Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Scarborough-Rouge River


Prediction Changed
2014-05-29 13:31:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Balkissoon, Bas

Cho, Raymond

Khan, Amir

Shan, Neethan

Singh, George

Incumbent:
Bas Balkissoon

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Scarborough-Rouge River)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    * BAS BALKISSOON
    1523741.87%
    NEETHAN SHAN
    1308835.97%
    KEN KIM
    683718.79%
    FELIX LIAO
    4571.26%
    GEORGE B. SINGH
    4551.25%
    RAPHAEL ROSCH
    1660.46%
    DANIEL WALKER
    1500.41%
    2007 Result:
    * BAS BALKISSOON
    22,30765.06%
    HORACE GOODEN
    4,96014.47%
    SHIELA WHITE
    4,69113.68%
    SERGE ABBAT
    1,2763.72%
    JOSEPH CARVALHO
    5691.66%
    ALAN MERCER
    4861.42%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    2047064.56%
    768824.25%
    193606.10%


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    14 06 10 Jeff G
    70.49.168.130
    Yes, the NDP won this federally, but that was on the back of a Liberal collapse. With the Liberals polling at near 50% in Toronto as a whole, where the NDP are evidently sagging, there isn't a chance in hell this will go anything but red. Furthermore, if York South-Weston, Davenport, and Trinity-Spadina are predicted to turn red, with Beaches East York and Parkdale-High Park not far behind, this riding is pretty much a non-factor. It won't even be close.
    14 06 06 James McAllister
    65.92.76.142
    You show Scarborough Rouge River as a Liberal hold but I think this is incorrect. Based on the sign wars, the Libs are running third and it will either be a gain for the NDP or a gain for the PCs.
    14 06 05 Larry
    70.27.14.224
    Could be a surprise here with three well known candidates. Bas and Neethan battling for the progressive vote, Raymond could come up the middle. Raymond is a popular ward councillor and travelling around the Riding, he has a large number of signs in traditional Liberal and NDP areas. Anyway one to be watched on election night it will be close!
    14 05 30 A.S.
    99.233.52.111
    Cho's candidacy has a puzzling last-kick-in-the-can vibe about it--if he finishes ahead of Neethan Shan, it'll be due to external rather than internal circumstances. And Balkissoon *is* a strong incumbent; it's more out of federal Rathika-mania spillover that he came to be endangered in 2011--right now, it'd take, once again, external circumstances (the Liberal floor *really* dropping out) to unseat him. Said 'external circumstances' could still happen; thus, I'll withold...
    14 05 29 Arden
    24.212.218.226
    I think the NDP has a chance of taking this seat. I don't see the supposed collapse everyone is alluding to of NDP support in Toronto, at least not in the polls I've been looking at. It'll be close but I think this will go NDP.
    14 05 24 Mr. RN (Raja)
    99.244.187.57
    The NDP has been active in the riding and deserves a chance to really represent the interests at QP. This is not a traditional PC hold and so my prediction is that votes will read through Bas and decide to toss him out.
    14 05 16 Matt L
    198.84.200.116
    Probably the only three-way race in Toronto. This will be a fun nail-biter.
    14 05 15 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    70.49.168.176
    Until 2011, this was Liberal auto-pilot territory, but with then NDP making inroads in the large Tamil community Scarborough-Rouge River became more interesting, with Rathika Sitsabaiesan winning by a big margin, with some spillover for Neethan Shan provincially. A win here would be very satisfying for the ONDP strategists, who have been banking on appealing to Ford-style populism in the outer-416.
    However I'm giving the edge to the Liberals now.
    14 05 14 SC
    142.205.241.254
    Balkissoon & Raymond Cho both are excellent candidates with years of experience but this riding will go for Neethan Shan and has nothing to do with his talent.
    Neethan Shan is following exactly the same path taken by Rathika Sitsabaiesan. There is a big Tamil population in this riding and if you can have them vote for a certain candidate it will guarantee a victory. Just like Rathika, Neethan is focusing completely on Tamils (i.e. visiting ERAA supermarket) and not wasting his time on rest of the constituents.
    14 01 03 Initial
    24.67.48.39
    This is a very close seat. The Liberals are falling, though, and the NDP is gaining. In the gas plant scandal and the handling of the budget, Horwath and the NDP are likely to take Liberal-NDP races. Also, the NDP has the federal seat, and will likely try to also take the provincial one due to the fact that Scarborough tends to be a bellwether area.
    13 09 14
    198.200.89.110
    This will be a close race between the liberals and the NDP, pending their candidate. Neethan Shan is popular here if he decides to run again, but Bas has incumbency advantage. Bas's popularity, combined with the liberals subway flip-flop should manage to keep this one from turning orange.
    13 03 01 Kman
    70.26.156.57
    Incumbent Liberal Bas Balkissoon is popular here. But this riding can become interesting if NDP president Neethan Shan decides to run here again. The PCs would become more competitive here as they have nominated councillor Raymond Cho.
    13 02 16 seasaw
    99.225.1.213
    This one may go down to the wire, but it is a safe bet to say that Bas will once again prevail. He is a low key, hard working and likeable MPP, and that should be enough to put him on top.



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