Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:24:59

Constituency Profile


Benoît, Patrick

Dufour, Pierre

Ferland, Luc

Gagnon, Mario

Hébert, Steven

Saganash, Romeo

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (168/172 polls, 99.05% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Romeo Saganash

   (4/172 polls, 0.95% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Christine Moore


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15 10 17 NJam101
I'm quite sure that Romeo Saganash will be re-elected. He may not get quite as many votes as in 2011 but the Bloc, CPC and Liberal contenders will be quite split.
This is a riding that is like Kenora in Northern Ontario where predictions are difficult due to it being a huge area with diverse populations. Romeo Saganash is Cree from Waswanipi First Nation and speaks Cree, French and English. He will do well yet again among Aboriginals, First Nations and Inuit which together make up a large percentage of the population here. I think he will do well in the largest community which is the City of Val-d'Or and Town of Malartic. Mining municipalities tend to vote for leftist parties and the NDP brand will still be quite popular there. As for other towns (Chibougamau, Matagami, Senneterre, etc.) I just don't see any threatening competition for him. Most francophones tend to like and respect him.
This riding has voted Liberal and Bloc this century but I don't think either of the candidates from those two parties has a chance this time.
15 10 17 Tes
Personally I think this riding will still be going to the NDP, mostly on the popularity of local MP Saganash. CPC is not competitive here because their previous candidate, who was a local municipal politician, is not running again. LPC also not historically competitive here. Neither party will split the federalist vote and give the Bloc a win.
15 09 30 Teddy Boragina
A week or so ago, a dozen or two Quebec ridings were changed to the NDP here at the EPP. Since then, the NDP has dropped in the polls in Quebec.
There are a number of ridings currently predicted to go NDP that could go to another party if polls continue to drop. They are:
Pierre-Boucher, Salaberry, Abitibi, Beauport, Charlesbourg, Rimouski, Louis Hebert, and LaSalle.
In this riding in particular... the NDP might have 'an aboriginal candidate' but they had one last time, and the math saying this riding could be in danger has thus already taken that into account.
15 09 22 A.S.
Trivia: this is the only seat where, in 2011, the Bloc incumbent finished in *third* place (behind a popular-municipal-mayor Conservative). Maybe that degree of humiliation's less likely now that ex-MLA Luc Ferland is holding the Bloc banner--but, come now; Ferland may have represented Ungava, but this is *Saganash* we're dealing with. (And luckily for him, it's all been forgive-and-forget re Saganash's rocky caucus--and for a brief probationary moment, non-caucus--history.)
15 09 07 #ABC51
If only Monkey knew who Romeo Saganash was, he would realise that the very idea of the NDP winning the Aboriginal vote in this constituency is beyond laughable.
Easy hold for NDP.
15 08 05 Dr. Bear
Saganash is personally popular in this riding and I would argue that any personal problems he may have had would be overlooked by the voters. Coupled that the other parties haven't been making much of a dent in the NDP's Quebec numbers and you can see why this will easily go NDP once again.
15 03 28 monkey
Romeo Sanganash is a strong MP and will likely hold this that being said this riding has a large Aboriginal community who the Liberals tend to do well amongst so if the Liberals chose a star candidate they could pick this up.
15 03 25 JFBreton
Ce sera une course intéressante. Roméo Saganash se représente pour le NPD. Pierre Dufour, directeur général du CLD du coin est pressenti comme candidat libéral. Saganash devrait l'emporter dans une lutte serrée. Il devra, pour ce faire, compter sur une grande part du vote autochtone et du grand nord.

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