Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-09-22 09:47:16

Constituency Profile


Chalhoub, Claude

Desjardins, Karine

Dubé, Matthew

Lessard, Yves

Maher, Michael

Yansané, Fodé Kerfalla

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 673411.47%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (234/234 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Matthew Dubé


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15 10 18 ShadyH
It is hard to clearly figure this one out based on national or provincial polling. If we were to aggregate based on the last election using the current polls (like 308 and tooclosetocall), then this easily stays with the NDP. But those sites used the same method 4 years back and predicted an easy Bloc win. So I wouldn't rely heavily on past results. The population of this riding is very homogeneous white francophone (more than 90%). Most of the towns in this riding have a history of strongly backing sovereignty. This is the kind of riding that almost always goes for the PQ provinicially and the CAQ in the off year. I am not saying this is a lock for the Bloc, but I believe they have a clearer chance to win it than the NDP, especially since they are running a real candidate and ex-MP.
15 09 20 A.S.
Wonder if the 2001 NDP advantage would have been even greater had Le Gros Cave not made his independent run--though it's not like Matthew Dube could have managed Phil Edmonston's 2/3 of the vote in the 1990 Chambly byelection. (Which, believe it or not, remains the ballot-box high water mark for the NDP in Quebec.)
15 09 08 R.O.
This is a riding where the bloc is running a former mp . Yves Lessard had been mp from 2004-2011 . and had been winning the riding rather easily until ndp won in 2011. So not sure what effect this will have on overall race if bloc is running a well known candidate. There was also an independent candidate here in 2011 who got 11% and not sure where his votes will go now ? the race here might be too close to call for time being
C'est un comté où le bloc est en cours d'exécution un ancien mp . Yves Lessard a été mp de 2004-2011 . et avait été gagner la circonscription plutôt facilement jusqu'à ce que NPD remporte en 2011. Alors je ne sais pas quel effet cela va avoir sur l'ensemble de la race si bloc exécute un candidat bien connu. Il y avait aussi un candidat indépendant ici en 2011 qui a obtenu 11 % et ne sait pas où sa voix iront maintenant ? La course ici pourrait être trop proche pour appeler pour le moment
15 08 29 Mr. Dave
Matthew Dube may have been one of the surprise winners on election night in 2011, but he has not shown himself to be a liability to the federal NDP caucus.
With the recent polling results showing NDP support around the 50% mark, Dube will be returning to the House of Commons once more in October.
NDP hold!
15 06 09 Observer
Selon La Presse, on a des nouvelles ce matin que Gilles Duceppe sera de retour comme chef Bloquiste. Mario Beaulieu s'est rendu compte que sous son direction, le Bloc Quebecois va nulle-part et risquait d'etre éffacé du carte électorale, donc, on a arrivé a une enetente qu reverra M. Duceppe a son ancien position.
Est ce que ca changera beaucoup? Avant d'accepter, l'équipe de M. Duceppe a prs une sondage, et a découvert que Le Bloc attirera 3 fois des voix sur son directon qu'a celle de M. Beaulieu. Sans doute Il pourrait attirer de l'argent et des candidates, possiblement des vedettes de son anien équipe.
Alors je crois que le Bloc poura faire in impacte non-negligible cette élection, en reprendre des sieges en Monterégie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Mauricie, Lac St Jean et en quelques circonscriptions en Estrie.
Restez branchés.
According to La Presse, there is news today that Gilles Duceppe will be returning to the leadership of the Bloc Quebecois. Mario Beaulieu had come to terms with the fact that the party was going nowhere fast under his leadership, perhaps even looking a a complete wipeout, so they arrived at a deal that would see M. Duceppe return to his old job.
Will that change much? Before accepting, Duceppe's team commissioned a poll and found that the Bloc would attract 3 times as many votes under Duceppe than they would under M. Beaulieu. No doubt he will also bring in some much needed money, and some candidates, perhaps many from his old caucus.
Therefore I believe the Bloc could pose a threat to win seats in Montéregie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Maurice. Lac St Jean and some ridings in the Eastern Townships.
Stay tuned
15 04 23 B.W.
While the new riding of Beloeil-Chambly is considered to be a Quebec nationalist riding with ex-BQ MP Yves Lessard trying to regain his seat that he lost in the 2011 election, I think those days of the BQ being the default party for Quebec nationalists are over though they would likely retain support from the hardline sovereigntists. Soft nationalists who are not interested in another referendum nor want to revist the debate on the national question have found an alternative with the NDP since their left wing and progressive policies are more sympathetic towards Quebec nationalism. As one of the five McGill students that were elected in the 2011 Layton wave, MP Matthew Dube has done a good job representing the constituents in riding of the soon to be defunct Chambly-Bourdas riding, and should carry on doing his work in the new riding of Beloeil-Chambly. Matt deserves to be reelected.
15 03 29 Dr Bear
The BQ are running the former MP, defeated in 2011. This area is a swing region provincially, so I think it could be a BQ/NDP swing. Watch for the BQ to target this one. The liberals are also distant contenders but they have better chances elsewhere.

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