Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Don Valley West

Prediction Changed
2013-02-13 18:35:00

Constituency Profile


Ahmed, Khalid

Boyd, Patrick

Burrows, Brock

Fliss, Louis

Kabitsis, Dimitrios (Jim)

Porter, David

Waigh, Rosemary

Wynne, Kathleen

Kathleen Wynne


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Don Valley West)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    14 05 24 seasaw
    The way things stand right now, I'm going to have to give Wynne the edge. Things however, can change rapidly in campaigns, especially the Ontario Provincial campaigns. Right now, it seems that Wynne will either win a majority or a strong minority, but there's still a chance, a slight chance, but still a chance, that things may tilt in Hudak's favour. If that happens, this'll be one of the few 416 ridings that'll go blue. I know people have said the Tories won a close one federally, but they also had a dud as their candidate. Porter is no dud, he's got the potential of being a future finance minister, attorney general and may be premier. I know Wynne is very popular, but if you look at the riding history they vote for the future not the past. Current Prediction though Liberal hold.
    14 05 24 Mr. RN Raja
    The Premier is well loved here and is a household name in her community even before she went to QP. This woman is a symbol of what a politician should be and the new breed of political activists need to study Kathlyn Wynne's political style of engagement. She engages people whether is the Mall at Thorncliffe Park of at the neighbouring Tim Horton's. Kids just love this woman.
    The PCs have no shot once Wynne is on the ballot. The NDP guy is viewed as a political opportunist and he knows the benefits he received from the liberals. He is no match for Kathlyn.
    This will be a win for Kathlyne by a wide margin.
    14 05 23 MH
    Today I made my first trek along Sutherland, Leaside's longest residential street. The sign count is Wynne 12, Porter 6. Organizers for both campaigns have work left to do.
    14 05 17 Marco Ricci
    Oracle Poll: Don Valley West -- (May 14th-May 15th)
    Excluding Undecideds: LIB/Wynne = 57.1%, PC/Porter = 35.1%, NDP/Ahmed = 5.2%
    Including Undecideds: LIB/Wynne = 44.9%, PC/Porter = 27.6%, NDP/Ahmed = 4.1%
    14 05 15 Hussain
    I live in Thorncliffe park high rise apartment. That area votes alone enough to send Kathlyn
    Plus she is so popular. Every small kid knows her name. She have done so many good things to this community. She is helping the neighbourhood big time. Recently initiated
    Cricket ground @ valley park middle school. I will stake everything for this seat will go Liberal.
    14 05 15 The Jackal
    While not as safe as the other two party leaders in their ridings. The premier will hang on here but it is very possible her support in DVW could dip below 50%.
    14 05 13 Marco Ricci
    Paul, this riding will probably be the one to break the recent trend of Premiers losing their own seats. Wynne won this riding by nearly a 2-1 margin in 2011 (58% vs. 30%). She also won it with 50% of the vote back in 2007 against PC Leader John Tory before she was even a leader herself. It's also still a pretty Liberal riding federally. The Liberals only lost it federally in 2011 under the Ignatieff wipe-out, and even then the Conservatives only won it by a small margin. Although Wynne may lose the election overall, there would have to be a massive collapse in support for her to lose her own seat.
    14 05 11 A.S.
    Hard to believe that DVW was once deemed a 'safest Tory seat in Toronto' sort of thing; as now, under Wynne, it's more of a safest *Liberal* seat sort of thing--though the ghost of Toryism past is still evident in the Lawrence Park/Bayview/York Mills polls; so an upset is theoretically possible. But not given the present placeholder--sorry, Wynne's no complacent Peterson '90 figure. And given how much of the erstwhile 'Wynne left' is (as per Rick Salutin) put off by Horwath's so-called 'Ford populism', it isn't likely that much token left-vote will be hiving off in the NDP direction, either...
    14 05 11 MH
    Ms. Wynne took this by a wide margin last time, and it seems highly unlikely that she'll be challenged this time. The Liberals may well lose office, but Don Valley West will stay Liberal.
    14 05 09 Dr Bear
    Sorry Paul but the Liberals are not sinking in the polls but tied with the PC party. Threehundedeight.com is predicting (as of this writing) 40 seats for the PC and 46 for the Liberals. That would be a gain of three seats for the Pc party and there are many other seats that are easier victories for them than DVW. If Ontarians were as anti-incumbent as you suggest, then why didn't Ottawa South (and most other byelections) go PC? Many went NDP but ones that theoretically should have been PC were lost. It's far more likely that despite all the scandals and problems with the Liberals, the PC party (I would suggest it's more Hudak)are just not appealing to voters. No, this will stay Liberal unless the PC party starts polling in double digit difference to the Liberals.
    14 05 07 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    DVW may have more 'top 2 percenters than any other riding in the province, but in spite of their support for increased taxes on the rich Kathleen Wynne is very popular in her constituency and will have no problem hanging on.
    14 05 07 Paul
    We'll see a Progressive Conservative pickup here. This campaign will be 40 days and Wynne is sinking in the polls. The same riding is Conservative federally and there is a very anti incumbent mood in the country.
    The last 5 provincial and territorial elections have all seen Premiers defeated in their own ridings.
    Pauline Marois, Quebec
    Daryl Dexter, Nova Scotia
    Eva Arriak, Nunavut
    Christy Clark, British Columbia
    John Charest, Quebec
    There is a lot of scandals on Wynnes shoulders. Incredible debt, taxes and economic mismanagement and the NDP stand ready to peel away lots of the leftist support from the Liberals.
    14 05 04 monkey
    This is the premier's riding so while premier's like David Peterson have lost before, Kathleen Wynne is very popular in her own riding. There is a greater than even chance she will lose provincewide, but she is fairly safe in her own riding. Now next time around if she is defeated, then this may be up for grabs, but not this time around.
    13 09 14
    Wynne is the sitting Premier. There is no way she will lose her own seat.
    13 06 28 seasaw
    I'm changing my previous prediction and calling this one TCTC at this time. Why ? The PC candidate David Porter is a star with potential to be an important cabinet minister. Looking at the riding history in the Davis years, a big chunk of the riding was represented by Bette Stephenson, smaller chunks by Roy McMurtry and Dennis Timbrell ( all important cabinet minister ). The majority of Peterson years Brad Nixon, Christine Hart, and the last pre amalgamation time David Turnbull, Dave Johnson and Bill Saunderson ( all important cabinet ministers ). In 2003, when Liberal win was inevitable, Wynne won because of her potential. In 2007, choice was between an important minister or Leader of Opposition, we know who they picked.Wynne will win here if the Liberals are leading or close in polls, otherwise look for Porter to take this.
    13 02 16 seasaw
    Though not such a safe Liberal seat, we have to call this one the way things stand now. The Liberal support is considerably down, but in the 416 area, they're still leading. Until things change it'll be silly to predict this one for anyone else.
    13 02 10 KS
    Safe seat for the Liberals. Wynne is very popular in this suburban/urban Toronto riding. She defeated John Tory by 11 points in 2007 and Andrea Mandel-Campbell by 28 points in 2011. Now that she is premier, I doubt the PCs would pose a serious challenge in this riding.

    Navigate to Ontario 2014 Home | Regional Index | Submission

    Ontario Provincial Election - 2014
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2014 - Email Webmaster