Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Eglinton-Lawrence


Prediction Changed
2013-02-16 14:36:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Colle, Mike

Gallezot, Thomas

Martin, Robin

McCann, Lucas

Sniedzins, Erwin

Incumbent:
Mike Colle

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Eglinton-Lawrence)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    * MIKE COLLE
    2075254.15%
    ROCCO ROSSI
    1285733.55%
    GERTI DERVISHI
    37639.82%
    JOSH RACHLIS
    5751.5%
    MICHAEL BONE
    1520.4%
    JERRY GREEN
    1460.38%
    SUJITH KUMAR REDDY
    790.21%
    2007 Result:
    * MIKE COLLE
    17,40243.23%
    BERNIE TANZ
    15,25737.90%
    KARIN WIENS
    4,03910.03%
    ANDREW JAMES
    2,8717.13%
    TOM GELMON
    2350.58%
    RINA MORRA
    2290.57%
    FRANZ CAUCHI
    1300.32%
    JOSEPH YOUNG
    900.22%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1934054.17%
    1144032.04%
    357010.00%


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    14 05 24 A.S.
    99.233.52.111
    'Based on previous provincial elections, any conservative who tries to run here would be toast.'
    ...uh, what about 2007? Thanks to a trumped-up ethics blip against Colle and the John Tory private-schools tactic going over well with the Jewish electorate, it came close to being the only PC steal in Toronto. But Colle quickly redeemed himself, rammed Rossi in 2011 and has (now with an assist from son Josh on City Council) played the municipal-minded left-Liberal card as effectively as one can--and he faces none other than Premier Wynne across Yonge. So, 2014 is shaping up to be the anti-2007 for Mike Colle--even a Karen Stintz or *harrumph* Deb Hutton couldn't keep him below 50% at this rate.
    14 05 07 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    70.49.168.176
    Mike Colle is popular in Eglinton-Lawrence. He clobbered 'star candidate' Rocco Rossi last time. Also the Israel wedge issue doesn't apply in provincial politics and the Jewish vote stuck with traditional Liberal voting patterns in 2011.
    14 05 15 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    70.49.168.176
    Mike Colle is popular in Eglinton-Lawrence and crushed 'star candidate' Rocco Rossi in 2011. The Tories don't have a high profile candidate and he should win this again by a very wide margin. Also Jewish voters remained much more loyal to the Liberals provincially in 2011 than federally as there is no Israel 'wedge issue.'
    14 05 10 Cade
    69.157.53.193
    Based on previous provincial elections, any conservative who tries to run here would be toast. The same was true federally during the 2011 election. The current federal MP is Harper Finance Minister, Joe Oliver who received 22652 votes in 2011, which was more than the 20752 that Colle received. Still projecting a Liberal advantage, but this Big-L Liberal riding has some small-c conservative tenancies to which Harper and Ford appealed.
    14 05 04 monkey
    174.114.16.226
    This may not be as solidly Liberal as 20 years ago, but Mike Colle is a popular MP and if a strong candidate like Rocco Rossi couldn't take him down, I don't see why it would be any different this time. It went Tory federally, but Joe Volpe was a controversial MP who had a record for sleaziness which Mike Colle doesn't as well as its quite possible the NDP surge might have pushed some Blue Liberals over to the Tories federally. If the Liberals fall to third provincially, then I may change my prediction. Also the two big groups here are the Jewish community and Italians. The PCs have made inroads amongst the Jewish community, but they don't rack up the same large margins amongst them as their federal cousins do while amongst the Italians the OLP still is out in front even if federally they have swung towards the Tories (at least in 2011, not sure it will stay that way in 2015).
    13 09 14
    198.200.89.110
    Rocco Rossi, the Tory Star Candidate, flopped here last time. The NDP's presence is minimal since this is a fairly affluent part of the city. That's all not to mention Colle's popularity.
    The demographics, the location and the candidate are all in the liberal's favor. This will remain in the liberal column.
    13 02 28 seasaw
    99.225.1.213
    Five reasons why this seat shall remain Liberal 5. Mike Colle has been an MPP since 1995, he's well known and liked and he's worked very hard on his constituents' behalf 4. NDP doesn't have much of a presence in this riding 3. With an adequate campaign, the Tories can add anywhere between 12 to 21 seats to their seat count, good enough for a strong minority or slim majority, an adequate campaign will win them 0 seats in 416 2. With a good campaign, they ( the PC's ), along with a 416 issue, they can win 3-6 seats, this one won't be one, and a very good campaign they can win 7-11 in 416, again not this one. 2.In order for the PC's to take this they will need an excellent campaign, a good candidate, a good local team and a 416 related issue, and at the moment they've got none of the above 1. Two words comes to mind about the probability of the PC's getting #2
    13 02 15 LFC Ottawa
    70.30.21.69
    The PC's threw a ton of money and a strong candidate at this seat last time, and it was not enough. Colle wins it again.



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