into this one (this will be a key pick-up in their quest for a majority). Rumor has it that Gerard Kennedy may be tapped to run in this seat for the grits - in that case, it would be a sure win for them. If not, this race will be very much up in the air. Wynne, however, is quite popular in downtown Toronto (more so than Dalton), and that in itself makes this more likely to flip back to the liberals next time around.
    13 05 15 Davenport Lib
    Davenport can easily swing back to the Liberals next provincial election. Premier Kathleen Wynne being left of centre is definitely eating away the NDP vote here. The recent Justin Trudeau phenomenon and his Federal Leadership race has revived the party and definitely helps. With all the negatives and everything that happened in the 2011 provincial campaign for the Liberals, I think the N.D.P and Conservatives underestimate the Liberals. The Ontario Liberals nearly won another majority, just short one seat. The N.D.P were surprised of the narrow margin they won by last time in Davenport. Especially Schein having such a three month head start on the campaigning. Meanwhile, Martins starting much later. Even so, the Davenport Liberals just loss by over a thousand votes, making this a swing riding now.
    13 05 03 mayuus@gmail.com
    Actually I live in Parkdale High Park and have never been interested in Clean Trains, since I can get a ride to the airport using a token. I have travelled extensively, and have taken buses and trains to airports in various cities and have not notice that either one or the other is more helpful.
    I think that his NDP incumbent has only been in for one term and can be easily disposed of, contrary to previous remarks.
    13 02 06 MJA
    Although the Liberals are shoring up their support in Toronto (especially having elected a Toronto-based leader), Davenport is dicey as potential pickups go.
    For one thing, people seem to care a whole lot about the Clean Trains Campaign. The Liberals, as a party, are on the wrong side of the issue (as far as local residents are concerned), and unless they're prepared to nominate someone who'll buck the party line on the subject, the NDP and Greens will spend most of the campaign thwapping beating them with this particular stick.
    We might also consider that, in order to win Davenport, the Liberals only have to beat the NDP. (The Conservatives are a non-factor who usually can't even win back their deposit and sometimes even come fourth.) Although Kathleen Wynne is uniquely positioned to make this sort of appeal (coming from the centre-left herself), it's historically been very difficult to dislodge NDP incumbents in favour of Liberals, barring a complete meltdown in the style of 1995.
    But most importantly, we need to talk about how Davenport has changed. It's true that Italians and Portuguese still make up a significant proportion of the riding's population--but it's less and less true every year. Even the 2003 census only pegged them at ~30% of the population, and the number has decreased significantly in the interceding years.
    Far from its roots as a blue-collar Catholic bloc, Davenport is now one of the youngest, one of the most diverse and one of the most white-collar ridings in the entire country. Despite this, the local Liberal party seems to think it's still 1976, and that if they can just get their candidate to visit a few Catholic churches and shake hands at the Knights of Columbus, the Italians and Portuguese will be queued up around the block at the polling station.
    It doesn't work that way any more. You don't just need to appeal to a dozen or so Portuguese community leaders: you need to appeal to the West Indians in the riding's north, to the young urban professionals in the southern tip, to the bohemian hipsters along Bloor and in Dufferin Grove, to the growing Spanish-speaking population (who, I might add, are now more prevalent than Italian-speakers), to the crunchy NIMBYs along the railway corridor...
    It's a much tougher job than it was twenty years ago. And the local party just doesn't seem to get it. The NDP does.

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