Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014


Prediction Changed
2014-05-09 10:00:00

Constituency Profile


Bailey, Bob

Falby, Andrew

Gillis, Anne Marie

Shaw, Kevin

White, Brian

Bob Bailey


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Sarnia-Lambton)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 05 28 James
    NDP has a bigger chance of winning as a split with the PC and Liberal with the NDP leader being here on the start of election
    14 05 27 James
    Brian is gained a lot of support Hudak is not doing the job for the incumbent ,with Andrea been in the area not just this election but previous watch for a change
    14 05 26 observer
    Called one of 10 closest races to watch. If Bailey wins it will be because of the absolute collapse of the Liberals. Gillis got the nomination because no one else wanted it (2 years ago it was a parachute candidate) she appears to have no support, no money and no hope. I expect the STOP Hudak movement will be strong but may not be enough. Still TOTC.
    14 05 20 R.O.
    Bob Bailey is one of those mpp's that some people can't see why he has appeal , sort of low profile and average yet done well in the riding as an Ontario pc candidate . ndp likely to come second here but unlikely to win the riding . only chance it go ndp be a by election type scenario like we saw in other ridings where ndp can focus all effort on one riding they have chance in .
    14 05 18 Jeff316
    Sarnia-Lambton is the Kingston-and-the-islands of southwestern Ontario. Year after year people look at Sarnia's industrial base and think the riding could swing NDP but this isn't your father's Sarnia, and even if it were, this riding is not just Sarnia. The NDP will continue to do well here - particularly given the Liberal collapse in rural Ontario - but this riding is too rural and too conservative to elect an NDPer
    14 05 11 A.S.
    One of the few seats where the NDP (even while polevaulting into 2nd)actually did *worse* in 2011 than 2007--the culprit being an independent bid by former federal candidate (and municipal councillor) Andy Bruziewicz. (And much as with the Lib-vs-NDP strategic vote splits of 1999, the perception of schism might have brought the raw united vote total even lower than it otherwise should have been.) But the same NDPer (Brian White) is running again; and, unencumbered, he remains very much viable despite said setback--especially if one is to believe the NDP-leading-in-SW-Ontario polls...
    14 05 05 Numbers Pundit
    The numbers and trends do not support a move away from the Tories. The Liberals, despite having held the seat from 1999 to 2007, completely collapsed in 2011 - trend of rural/agricultural anger toward the McGuinty government, provincial service and infrastructure reductions in Sarnia, and the wind-turbine debate in the corridors north of the 402, near the lake, and the St Clair River. Federally, Pat Davidson bested 50% in 2011 in a riding that had comfortably sent Liberal Roger Galloway to Ottawa 4 times, 3 of which with vote tallies above 45%. Bailey should be able notionally guard his 2011 result and likely grow it.
    14 05 04 monkey
    Bob Bailey may not be the best MPP, but the PCs won this over 20 points last time around and all polls showing them either at or slightly above in Southwestern Ontario, so even if the NDP picks up much of the Liberal vote and the PCs decline a bit, they will still hold this.
    13 08 02 KS
    With the NDP polling high in Southwestern Ontario, this is the type of riding that the party should target. Some projection models show that the NDP can take this riding from the Tories if current numbers continue.
    However, right now I will give this riding to the Tories, simply because they have an incumbent and a presence in the riding. If the NDP can nominate a strong candidate, then this will be TCTC.
    The Liberals will come third in this riding, whether they form the government after the next election or not.
    13 05 14 Keen Observer
    When you look at Bailey's margins of victory in 07 and 11 with near disastrous central campaigns, this next time out should be even easier for him. Look for a big win for the PC's in this riding.
    13 04 05 Iknowstuff
    Bob is in full campaign mode clearly running for his political life. Not well liked in parts of the riding and loved in other parts. If the NDP can increase its vote in the city he might be in real trouble. If the Liberals run another
    13 03 17 seasaw
    Bob Bailey has won here the past couple of times with terrible PC central campaigns. Both were by comfortable margins. Unless something weird happens, he should be able to hang on.

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